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joeynach

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Everything posted by joeynach

  1. Nothing to be said in the Bull James handbook or the SSS article about his use of sacrifices or number of times he risked giving an out away? One of my issues with Ventura was what I would call lack of attention to detail and player tendency. For example, two outs Rios on 1st, Dunn at the plate, and Rios is stealing second. Whether Ventura called the steal or his player did it on his own, he needs to reign this kind of bone headedess in either case. When you have a true three outcome player at the plate with two outs why are you risking running into an out to advance a runner into scoring position. The hitter is the most egregious example of walk, home run, or strikeout. So naturally with 2 outs you are looking for a 2 run homer or walk to extend the inning, not risk an out for a scoring position attempt so that a low outcome scenario (a base hit) will result in a run scored. Its stuff like this which drove me crazy all year.
  2. I don't think its a poor strategy on the part of the White Sox to consider trading Sale if they can get a monster return that will anchor 3-4 positions with impressive young talent for the future. I think of things like when the Rangers traded Mark Texeria to the Braves and received Holland, Feliz, and Andrus. Similar concept here. The White Sox have so many needs in their starting nine, such a long way to go. I think the correct model of building a winner, is similar to what you saw the Nationals do, get the young core in place, get em to the major leagues, let em develop a bit, and then BOOM you add talent around it via free agency and trades to build a WS contender. If trading Sale could get us 3-4 positions locked down for 6+ years of control with that core of young talent we need I would do it in a heartbeat and I think Hahn would too. It's just a matter of does that monster haul of young players exist out there. And to be honest if the Cubs were willing to trade Soler, Baez, and Kris Bryant for Sale I would do it if I were Hahn. It would really open up the organization to ancillary moves to rebuild around a young talented trio on it way up.
  3. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 6, 2013 -> 11:01 AM) By my quick and dirty math, the Sox can add nearly $70M to payroll from where it stands now meaning the options they have at their disposal are too numerous to mention. Should be a fun offseason. The White Sox will not be fixed with a spending spree on FA's without a young talented core in place first, similar to how the current Nationals have been constructed. I think most Sox fans think like the Sox front office, most larger scale FA contracts, especially for players over the age of 30, are viewed as mistakes in hindsight.
  4. I think he is talking about some charity softball game taking place with a lot of 90s white sox players coming back to participate.
  5. We have a career .251/.315/.385 hitter having an obvious career year at .320/.344/.420. If I am Rick Hahn I am definitely calling the Blue Jays to see if they are indeed still interested and try and pry a couple top prospects loose from the Jays. No better time to sell than selling high!
  6. QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 05:44 PM) I hope we do not find out. Are you kidding me. I pray Rick Hanh is working the phones and placing calls on Sale. I wouldn't publicly shop him and say flood me with calls. But I would call a few teams in need of SP that you have a good relationship with and see if those select few would like to work out a package for Sale. I am talking the type of haul the Rangers got for Mark Texeria; Derek Holland, Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus. If Hahn can get that kind of package for Sale you 100% trade him, even though he has a team friendly deal. This team is bad and with no real talent in the minor leagues penciled in for roles with the big league club if you can get three for one here you do it. This team is a lot closer to a cubs like tear down and rebuild than they are to building around Sale to compete in the next 2-3 years. Sale is the one piece than can accelerate the tear down and rebuild ten fold.
  7. Who cares he is a bad manager who makes bad managing decisions. He doesn't value outs. He tries to setup sacrifices by players who can't, he calls for sacrifices when the players coming up have a low propensity to produce the run from the sacrifice (fly ball or base hit), he trots out guys like Nate Jones who have a high propensity to go ball 1,2,3 in bases loaded situations, he still thinks Matt Thornton must be throwing 97 with a 12.0 K/9, he loves to call for steals ahead of players like Dunn who are true three outcome, negating any value in the steal even if they don't get thrown out. I would prefer him to leave and Rick Hahn to hire someone that fits his bill, someone whose attention to detail and modern metrics is superb. Someone who wants to put in the time to follow an organization and developmental protocol and strategy. Like how Theo hired Sveum or how Cherington hired Farrell. When RV leaves I will cheer.
  8. QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 24, 2013 -> 07:45 AM) Of course, it's almost AS BAD that our best player isn't thinking at all about the situation... Knowing how Dunn has been going, and Ramirez? Ventura commented about "cleaning things up," and yet if he's not going to play "kindergarten cop/teacher," what's going to be his response to obvious mental mistakes? Sure, we don't want to take away Rios' aggressiveness and confidence, but what about all the other base-running mistakes and mental lapses in the last 13 games? We always make fun of Ozzie's Camp Cora and the few times during the season where they read the riot act and made them come in on offdays or doing extra work in the morning or before games (bunting practice, for example), but this problem extends far beyond Rios' ill-advised decision. I think its 100% misleading to characterize Dunn as in a slump or "the way hes going right now". Its not just your post, I hear it from our broadcasters, the media, other posters, etc. Why can't someone just call it like it is, whatever has happened to Dunn has been self inflicted, he did this to himself, along with our non pitch count working believer of a genius hitting coach in Manto. They created this organically. This "new approach" has just traded the hitter and team benefits of walks & deeper counts, for swinging more earlier to create earlier outs. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adam-dunns-failed-experiment/
  9. QUOTE (Disco72 @ Apr 23, 2013 -> 09:02 PM) So, it turns out RV didn't call the Rios steal with Dunn batting: http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpos...mp;city=chicago Thank goodness, I was hoping he couldn't be that clueless.
  10. QUOTE (greg775 @ Apr 23, 2013 -> 10:07 PM) Sox need to have a team meeting with Manto and discuss approach. These 1 and 2 pitch at bats have to stop. The team needs to get its head out of its collective ass hitting wise AND DEFENSIVE WISE and start playing baseball or it's gonna be a long long summer. --p.s. I would love for you all to answer this question honestly. Do you miss AJP? My answer is a resounding "yes" especially after last night's game-winning home run. The man is a winner by and large. For a one year contract, yeah I miss AJ. And OMG I couldn't agree with you more on Manto. Where does he get off thinking he is above and beyond modern intelligent thinking when it comes to hitting. From day one there was a red flag. I remember him on 670 the Score essentially trashing the see more pitches, work more counts, value player and team OBP theory of offense. Nevermind, the ancillary benefits of such an approach such as driving up pitch counts, tiring the pitcher earlier (elevated pitches, bullpen earlier), or of course the idea of placing hitters in more predictable hitting friendly counts. I was dumbfounded KW approved this hire. Look at what his approach has done to Dunn in just three weeks worth of playing time.
  11. QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Apr 23, 2013 -> 02:41 PM) My head is spinning from all these numbers. I always hated statistics. You can interpret them anyway you want. I just prefer to PLAY BALL! Is that you Hawk Harrelson?
  12. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 23, 2013 -> 10:30 AM) This post is ridiculous because you are talking about ceilings and then lowering the ceiling. Using the averages provided - I like those numbers - here's about what you'd see. Beckham hits .275, he's almost certain to walk atleast to career averages, if not better. That's a .340 OBP. He'd also, inevitably, hit for more power too, which will increase his Iso. He's a .775 OPS player at .275. Tyler Flowers walks a lot and hits for a lot of power. If he hits .250, he's going to have a .350 OBP and a .500 slugging. I really see no way around it. He's an .850 OPS player at his ceiling. I'm going to tackle Jeff Keppinger before Viciedo, because both are absolutely hilarious and terrible projections. For Keppinger, I will agree that his ceiling is about a .300 average in this park. To put up an IsoOBP of .020, his walk rate would have to be 2.9%. He doesn't walk a lot, but with a career walk rate of 6.4%, it's safe to say that he'd probalby put up a .340 OBP at the bare minimum if he hit .300 (that's 19 walks over the course of 650 PA's. He tried to do that in 2011 at 3%...but that's till better than 2.9%). Which brings me to the Viciedo projection of .300/.310 and I'm stopping right there, because that would mean he'd walk like 9 times over the course of 650 PAs or, in 500 PAs, he's going to walk or be hit by a pitch 7 times. He's not a very patient hitter, but that's just not going to happen. He's also not a .300 hitter. If he did, he'd put up an OPS of around .850. You have De Aza's ceiling at .290/.340/.400, but he put up .280/.350/.410 last year. Keep lowering that ceiling. Flowers, Viciedo, and Beckham have legitimately high ceilings as all around players. Alexei is primarily here to hit for a decent average and play slick defense. De Aza is a perfectly good player, especially at his ceiling. However, you are extremely unlikely to see players' ceilings and rather their medians, which is exactly what you see. Sometimes, when they go through rough stretches, you see their floors too. This is not an exciting team and in fact is a boring team that is likely going to finish around .500 (though I think they'll still end up around 83-85 wins), but to suggest that these guys have low ceilings is absurd. I am glad you mentioned the ceilings of Konerko, Dunn, and Rios though. Oh, and the ceiling of the pitching staff too. Do you realize the discrepancies between the numbers I threw out there and the numbers you threw out there is so small, there isn't enough enough potential production to get excited about. If this teams loses 70 something games and we go with your ceiling numbers there still isn't enough there to keep watching or be excited about for the future. And if we meet in the middle, forget about it, we are still talking about a starting lineup now and looking forward that is the same slew of slightly above average players if we use (potential) OPS as the metric. And if we look at their peripherals we are still talking about a slew of hitters who have established themselves in all the same light; low BB (OBP) rate, high K rate, low pitch count see'ers, high Swing %, high swing miss %, decent power. And lets forget about ceilings for the moment. Lets look at career slash lines and see what we got with this lineup. De Aza: .276/.338/.413/.751 Keppinger: .284/.332/.390/.722 Rios: .279/.325/.446/.771 Konerko: .283/.359/.498/.857 Dunn: .238/.368/.496/.864 Viciedo: .261/.332/.435/.737 Ramirez: .276/.316/.409/.726 Flowers: .208/.307/.401/.708 Beckham: .246/.312/.381/.693 I see six of the nine players in this lineup with career OBP of below .340, what I would call league average. Of those six I see three with below dismal OBP level I will .320. In terms of OPS Bill James describes anything between .700-.766 as "average". I see that we have six of these players as "average". Of those Six, I see two of them at or near the dismal level, Flowers and Beckham, at .708 and .693. As this team is constructed, hypothetical ceilings aside, this team is designed to have an extremely mediocre offense at best, it is a team that will by its composed parts struggle to get on base (and thus produce runs), and has a cast of younger "developing" players who all have the exact same hitting identity (low batting average, low OBP, decent power). And, to further compound the offensive output, the complimenting cast around those younger "developing" players is more of the same type of hitters with low BA's, low OBP's, decent power, high K rates, etc etc. This offense is a designed as a disaster on paper and is thus a disaster on the field. So if you take the temperature of the fan base and they say things like there is nothing to be excited about and nothing to look forward to from a developmental hitter perspective you can see where it comes from. Are we really supposed to watch a 75 win team on the hopes that Beckham turns into a .720 OPS player instead of his career .693, that Flowers goes . 740 instead of .708, that Alexei Ramirez has a season that surpasses his career .316 OBP. Hence, nothing really to be excited for!
  13. QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Apr 23, 2013 -> 01:21 PM) Fangraphs. What is the stat called?
  14. QUOTE (greg775 @ Apr 22, 2013 -> 11:11 PM) Man, if you spent the first month of the season in Vegas and bet the under on the Sox, you coulda had a nice little vacation. I was thinking the same thing. Betting on baseball specifically is all about finding and betting a trend. Someone is hot, someone is cold, someone always wins here, someone can't win here. Right now the easy trend to bet is the under in Sox runs and the Under for the game as well since their pitching (and Bullpen) has been great. If you had the stones to do so for the first three weeks of the season you would have a bunch of no sweat easy wins, this team scores a couple runs off 4-5 hits per night consistently......easy money.
  15. QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 23, 2013 -> 09:41 AM) Fine, attendance is irrelevant. We should only judge the team on revenues produced/profits made. Done. I agree with that, knowing what we know about the Sox, from the way they operate, what makes it in the Forbes report, how they publicly discuss finding and maximizing alternative revenue sources constantly.....we should all on this board at least recognize that from a financial/payroll/revenue perspective attendance don't mean squat. Perhaps attendance is more of a revenue driver in other organizations, but it is not with this team.
  16. QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Apr 23, 2013 -> 12:43 AM) Thanks for that...I needed a good laugh! It's so painful watching Thornton any more, especially against division teams who are ready for his limited arsenal. YYYYYEEEEEEPPPPP!!! My gripe is more of the lack of internal recognition of this. Like I was saying from Sox brass (and beat writers alike) everyone still seems to be cool with penciling him into this shut down high leverage reliever role by default. This isn't 2009 anymore, the dude throws 93 and doesn't generate the swings and misses and strikeouts that made him who he was......WHO HE WAS!
  17. QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Apr 22, 2013 -> 11:46 PM) Not to mentioned he is to be garbage in High-Leverage situations, which seems to be when Robin loves to use him.... 2012 - .297 OppAVG, 7.00 ERA, 7 BB, 8 K, 1.44 WHIP, .841 OppOPS 2011 - .303 OppAVG, 4.80 ERA, 9 BB, 10 K, 1.93 WHIP, .838 OppOPS s***, his CAREER ERA in high-leverage situations is 5.98 and that's in 122 IP. Thats awful, where did you pull this high leverage stat from though. I was actually referring to his periphrials and the eye test when I said he shouldn't be used in high leverage situations, but you found some sort of real stat?
  18. QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Apr 22, 2013 -> 09:58 PM) I'm a little drunk(drinking is the only way to make going to these Sox games fun after all)so prepare for the over exaggerations. This team is just awful. This franchise is awful. -Robin Ventura, go the f*** away. You are one incredibly bad manager who almost makes me wish for the days of Ozzie Guillen. Almost. Thank you so much for not signing that extension. - Matt Thornton: How does an 8 year veteran make the mistake of trying to pick someone off second with 2 strikes? Oh, you have no confidence in youself? Don't worry, we have zero confidence in you too. With you 100% on these two points. RV I have seen enough, his baseball acumen, his understanding of game situation, his knowledge of player tendencies, his adaption of some of the newer strategies and information all seem to be well well below average to me. I have seen enough. Thornton, when was the last time he actually threw 96-98 and blew hitters away....2009? I understand velocity's drop as a player ages and the innings pile up, but so should the team's manager, scouts, and GM. However, apparently no one else has noticed this glaring trend as Thornton has continued to be use,d looked at, and penciled in by Sox management and our manager as this same 97-98 blow him away high leverage reliever now for years and he just isn't anymore. He's got no secondary pitch, not one he can throw for strikes, and now that he's throwing 93 not 98 his margin for error is much smaller. Does anyone else want to recognize hes not the same as he used to be and should not be used in need these need a strikeout-high leverage situations against other team's best hitters. Here is Thornton's K/9 rate from 2010 to 2013. 12.02, 9.50. 7.34, 3.68. Here is Thornton's vFB from 2010 to 2013. 96.1, 95.8, 95.0, 93.7 Here is Thornton's Swing Miss % from '10 to '13. 14.9, 10.4, 8.1, 5.2 ENOUGH SAID ON THORNTON!
  19. QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 22, 2013 -> 10:03 PM) Even if they hit better, it's a pretty low ceiling for most of the guys. Yep, whats the ceiling for Beckham, .275/.330/.410/.740, wow. For Flowers .250/.320/.440/.760, great. For Viciedo .300/.310/.450/.760. For Alexei, .285/.325/.420/.745. For Keppinger .300/.320/.400/.720. For De Aza, .290/.340/.400/.740. That seems about right to me, not a guy with a ceiling to me at or above .800 OPS. There just isn't going to be a lot of production now, nor if they all somehow turn it around and hit these numbers. Just a bunch of .750 OPS players.....slightly above average as an all goes well ceiling. Yuck!
  20. This is just getting hilarious. Even to the point where I go to covers.com to see the White Sox vs. the Over/Under. In 17 games going in today, the White Sox are 4-13 against betting the Over. Bad.
  21. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 22, 2013 -> 09:20 PM) There was a massive list of pitchers whose velocity was down this year, headed up byJustin Verlander who was down around 1.5 mph. Were you not concerned when his velocity was below 90 for that Detroit game and that Texas game last July. He was probably throwing 90-92 the rest of the way. No we are three weeks into the season and already have the first recognized write up /analysis on his reduced velocity. Its just troublesome thats all.
  22. QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Apr 22, 2013 -> 07:01 PM) There's not a lot of justification for some of these guys greatly improving right now. Dunn is basically a lost cause, even though his numbers will likely improve. Dunn is getting nowhere near a career average in anything important. Keppinger looks awful, hasn't walked yet either. Viciedo coming back from injury and swinging at everything that doesn't bounce (and some that do), Beckham same thing and not a good hitter when healthy unless he goes back in time. Just a bad lineup right now. Even if it improves a bit, which it will, it's still bad. CORRECT. Can I press the like button. I still love the Sox, but yes this is an honest and realistic assessment of what they are.
  23. QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Apr 22, 2013 -> 04:53 PM) So, am I to believe you think Alex Rios with a .984 OPS is normal? Alexei Ramirez hitting .306 is normal? They are above expectations. Should we expect more from De Aza? His OPS is right in line with last season. Adam Dunn? He's proven he can do this for an entire season. Dayan Viciedo? There's zero patience there. He and the great career-backup Jeff Keppinger have yet to draw a walk this season. Keppinger should hit a bit better, but he's no difference maker. Gordon Beckham? Well, he's injured but was actually hitting .300. Tyler Flowers? Expecting anything more than he's given so far (.229 average, .794 OPS) would be completely asinine. Who haven't we covered yet? Gillaspie? He's hitting .300. Paulie? He's 37 - but I guess slight improvement could be expected. So, really - tell me why I am wrong on anyone above. Show me where I should expect improvement in this God-awful offense while, of course, expecting Rios/Ramirez to come back down a bit? I actually agree with everything here. I see the same as you. The team has all these players that we see with all these flaws that we just have to saw they are who they are. Keppenger doesnt walk, doesnt see pitches and work counts, neither does Viciedo, Alexei, Flowers, or Beckham. Alexi can't bunt, Dunn can't hit, Dunn's new approach has essentially traded walks and working counts for early outs by swinging more. PK, Rios, De Aza they are who they are. A majority of our hitters are established low OBP, low pitch count working, high K rate, high swing rate hitters....PERIOD. Thats bad, that's why there is no optimism for letting these guys develop and grow, while we endure some pain, to me that are who they are at this point. But see to me the team architecture is all wrong. There are too many of the same guys, too many of these low OBP, no pitch count working, high K rate, high swing rate guys. If you are trying to compete with a $110M payroll and marketing your team as such then you can have a couple of these guys at the bottom of the order as you "give them a shot" and "develop". You can't have 9 studs I get it. But this team has Konerko and Rios as about the only two hitters who don't fit the hitter profile I described above. If team OBP is such a problem who approved of Manto and Dunn creating this "new approach" to swing earlier more, essentially trading walks and pitch counts for early outs and low counts. Who thought with team OBP as a major issue last year bringing in an extremely low career OBP player in Keppinger was the correct addition to this lineup. I dont get it. If you are forced to have Alexei, De Aza, Beckham, Flowers, Viciedo out there for various reasons then you better have every other piece of your lineup have strengths that compliment those guys weaknesses. This team does not. It has hitters who compound the same issues as other hitters.
  24. QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Apr 22, 2013 -> 04:26 PM) Sale has had 3 quality starts. Look for the offense to get better when Beckham and Viciedo return. If Ventura can shake up the lineup, they'll score runs. Im still worried about his durability and velocity. Did you see the velocity chart that Bernstein was talking about on 670. I know you cant throw 96 pitch after pitch if you want to stick around and not blow out your arm, but his velocity dips have been significant and we are about 3 years deep worth of IP for him at the big league level. The graph was very clear, as time went on velocity went down about every 40 IP buckets he pitched since he broke in. Its just troubling.
  25. QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Apr 22, 2013 -> 12:38 PM) Dunn is a bum and shouldn't have struck out. Thats what he does, a lot, why are you mad at a guy for doing something he has based his entire career on. Either strikeout or hit a HR.
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