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gusguyman

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gusguyman last won the day on January 22

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About gusguyman

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  1. I think this is only BIG NEWS if you think RH is incompetent, or that the WS are going to continue their rebuild habits of giving bad players a million chances to break out (understandable PTSD from the latter). Obviously RH doesn't think a guy who hasn't even cracked 2 WAR for a year in 4 seasons isn't a "long term answer" in RF. He definitely thinks he has a chance still to break out and become that player though.
  2. gusguyman

    SoxFest

    Wow, first I saw of this too. I'd say it deserves it's own thread so we don't derail the soxfest one, but I'm sure that'd be a shitshow. FWIW, there is enough here (timely police report, some convincing evidence, large amount of friends testifying that there was a consistent story/consequences, etc) that this can not be easily dismissed at all.
  3. We already have a poor defender in RF, and a lot of scouts/writers are saying NC got better enough at RF this year to move from "worst in the league" to merely "below-average" which probably puts him in the same range as Mazara. If someone believes that, what I said above still applies. If someone doesn't believe in the defensive improvement, I think the result is they just don't sign NC no matter who we had in RF, because Eloy in LF plus the worst defensive RF in the game is likely untenable. Which is a valid argument, but Mazara is pretty irrelevant to it. Injuries WILL happen, and I really don't want to be in contention in July and then realize we are about to see if Adam can put up 2 good months as an everyday starter while Eloy recovers from an ankle injury. If someone thought at the start of the offseason that NC would be a good fit for our RF, I think they should still support NC on a cheap deal, even with Mazara.
  4. I tend to agree that Castellanos wouldn't be the best use of resources, but also I don't think the logjam is as problematic as you imply here. When everyone is healthy: Adam Engel optioned to Charlotte Starting OF of Eloy, Robert, Castellanos. Mazara takes a 2-3 games a week from Castellanos and Eloy, mostly against RHP. He takes another game a week in RF when you shift Castellanos to DH. EE at DH 4-5 games a week, Castellanos and Grandal/McCann when you rest him (at his age, we probably don't want to push EE for 140+ games anyway) You also can move people around to give Jose one game off a week. That is when everyone is healthy. As soon as one of Robert/Eloy/Castellanos/EE/Jose gets an injury (which seems likely), you shift it all around. The only disadvantage is you are losing Adam as a late-inning defensive replacement. In a really healthy season, maybe his defense is worth more wins. But if any of those 5 guys misses significant time (or if someone like EE hits the age cliff) having both Castellanos and Mazara makes you a MUCH deeper team, and would obviously be worth more wins.
  5. gusguyman

    A look back at the perfecto

    Coop may be less useful these days, but damn, he was a miracle worker for a long, long time.
  6. If he is scared of the QO next year, why would he take a two year deal at an AAV basically equal to what the QO would be next year? At worst*, he could take a one year deal with a higher AAV and then accept a QO in the offseason. *worst other than a season so bad that he wouldn't even get a QO, but he has all sorts of other problems if that ends up the case.
  7. gusguyman

    MLB cheating scandal

    In other words, fans who didn't win the world series want to undo the world series. Shocker.
  8. Moan4Yoan hoping Hahn goes dumpster diving??? This offseason really has had everything.
  9. gusguyman

    MLB cheating scandal

    I want to give him credit. But the cynic in me is screaming that it is no coincidence that the only person who has given a real apology is the one who will be HoF elgible in 2023.
  10. gusguyman

    Frank Thomas; Baseball's 74th greatest player (The Athletic)

    Frank is the reason I am a baseball fan, so I also agree this is too low. However, I don't think it is indefensible. His peak wasn't particularly long, and he was a 1B/DH only. I'm not going to get mad at the number itself, let's wait to see who is ahead of him first.
  11. gusguyman

    MLB cheating scandal

    I'm surprised how many people here are saying Hinch and Luhnow are gone for good. They built an absolute juggernaut in Houston and revolutionized the way front offices approach baseball. MVP Machine is this generation's moneyball. Maybe they never get back to the top jobs, but I'd bet my neighbor's house that within three years, both are serving in some capacity for baseball teams. Luhnow in particular will be some BS "Special coordinator of the Minor Leagues" or something that allows him to overhaul a team that has fallen behind the times. EDIT: Ron already has a thread about Hinch replacing Ricky FFS
  12. The rebuild must be coming together if Greg is posting comments I can get behind.
  13. Really? Personally I find "run expectancy based on the 24 base-out states" to be a very catchy name. Really rolls off the tongue. 😛
  14. If ya'll like strand rate, checkout RE24. Basically, it measures how a pitcher changes the run expectancy and runs scored between entering and exiting. For example, if you give up a run after entering with a man on 3rd and 1 out, that is penalized less than entering with a man on 1st and 2 outs, because RE24 takes into account what the expected runs scored of the offense would be. It is still flawed - the expected runs that the model is based on only takes into account what bags are filled and how many outs there are. However, it addresses a problem with strand rate, which is that not all the scenarios of how a RP can enter the game are equal. Since strand rate is usually calculated from a pretty small sample size of outings, it is certainly possible that the degree of difficulty for those outings was demonstrably different. Last year, Steve Cishek was pretty decent with a 6.31 RE24, 46th out of qualifying RPs. This was down from his 3 previous years of 9.24, 14.72, and 10.72. FWIW, RE24 supports the perception that Bummer was a dominant fireman last year: he had an outstanding RE24 of 22.81, second best in the MLB only to Liam Hendrick's 22.89. 22.81 is also the 16th best score for a single season over the last 5 years.
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