wrathofhahn

The point is fans never think players are going to regress. For example Bautista (who likely had help) or Donaldson. But FO need to be smarter. The overwhelming evidence is players 33+ years old are bad bets to make that is Abreu age on his next extension so we burn through his most valuable years left to sign him to an extension through his decline when we are ready to compete? How does that make any sense? People aren't thinking with their head when it comes to Abreu.

Like who? People who have done regression models have proven for most players regression happens after age 29 and the huge dropoff starts at 32-33. Most of the guys with same style of hitters that defy the curve you find out later had help. Like for example Palmeiro. Or suspected guys like Cruz. I'm sure it happens outside of that but they are outliers for a reason.

I disagree with that I do agree however with your assessment that there is some added value of his leadership and clubhouse presence it just won't override what we could get back. I also hope he continues to go on a tear because the better he hits the more likely we are to get a big package back for him. They'll be some teams in need of a 1B this deadline. I named 8 of them earlier. I don't think this will be a JDM situation a bunch of 1B/DH on contending clubs really are struggling right now.

Will he in two years? Will he still be playing 1B even if he does do you want to sign an extension starting from age 33 onwards. For me the answer is no. Unless his value is so low that a comp pick would be worth more he should be moved now his value will never be higher and if people were honest about things they'd admit he doesn't fit the timetable either.

It also includes a base running component.

I never liked the signing to begin with but he was hitting unlike some of the other midrange guys who signed for less cough Avila. Interesting to see how he hits next year without the added help. If he was smart he would have laid of the drugs until next year and looked to cash in again. Melky knew how to play the game

Agreed on all fronts. People are too emotionally invested in Abreu they aren't thinking it through rationally at the end of his deal he'll be a 33 year old DH. Why are we worried about whether he resigns here or not at that point? Most of his value is in the fact he can still play 1B and is cost controlled for 1.5 years we'd be fools to not take advantage of that if at all possible

He has a vesting option he's easier to release then trade

Even when he was playing well he wasn't missing bats they need to figure out where his missing velo went and send him down until he gets ML caliber stuff. Keeping him up here really serves no purpose.

Cobb looks to be one of the biggest FA busts of the last five years. Guy should be DFA'ed but won't because of his contract.

Thats true they also probably get more then the offseason but if they traded him last season at the deadline I think with 1.5 years of control they get much more. Same with Abreu if we don't move him this deadline I don't think we get near as much in the offseason or next years deadline.

He's actually improved his BA by 20 points and his OBP by 27 points from last year. Dude is on the upswing can't send him down now.

I think if anything we should be looking to take back some short-term salary to get better prospects for example for the Yankees that could mean Brett Gardner.

Sure if they view him as an actual SS. UZR/150 -10.2, RngR -3.6 It won't matter if he continues to hit at the pace I guess but he's not a SS.

Well the problem with holding onto position players until they are rentals is your sort of at the mercy of the market. JD Martinez was mentioned earlier well part of the reason why the Tigers got so little is he was a rental the other problem is the Tigers moved him when there were a glut of 1B/DH at the time. That is sort of the problem with Machado. Most playoff teams already have a longterm guy at 3B. Beltre, Donaldson, Moustakas all figure to be available too. The trade deadline differs from the offseason. The trade deadline is about filling holes you can have an academic argument about how great Machados numbers are and they are you can talk about how much more valuable he is then a 1B/DH as a 3B is but if contending clubs need a 1B/DH thats who they'll target and if they feel they already have their longterm guys at 3B and those that don't - don't want to give up premium prospects what are you left with? The quote I gave regarding DD sort of exemplifies it. He thinks it's going to be a soft market maybe some team comes in and still blows their socks off but as the guy involved in trade discussions he would be in a better position then anyone to know

There will be a market. People have to sort of forget traditional trend-lines when it comes to trade value at the deadline and just look at need. A ton of clubs need a 1B/DH right now of course that could change if certain players bounce back but if the trendline continues there should be some competition for him. I named 8 previously.

They'll likely get much more at the deadline then the offseason but nowhere near what they would get if Machado had control. Per Dan Duquette (MLBTR): Brad Brach and Zach Britton could end up getting the most attention, as Duquette predicted “a robust market for relief pitchers.” The market for position players is harder to predict, with Duquette not knowing how things will fare in regards to a Manny Machado trade. “The issue for the Orioles would be, ’Will the Orioles ultimately trade a player who’s on his way to a Triple Crown or possibly MVP season?’” Duquette said. “That’s an issue for the club. And in the offseason, there were some teams interested in Manny, but there wasn’t a lot of talent coming back. Because teams know it’s going to take a lot of money to re-sign Manny.”

First of all we could definitely use some middle infielders prospects. We could use some high upside young SP prospects. Of course those are always in high demand.

Baseball reference has him having an additional year of control and do a much better job tracking service time. Unless Puig deal explicitly allows him to reach FA rather then being offered ARB..

Sorry Wanne your clip reminded me of this pretty much the CHW only chance

It would be a straight salary dump for the dodgers. Lets face it Puig isn't worth his salary. He actually has one more year of control but will likely be non-tendered next year.

I'm not saying it's the most likely option only that it is an option and I don't think the Dodgers really hold that high of an opinion of Puig. They tried to trade him in the offseason coming off a much better year

Who? Saladino was an infielder. Are you talking about May? He barely had a cup of coffee.

Engel is the worst offensive OF in CHW history. His defense is good but even Willie Mays wouldn't be able to make up for his bat. He has a 35 wRC+/36 OPS+. That is well words can't really do it justice. Baseball reference already has him at a -1 WAR. That means right now he's projected to finish with a -4 WAR. There have only been 20 players according to BR who have had a -4 WAR or greater in MLB history. He's been that bad.

If you are keeping around assets then you aren't rebuilding you are just sort of existing. The O's are a prime example of why this strategy is stupid. Now they are stuck trading Machado for pennies on the dollar and because they held onto their other assets too long they are worthless. No thanks. I think the rebuild could have been done a little better this offseason by bringing in some veterans instead of for example playing Engel and starting James Shields We did that to some extent with our bullpen but I would have liked us to bring in some veteran starters on minor league deals. Guys like Hellickson was there for the taking.