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114 Top Notch

About FriendlyNorthsider

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    Great Falls (R)
  1. FriendlyNorthsider

    GT 4/16: Rays at Sox, 1:10 CT

    What's awesome about Liam is that he has the mental toughness to close out games even when he doesnt have his best stuff or isnt getting results. He has a 2.4 WHIP and is 4/5 in Save situations. The Velo is still where it needs to be so I'm not worried hell get back to his usual self. Kimbrel's fastball is down a MPH since last year (1.4 MPH since 2020) which makes me a bit less confident that he will outperform his metrics this year
  2. FriendlyNorthsider

    A's interested in Andrew Vaughn/Sox in Montas

    I said this on the other threat regarding Vaughn but I'll say it again here. The Sox should not trade Vaughn unless the return is absolutely silly (something like Montas + Murphy + Pache) despite the obvious need for pitching. Montgomery or Kath? Sure. Those guys are in the next wave and the Sox are in a title window. Jose Rodriguez , Sheets, or Burger? Fine. They'll all likely be solid big leaguers but wont be part of the "core". This would very much be like trading Eloy for Quintana. If you're going to trade a future star like Vaughn it should be for a Scherzer type player. "Cost-Controlled" pitchers are somewhat overrated in my opinion. You can easily lose an entire "cost-controlled" year to TJ and unlike hitters, the decline of pitchers tends to be much steeper than hitters. That isn't to say that cost-controlled pitching isn't extremely important/valuable, but the price to acquire it makes it a huge gamble. I would much rather see what the Sox have with Cueto and let Lopez cover some starts until Gio and Lynn get back. The offense is going to bail them out of enough games to make it worth just waiting and seeing how bad the need for pitching is. A package around some of the lesser prospects should help get a guy that can tread water in the meantime should the Cueto experiment blow up. I'm all for picking up a player to keep Gio, Lynn, and Cease fresh and to keep Keuchel from reaching 160 IP. Trading Vaughn to get Montas after not even offering the QO is inexcusable. Look at what the QO is doing to Conforto's value (combined with his shoulder). Im not sure teams wouldve staked the money AND a draft pick on Rodon, but I digress. The point is that I dont think a team competing for a world championship should trade a top pick and likely franchise cornerstone for a 3 starter (albiet a very solid one). I would rather pay for a top flight rental that'll be a Game 2 starter behind Gio.
  3. FriendlyNorthsider

    3/28 | Padres vs White Sox | 3:05PM CT | ESPN1000

    Him and Vaughn can have a group therapy session
  4. FriendlyNorthsider

    Andrew Vaughn hurts hip pointer, out 1-2 weeks per White Sox

    This just absolutely sucks. I pretend to know a lot of things but won’t pretend to know whether this actually is a dislocation or something less serious. Vaughn is a guy the Sox absolutely cannot trade. If the Sox sign conforto and have to keep Vaughn in AAA for a bit to get him regular Abs before the playoffs so be it. Learning a new position (on a few weeks notice) while you’re getting your first taste of big league pitching is an impossible task. His ability to hit at/near league average while guys like Kelenic took months to adjust was impressive. He never made excuses and worked his ass off in the field to make some serious improvements throughout the year. The hitting fell off big time, but that is somewhat expected considering what he was asked to do. Watching his hitting stroke in ST made me realize that he’s so close to making the jump as a hitter. Vaughn will be a plug and play first baseman for the next decade I would bet the house on it. The exit velocity and plate discipline combo is elite. He has a ton of value as a first baseman so the outfield experiment should be over. Even as a righty first baseman I feel confident that the Vaughn is the third best player in that draft behind Rutch and Witt.
  5. FriendlyNorthsider

    Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

    I think Villar is actually a perfect fit for the Cubs. Hoerner and Madrigal are injury prone, Simmons can’t hit, and Wisdom is prone to slumps against righties. Happ is the only other lefty in the lineup (Heyward doesn’t count) so he’ll get a lot of play. I would take the over on 400 Pas between 2B, SS, and 3B
  6. FriendlyNorthsider

    Suzuki to Cubs/5 years

    My hope is that he’s closer to a young Hideki Matsui as opposed to Kosuke. This is the first thing I’ve been excited about Cub wise since we signed Yu Darvish. I’ve been following Japanese baseball avidly since Kosuke and have even been to two Japanese World Series. Conforto is probably a better player and the draft pick compensation isn’t a concern for a team in their window like the Sox. Conforto makes much more sense and I’m hoping the Sox get him and trade for Castillo
  7. FriendlyNorthsider

    Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

    I'm usually less doom-and-gloom then most here (largely because I like the Sox and don't love them like you all do, but I cant really understand what Hahn is doing. I'm a little late to this discussion so I'm going to go back a bit. I didn't like the decision to not send Rodon a QO at the time and it obviously looks like a poor decision now. "Worst" case in extending the offer is that you have a guy that finished top 5 in the CY voting back for 1 year 18 million. More likely than not, he would've rejected the offer to try and get a little more security in a pitching-poor free agency. The Sox are not in a position to be turning away Comp picks at the moment. Beyond that, we have no idea how Kopech will hold up getting stretched out without a true off-season. If the money was the issue, then why choose to pick up Kimbrel's option. If the plan was to sign Kelly and Graveman then why pick up Kimbrel's contract unless you were sure he had surplus value. I hope I am wrong and that Hahn has a buyer for Kimbrel out there. The problem is that the buyer needs to come before Castellanos, Schwarber, and Conforto go off the board unless JR is willing to sign off on approaching the Tax. I'd be curious if the Sox wouldve been able to pick up Winkler on the cheap if they could pick up his contract. The Sox are still by far the best team in the ALC and it's not like the rest of the AL has gotten better. I just hope there is a Kimbrel trade / Conforto signing coming to make this make more sense
  8. FriendlyNorthsider

    The MLB lockout is lifted!

    I think a decent compromise would be to allow shift changes in the 7th inning for at least this year. That way it speeds up the game while giving teams and players and off-season to see how it affects certain players performance. The exxagerated shift basically ended Mark Teixeira's career. 2003-2009 BABIP .308 2010-2016 BABIP .246 The hard contact % and spray charts were essentially unchanged. Of note for the Sox is that Grandal faced the 4th highest shift percentage (94.3%) of players with at least 200 PAs. Grandal had 16 left handed plate appearances without a shift so it's hard to know what the impact on him would be.
  9. FriendlyNorthsider

    ZiPs Top 100

    I figured Ramos would be around 20 considering ZiPS has him as a 3 WAR player in 2024 with 31 Homers in 530 PAs. I can't wait to see what he looks like this year when he's (hopefully) healthy. I was hoping Fangraphs would include Ramos on their "Picks to click" in 2023 list, but no such luck.
  10. FriendlyNorthsider

    Your Top 20 Sox Prospects

    I like both of the lists posted, although I think Burger at 19 is way too low especially considering that there are 15 more DH spots to fill. I think this system is pretty top heavy with a significant drop off after around 10 or 11. I basically put them in these categories: Long-term Upside Bats: Montgomery and Kath Its way too early to make any sort of predictions for these two, but they were highly regarded picks that did nothing to dampen the excitement. An aggressive and optimistic schedule for these two would have them up in 2025, so these two will be part of the next wave assuming they arent moved in the more immediate title window Short-Term/ Decent Upside: Colas, Cespedes, Rodriguez and Ramos These four have some pretty solid upside and can possibly contribute by the end of 2023. Colas' readiness is pure guesswork at this point, but he was successful in Japan as a 20 year old which is impressive. I watched Cespedes a few times last year and thought he moved very well in the outfield. Cespedes might be a decent barometer for what we might expect from Colas after a year out of competitive baseball. Yoelquis showed impressive power and speed but the K and BB rates were less than ideal. I can only imagine hell improve after getting some reps last year. Rodriguez had a break out year last year and may been the long term answer at 2B. As said before, ZiPS LOVES Bryan Ramos. Ramos is entering his age 20 season and despite never playing above high A, ZiPS has him as a 0.8 WAR player next year which is hugely impressive. What prompts the all caps LOVES in the previous sentence is that ZiPS has him as a 2.9 WAR player in 2024. Szymborski is releasing his ZiPS top 100 prospects next week and I wouldnt be surprised to see him included considering hes projected to be a near all-star at 22. Lower Upside bats that are ready: Adolfo and Burger Neither figures to be an all-star but both could be a big factor this year. Burger is a tier above Adolfo and is more of a "prospect", but I can see either playing a role in 2022. Adolfo needs baseball to start back up more than anybody because he needs to make the most of his spring training audition. Pitchers with something to Prove: Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist These three were probably the biggest disappointments of the minor league season last year. Kelley pitched 23.2 innings last season between Kanny and ACL with a 7.61 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP. Thomspon also split time between Kanny and ACL and had a 5.99 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over 73.2 IP. The plus side with Thompson was that he had 78 Ks and that he finished the season on a strong note with 2 scoreless starts (9IP combined) to end the year. Dalquist pitched exclusively in Kanny and had a 4.99 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over 83 innings. He struck out 79 but walked a pretty disappointing 56 batters. He also only gave up 1 homer despite a relatively high fly ball rate (he had a 5.94 xFip The positive on each of these guys is that they were young for Kannapolis and that Kanny was a tire fire last year and nobody really succeeded. Theyre also all prep-guys that lost a year to COVID so it isnt too big of a surprise that they struggled. If they dont make a step forward this year, the worrying can begin. High Upside pitcher : Vera I couldn't put Vera in the same category as they guys above him, despite not taking TOO much stock in his DSL dominance last year. He's probably on the same timeline as them, but I think at this point his upside is just way more believable. He is 6'4 200 with a rocket arm, multiple quality pitches, and by all accounts a very repeatable delivery. All of that suggests that he can stay a starter and can be challenged in the next year. Despite a lack of a consensus top 100 guy (or really any top 100 guy) the Sox are not your typical 30th ranked farm. The upper levels are very weak pitching wise and the Sox are pretty tapped out on upper level hitting prospects beyond Rodriguez and Burger, but there is a good core of under 20 talent in the system. With some success in the draft and IFA market the Sox could be back in the middle of the pack sooner than later. I could see pathways for any of Montgomery, Kath, Ramos, Rodriguez, Colas, and Vera (outside chance of Cespedes) to make the top 100 in 2023. Vera and Ramos have the most helium and Kath and Montgomery have the prospect pedigree working for them. Colas and Rodriguez are guys that are probably inside most evaluator's top 150 and are a good season away from being bumped up.
  11. FriendlyNorthsider

    White Sox sign Leury Garcia to 3 year deal

    Thats a W for the good guys. For those concerned, I think 5.5M a year falls into the supersub category of spending. But it's a nice chunk of change for a guy who had made 11 Million over the past 9 years in the bigs.
  12. FriendlyNorthsider

    Report: MLB used two baseballs last year

    I think the Field of Dreams game got the home run balls
  13. FriendlyNorthsider

    White Sox sign Leury Garcia to 3 year deal

    Soxtalk the only place where you get hundreds of comments in minutes complaining about signing a guy who was worth 2+ WAR last year before any financial details come out. I love this place
  14. FriendlyNorthsider

    Javy Baez Signs 6YR 140M Deal with Tigers - Morosi

    FWIW, 58 of his 68 (85%) homers in the last 3 years would have been out at Comerica. All of his 189 Ks last year would also play at that park. For comparison, 42 of Eloys 55 (76%) wouldve went out at that park.
  15. FriendlyNorthsider

    Javy Baez Signs 6YR 140M Deal with Tigers - Morosi

    well shit, I couldve saved myself some time...