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mac9001

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Everything posted by mac9001

  1. mac9001

    President Donald Trump: The Thread

    QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 15, 2017 -> 10:39 PM) The crazy thing is because of redistricting/gerrymandering (and the number of "safe" districts on BOTH sides) that the Dems still have probably only a 50/50 shot at winning back the House in 2018. That was part of the reason I had my doubts, but as I sit here today there's no doubt in my mind they're going to win the house back and probably convincingly. The level of damage Trump has inflicted to the Republican party has already reached a breaking point and he still has a year left. I've had similar discussions and fell back on a belief that there wasn't sufficient backlash against the greater Republican establishment in the way the Tea Party represented a clear rejection of the policies being enacted by liberals. While the Republicans don't have any legislative achievements to create a similar liberal backlash they will eventually contribution to the damage Trump has inflicted by some degree of legislative political overreach. At this point in Obama's presidency there wasn't a overwhelming fear of a Republican mid-term wave, the fact we're sitting here and discussing that distinct possibility so early is a bad sign for Republican political prospects. One issue that has plagued Democrats despite their voting success with minorities is they've never really over performed from a demographic standpoint with the exception of an increased turnout rate amount African Americans during the Obama years. With the events that transpired today it gives Democrats a powerful message; if you're not white, we're your only hope. That's not a very good message, but fear is an equally powerful motivating factor to hope.
  2. mac9001

    President Donald Trump: The Thread

    It's amazing how much damage Trump has managed in his short tenure in office. I didn't think Democrats had much of a chance in the 2018 mid-terms, but at this rate Trump will single handily deliver a wave in the Democrats favor. They don't even need a message or platform, they can stand ideally by and just let Trump continue his unraveling. Looking back I clearly gave the man too much credit. The signs of his bigotry were there, but when you put it on display in blatant fashion during a televised press conference it's completely unforgivable. I've been of the opinion he still had time to turn things around and establish some credibility to his presidency. But after today it's over, his political career is done, and it's now just a matter of how many people he's taking with him.
  3. mac9001

    Updated Fangraphs Top 10 Sox Prop

    The thing with Giolito is when you catch him on a good day he looks overwhelmingly dominant. The hitters don't stand a chance. Those have been far and few between, but it leaves an impression when you catch him on the right day. Maybe it takes him a few years to really figure it out, but those flashes of dominance leave a lasting impact.
  4. mac9001

    8/14 Games

    QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 14, 2017 -> 08:20 PM) Not sure pitching in Charlotte would be pretty for him. If he comes down to him or Danish for the last Charlotte rotation spot i'd rather give it to Spence and see how it goes.
  5. mac9001

    when can Sox contend?

    I would say 2020 is a much more realistic prediction for playoff contention. We're likely to be bad next year (bottom 5) and we'll (hopefully) have a decent amount of young talent hitting the bigs in 2019. Thus the type of deal/FA acquisitions to push the team into contention may not happen until after the 2019 season.
  6. mac9001

    President Donald Trump: The Thread

    QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 8, 2017 -> 11:08 PM) I'm a lot more worried about the North Korean leader. He is a powerderkeg just dying to flick some nukes at the USA and South Korea. All he has to do to be remembered forever is start the war that begins the end of humanity as we know it. He's nutty enough to do it. If he sends a nuke our way, we will literally blow that country off the map and that means S. Korea will be blown off the map too. At that point China and Russia decide what to do. If the North Korean nukes cause a lot of damage in the USA ... wow. North Korean leaders have been making idiotic provocative statements for 60 years. It's part of their standard political modus operandi. When our leaders try to beat them at their own game it's time for genuine concern. Unfortunately that seems to be the path we're likely headed.
  7. mac9001

    Who Should Be In The Lineup Next Year?

    As long as Giolito isn't getting completely lit up in spring training you figure they'll give him a rotation spot. Rodon Shields Lopez Giolito Scrub Vet It's going to be interesting trying to figure out the whole org depth chart for starting pitchers. It's kinda of insane but it's entirely possible we'll be starting a legit prospect with no org fillers top to bottom through the entire organization.
  8. mac9001

    Reverse Standings Thread

    QUOTE (Soha @ Aug 6, 2017 -> 07:08 PM) If Lopez comes up and pitches well, Giolito maybe makes the team and does well, Rodon continues his progress....I think it's very possible this team falls in the 5-10 range next year. The SP stands a chance of being improved tremendously. Young hard throwers generally struggle their fist go around in the bigs and even if they pitch well unless you spend $50 million on the bullpen we'll still have a pretty terrible all around staff.
  9. mac9001

    8-4 Games

    Fulmer's stuff looks a little better today. He's throwing his fastball by hitters and is locating the breaking ball a bit better.
  10. mac9001

    Lets Catch up from the last few Days

    QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Aug 4, 2017 -> 03:55 PM) I don't agree with that. Kopech is in AA, Giolito and Lopez in AAA...Id say their top end talent is fairly spread out. There's a good chance at least one of those three guys fails miserably at the major league level and spends the next few years as AAA fodder. I'm not even going to start getting overly optimistic on anyone until they can handle AA ball. Young prospects with projectability are fun to stockpile and watch. But at this point there's a much better chance Delmonico reaches 1000 PAs in the bigs than Rutherford or Adolfo. They're still so far away their likeihood of success is fairly low.
  11. mac9001

    Lets Catch up from the last few Days

    QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Aug 4, 2017 -> 03:00 PM) Like who Our top 30 list is loaded with dudes in A ball or lower, it stands to reason a lot of these guys are going to fail and become upper minors filler.
  12. mac9001

    Lets Catch up from the last few Days

    QUOTE (BamaDoc @ Aug 4, 2017 -> 01:07 PM) Our low levels are full of prospects. Upper levels there a smattering of prospects but a lot of filler. Gonna take awhile, longer than I had hoped. Hate to be the pessimist but a lot of these prospects will become filler at the upper levels.
  13. mac9001

    Will Michael Kopech get to AAA this year?

    There's a decent chance he gets shut down around 120 inning mark. Give him a couple more starts in B-ham and call it a year.
  14. mac9001

    Who Should Be In The Lineup Next Year?

    QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 31, 2017 -> 02:45 PM) Hope you judge our precious prospects as harshly after 300 or so at bats. I think it would be so cool for Davidson to hit 30 home runs and have people laugh at him like that's nothing. Please hit 30 home runs. His stats tell everything in his first season in the majors. OK, please judge all our prospects the same way. Oh wait, Davidson I guess is old at 26. I can understand only being excited about the prospects, but I stand by what I say if he hits 30 home runs that is a very very nice figure for a first-year player. Obviously i forgot about Judge and some of the other rookies in saying he's rookie of the year if he gets to 30 hrs, but my gosh I can't understand the double standard on here. I guarantee you if Rutherford hits 30 home runs his first year or Robert or any one of our darling prospects people will overlook the bad statgeek categories and only praise the prospect and Hahn. It's all up to Davidson to help me out here, get up to 30 home runs instead of staying stuck at 21 the final eight weeks. The difference between Davidson and whomever we call up next is Davidson never deserved major league at bat's anyway. His minor league numbers did not justify a promotion. He got a chance and he's hit a bunch of home runs. He's made a good showing out of an unearned opportunity. Problem is his numbers are not sustainable and far exceed his previous career norms. He will not keep hitting home runs on flyballs at his current rate. He will not continue to post absurdly low infield fly ball ratios. He will not maintain his current level of hard hit balls. He likely will see a regression in his BABIP and subsequently his batting average. But he may continue to strike out nearly 40% of the time making his margin for offensive success incredibly thin. Then there's the issue of defense. He hasn't played enough in the field to give him a fair shake, but at best he's neutral in terms of defensive value.
  15. mac9001

    Who Should Be In The Lineup Next Year?

    QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Jul 31, 2017 -> 10:21 AM) KC would have given up on Moustakis after his first several years in the majors where he was hitting for low average and did not put up big power numbers. I find it somewhat contradictory to be all in on a rebuild that involves developing players from within, and then complaining about Davidson who is in his first full season in the majors and has already shown great improvement. Anyway, as far as 2018, IMHO, the composition of the starting rotation and bullpen will dictate whether or not the team can be competitive. If it looks like what we have now, it will be another sorry season. On the other hand, if they bring up Giolito, Kopec, Reynaldo Lopez z(and they start dealing) and then stabilize the bullpen with a few relievers, the record is going to improve over what we have this season. Our pitching staff now is a joke. Moustakas has a career K-rate of 15%, Matt Davidson is at 39.1% so far this year. They are in no way comparable. Moustakas was always a within reach of being a relatively decent hitter with a slight change to his approach and a little luck. Davidson needs to mash HRs at elite rates just to just to stay relevant offensively. He's one bad 10 game slump away from being irrelevant offensively and he's yet to prove he's capable of providing any value defensively.
  16. mac9001

    Who Should Be In The Lineup Next Year?

    QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 30, 2017 -> 11:46 PM) What if he gets sufficient at bats the next eight weeks to hit 30 homers in his rookie season. No props at all? A stern shake of your head saying, 'he's a stiff?' Just curious. Part of my argument is giving Davidson the 30 homers and what you'd think of him then. I'd buy him a beer in a bar for sure. I'll buy him the 2nd round. But the odds are highly against his current HR rate continuing and by all indications he's been lucky to hit .240. So far there's nothing to indicate he's likely to have sustained major league success.
  17. mac9001

    Who Should Be In The Lineup Next Year?

    QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 30, 2017 -> 11:33 PM) OMG. You are going to criticize a 26 year old rookie who hits 30 home runs in his first showing in the bigs? I love Moncada, but lets say over the next eight weeks he gets about 8 hits and continues to hit .100. Would u dare criticize him? Don't you see the cliche aspect of what you are saying? All these recent trades and these players we got are beloved. Davidson 'could' hit 30 fricking home runs in his debut season? If he does, my gosh, he deserves rookie of the year. How many rookies hit 30 fricking home runs? Cmon people, does nobody support me on this?? At the rate Davidson is striking out he'll likely be hitting .180 or less soon. His HR to flyball rate is also uncharacteristically high. There's nothing about his current stats that indicates its sustainable. I'd put his odds of being waived at about 50% by this time next year.
  18. mac9001

    Attendance Thread II

    QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 30, 2017 -> 08:14 PM) I really wonder if Illinois will risk losing the Sox over a stadium? I would venture to say the prospect of using public funds will become less likely with each passing year. If they can't get a deal with the city in the next 5 years the odds of it happening 10-20 years down the line are probably lesser.
  19. mac9001

    Melky Cabrera Traded To Royals

    QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 30, 2017 -> 01:55 PM) Or if they fix whatever is wrong with him ala Tommy Kahnle. Just looking at his numbers is doesn't seem like there's something glaringly wrong. Looks like he's gotten a little hit around and he's had some bad luck, but he's got the stuff and peripherals that indicate he should be more successful. 9.14 K/9 2.42 BB/9 3.98 FIP 3.62 xFIP But .348 BABIP 65.6 LOB%
  20. mac9001

    Melky Cabrera Traded To Royals

    QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 30, 2017 -> 01:06 PM) Davis is the definition of a fringe prospect. Puckett is the real asset here. I actually remember Puckett making a start against the Dash earlier in the year, he pitched well but was pretty unimpressive stuff wise (i think he topped out around 90). Davis is a bit old and hasn't had any real success but a 6-6 lefty with a mid 90s fastball at least has some intrigue.
  21. mac9001

    Melky Cabrera Traded To Royals

    Out of the two I think I might like this Davis kid a bit more. Big lefty with a decent fastball who's throws strikes. Looks like he's had some bad luck this year but I hope they give him a chance to start.
  22. mac9001

    7/29 Games

    Connor Walsh has big time fastball (98-99).
  23. mac9001

    7/29 Games

    QUOTE (beautox @ Jul 29, 2017 -> 07:49 PM) Well fulmer's start went sideways in a hurry 6IP 9H 6ER 1BB 2HRA 6SO Cease with another hit and walk up to 5IP and 7SO At this point i don't care if he gets shelled as long as he's not walking guys. Baby steps.
  24. mac9001

    7/29 Games

    The Dash got no-hit.
  25. mac9001

    Who Should Be In The Lineup Next Year?

    QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Jul 29, 2017 -> 06:02 PM) Its not rushing. Kopech could easily be 100% ready this time next year (in fact, that's his exact trajectory) and Jimenez was considered by the Cubs MLB ready. They just didnt have a spot for him. Jimenez at the very least is forcing a AA callup (you could argue the Sox are wasting time and hurting his development leaving him in W-S much longer), and from there it's only one step to AAA. See what Boston did with Devers? It's not out of the ordinary to rocket a guy up to the majors who is playing well enough to justify such a quick ascension. That's exactly what it is, an exception derived from Boston's desperation to win now and unwillingness to give up value in the trade market. They're rushing the development of this kid because they're trying to win now. You're still not accepting the fact there's no one in the Sox front office that's going to be advocating pursing a win now strategy. Most of them will probably be fairly content finishing last as that's probably exactly what they expect and that's what Jerry, Kenny and Rick have all agreed to.
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