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SoxBlanco

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Posts posted by SoxBlanco

    Garrett Crochet named Opening Day starter

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

    Having him spend the first 45 days of the season in AAA and gradually work up his innings makes much more sense to me.  First, it helps protect your bullpen to open up the season.  Second, it claws backs a year of control which is very important in the event he wears out in June or July.

    Why do we care about protecting the bullpen? Honest question, as I might be missing something.

    The way I look at it is that either...

    • Our team is so bad that it won't matter if our bullpen is taxed. It's a lost season anyway, so why worry about the bullpen?

    Or...

    • We do care about the bullpen, because there's always an outside chance we could compete in our division. And if that's the case, then I'd want Crochet making his starts in the big leagues to start the year.
    • Like 1
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    Garrett Crochet named Opening Day starter

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

    There’s like 1500 innings that need to be thrown this year.  If him and Kopech get over 200 of those I’d call that a major success. 

    Did you remember to subtract 81, since we won’t need a pitcher to cover the bottom of the ninth for any road game this year?

    • Like 1
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    • Haha 7

    3/12 Sox at Reds

    in 2024 Season in Review

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

    5-13 and still last by far RS/RA this spring.

    -24/-26 two worst teams after Sox.

    Still looking at mid -30s for that category after tonight.

    Did you think I was being serious?

    Sox trade Matthew Thompson to Cubs for old friend Bailey Horn

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SoxAce said:

    Not that I think Thompson will amount to much (I am much higher on Mena) Getz trading younger prospects for 26 year old AAAA players is getting annoying. 

    If the Sox are very confident that Thompson will never amount to anything, the time to trade him is right now. However, you aren’t going to get a young prospect for him straight up. So you make this trade, hope Horn pitches well enough, and then you flip him for a young prospect. It would basically be flipping Thompson for said prospect, but the only way to get there is this indirect route. 

    I have no idea if that’s the actual plan here, but that’s what I’m going to tell myself to feel better about the trade. 

    • Like 4

    Sox trade Cristian Mena to Arizona for OF Dominic Fletcher

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

    I would suggest skepticism over anyone claiming that this is knowable for certain. Daniel Hudson was a guaranteed injury risk, the White Sox gave him up because the pitching coach said so, he pitched well for a year and then got hurt...and since then has had a 10 year career and made over $40 million as a reliever. 

    Totally agree. You can never know that for certain. You can feel strongly that somebody might never become a major league player, but you can never know for sure. 

    However, the job of the front office is to make moves like this if you feel strongly. The person I quoted says it makes zero sense to make a trade like this. I was simply pointing out that the trade DOES make sense IF you feel strongly that Mena will never amount to anything. 

    Sox trade Cristian Mena to Arizona for OF Dominic Fletcher

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

    What in the f*** are you talking about?  What assertion have I backed off of?  I just don’t think that this group of pitching prospects represents some sort of surplus when our major league rotation has zero guys controllable beyond the 2025 season.  Never once referred to them as “laughable”, but misconstruing statements appears to be par for the course with you.

    But for perspective, we kicked off our previous rebuild with basically eight 50 FV and above pitching prospects.  Several of these kids peaked out at 60 FV type prospects.  The talent gap between that group and this one is tremendous and that previous group didn’t exactly provide us with a surplus of pitching.  That all may change after potential Cease & Robert trades, but the current group is not nearly deep enough IMO to be trading from and feeling good about it.

    Again, this is just my opinion.  It’s weird that my opinion is so triggering for you, but I can assure you I don’t complain about trades for “engagement”…lol.

    I think what he was trying to say is that you claimed Mena falls into the category of pitching prospects that we have quite a few of. So in that regard, we do have a surplus of those types of guys. So why not turn one of them into an outfielder when we have very few OF prospects?

    • Like 1

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    Just now, Sports Guy said:

    Has any team met Getz’s price?  If a team had met his price, do you think he would have traded him?

    Just out of curiosity, if Cease was a free agent this offseason, what do you think his contract would look like? Just looking for your best guess. 

    The OF Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

    Former Royal>> 

    I watched plenty of Whit with the Jays last season. He's just not good anymore. Don't the MLB INFs they've already acquired check enough of those boxes?

    edit - With Pedro at the helm, I doubt Whit would simply be a UTIL, he'd likely play almost every day.

    Agreed. He’s not good. But I don’t think we are trying to sign good players. 

    • Thanks 1

    The OF Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Tnetennba said:

    You’re not wrong. The Sox would likely have to overpay, which at that point, why? Just stay away. 

    The utility role is not good for young prospects because we would want them getting as much playing time as possible. I have no problem paying Whit to be that guy, even if it’s a slight overpay. Veteran guy, leadership, good clubhouse presence, and can play multiple positions.  

    The OF Thread

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

    Harold has hinted at Whit, which I would absolutely hate.

    Is it possible we get an actual outfielder to play RF (sign or Cease trade) and then sign Whit for the “Leury” role? 

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

    Over the last 12-13 years we've seen our defense go from bad to terrible to awful, to dreadful to horrific to comical.  Thank god our new GM understands the importance of defense and will build a team accordingly.  

    I agree, but is this Cease related? Or just more of a general thought in the most active thread right now?

    Cease To Padres per Passan

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

    We will repeat this again. fWAR is missing what happened to Dylan Cease the last 2 years. It is designed to factor that out.

    In 2022, Dylan Cease had the 10th best fWAR in the league. This is not Cy Young caliber if that's all you follow. Notably, Aaron Nola put up a 6.3 fWAR season, best in baseball - that's a Cy Young caliber season. Given fWAR, which you chose to quote at me, you would say that Dylan Cease has never put up a Cy Young caliber season and you'd agree with me that calling him a Cy Young caliber pitcher has never been correct and is a clear exaggeration.

    Dylan Cease, of course, was 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting that year, so what happened? Well, that's the part that fWAR is factoring out. Dylan Cease in 2022 had excellent contact numbers against him in addition to his high strikeout numbers. fWAR filters this out by focusing on FIP - it assumes that if a guy is generating weak contact its due to luck and if a guy is giving up hard contact it is also due to luck. 

    In 2022, my version of Dylan Cease is that in addition to high strikeout and walk numbers, his statcast performance was excellent, his hard hit numbers were at the top of the league. In 2023, his exit velocity numbers were in the bottom half of the league and his performance suffered as a consequence.

    IF you want to call him Cy Young caliber in 2022, you're right, but that was because his slider in particular was producing very weak, pathetic contact against it. That pitch was hit hard in 2023. 

    Fangraphs is filtering this out through the use of FIP, so you get an average performance that says "he's good but never has been Cy Young caliber" because it is calling the difference in those qualities luck.

    If you go to a different version, B-R, you will find that Cease was #2 in MLB in 2022 in WAR. That's a Cy Young caliber pitcher and I agree with that. But you also find a guy who dropped off to 2.4 rWAR last year, because he gave up more hard contact and B-R doesn't filter that out. I also agree with that, and I think this is the correct way to look at him, I think that Fangraphs is incorrectly filtering things out that are important by not taking into account contact profile for this pitcher.

    However, you don't get to pick both, you can't tell me he's a Cy Young caliber pitcher when Fangraphs says he's top 10-20 but not top 5, and then tell me that Fangraphs also thinks he has steady solid value from year to year. Is he a top 20 pitcher in MLB but not Cy Young caliber like Fangraphs thinks, or is he Cy Young caliber but a mid-rotation innings eater in 2023 (and 2021)?

     

    This whole argument reminds me of Matthew Berry’s fantasy football draft manifesto every year where he talks about how you can take stats and make any single player look good or bad. 

    In the end, all that matters is what your gut is telling you about how the player will do this upcoming season. Or in this case, how do other GMs think Cease will perform over the next couple of years?

    Balta, out of curiosity, how do you think Cease will do over the course of the next two seasons?

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