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South Side Hit Men

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Posts posted by South Side Hit Men


  1. 4 hours ago, bmags said:

    Yeah right on, and it was completely sustainable and they rode that strategy for a decade of playoff appearances

    Let's wait and see if the Sox ever advance a single round under Hahn before mocking what Kenny did over his 12 years.

    Kenny did it in four seasons. Hahn is entering season ten, zero playoff success, far more financial resources at his disposal than what Kenny had to work with.


  2. 41 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

    You keep saying this but I don’t agree at all.  You seem way too pessimistic on our financial outlook for next year.

    It's realistic (and a + 20% increase over last year's OD is more realistic than the $185-$200M + people are bantering about). Plus it is more savvy to trade our surplus DH types and get quality cost controlled pitching in return. 

    Time will tell how the final OD roster shapes up, but there is no evidence a 40% ($180M) to 50% ($192M) plus year over year OD payroll increase is likely, especially when 2021 was already the highest OD payroll in White Sox history.

    The Sox currently have the 6th highest payroll, they are not going to be at or above the current luxury tax. There is no magic wand to make Hahn's poor acquisitions like Kimbrel (they should have let him walk) and Keuchel disappear. The money has been spent, just not very wisely or broadly across the roster.


  3. 1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

    The obvious point there is not to buy at peak, but to take undervalued or overlooked buy low guys and turn them into assets for your team, like Rodon and Lynn this season.

    This is how the lone White Sox team within the past century which actually advanced in the playoffs was built. A mix of young Ron Schuler's solid young player core and a dozen savvy Kenny Williams free agent and trade acquisitions.

    Hahn hamstrung flexibility or ability to add depth and fill holes by spending over $200M on a few older FAs at top of market prices (Grandal $73M, Keuchel $56M or $74M, Lynn's $39M extension, Encarnacion $13M, and whatever they get for the $20M (plus Heuer and Madrigal) spent on Kimbrel). 

    2005 Chicago White Sox 99-63 $75.1M Opening Day Payroll (13th in MLB)

    Ron Schuler Draft Picks / Trade Acqusitions(Just over $1M for each 1 bWAR for this solid young core)

    • Mark Beuhrle (1998 36th Round) $6.0M / 4.8 (bWAR)
    • Jon Garland (1998 Trade) $3.4M / 4.7
    • Paul Konerko (1998 Trade) $8.8M / 4.0
    • Aaron Rowand (1998 1st Round) $2.0M / 3.7
    • Joe Crede (1996 5th Round) $0.4M / 1.6

    Kenny Williams Savvy Trade & Free Agent Acquisitions: ($2M for 1 bWAR for Contreras and Garcia, $1M for 1 bWAR for the rest)

    • Jose Contreras (2004 Trade) $8.5M / 3.6
    • Freddy Garcia (2004 Trade) $8.0M / 3.5
    • Tadahito Iguchi (2005 Free Agent) $2.3M / 2.8
    • Cliff Polite (2004 Free Agent) $1.0M / 2.7
    • Jermaine Dye (2005 Free Agent) $4.0M / 2.5
    • A. J. Pierzynski (2005 Free Agent) $2.3M / 2.3
    • Juan Uribe (2004 Trade) $2.2M / 2,2
    • Neal Cotts (2002 Trade) $0.3M / 2.0
    • Dustin Hermanson (2005 Free Agent) $2.0M / 2.0
    • Scott Podsednik (2005 Trade Acquisition) $0.7M / 1.7
    • Brandon McCarthy (2002 17th Round) $0.3M / 1.2

  4. People should also factor the Sox 2023 commitments in terms of FA or trade returns salaries beyond this season.

    Looking at over $115M for nine guys in 2023:

    • Lynn $18.5M
    • Grandal $18.3M
    • Moncada $17.8M
    • Hendriks $14.3M
    • Anderson $12.5M (or $1M buy-out)
    • Jimenez $10.3M
    • Giolito $10.0M (Arb estimate)
    • Robert $9.5M
    • Bummer $3.8M

    This doesn't include a likely Abreu return in the $16M-$20M 1-2 year range, and also doesn't include Keuchel vesting at $20M, so likely $135M (Abreu + Keuchel Buyout), or $155M if Keuchel bounces back and hits 160 IP.

    That's why it's unlikely they are picking up high priced FAs this season, any additions will be either via trade or shopping in the Aldi / Butera Free Agency section.

     


  5. Add Oakland (Miami noted earlier) in terms of opportunities to pickup solid pitching at reasonable AAVs via trade.

    The likely route if the Sox are looking for a pitcher to replace Rodon (vs. handling internally plus perhaps 1-2 NRIs).

     


  6. 3 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

    I'd hate to be the team that gives Ray that contract.

    Yes, I posted earlier I liked Ray at 3-4 years and a $17M AAV, and their estimate is 1-2 years longer and $9M more per year.

    With the current hyperinflation environment, and the large and growing amount of ancillary revenue owners have been shielding over the years, I can see agents pushing for a more equitable AAV this off-season. 

     


  7. MLB Trade Rumors predicted the likely AAV and contract terms for their Top 50 Free Agents.

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

    They predicted a one year $25M contract for Carlos Rodon, with Houston, Boston and the Angels as the predicted destinations by the three writers.

    Of the 150 selections (3 writers predicted the destination for the Top 50 players), the Sox had 3 of the 150 selections:

    • #32 Michael Conforto (Steve Adams) 1 Year / $20M
    • #35 Eduardo Escobar (Steve Adams) 2 Years / $20M Total
    • #43 Jonathan Villar (Anthony Franco) 2 Years / $14M Total

    Other Notables: 

    • #6 Marcus Semien 6 Years / $138M
    • #7 Robbie Ray 5 Years / $130M
    • #15 Kyle Schwarber 4 Years / $70M
    • #16 Chris Taylor 4 Years / $64M
    • #45 Ryan Tepera 2 Years / $12M
    • #49 Yan Gomes 2 Years / $10M

  8. Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

    These are my own estimates and many of them will more optimistic than what Steamer’s projecting.  And generally speaking, I find Steamer to be way too conservative on young players, especially with all the noise over the past couple years.  For example, I fully expect Robert to blow his number out of the water (4.7) as he basically put up 3.2 in a half of a season and he’s still not a fully developed product.  Eloy is only projected for 2.4 wins by Steamer, but I think he performs closer to his 2020 rate stats and ends up at around 4.  There is a method to the madness although candidly speaking I don’t actually think that roster would win 110 games.  There is clearly some likely injury impacts and other things that I’m not accounting for, which makes the fWAR total highly optimistic.

    OK, just wanted to confirm they weren't from a source. For consistent fWAR for comparing plans, picking a single public free source would help better compare plans, IMO. consistent with also using the same salary info.

    I did a rough quick estimate earlier, will do another using Fangraphs FA tracker (contract and fWAR) and MLB trade rumor arbitration estimates once the remaining QO player responses are filed later this month, if they update before the Owner Lockout.

    Was encouraged by the article Miami is looking to trade controllable top pitching, will definitely be somewhere I, and more importantly hopefully the White Sox, will seriously consider.

    • Like 1

  9. 19 minutes ago, fathom said:

    He’s a frustrating player to watch.  

     

    38 minutes ago, Tony said:

    I don't like the Conforto fit. 

    Definitely not worth the squeeze. Assuming the Sox are spending that kind of money on a single player, I’d prefer a top pitcher or Semien.

    They can at least cover RF with upside from Sheets, Vaughn and Engel if he can ever stay healthy (goes for Eloy as well). 
    They can’t cover 2B or SP depth internally (Lambert?), and also could use one or two solid RPs if they want to be legitimate contenders with legitimate depth assuming they also return Leury and a solid catcher. 

    • Haha 1

  10. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/early-qualifying-offer-decisions.html
     

    Of the 14 players receiving QOs, the players I can see likely to consider accepting are:

    • Raisel Iglesias, as that’s likely higher than any AAV he can expect, and opens up unrestricted (no lost pick) FA next year.
    • Brandon Belt - just don’t see looking to give him a multi year contract over $18.4M including a draft pick.
    • The two injured pitchers, Syndergaard and Verlander. Can reset their value with healthy 2022 performances if they like the organizations they are currently with.

    Castellanos, Conforto and Seager already rejected, with Correa, Freeman, Ray, Semien and Story superlocks to reject; with Taylor and Rodriguez likely to Fly the Coop.


  11. 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

    If the White Sox are able to trade Kimbrel without having to include substantial money or take back a comparably bad deal, then yes, they will deserve praise. 

    Or you could have eat $1M and let him walk away, the more prudent option of the two.


  12. 5 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

    Kimbrel @ $16 is an overpay in all but fluke circumstances; so if you can only have one, none is the answer.
    And in the  Kimbrel @ $16 or Rodon @ $18.4 choice, Rodon is the obvious choice by a mile.

    I’d take pick up neither as the preferred option, with if you “had to”sign one Rodon being the preferred route, assuming his medicals are in order for someone to sign him this off-season.

    Im certain whatever the Sox get in return for Kimbrel will be praised high and wide, regardless of merit.


  13. 14 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

    They could just use money and sign Michael Conforto to play RF and keep Vaughn too. I don't understand why the acquisition has to come via trade. Spend more of Jerry's fucking money on real ass players. Andrew Vaughn should be their 1B for the next decade. Trading him would be a huge mistake. I'd trade Eloy before I traded Vaughn. 

    Agreed on both counts, though it’s unlikely Jerry will hit anything close to the near $200M people here are expecting. Same false expectations as last offseason.

    Eloy doesn’t want to DH, in part because he has sucked ass to date when he has attempted it (.592 OPS). There is no evidence he can stay healthy at LF, or can be even league average the times he is able to play. He is the one core member I’d listen to trade talks for as his juice is not worth the squeeze. Get a solid #2 SP for him, the Marlins have ample pitching, other teams may also be interested in giving up a solid return.

    I don’t agree with Hahn’s assessment that RF is a good fit for Vaughn or Sheets, but he pissed away all the cash on players who have shit the bed in October, leaving people hoping they can get decent garbage for Kimbrel and/or Keuchel by the guy who thought they were wise acquisitions in the first place.

    • Haha 3

  14. Hahn joining 1000AM in a few minutes. Will they ask any pointed questions, and will he answer any questions.

    They asked for fan questions on twitter, this was the best one so far, would love to see it on zoom.

    EDIT: It was an absolutely worthless segment.


  15. 5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

    Citing payrolls before anything has happened means nothing.  And the Sox finished with a $140M+ payroll last year I believe and that’s with COVID impacted gate revenue greatly reducing their opening day budget.  Going up to $170M would be about a 20% increase and that’s off a deflated base.  Zero doubt in my mind they don’t hit that figure.  Honestly, I think $180M is a very realistic target, but gun to head I’m going with $170M.

    https://theathletic.com/news/white-sox-dont-extend-qualifying-offer-to-starter-carlos-rodon/VYBok0WMza35/?redirected=1

    Quote

    Where does this leave the White Sox?

    Fegan: The Sox got tremendous returns taking a $3 million bet on Rodón being able to deliver a healthy season in 2021, despite his second-half fade. And their judgment of Rodón's physical capabilities has some credibility given his eight years in the organization.

    But it's hard to square how Rodón at $18.4 million in 2022 is a worse risk than picking up Craig Kimbrel's $16 million option — even accounting for Kimbrel’s latent trade value — in the wake of his own disastrous second half, and recent inconsistency.

    This hints at the ceiling of the White Sox' offseason budget, and their subsequent moves to address the rotation will have prove the wisdom in this decision. Or, like he did with Rodón last season, pitching coach Ethan Katz could revive someone else into a stud starter out of nowhere and make all of this look like a masterstroke.

     


  16. Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

    There is zero chance that’s our offseason…none whatsoever.  $180M is the threshold to have a top 10 payroll and that’s where Jerry generally plays when competing.  If you want to be conservative, go with a $170M payroll then.  Either way, you are taking Hahn’s lawyer speak way too seriously as he’s not going to come out and devalue his young players by saying “we desperate need to upgrade x position”.

    Not sure how you state that, when the upper $120s is the all time high, and $165 is where they are at with their current roster including likely arbitration awards.

    Sox have spent based on revenue higher when available, but don’t see a scenario where revenue will increase 50% to pay for a 50% increase in payroll. Hahn has spent the money on Keuchel, Lynn, Grandal and Abreu for 2022, and also  has Kimbrel until he can move him.

    They currently have the 6th highest 2022 payroll on Cot’s Contracts. If they can dump Kimbrel, it will pay for the four FA type acquisitions listed and still keep them 6th until everything else shakes out. I don’t see more than a few high end teams spending on the top free agents, top acquisitions will be concentrated among the usual suspects. At least a 1/3 of MLB will do absolutely nothing, 1/3 will tread water, and the Sox are already 6th among teams actually attempting to win something.


  17. 5 minutes ago, fathom said:

    That team wouldn’t win the AL Central, but good news is that’s about the worst possible scenario for the offseason

    I don’t agree with that. Detroit may possibly be the only other team that has a legitimate chance finishing over .500, depending on whether they step up and bring in Correa or other significant pieces. Cleveland isn’t spending anything, Minnesota is looking to sell including Buxton, Royals will add a couple of old cheap guys, but they aren’t going anywhere.

    Rick set the expectations Friday with his focus on internal growth. Based on the already record high payroll ($145m without Kimbrel), I just don’t expect a major acquisition FA wise. Lynn’s extension was a major acquisition. 

    Perhaps we will see a creative trade, perhaps Eloy, similar to what they did to acquire Lynn, or sign a creative $ deal like what they did for Hendriks, or somehow pull a Houdini and can dump Keuchel.


  18. Hahn’s comments Friday focused on internal options improving, be it a healthy Robert, younger players like Sheets and Vaughn improving, Kopech transitioning into the rotation, and Crochet into Kopech’s 2021 role.

    Quote

    “We feel very bullish on the futures of Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets,” Hahn said. “We envision them playing significant roles on multiple White Sox clubs going forward.”… 

    If the off-season acquisitions boil down to

    • Leury ($8M/2 years)
    • Tepera or equivalent ($9M/2years)
    • Josh Harrison/Jose Iglesias type at 2B ($5M/1yr + team option or $1M Buyout)
    • Danny Duffy/Michael Wacha/Michael Pineda SP (1-2 years /$7-8M AAV)
    • Kimbrel for a prospect, bench and or low leverage bullpen piece or swingman

    Will folks here be satisfied? Because this seems like what will likely occur based on their current payroll commitments.

    Hahn said “his team was on the floor” after Hendricks, and has since added $19M, 10-15% of payroll, on Lance Lynn for 2022 (assuming Kimbrel’s $16M is gone). The Sox also have significant payroll bumps due for the Core the next two seasons.

    • Haha 1

  19. 1 hour ago, fathom said:

    But as Harold mentioned earlier, if the Sox have serious doubts about Rodon’s health, why risk spending more than 10 pct of your budget on him?  It’s just too risky.  Did everything forget the last two months of the season when the Sox basically didn’t want to pitch him because of his health.

    I agree, it doesn't make sense to pay top AAV value with little upside, but lots of risk. Feel contrarian with the board, but thought Hahn had a much better season this year (Nov 2020 - October 2021) than his "Executive of the Year" season (Nov 2019 - October 2020), though with more cash. Hendriks and Lynn trade acquisitions had solid upside as compared to their payroll, Tepera pitched well and Hernandez made sense, just didn't work out. Eaton and Tony didn't make sense but Tony was never his decision. He also worked with Lucas to recruit Katz, the most valuable acquisition by far, responsible with Rodon and Cease's turnarounds.

    If they can move Kimbrel, and they don't get dead cash in return, they hopefully have at least $20M to get a solid pitcher (perhaps Ray at 3/$60M). Still expect RF is an internal fill, possibly a low end 2B like Jose iglesias plus Leury's return, a quality $4M-$5M reliever to get payroll in the $160M-$165M range, which would still be a substantial increase from last season. Still think they need to catch 1 or 2 major upgrades with a bargain salary (like Dye (2005) or Rodon (2021)) to be serious contenders in October, hopefully Hahn and FO can find another Rodon and or snag a FA hitter with big upside.


  20. 1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

    Whoops, I’m traveling through Indiana right now and didn’t realize I wasn’t on Central time.  Looks like we got another hour to go.

    You asked, and I provided my estimate for the 2022 OD Payroll.

    Do you have one at this point?

     

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