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Balta1701

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Everything posted by Balta1701

  1. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    This is an update on our current trajectory from the University of Washington. Considering some places are already pulling back on the shutdown orders, I am not optimistic that we will see only that many cases. http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-covid-19-forecasts-us-hospitals-could-be-overwhelmed-second-week-april-demand-icu
  2. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Compared to China America is seeing a spike in other modes of death associated with poor health.
  3. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    You know this might be the most useful thing I can ask you - what's the schedule like for hiring people for your district (especially this year)? I don't really want to spend $300 on this and then find out that I already missed the years hirings or that I actually do get some other position around here, and I'm going to be especially swamped in the next few weeks because I have to figure out how to turn a 4 week field trip into something online.
  4. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    No I haven't, and I'm uncertain what to do with the certification process. If you happen to be familiar with that I'd take tips, I'm just googling and saying I don't have time for this while still teaching.
  5. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Would depend on the position. San Antonio isn't driveable, so if it's like a temporary/1 year position then no, I'd rather just find a retail job around here. If it was a permanent position where one could afford to live there, sure.
  6. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Already expecting to have to try stuff like this in the summer. Right now trying to survive 2 months of intensive online teaching, preferably without getting sick and dying in the process.
  7. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I'll be looking at jobs like that in the fall but steep learning curve since the stuff I work on is far from environmental, so if there's lots of people and very few jobs I'm at a disadvantage again.
  8. It's not just the fans, it's the players #RememberRudy Yeah many of these guys are in shape, but the numbers in this country are still showing substantial fractions of people in the 20-40 range winding up hospitalized. Imagine Mike Trout being on a ventilator because baseball needed to open its doors. And then you have the coaches, broadcasters to worry about. You've still got 40 people in a confined space, and substantial interstate travel.
  9. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Ph.D. in Geology, have been an (award winning) University lecturer the last 6 years. Because I have never been able to find a permanent (Tenure-track) position, I'm basically being kicked out this year. Am looking at high school teaching jobs in the area, but when you've never taught high school the Ph.D. advantage is balanced by the lack of experience.
  10. What was the original proposed date?
  11. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Nope. Searches take 6-8 months start to finish in academia, when these schools cancel them they're saying you're out of luck for the year and that the work you put into them months ago is going in the trash. We'll be lucky if there are any offered in the fall, especially since now people won't retire next year as their stock portfolios have been devastated. From the university perspective canceling all hires and letting go of anyone who isn't tenured makes sense, they have no idea what their student population is going to even look like this fall, let alone whether everything will be online, so they should cut their expenses now. I've still got a few applications out there but I have no confidence in any of them, at best the searches are currently frozen. Literally my only realistic chance at staying employed is for someone else to get sick. I have no idea what I'm going to be doing in June.
  12. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    LOL we already have our layoff notices.
  13. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

  14. Balta1701

    Market/Financial Thread

  15. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

  16. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    So today I've seen an epidemiologist saying that this virus actually is mutating slowly enough that it makes tracking difficult since there are very few marker events that distinguish one virus from another, which would argue pretty strongly against that.
  17. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    It has seemed that people show peak symptoms 5-7 or so days after infection in most cases but most of the deaths are delayed by about a week, most of the deaths happen something like days 10-14, so we're seeing the cases that were established last week right now, and the deaths will come next week.
  18. Balta1701

    Sox option Kopech

    A quick google news search shows that just from the top 4 headlines today, the Rays optioned 7 players today, the Angels optioned 4 players, and the Nationals optioned 6 players. I'm too lazy to search more.
  19. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I'll be in 2 months.
  20. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    honestly, no it won't, because even if we did nothing, we don't hit the peak of cases until June or July per the Imperial college study, so the death and destruction option lasts a good 6 months.
  21. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Just to stress for reality, it's extremely important that we're testing the homeless, prisoners, people working 2 jobs/people without health insurance, immigrants, because after we get through this, those are the populations where this could continue simmering undetected. Homeless person sitting on a bench, person working 2 jobs with no insurance - those types of people could easily become spreaders and if they can't go to the doctor, that breaks our ability to trace them.
  22. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

  23. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

  24. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I think China has this decently under control right now. There could absolutely be more bodies, but the hospital videos are hard to block. When you've got an overwhelmed hospital, people are coming and going, and there's no information control on that. There is no guarantee they could not lose control again, but the strategy is out there. Lock down, beat it into submission, then "test test test test test". Test the underpriviledged. Test the people you don't like. Test everyone they come into contact with. All free from the government. You're hungover? Here's an aspirin and a COVID-19 test, don't ask why just take it. It can work.
  25. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Only other points I'd add are: 1. Those discussions have taken place in the bio-medical community and that's why we're trying to convince people to lock stuff down, because it's the least bad option. 2. I'm on record in this thread on March 3rd saying "OMG we're completely screwed we need to shut the doors of everything in California and Washington right now". 3. And yes, every time our President says "we need to get people back to work!" or every time the governor of Florida says "The beaches are open", we are heading towards a worst case scenario. I've seen epidemiologists say "this kind of lunacy, of refusal to follow these orders was something we never modeled".
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