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bmags

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Everything posted by bmags

  1. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have shown that you can manage this with high testing, tracking and isolation, but Italy could not? The thing is by testing and tracking, you go test asymptomatic people who have been in contact with symptomatic people and isolate them. There are in fact examples of this... Wuhan was Wuhan because China ignored the problem until it needed shut downs. Italy the same, and US the same. But there were countries that didn't do that.
  2. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    this is going to be bad
  3. bmags

    Market/Financial Thread

    This is why I think the "targeted bailouts" is too much of a landmine. If they just guarantee payroll of US legal workers up to 4k a month or whatever you are politically just helping workers, and don't have to worry about political targeting for supporting a hot button industry.
  4. bmags

    NFL Thread 2019-2020

    So uh, panthers are releasing Cam Newton today... (i'd prefer risk/reward cam to foles).
  5. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    but they'll be living in an italy with increased testing and medical capacity, and one much more understanding of the threat and actions needed.
  6. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I’m not sure that many of our tests are even hitting the 4 hours or less mark. Still see most taking days (rand Paul)
  7. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    65k tests today. Need to double that in a week or two. Cut down results time plus 300k tests per day capacity and I think we’d be where we need to open up.
  8. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    then you would expect your positive/tested percentage to be lower...instead it's higher. Illinois hasn't been able to test as much, but that percentage is at 15%, Washington's is 6%. New Yorks was 25%. That doesn't give me the hope that NYC is just testing more than everyone. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#
  9. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I'd wait until the end of the week. They likely waited too long to shut it down. Their case rate is worse than anywhere, and when it hits capacity it gets terrible.
  10. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Man I''m sorry to hear that caulfield. Hopefully things change from that outlook.
  11. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    yeah, key with those demos though is their jobs put them in tons of contact. General pop almost certainly lower than taking those samples.
  12. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I am very worried about new york. And feeling like Georgia and FLA may look that way in a week. For obvious demo reasons, florida really concerns me.
  13. bmags

    Market/Financial Thread

    getting there
  14. bmags

    NFL Thread 2019-2020

    Wanted to say I really appreciated that NFL kept FA period on time. It was very nice to have a break and argue about normal stuff like bears sucking.
  15. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    @Balta1701 thought this was helpful https://www.seriouseats.com/2020/03/food-safety-and-coronavirus-a-comprehensive-guide.html
  16. bmags

    Market/Financial Thread

    That this is happening in UK give me some hope US can take away their "stimulus" focus here. UK typically is even more skeptical of unfairness than US, and the idiotic phase-in and means testing proposals of yesterday show how far behind US is in addressing this:
  17. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I don't really think Johnson or Feinstein's seem related to the coronavirus briefings. Honestly even Purdue... Burr/Loeffler are the ones I think are legit issues with privileged trading.
  18. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I think greg's interpretation of barro's post is bad anyway. His point was there needs to be planning for the post-shut it down world. Testing capabilities is the way out of that. This is just to buy us time, it is not a solution.
  19. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    My god, the idea that the SPRING BREAK beachgoers were millenials is hilarious. Millenials are 40 fv#%ing years old now!
  20. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I don't think we'll have good data for a while. All correlations now.
  21. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I am hopeful that the success of the US in reducing smoking helps in the mortality rates here. In south korea, more women were getting infected then men, but women had a smoking rate of only 5% in south korea, which hopefully is a contributing factor to their low mortality rates (aside from not getting overrun in hospitals). US has a higher female percentage that smokes, but overall is about 10% lower than italy or south korea. Let's hope.
  22. bmags

    OOTP 21 Sim of 2020

    This is definitely an OOTP season for me. Start off reasonably hot, get excited, by July I'm like 20-55 and all my star players are trash and prospects failed. (i.e. I'm very good at OOTP)
  23. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Cutting a check is good, but doing what you can to encourage labor hoarding + extremely generous UI during this downturn + directing underutilized labor to manufacturing shortages is much better
  24. bmags

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    One - I do think the fact that the airlines are 1) important to the nations infrastructure 2) so often needing bailouts due to external events but 3) also needing bailouts...for incompetence but ge tthem due to 1) ... It makes sense to actually force some strict capital requirements that would limit buy-backs. They need to save more and gov't should include the unions in those discussions I would hope and hold my breath for. On the flip side: - I don't particularly like the "bailout" lingo being thrown out now. No company planned for this well, and I struggle to say any should. For acts of god, you have insurance. Perhaps in future we have pandemic insurance...but it's likely a waste of money. This is an area where it is the government that should have been the key player in prevention and prep, but it also needs to be the key player in the economic fallout. This is essentially a planned recession at this point, so the gov't should just guarantee payrolls to all that will not lay people off. And for those that already have, fix and make UI more generous ...yesterday! Yeah I don't want money going to boeing, or united or casinos etc etc. But I DO want money to float the restaurants. I don't want anyone to lose their jobs. Just float it all. Get through this. Allow a snap back. Don't try to just go halfway, end up with 20% unemployment, and then when we start operating as normally, slow the recovery down because you have to re-train and re-match millions of people in the workforce along with the demand shortfall that comes with that. Just mail the f'n checks, guarantee payday, produce the shit out of masks, and move fast. Be willing to waste money on those that don't need it. I guarantee the debt crisis will NOT be as bad as this or as difficult to solve.
  25. bmags

    NFL Thread 2019-2020

    If someone is at a level that they are earnestly competing with Trubisky then you'd hope they are a 6th round pick from directional U that is making 500k, not making 20 mills.
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