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mac9001

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Posts posted by mac9001


  1. 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

    While these are true, there's also some serious weirdness in Jose Abreu's numbers this year. 

    Abreu is showing a career low in launch angle of 9.5 degrees which is on the lower side of the league. 

    Abreu has a high ground ball rate, in the highest 10% of the league. Highest of his career.

    Abreu is at the very bottom of the league in line drive rate. Lowest of his career by almost a factor of 2.

    There is absolutely an indication that Jose Abreu is doing something quite screwed up at the plate. He may be hitting the ball as hard as he has in his career, he is also hitting those balls on the ground or hitting them straight up rather than driving them. 

    League average on grounders is about .240, he's at .196.

    League average on fly balls is .220, he's at .179.

    He should be roughly 40-50 points higher on his average just on the grounder and fly balls. Given how hard he's hitting the ball he should be outperforming the league average on both grounders and fly balls. 

    Where he is struggling and why the power output is lower is his line drive rate is down to about 12.5% (career avg is 20.6%). Expected average on a line drive is about .700. 

    So he's hitting most of his balls on the ground or in the air but not on a line. The outcomes on those should be better than what we've seen, but his HR and double output is a cause for concern as he's not hitting line drives. This is still a relatively small sample size. If he continues to hit the ball hard and his line drive rate recovers to what we've seen in his career he numbers will stabilize. What makes the numbers even more stringing is his line drive rate drop to 9.1% at home, and if you keep slicing it down his line drive rates on hard hit balls is only 19% (usually over 30%) and medium EV balls at home it's only 3.7%, historically on medium EV balls his line drive rates would be over 20%. There's just an insane disparity based on his career numbers, expected outcomes and basic probabilities. 

    Overall it's actually quite striking how the Sox are underperforming their career baseline line drive rates. 

    Line Drive Rates

    Abreau -- Career: 20.6%, Best: 23.6%, 2022: 12.5%

    Robert -- Career: 23.3%, Best: 26.4%, 2022: 21.2%

    Moncada -- Career: 23.4%, Best: 26.6%, 2022: 14.3%

    Grandal -- Career: 18.6%, Best: 22.9, 2022: 14.9%

    Pollock -- Career: 19.8%, Best: 23.3%, 2022: 19.7%

    Vaugh -- Career: 19.5%, Best: 19.9%, 2022: 16.7% 

    Harrison - Career: 22.3%, Best: 25.1%, 2022: 8.1%

    I guess not hitting line drives has become contagious. 

     

    The Sox are now 28th in line drive rate.

     

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  2. Jose this year:

    .275 Expected Batting Average (about as high as he's ever been)

    .523 Expected Slugging Percentage (2nd highest after 2020)

    94.3 Average Exit Velocity (highest of career), in the 98% percentile in all of baseball

    9.6% Barrel Rate (career 9.5%)

    55.8% Hard Hit Rate (highest of career), in the 98% percentile in all of baseball

    17.2% K rate - lowest of career

    10.3% Walk rate - highest of career

     

    There's no indication Jose has lost any steam, he's walking more, striking out less, hitting the ball as hard as ever. He just appears to be incredibly unlucky. Historically Jose has generated a lot of his power production off fastballs, this year his SLG on fastballs is .412 with an expected SLG of .599. Thus to be more precise he's been incredibly unlucky on hard hit fastballs.

     

    Here's already had 7 pitches that had a hit probability over 90% go for outs. In all of 2021 he 14 pitches that had a 90% hit probability go for outs. He keeps his current bad luck pace up this year and he'll end up with 33-34 hard hits balls that are hits 90% of the time.

     

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  3. 2 minutes ago, wegner said:

    I keep watching that play and shaking my head....that truly was a pretty awful effort there by a veteran OF....didn't play the wall well at all.  It also looked like Hendriks thought he gave up a walk off homer there....not a homer but still a walk off.

    Baez hit the ball hard (103.7 EV) on a line. That's a hit 75% of the time, the fact the Pollock even had a chance was relatively lucky. Liam made a bad pitch, left a straight fastball up over the plate and Baez made solid contact. The last 3 hits against Liam were all 103.7-104.5 EV, that's 3 really hard hit balls. You're not going to have a lot of success getting hit that hard.

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  4. 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

    So literally the same stuff as last year?

    Just bad luck, solid pitches that statically have very high probabilities of being outs/whiffs. Yet both of them had solid contact with low launch angles which means when they left the bat they were likely to be hits even tough the exit velocity were weak. 

     

    That slider was literarily the last pitch you want to swing at as a hitter. If if had to guess the hit outcome on a pitch like that has to be less than 5%.

     

     


  5. The Bummer hate is totally unfounded. The pitch he made to Baez was pretty solid. Painted the shadow of the zone low and away. Baez made relatively weak contact.  You throw those same 5 pitches every time and 99% of his ABs will be just fine.

     

    image.png

    Grossman AB was a slider low, out of the zone. It had 50in of vertical break which is about as much as you can get on a slider and 18 of horizontal break.  That was a really solid slider that again resulted in weak contact. Throw that pitch 100 times and you'll only have a handful on successful contact events. 

    image.png

     

    He made two solid pitches and the hitters just managed to get enough bat to find a hole. It happens, keep making those pitches and he'll be fine.

     

     

     

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  6. I will say anyone that worried about the Sox pitching depth should take a look around the division. The Guardiana staff is loaded with finesse unproven arms that are highly susceptible to regression. There's a general lack of pitching depth in the whole division. The Sox are still a major injury or two away from not being front runners, but most of the other teams are one injury away from aspiring to be competitive to competing for last place.

     

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  7. Who's to say you can't use him a middle relief depth? In the event Lopez or VV are holding thing's down he's a veteran option over the weak back end of the bullpen. He wouldn't even need to be fully stretched out.


  8. Ironically the Sox spend a small fortune on the bullpen and somehow dropped from #1 to #2 in the MLB annual bullpen rankings. 

    I will say it's very difficult to rank the Sox with confidence as the range of possibilities for some of the the higher end talents is insanely wide. If you get some elite production from our elite talent the Sox can really pile on the wins.

    Would they be willing to let Kopech throw 180+ innings if he's just mowing through hitters? Can you get 6+ WAR seasons out of Robert and Moncada? How productive will Abreu be? 2-3 WAR?

    If you get 12 WAR out of Moncada/Robert the Sox floor likely becomes a top 3 lineup. With a productive Kopech it puts the Sox at potentially 4 pitchers with 4~ WAR aspirations. That's near the top if not the top rotation in baseball. Are we likely to actually have 4 WAR pitchers, probably not. But the fact we have 4 guys with legitimate all star level potential I feel pretty good about the Sox filling out rotation innings. 

     

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  9. 4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

    Why would any franchise move out of one of the largest media markets in the country?

    The Cubs own most of the market value in Chicago. The Sox market value is average at best for a MLB franchise while their stadium and brand value is below average (and probably near the bottom) of MLB franchises. I don't think you can make an argument where the Sox from an overall value perspective would be better off on the south side than Las Vegas.


  10. 6 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

    yup

    Easy to take that perspective after a dude goes under the knife. I would image timing the relative peak value of a prospect is more difficult than timing a peak exit in the stock market. The volatility on prospect value is likely so high I imagine it only takes a few months to gain or lose a significant share of their potential return.

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  11. For the record I don't personally support the MLB being granted an antitrust exemption. But you can look no further than what recently when down with the Rams and Chargers and how the NFL was essentially a spectator with no leverage to enforce their desire for both franchises to stay in their respective cities. The MLB has to literally approve a franchise relocation, the other sports league don't face the same level of legally binding restrictions.


  12. 1 hour ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

    Wait, didn't MLB have an anti-trust exemption when JR threatened to move to Tampa? Isn't there NOW a shitty, dated turd of a stadium in Tampa NOW, because of JR'S threat to move there? Isn't there NOW a crappy (for IL taxpayers) stadium under JR'S control that was built while MLB enjoyed the antitrust exemption? 

    Sorry, but you're flat-out wrong on this issue, full stop.

    Key phrase there is threatened. Without MLB approval his threats were empty. Remove the antitrust exemption and you don't need to negotiate with the MLB. You just pick a city and move.

     

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  13. There's some very valid reasons you can argue against MLB having an antitrust exemption given their treatment (or financial abuse) of minor leaguers. But in an environment where the MLB would need to collectively bargain with MiLB players it would undoubtedly end with significant contraction of current MiLB teams. It would also likely lead to a significant probability of existing franchises moving cities. Take the White Sox and what has now become one of the oldest, most dated stadiums in baseball. They're a perfect candidate to jump ship for a city like Las Vegas if they're offering a substantial stadium subsidy. 

    In the end as a White Sox fan I would be very concerned about the teams future in an environment with no antitrust exemption. The Sox would instantly become a flight risk and they likely wouldn't be willing to commit the additional financial resources to keep their farm system competitive in the absence of the current highly financial favorable situation MLB enjoys with the current system of minor leagues.  


  14. 5 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

    This is a fair argument. But let's take the example of the (non-TOT), but recently departed Carlos Rodon:

    His QO was what, $18.9MM?

    Even if he suggests a 50% loss of production, thats still 2.45 fWAR. At today's $/WAR cost in the FA market, hed still easily be worth the $18.9MM. 

    "But what if he gets hurt," you say?

    Easy: You insure the contract, so you get some of the cash back, and start the year with Kopech in AAA to slowly get stretched out. (You could also have possibly recovered the year of lost control, if memory serves.)

    Then, you could have later brought Kopech up to replace Rodon if Rodon got hurt. 

     

    That said,you are correct. A TOR SP does come with a premium that could erode cost-efficiency if things go sideways. (See: Keuchel, or Bauer)

     

    I would have been fine with Rodon at the QO, but we correctly assumed he would likely find enough of a market to surpass the QO. At roughly 44M the risk is almost absurdly high given his health history. I'll take a league avg 2B and RP over Rodon any day.

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  15. The overallocation of available capital to the bullpen does look like a poor value strategy. But the risk with paying a premium for a TOR is likely to yield an equally poor value outcome. They can still find decent value for OF ABs, but they needed to fill bodies at 2B and a bullpen role and they did. The White Sox never have a strategy based on aggressively presuming a legitimate title contender. It's always a half assed approach that mainly yields lower risk investments. Since they're not willing to commit the resources to build a legitimate contender these half ass moves will suffice for now.

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  16. While the Sox may be deserving of a last place ranking I love that the system is stacked with a lot of guys that can hit 96, 97, 98 on a gun. There's a lot of young guys with some big arms and if we hit on a few we won't care it was a last place ranked system. 

    The beauty of baseball is a last ranked system with a middle ranked dude like Lambert still somehow finds a way to have a solid 10 year MLB career. We might be last, but for a last place system I feel surprisingly optimistic.


  17. My issue with Hahn and the Sox in general is they always take a half assed approach to going all in. I think the Lynn trade was the type of move you make after you've already added a quality arm. Kimbrel would have been the perfect move (given the cost) once you've added an impact bat. If you're going to give away two quality mlb ready assets like the Sox did then leverage the farm and upgrade everything you can and we absolutely could have found a way to expand the deal to include Bryant. I would prefer when you make moves like this it was part of a larger more aggressive strategy. 

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