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Balta1701

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Everything posted by Balta1701

  1. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    1. It's not just the deaths of the elderly and the high risk population. There are plenty of "low-risk" people who die, so yes if you could somehow do what you're suggesting, you still kill hundreds of thousands this year rather than millions 2. It's not just the deaths. You are asking 10-20 million people or something like that to come down with very severe illnesses that hospitalize them for weeks, put them in medical care for weeks, kill extras because of the ventilators, there's not enough doctors trained in this country to do what you're proposing even if you could build enough hospitals quick enough. You can do that if the ill are in the tens of thousands, not tens of millions. This is why I mentioned the cancer patient. This is why I mentioned a person with a heart attack. How many heart attacks are there each year in this country? What does a heart attack victim do if the hospitals are full? They die. 3. There's no feasible way to do it, as if you let it burn through the 200 million "so-called healthy people" with a 0.2% chance of dying or whatever, then those people are going to go talk to their parents. They're going to buy food at the same grocery store as the others. They're going to the doctor. They're going to the pharmacy. You can't just say "Oh I'm sorry you can't go get your chemo drugs, you might die there's a virus" - the things that make them high risk will also kill them. 4. You seem to think that there's some strategy here that avoids a "great depression" but what you just proposed is a great depression. 10-20 million people out of work for weeks at a time while they're ill. Health care bills in the tens of thousands of dollars for each of them. Hundreds of thousands of supposedly healthy people dead. And 1/3 of the population somehow permanently quarantined for a year. This is another great depression. 5. Frankly, if you gave me the choice, I would live off my savings for a year and say *bleep* you to your plan even if I was 100% healthy. So even if another 25% of the population revolts against this plan, now you've got 1/2 of the population either sick or refusing to participate or under your mandatory quarantine. 6. Please note that the "extremely well respected" people you are referring to think that every version of what you're saying is horrifying and unworkable. There is 1 setup out there to avoid your feared depression that has been proposed. It is "shut everything down right now immediately". Beat the peak down, as we have seen at least 4 countries do including China. Then, extremely aggressive testing and tracing - as we should have been doing in February when the government was frittering. It can work, it can get some things back to semi-normal. That's the only thing people have come up with.
  2. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    How do the super-quarantined 25% of society get food? How do we get to the pharmacy? How do you deal with the huge numbers of seemingly healthier people who still come down with severe cases? You still dramatically overwhelm the hospitals. How do businesses deal with the huge numbers of people out of work for weeks/months who came down with severe cases of the illness? Are you ok with hundreds of thousands of deaths because it's not millions? What about the 30 year old with cancer who can't get a hospital bed for the next 6 months? Or the 40 year old who has a heart attack? Bad timing, shame?
  3. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

  4. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    New York? They’re about to be our first nightmare. They run out of ICU beds on Friday and the Morgue already can’t keep up.
  5. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    He was below water in 2004, and combining hating on the right minority with negative campaigning against his opponent was enough to put him over the top. And that was when we had the voting rights act and no other nations openly acting to hurt the country by supporting the worst candidate. 45%, plus campaign funds and unlimited airtime? https://www.people-press.org/2008/12/18/bush-and-public-opinion/
  6. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Well the good news is that due to his awful administration and multiple disasters, W was limited to 1-term.
  7. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    And he's getting a free hour long commercial every day again.
  8. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    As far as I can tell this is false.
  9. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    until they die.
  10. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I would highly recommend everyone read through this detailed discussion by biologist Ed Yong, really well formatted and thought through. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/
  11. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    For all the talk of available tests, it seems like even this week people who should be tested either can't get one or they're having to wait many hours to get access to the test.
  12. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    We've seen China reach a point where, if government numbers are believable, they have very low transmission on an average day. South Korea has passed their peak, and are down to a few dozen new diagnosed cases per day. If you have available testing for everyone, and I mean everyone whether they're prisoners, homeless, immigrants, of a race people don't like, whatever - then we can get past this peak over the next 3-4 weeks and then as new cases pop up, the US would have plenty of resources to trace where it came from. Once you're doing that, we've seen how the incidents drop. This can be done, but it requires everyone working together and a commitment from everyone, including the government.
  13. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    There's one thing to be said for businesses doing a poor job and it leading to 2008, where that was entirely their fault. There's something to be said for limits on stock buybacks and all those other games. But literally no business out there should ever plan for a complete shutdown of everything they do for a period of several months without assistance. You don't want businesses sitting on that many resources, nor do I; if a business in 2014 has a choice between saving 3 months of all their operating expenses and hiring 1000 employees and expanding substantially, wouldn't you want them doing the latter?
  14. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Don't worry about the larger ones, they're going to get $4 trillion from the federal reserve.
  15. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Chicago's full year GDP in 2018 was estimated at $650 billion. $350 billion is half of all business in Chicago. You're right it's not enough to survive the full year. It's enough for small businesses to survive a month or two. If we don't contain this thing in the first step because we insist on reopening on Easter...then this won't be the last batch of money that needs passed.
  16. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    That kid sounds like an ideal candidate for the expanded unemployment benefits.
  17. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    No, they're supposed to pay their employees using these funds so that their employees don't lose their homes, cars, health insurance (which may be particularly important). And on the others, I said this before about student loans. Who the F*** cares if bailing out an overleveraged company keeps them in business too long and it's terribly unfair? So is throwing 50 employees off their health insurance and having them lose their homes during a pandemic. It's this or you suspend all rent payments, all utility payments, shut everything else down. Either you print money so people can pay for those services, or you make them free.
  18. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    How are you not seeing that by requiring businesses to pay employees...they're supporting the employees?
  19. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Isn't a forgiven loan literally = revenue?
  20. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Narrator..."They were not".
  21. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Right now this bill will add about $2 trillion. however, because the Federal Reserve is going to simply buy up the bonds that are issued as part of their $4 trillion package, the effect in terms of increasing interest rates will be muted/gone as there's absolutely a market for those bonds. In a normal time, printing up $2 trillion and handing it to people would drive inflation, but that's 10% of the economy and the size of the economy is about to drop by more than 10%, so it's still probably not large enough to be a major inflationary push. And if it is...GREAT WE LIVED THROUGH THIS.
  22. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I think you're right, but 2 things to highlight - first, the lack of deaths is encouraging the President to say we need to remove these "Shelter in place" orders to get business back open so even if it's not intentional that's adding to the nightmare... Furthermore...if we are unable to test those people, then we are unable to tell people who may have been in contact with them to isolate, so we're creating additional spread.
  23. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Oh dear god he specifically cited Texas as an area that he could open today and he's taking support for the idea from the stock market surge. It's going to happen.
  24. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    The day I defended my thesis, I sat down for 20 minutes, then went to the clinic for H1N1 shot day to celebrate.
  25. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    WTF is the Spanish World War?
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