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This an early-but-not-too-early projection of the 2020 White Sox based on the different scenarios of how free agency could unfold for the team. Point is, we have a good young core costing next to nothing and ample money to spend, so let's see how this could play out. First off, a baseline of how the 2019 White Sox stacked up against AL playoff teams, going by fWAR. I also added 2018 Twins in there as a case study of a team making significant improvements without marquee off season moves: Next comes free agency, and it could play out in a number of ways depending on how much confidence you have in this FO and JR's willingness (or unwillingness) to open his checkbook. I am taking some of the common names thrown around in different Soxtalk threads and projected contract value: Now projecting fWAR and win totals for each scenario: The fWAR projections may be optimistic for some and not aggressive enough for others. Basically this assumes: - Anderson and McCann will slightly regress - Bullpen is a wash between Colome, Marshall and/or a few others regressing but Herrera, Fry improving, as well as adding a high leverage arm - Abreu, Giolito, and Moncada producing at the same level, Robert and Madrigal producing at league average for 80% of the season - Eloy taking a step forward and two of ReyLo/Cease/Kopech giving you 180 innings at 4.50 ERA. Also, obviously, Sox would be making some trades, but it's too much of a reach to project any trades, but you could safely assume any trade will either have net neutral or positive affect on the WAR total, unless we have another Alonso-esque blunder. The result is surprising, but the Sox, on their current path, would be a better team than some folks are anticipating even with a sad but not out of the possibility free agency showing. How are we getting there? Between DH/RF we were at an awful -4.8 WAR. By replacing those positions with league average players, we're adding 7-8 wins to our 72 win season. On top of that, bench play should improve with Leury and Mendick anchoring. Adding 2 SP arms and with some natural progression from the group of ReyLo, Cease, Kopech and Eloy, this is suddenly an 85 win team, if not more. TLDR; even with a disappoint offseason (though seriously hoping Hahn would have more stones), with a couple of breaks going in Sox favor and some mid-season additions, this team could at least fight for a WC spot in 2020.

can he bunt?

This makes no sense.

Sign Grandal, Castellanos, & Wheeler. This lineup would be significantly better than last year: Anderson, SS Moncada, 3B# Abreu, 1B/DH Jimenez, LF Grandal, C/DH/1B# Castallanos, RF Robert, CF Collins, DH* / McCann, C Madrigal, 2B

Hey there I'll jump in! Boylen is a huge pile of crap. If this team was ready to compete, he was the worst choice to lead them there. Classic Bulls bullshit, and I hate everything.

Idk why but any time a report includes some sort of anecdote about the team like 'They saw plenty of him over six years inside the AL Central and have always been a fan' my bullshit meter immediately goes off.

They're not going to add core players at every need. But they can maybe add a core guy in RF (would have to be thru trade IMO) and at C (with Grandal), plus in the pitching department (Wheeler/Ryu/MadBum and Betances). Encarnacion can split time with Collins who plays C/1B/DH. McCann with Grandal becomes a backup/Giolito personal catcher. Then EE is a one year stop gap to Vaughn who is a piece of the core.

Great post. This is what I’ve been trying to articulate for a while now. We have an opportunity to take a massive leap forward with a good offseason, even if we don’t add any of the top three guys. The key is being aggressive right out of the gate. While I’d love to add Cole or Strasburg, I don’t think we can afford waiting around until February and risk coming out empty-handed (which is the likely outcome). We need to go hard after guys like Wheeler & Grandal from the get-go and try to close out deals during or just shortly after the Winter Meetings. I don’t care what anyone says, there is zero reason we can’t land both those guys and Hahn needs to finally deliver. If he does, I think we’ll actually competitive baseball in 2020.

To me it seems obvious that the Sox could be the primary suitor for Encarnacion, as not that many teams need help at DH, and our need is glaring. We absolutely cannot go into 2020 with the DH being Palka/Collins and hope to have any chance at contention. Encarnacion is still a solid hitter, and would offer lineup protection in the middle of the order. He's aging, but still has pop and takes walks. I see no risk in a one year deal for 10-12 million.

Robert has a floor of 2 WAR next year even if he really struggles at the plate. I personally think he doesn't struggle too bad in the early months. Definitely exciting.

If Robert comes up in May, he would a shot at a 3/4 WAR season. He was one I was being more conservative with. Heck if his fielding at CF is as good as advertised, he'd be a 2 WAR player even with below average offense. But with his raw offensive approach and injury history, I thought it made more sense to be more conservative with his projection. Anything more we could get from him only makes the 2020 team stronger.

Bulls/sato are good

There's no way he ends up at 50 over 4. He probably gets somewhere near 16 a year.

Wheeler will be the tough one. If I had to bet, I'd say he will be the free agent with the most teams interested in him. Everyone needs pitching and most cant afford Cole or Strasburg. He's the next prize.

Sanchez/Engel/Garcia are all welcome back as backups. They are all ideal for that role. And yes...Sanchez needs to settle for a few less bucks than arbitration would call for.

I'd be pretty happy if they could pull that off. Solid moves across the board. Though, I'd flip Grandal with Abreu.

Works for me. Sold!!!!

If he’s a guy they like, they should most definitely pursue him right now. We can afford multiple impactful additions.

I’m not going to pretend I’ve watched much of Castellanos playing D, but he did drastically improve in most, if not all, metrics in RF from year 1 to year 2. Granted he was still poor in RF this past year, but is it not possible a guy his age continues to improve in his 3rd year at a new position? We don’t need him to be a good OF’er per say, he just can’t hurt the team in the field. DRS- 2018: -19, 2019: -9 UZR- 2018: -12.9, 2019: -5.2 Even just getting those 2 #’s to 0 and he’s probably a 3.5 WAR player.

In what world is a wRC+ of 129 at the DH spot a meh addition? As the third or fourth best piece of an offseason, he’d be a tremendous addition.

100% Encarnacion. I’ll take Edwin’s 129 wRC+ over Moustakas’ 113 despite the positional flexibility Moose provides.

I wouldn't be so sure. I'd give it about a 10- 15% chance that Abreu isn't back next year, even with the QO.

Castellanos gets a big meh from me. If he gets cheap enough (2/$30M or 3/$45 type deal), he starts to make a little sense. But he's not a RF, and a career 112 wRC+ DH is pretty underwhelming, especially if you're paying him a lot. And then he hits with the wrong hand. Sox need good hitters, and Castellanos I guess fits the bill. I would need to reserve judgement to see how the rest of the roster shakes out if the Sox signed him. On paper, I think he's a pretty poor fit.

If he has Cuban blood does that mean he's really like 33?

This is what I have been saying to every person immediately saying 'Typical White Sox' to every second tier move. The Sox are already much deeper now than they were when they were signing Melky Cabrera, they could get away with it now. They won 72 games playing people who have no business being professional baseball players at 4 positions. Even just average players there should give you a bump to the 80-85 range and you just hope for continued improvement from young players from there. Aim high, but don't do nothing.

That would require Ricky actually giving them the green light.

This might be a little out there, but I think that Castellanos might be an Abreu replacement. They might be thinking of him at 1B. I actually prefer Castellanos to JDM

Who in the world ever hinted Castellanos would even get a 100 million deal let alone 200?

If Avi could stay healthy he would probably still be in Chicago

I really want him on this team.

Not every position can or needs to be filled with an uber expensive FA. Encarnacion stands to be a 4 win improvement at the position over last year, and will allow flexibility for better FAs.

Sounds good to me. Go cheap at DH/RF, and spend big $$ on at least 2 if not 3 starting pitchers.

After how poor the DH position has been, Encarnacion would be welcome veteran stability. Substantially better than any in house option and he should not require more than a one year deal.

Yes, EE seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.

I recall reading somewhere Boras had a multiyear offer he thought Keuchel should take. Keuchel refused it as it wasn't enough money and it seems he burned himself.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for the Sox throwing some big offer in front of Cole or Strasburg in December. But Boras is gonna Boras and he’ll simply shop that offer around and play the slow game until someone does something drastic. I’d rather not miss out on Wheeler while we hope we’re the lucky winners for the elite guys. It sucks that MLB free agency is broken, but we can’t put all our eggs in the Boras basket and risk throwing away a year. And that really sucks for us, because I think Cole is the ideal free agent for us, more so than Machado or Harper even.

Agreed, it used to feel closer to 55-45 Cubs than it does today, but the Sox have not been relevant in a decade. Sustained success will shift some of that as the Cubs are likely to decline as the Sox begin to rise.

Fangraphs...you can enter player’s name, then go to season stats and click on advanced.

I said the Bulls suck and you all were like "nooooooooo they should be competitive this season they are interesting And have interesting players" and you fuckers all lied to me. I'm looking directly at you @bmags and @Chisoxfn this is more of the same garbage

Why in the world would you think this is true? Lmao this is just garbage and you know it

I think I’m starting to narrow in on Wheeler as the must have for me. That would at least give me hope for the future of having a potentially very good staff to compete in the playoffs. Patching RF and DH while waiting to see what Robert, Madrigal, Collins, and Vaughn add to the lineup in the near future is a spin that at least makes some sense...even if I don’t really want to see it go that way. Wheeler, Encarnacion, Calhoun, Lindblom, Hector Rondon (or pick your favorite mid priced RP) ....that’s an extremely realistic off season I could live with.

Puig is a bigger whackjob than Parkman. Not needed here.

I think he's going to be in Wrigleyville taking over for Bryant at 3B.

It would be very fitting for the Sox to want to maintain a lower payroll to be able to extend players down the road, and then not end up extending them or having those players not turn into stars.

I don't understand what is so hard to see here. What you posted is just a fact of the sports world. Maybe people just don't want to believe it because it sucks to realize tour team is second tier. I think this org can turn this all around but it starts right now, and making a legit effort to make this team better now. Once they do this, we will become a truly relevant team. We are definitely on our way.

The fact is the White Sox aren’t as desirable as other teams presently. If it was like the NBA where all the offers are basically the same, they would be screwed. The players don’t care that Bridgeport is a sleepy little area without 100 bars within walking distance of the ballpark. They don’t live there or go to these bars after games. But all things being equal, players like being paid, then playing for winning teams, preferable in fun environments. The last 2 pretty much go hand in hand with rare exception. But if you are a top guy and sign a 5 to 10 year contract, you would prefer to have total confidence the organization will be able to contend most of the time you are under contract. The White Sox can try to sell sustained success,, but they aren’t coming from a place of familiarity. A player really has to take a leap of faith thinking the White Sox are going to be good for a long time.

Its Rookie of the Year, not Rookie of the Years. Doesnt matter anyway, Alvarez will win by a landslide

“The money will be spent” 🤮

Oh god, hell no. It’s really time to move on from him.

I look forward to the 3rd tier offers we try to toss to these FA's with opt outs, magical deferred dollars and pretend better value based on team options based on tunable playing time. In the end we will bargain hunt for FAs looking to rebuild their value, coming off injury, or a few years removed from success. Other teams are going to outbid us for these front line players. And Hahn is not going to wait until February to build his team for primary free agents. It will be quantity over quality this offseason. Look we spent the money will be the moniker. I would get Cole, Wheeler, JD for DH and a RF and call it an offseason. We have the money. There are no excuses. I am ready however for the excuses on near misses and almost wins this offseason. We will know how its going based on the number of whitesox leaks. When Kennys guy starts negotiating for us in the twitters. You know you are fucked.