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Balta1701

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Everything posted by Balta1701

  1. Balta1701

    Sox/Pederson speculation via CSN

    Considering that last year was easily his best career season, regression is possible for Abreu. But who is going to make up for that? Luis Robert. He's gone through a set of struggles now and seen what that's like...now the opposing pitchers are really in trouble.
  2. Balta1701

    Sox/Pederson speculation via CSN

    I think that was just "white sox fans hoping so". They've clearly got a little to spend, but the fact that they're talking about trades for Musgrove and what not suggests they are feeling some pinch.
  3. Balta1701

    trading our players

    Unfortunately, with the White Sox salary limits, they are going to grab the lower end of the FA market, where the odds of failure are like 2/3. That could well get them to the trade deadline in first place, but you go into October as a juggernaut if you want to face this competition.
  4. Balta1701

    trading our players

    Long term success may come at the expense of winning any World Series trophies, when you have to beat the Superteam Dodgers as well as other strong teams like the Yankees, Rays, Braves, Padres, and whoever else is in good shape next year. Winning fir years with no titles happened to Detroit. Probably to Cleveland. To the Rangers when they had a strong team. The Yankees have been strong for years and can’t beat Houston. Minnesota can’t beat the Yankees. Pulling a Cubs is not a bad thing if you get that trophy, there are plenty of examples of teams not getting over the hump. Somehow I feel like we are destined to have more than 1 matchup with the Padres. I don’t believe it’s time to put everything on the table yet. But next July it could be.
  5. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Rather the opposite. Religion had less restrictive rules than anything else, even less than in home gatherings. https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/covid/covid-19-localized-restrictions.pdf Under an orange zone, all indoor restaurants were closed and limited to outdoor dining or takeout, gyms and hair salons are closed, schools are remote unless they meet a testing standard, and you could face a $15,000 fine for a private gathering with more than 10 people. Churches, however, could have up to 25 people. Under a red zone, outdoor dining is banned, all private gatherings of people are banned and subject to a $15,000 fine, but churches could still have up to 10 people. In both cases, churches were allowed larger crowds than anything else, and yet that was too restrictive. By your standard you should strongly disagree with this ruling.
  6. Balta1701

    Real Talk - Trading Kopech would be a big time mistake

    Hopefully by April we are talking about a hundred million vaccine doses being available and MLB requiring all their players to have gotten it. Not enough to stop it nationwide but enough that vaccinating all players and families can happen.
  7. Balta1701

    trading our players

    I don’t think we are allowed to say the name of that traded player any more.
  8. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    The question is how many people get an infectious dose from a single sick person. Planes have to have thought through an air flow path because otherwise people suffocate from CO2 buildup. It’s not perfect but they do move a fair amount of air. One person might infect the people around them but hopefully not the next 20 people. In a line indoors, without ventilation, the air just hangs out and gets everyone around an infected person, and if several people have it the concentration may go up over time.
  9. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Congrats! I’m sure the Bible says something about dying of a disease.
  10. Balta1701

    Offseason Targets

    Fix that next CBA. This year was guaranteed to be a mess even if things were working normally. And the Winter Meetings haven't been very interesting the last couple years. Right now, let's just make sure the season can start on time.
  11. Balta1701

    2020 Election Thoughts

    The Bush-style immigration bill could probably get 52-53 votes, including extra border security and a path to citizenship with a large fee and an expanded guest-worker program. But it would never come to the floor with Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader. If the senate is 50/50 with Harris as the deciding vote for a Majority Leader, a bill that would have been seen as a compromise in 2007 could pass. If the Senate were 50/50, the DREAM act will pass easily within weeks, eliminating the need for DACA. There's already probably 60+ votes for it, maybe more. It could have passed any year for the past 8 years if McConnell wasn't in charge.
  12. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    That study suggests "T Cell immunity hasn't gone away in 8 months and isnt likely to go away any time soon." That could mean 12 months, 18 months, 20 years, they have some reason for hope but there's still issues. I think there's good reason to suspect that a person with T Cell immunity might still be able to acquire and transmit this thing, even if they don't show strong symptoms. Deep down, I'm guessing we're seeing that right now. Furthermore, the vaccine immunity and the viral immunity aren't required to work the same way. From a personal perspective, "hope for the best, but have a plan for the worst" seems reasonable. If you get the vaccine, still act like you can transmit it until you're sure the virus is dead in the human population, and wait for professional health guidance next year.
  13. Balta1701

    The Blake Snell Thread

    And then the first rumor that started off this thread was Vaughn, Kopech, and Crochet - and I didn't even think of Crochet because I assumed that was almost like asking for Sale after 2010 and basically not even worth considering.
  14. Balta1701

    trading our players

    It's not the FA options that our limited. There are sufficient options that we could fill all of the team's needs. It is the team's willingness to spend that money that we expect to be limited.
  15. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Read the article. They actually didn't test that method in a significant amount and weren't even planning to originally, it started as an accident when they made a dosing mistake. The other 2 methodologies from Pfizer and Moderna have been constant and tested tens of thousands of times, the AstraZeneca one they tested a couple different methodologies, varied the procedure for the placebo rather than keeping it constant, and didn't present a full plan for the vaccination campaign beforehand (which you should do if you want to evaluate your test - set the standards you will use to evaluate success first). Based on that, AstraZeneca should submit a full, detailed plan to test a 1/2 dose first followed by a full dose, go into the field in the US, and do a full retest over the next 3 months. There are plenty of cases here to try that. If that Wired description is right, then it should not be used here and I would not take it without additional data collection.
  16. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    The data presented by AstraZeneca is of substantially lower quality than that of the other two drug makers and it is entirely likely that their permit request for emergency use will be turned down in the US. https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/
  17. Balta1701

    MLB caught Cano. Why can't it catch Nelson Cruz

    1. Has everyone in here forgotten that Cruz did get caught? Maybe not by a test but because his supplier got busted. 2. Modern tests are well beyond the abilities of the tests that didn’t catch Armstrong. While there may still be holes such as times during the year when he isn’t tested, it is actually possible to watch for a shift in the isotopic ratios of hormones in the body now and it’s nearly impossible to avoid that happening if you take a steroid. You would need to match the composition of the steroid to the individuals body beforehand and that would be really difficult. One hypothesis: Tetrahydrogestrinone kept hitting home runs in San Francisco for years after BALCO was busted, and was out of the league not because he was done but because no one wanted the trouble of signing him, us included. Perhaps Cruz got himself in shape from a few years of steroids back in 2010-2013 and his body is just holding up well from it?
  18. Balta1701

    Quick Hit, would you take a vaccine?

    It's appropriately ridiculous given every other failure that we haven't heard a summary of how this is going to go beyond "health care workers and those at risk first". How do you determine who is at risk? Do I have to have a doctor's note to get into an early group if I actually belong there? Do family members come with the at-risk person or do they have to wait/see their own doctor to verify their risk factors? No clue.
  19. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    FWIW, standing in crowds at a terminal waiting for security/boarding is likely notably worse. On the plane, there is a controlled airflow path with fairly high air movement rates. In a crowd, anything you breathe out just settles on the rest of the crowd.
  20. Balta1701

    Offseason Targets

    Well yeah but you're taking on $23 million or so of a contract this year, so the return should be tiny, if not nothing. I'm still skeptical the FA market would give him that in 1 year.
  21. Balta1701

    The Blake Snell Thread

    If the Rays are in first place in the AL East again and Snell is leading the charge, they're not going to be particularly likely to move Snell. If you want him, you probably need to make that move now.
  22. Balta1701

    The Blake Snell Thread

    And the post that started this thread said 2 of them (Kopech+Crochet) + Madrigal as the proposed price.
  23. Balta1701

    Do we need to acquire a closer?

    Make sure you think about the coach in this context. Is this coach going to take your best reliever and limit him to only the 9th inning? Would he automatically prefer a veteran closer in the 9th and be more willing to use Bummer in high leverage spots if he had one?
  24. Balta1701

    The Blake Snell Thread

    I assume you’re going to laugh at this also.
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