MackowiakYakYak

Adam Engel is top 3 on the Sox in position player WAR Cease is the best starter on the team but Soxtalk says the Sox babied him and he’s a #3 at best

I'm of the same mind. Unlike with the pre-Covid farm system there seems to be breakout players. Before this year how many prospects had breakout seasons like Ramos, Romy, and Rodriguez did? Previous years' systems had 40/45 FV prospects who would all have incremental development that would fall far short of what was needed to breakout. You can see this best with the amazing outfield prospect depth the Sox supposedly had between 2017 and 2019. Did any of the big outfield prospects ever have a great season? We were hyped for Basabe, Adolfo, Rutherford, and Luis Gonzalez, but we also had Alex Call, Jameson Fisher, and others who would theoretically be in the 2022 Sox top 20. But we didn't see any of these guys take the next step to become top 100 prospects. The counterpoint would be that these low level prospects would have breakout seasons before, but nobody would care because we had much better talent in the system. Still, I think that a Bryce Bush and DJ Gladney breakout of two years ago is much less significant than the steps made by our infield prospects this past year. Every infielder in our top prospects except Kath had a good or great season and that's much more exciting than the 5 outfielders hitting for a 110 wrc+ up until AAA where they start hitting sub-100 wrc+

Average age in the league is not necessarily peak though. The league has a ton of “rebuilding” teams that are going to play a 25 year old over a statistically better 29+ year old. A good amount of the baseball skillset isn’t closely tied to age in the same way they are in the other major sports. The aging curve does exist but regression isn’t expected until a player hits 30 and even then regression is expected to be a slow decline at first. Injuries are the obvious exception to this but that’s different than talking about primes.

I’m a big Sheets fan but I’m still split on whether I’d see him on or off the Sox roster. We need lefty bats but we’ve got a righty version of Sheets that projects for more upside (Vaughn). We have a glut of bad defensive corner outfielders, first basemen, and DH candidates. He doesn’t quite fill any needs. Yet I really like what he can provide for the roster as a hitter. If we only look at hitting for a second Sheets would be a great piece for our roster. He has good strikeout and walk rates for a power hitter. He’s fast enough on the base paths for being that power hitter. He can punish fastballs, sinkers, and changes. The only pitch he is below league average against is the slider where he is absolutely terrible. Our roster does tend to get exposed by sliders more often but we don’t look great against sinkers either. I think he could be a productive platoon/pinch hit bat and the Sox don’t have anyone nearly as suitable for that role. But the questions are where do you put him, who is kept out of the lineup by him, and if traded which player would the Sox actually get to fill his 26-man roster spot? I could live with him being off the Sox, either in AAA or on another team, but I don’t have faith it’ll happen in a satisfying way.

I don't know how it could ever happen in the American sports landscape, but I completely agree with getting rid of the draft. With how much an individual player's livelihood could be ruined by going to Pirates or being drafted by Baltimore as a pitcher in years past, it would be huge for these kids' lives to be able to choose their destination. Baseball pays prospects once before they spend half a decade or more in the minors making terrible wages. In order to pursue their career, they are forced to ride buses, sleep in hotels, and change their address for each level of the minor leagues. It's not some egregious crime, but to have to go through all of that and also have to be in the Pirates organization? That very well could be criminal. Here's my quick attempt at comparing MLB drafting with the other major sports: NFL is relatively straightforward. Franchises are drafting for need, most players picked matter to the team's success, and differences in quality of coaching during development can mostly be overcome. The drafting franchise doesn't matter nearly as much unless you're a QB getting drafted by the Bears where you're screwed. NBA is great for players that are able to get drafted. Two rounds of draft means your team actually wants you. You only have one developmental league. You're far less likely to have your entire career ruined because of the team that drafted you. MLS has a draft for Americans but they are able to sign with clubs all over the world. Worldwide soccer is its own beast but at least American players have options that aren't considered second-tier and will try to develop them. NHL might be the closest to the potential garbage that is MLB drafting but its still not even close. NHL draftees might play in the minors for half a decade but they are able to reach free agency much more easily. Teams don't seem to have nearly the same amount in variance in their ability to develop prospects. Each one of these leagues places a greater importance on each individual drafted prospect. MLB has a much greater bust potential. MLB has the greatest number of developmental league teams where at any of these a player could have their career ruined by an awful coach. In my opinion, no other league has as much variance in a team's ability to develop prospects and therefore the most potential to improve or ruin a player's life. Tampa and Cleveland are the obvious examples of great development and I think these clubs should be rewarded for their role in making better baseball players.

Kelley looks like a guy that could be comfortable pitching at that weight class. He's got a fairly smooth, repeatable delivery. Weight doesn't necessarily affect those pitchers as much as it would a high-exertion, high-variability delivery like a Carson Fulmer. He's a pitcher so its not like having a skill position player come to camp overweight. Some pitchers work well rounder than others. Plus the kid is 20 years old. No need to gawk or project more than we need to.

As a hockey second sports fan I've really felt the sting of the Blackhawks scandal. I started caring about prospects in sports when the victim was the #1 prospect in the Hawks' system. I've read so many articles about how the victim was a bust and had every terrible character trait imaginable. Instead its some of the people I thought were respectable who are trash. That makes me feel like the current moment is especially bad, but its really just this bad for Chicago sports fans who care about baseball. Pretty much every other issue has parallels in recent memory. The Olympics are increasingly controversial in the last decade. Two of the last three winter Olympic locations were held by the government's geopolitical enemies, the Rio Olympics was terrible in many respects, and I heard more about covid and the sex-proof beds than the actual Tokyo Olympics. Racism in sports management and coaching has been a topic of conversation for a while now. Racism is becoming a bigger issue as more players are speaking out and more journalists are refusing to stick to sports but it has always been there. The NFL has a new weird type of scandal every few years and steroids have been talked about often since Bonds got on the ballot. So to me it comes down to MLB's owners lockout and the Blackhawks scandal. It's not great as most of us probably say baseball is our favorite sport and have the Hawks as our hockey team, but that makes things more Chicago and baseball specific than sports as a whole. At least the Bulls are playing some great basketball.

I agree that Conforto was bad last year, but the underlying stats show he was mostly unlucky. His k rate was above his career average and his walk rate was right around his average, so it’s not like he’s suddenly lost his eye. His issue was that his babip and iso were both at or near career lows. It seems unlikely his power can’t recover since he’s not old and it’s not like pitchers were suddenly able to take advantage of him. He was mostly doing what he should be doing but not getting the results. I’m not in love with Conforto as the perfect RF solution, but he’s the best one available and he should be solid.

Plus we’ve got Romy and Leury who could likely give us league average offense at 2B. Get the defense first middle infielder and let our filler bats do some work

The timing makes me think he is seeking or weighing an early extension. If Cease expected to go through arbitration the cost of Boris doesn’t seem worth it. How often are we actually surprised by the results of arbitration? We don’t know the details of Cease’s deal with Boris but unless Boris is cheaper during arb years and only expensive when a player is a UFA then I think this is about extension talks

I never knew he was a dominant in the NPB and never realized his MLB career was only two seasons. He’ll always be the pitcher I think of when someone talks about throwing sidearm

Above teams sorted from highest bullpen payroll to lowest. Number is the league ranking of bullpen fWAR Dodgers ($45m) 5th in bullpen fWAR Yankees ($35m) 3rd White Sox ($29m) 2nd Red Sox ($29m) 9th Astros ($18m) 14th Blue Jays ($13m) 25th Cardinals ($12m) 11th Brewers ($3.75m) 15th Giants ($3m) 6th Rays ($3m) 1st

Payroll dedicated to bullpen arms with contracts above $1m AAV by 2021's Top 10 Teams by winning percentage: Giants: $3m on 2 players Dodgers: $45.12m on 7 players Rays: $2.95m on 2 players Astros: $18.6m on 5 players Brewers: $3.76m on 3 players White Sox: $29.69m on 5 players Yankees: $35.3m on 6 players Red Sox: $29.45m on 6 players Blue Jays: $13.44m on 5 players Cardinals: $12m on 1 player All data according to Spotrac 2021 data. Only included pitchers earning >$1m for simplicity. Includes pitchers listed as RP by the website whether active, IL, or retained salary. All data also done by hand. Decent chance I messed something up.

In last year's Covid free agency there were 9 UFA relief pitchers that received contracts with an AAV above $5mil: Liam Hendriks $18m (3y) 2.7 fWAR (1st in RP fWAR with at least 20 IP) Trevor Rosenthal $11m Injured Brad Hand $10.5m -.1 fWAR Blake Treinen $8.75m (2y) 1.8 fWAR (11th) Trevor May $7.75m (2y) .5 fWAR (105th) Pedro Baez $6.25m (2y) 0 fWAR on 4.1 inning pitched Alex Colome $6.25m 0.1 fWAR Archie Bradley $6m 0.3 fWAR Kirby Yates $5.5m Injured Below this you get guys like Chase Anderson, Ken Giles, Tony Watson, Mark Melancon, Aaron Loup, etc. that got contracts between $3m-$4m in AAV.

Has there been a more recent Sox signing of a set-up guy than Kelvin Herrera? Guy was brutal when he was here, but there were obvious signs that he was declining leading into the Sox signing him. Gravemen has had two straight seasons where his peripherals look decent. Savant has him with an expected ERA of around 3.7 the last two seasons which isn't exactly great but I wouldn't be upset if he threw consistent mid-3 ERAs for three years. I think it's a fine deal taken on its own. They better trade Kimbrel and it'd still be nice if they signed Tepera as well.

Where does Marte fit into Houston’s outfield? They’ve got Brantley, Straw, Tucker, McCormick, and Meyers as outfielders and Yordan will be DHing everyday. That likely moves Brantley to the bench and McCormick+Meyers to AAA. Straw was a great defensive CF so Houston is either not maximizing Marte’s defensive value as a CF or moving a stud CF out of position. It’s for this reason that it wouldn’t be as devastating if Houston lands him (compared to getting a true corner outfielder with a better bat), but it still improves the roster of our main competition in the AL

I’d say it’s worth using a fancy stats ERA equivalent and innings pitched as what a voter looks at first. ERA misses out on defense and luck a bit too much. I still don’t think I’d give a 1st place vote to someone with a mediocre ERA if the fancy stats are great, but the focus should be on how effective the pitcher was at doing what he could control.

Defensive metrics often give massively different results. I believe people put the most faith in the savant one but they make them all different so the fans can argue

I hope whichever owner realizes money wise they can make this team into the Yankees of the AL Central. Sure the rest of the division will rise and fall as they pick their windows to compete but the rest of the division is mid market teams. No other division has a clear #1 market like our division does. The problem with the post-2005 stretch is that they kept thinking too short term and made most of their decisions with a pre-analytics mindset. To be fair most teams were making their decisions that way but the Astros, Red Sox, A’s, Rays, and Giants have shown there is a way to compete every year without going through rebuild full cycles

Hey the Cubs don’t

Do we think Nightengale gets disinformation from the Sox or that he completely fabricates his info? I thought everyone believed he directly gets fed information from the org but they use him to seed false narratives. If this is from the org would the point be?

But it needs to be a true platoon player and not a generic lefty bat. We need someone of Tampa’s platoon mold. Give me a guy with an 800+ OPS against righties and a sub-600 OPS lefties instead of someone that’s sitting at 750 for both. edit: ironically this is Brian Godwin’s profile. He had a wRC+ of 125, OPS 811 against righties and was absolutely useless against lefties

I don’t think Engel is a very tough decision. He’s at the very least established himself to be at least a good 4th outfielder with his great defense and base running. The last two seasons he’s shown that he could possibly throw together a 2 or 3 war season. Letting him go because we twice rushed him back from leg injuries would be asinine

No way Goodwin gets any guaranteed money. He’s set for a minor league tryout next year

The Sox have a bigger differential on the season for home and away, and Houston is first in wrc at home and away. The easiest explanation is that you get used to your park’s batters eye. Don’t start shit Tepera