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Look at Ray Ray Run

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Everything posted by Look at Ray Ray Run

  1. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Predict the Market: FA Contracts

    This is something that entertains me every off season and I like seeing how accurately salaries can be predicted. Fans the past few years have over valued the market. Let's see how accurate everyone can be. Here is a list of the top 2020 free agents. Here are the top 25: Cole - 7 years, 250 million Rendon - 8 years, 255 million Stras - 6 years, 220 million Bumgarner - 6 years, 175 million Chapman - 4 years 60 million JD Martinez - 4 years, 90 million Ryu - 4 years, 85 million Donaldson - 3 years, 65 million Wheeler - 5 years, 125 million Ozuna - 4 years, 85 million Grandal - 4 years, 70 million Odorizzi - 4 years, 60 million Hamels - 4 years, 65 million Didi - 5 years, 68 million Keuchel - 3 years, 50 million Castellanos - 5 years, 80 million Miley - 2 years, 25 million Encarnacion - 1 year, 19 million Moustakas - 2 years, 38 million Puig - 3 years, 45 million Will Smith - 4 years, 48 million Will Harris - 3 years, 30 million Betances - 2 years, 16 million Roark - 1 year, 13 million Pineda 1 year, 11 million
  2. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rendon Thread

    And the second part of the question: Where does Rendon see himself at 36? “Hopefully not playing baseball,” Rendon said with a laugh. Throw 200 at him for 5 years and see what happens if you really like him.
  3. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rendon Thread

    He doesnt want to play baseball past 35 years old. Rendon has hinted he'd prefer shorter bigger AAV because he doesn't want to play baseball into his late thirties.
  4. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    This is my hope as well. They were clearly upset about it, but the question is... upset enough to change your ways? Or upset that they couldn't convince others to conform to their ways.
  5. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    All he said is we're going to be active. Theres nothing wrong with that.
  6. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    Lol people just love to hate Kenny. I am one of them, but I see nothing wrong with this quote.
  7. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    Even his advantages in the draft were tied to outspending and overspending other teams. I've always thought Friedman and Beane were better than Theo because they could do it on a budget. That said, even with the advantages of overspending in the draft Theo was a great drafter of offensive talent. Him and his teams have excelled in identifying that talent.
  8. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    1. I am in no way implying he has no power. All positions require some deferal of power unless you're the owner. 2. Having confidence in yourself does not equal ignoring industry turnover trends. 3. I am not arguing he does not deserve blame for failures - he absolutely does. I'm stating that his successes do not dictate his job security which is a hell of a job to have.
  9. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    I'm not sure what this means, but most people in life would take job security (especially in their "dream job") over more perceived power. If the titles are the same, the pay is the same, but one job will hold onto you for decades while the other will throw you out at first sign of struggle... I think it's obvious which job I'd take.
  10. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    He's paid well, and has great job security. I have no idea why people think it's a bad job or that he should move on. He doesnt have to succeed to maintain his job title - that's a dream job in that industry with inflated turnover rates. Edit: I wish jerry was my boss ha
  11. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Zack Wheeler Thread

    Yes, but most interested teams are interested up to a value I dont think wheeler signs for. Once the number begins to approach 100 million, the interested teams dwindle.
  12. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    I dont think he is emphasizing he is right, ftr. I am saying when he claims the organization is shaking stigmas, it's due to those changes being deemed neccessary by him.
  13. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    An executive still has a direct report. The reason I think my example makes sense is because Rick spends a lot of time patting himself on the back for any "change" the organization makes - this leads me to believe that these are battles he is fighting behind closed doors. His emphasis on the organization being different leads me to believe these have been his biggest battles. That said, the easiest way to show your boss that you know what you're doing and to get him to change is to succeed somewhere - rick has not exactly shown that ability in FA, that's for sure. You usually dont ask for more when you arent maximizing what you already get.
  14. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    I look at it like any other job. I have a boss. My boss has been with the company a long time. He has a structure that has worked, and a belief system that has got him here. I have my own opinions. I can validate my thoughts and changes with stastical evidence supporting my claim. At the end of the day, something's wont change regardless of my efforts. All I can continue to do is quantify decisions, evaluate their monetary impact, and relay those conclusions and opinions to my superior. If my superior doesn't want to change a process, or change the way we execute a certain aspect of our business then so be it - I get back to the drawing board analyzing another area of opportunity in hope of getting him to sign off. As an employee I can become frustrated believing my thoughts arent valued enough and leave, or I can be happy that my boss treats me respectfully, pays me competitively, and only holds me accountable for the things I can impact and change.
  15. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    Again, my post history is readily available. Review it and show my "support of Hahn." Again I'm not debating anything; you are. I am stating that you can't remove successes when analyzing outcomes. I also stated you dont even have too - he grades out poorly without doing such. By slanting your statistics to better suit your opinion, all you do is take away from the valid point you are making - you discredit yourself as bias. I can analyze hahns job sans bias - it hasn't been good - but by maintaining data integrity I have been accused of defending him. Being a GM is no different than running an investment portfolio. One or two diamonds in the rough can drive the success of your portfolio - no one when analyzing you says, yes but if you remove these two calls you're awful. Why? Because samples need to include all data points, not just the good or bad ones.
  16. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    When the majority of your signings are small, you're going to have a lot of variance regarding who produces what. For example, in 2016 he signed 5 guys for 16.5 million - a little over 3 million per player. They generated negative WAR but is that far from what was expected? Not really. 3 million dollar players perform negatively as frequently as positively. The sox have invested in the dumpster aisle in FA so expecting consistent results just doesnt seem logical. Have they wasted money by being risk averse? Obviously that appears to be the case, but you cant remove successes to evaluate an overall outcome. I also want to ask why James McCann gets only 1 WAR in soxmachien piece when he was 2.3 WAR against FG and 3.8 WAR a bref.
  17. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    I'm not sure what led you to believe that I am defending Rick Hahn. I'm merely saying stastical integrity matters.
  18. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    How is that disingenuous? It would be disingenuous if I said, Rick got 24.5 WAR out of 62 million - what a genius. Fact is, some of his FA dollars outperformed by a lot and some were awful. That's the nature of free agency. He got about 1 WAR for every 10.8 million spent which isn't great by any means, but tells the story of his free agent signings in general.
  19. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Rick Hahn's Resume as GM

    Distorting numbers to fit your narrative don't make it a good point. Hahn has paid 250 million go get 23.5 WAR - 10.6 million per WAR. While that is certainly less than the industry average (which is up to 9.8 million now) it's also not nearly as damning as the absurd 180 million for -1 WAR value you cite. If you remove all successes and only analyze a team based on their failures, they're all going to look bad. Hahn has failed enough that you dont have to play a disingenuous stats game.
  20. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Sox issue qualifying offer to Abreu

    None of this is news. Everyone knew the sox discussed things. Then they offered him the QO.
  21. Look at Ray Ray Run

    A Realistic Offseason

    I don't, all this talk about guys actually has me thinking they're dabbling in the big boy market in silence this year. I actually take this as a good thing. Bruce is also a dope so almost everything he says turns out wrong which is exciting as well.
  22. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Edwin Encarnacion - DH

    Hes not out at all. Not sure why people think otherwise.
  23. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Potential Deals with Boston

    Now we're getting closer. We are at a point, finally!, in which present value is as valuable to the Sox as future value. You throw in the 20 million, dropping Price down to a more reasonable 25 million a year and now I see some equality.
  24. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Potential Deals with Boston

    Bummers best pitch is one that has aged really well for relievers - a high velocity high movement sinker. Jace Frys best pitch is one he doesnt control all that well - his slider. If Jace could throw that pitch with more consistency I think he'd be fine. I do agree that volatility in relievers needs to be accounted for and one year of success does not make bummer a guarantee. His K numbers also need to increase a bit because his FIP puts him more in the middle than at the top.
  25. Look at Ray Ray Run

    Potential Deals with Boston

    I valued bummer at the same rate other high leverage relievers are being paid. I think you're right that I valued him too highly because he hasnt duplicated his performance yet so the volatility is still there. I think you're right that I'm valuing him at his peak market value opposed to the potential demise or regression of his talents. Even if we cut the figure in half to 15 million, and reduce steiver to about 5, the sox are still negative 30 million in surplus at that trade.
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