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Balta1701

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Everything posted by Balta1701

  1. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    So I wanted to give a reply to this yesterday but didn't have time. 1. There are a number of good quality papers out there saying that young people are much less likely to transmit this virus than adults/people in their late teens and early 20s. This is now well established and you can read it if you want. https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2020/07/08/peds.2020-004879. This is unusual for viruses - influenza and the common cold transmit just fine amongst kids. 2. If it wasn't for point #1, schools would seem like the absolute worst possible place to be. Lots of talking, crowded rooms, limited ventilation, 8+ hours a day, it'd be like a restaurant for 8 hours. You'd otherwise flag that as the absolute highest risk place you can imagine. 3. There are some reasons to be skeptical about how far #1 really goes. a.) There are now multiple cases of transmission involving kids, maybe not driven by them but definitely involving them. A summer camp in Missouri had 82 kids infected. Texas has an outbreak in day care centers with 1300 cases recognized, 444 of which are children. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/10/889718877/at-least-82-coronavirus-cases-linked-to-missouri-sleepaway-camp https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/texas-coronavirus-cases-child-care-facilities/index.html b.) Children seemingly don't manifest the same symptoms as adults. Children often seem to report migranes and some other problems rather than the breathing issues we see in adults. As a consequence, it is likely that there is more spreading among children and between children than has been recognized previously. IF you have 2 sick people, one kid complaining about headaches and an adult complaining of respiratory distress, and testing is limited in your country, you are going to test the adult and not the child. Between fewer symptoms and changed symptoms, it is likely that we are under-testing and under-recognizing the disease amongst children specifically. c.) In New York, it was recognized that a number of children get the virus, show weak to no symptoms, and then some percentage experience unexplained severe illnesses 1-3 months later (possibly more, we've only been dealing with this for 1-3 months). So while the virus may show limited symptoms at first, it may do damage or lay dormant in unexpected ways. 4. Given all that information, if you have spread in your area and you open schools you are almost certain to get some spread in schools. It may be focused among the teachers, but the teachers may be the ones who get it and infect significant numbers of young people. If you had to choose keeping schools closed or restaurants closed, you would clearly choose restaurants, bars, gyms, etc., as they are more likely to represent large spreading events. If you have limited spread in an area, ample testing, and available PPE, you could probably open schools with relative safety if you have developed appropriate plans to protect the teachers and students over time. However, literally no where in this country has all of those things, because the hot spots are so huge and the demand for PPE and testing in the hot spots is so high. 5. Because we cannot keep the outside area safe, it is very difficult to expect that if you open a school it won't come in, and if it comes in you will have probably 10 days before you realize there's a problem even if there is a problem. Testing is too restricted, most of the spreading is done by people before symptoms develop, and any kids who do spread it have a good chance of failing to be recognized. 6. Furthermore, opening schools creates another problem. While COVID-19 may not spread easily among youth, influenza does, and if schools are open it will mean flu season is coming. Right now, much of the nation has no spare capacity left in hospitals for flu patients. Adding transmission of an additional virus would be particularly hazardous right now. 7. We could quibble on the numbers and the procedures, 5% positive tests or 3% or whatever, but opening grade schools would be possible if we had taken care of everything outside of schools, but opening schools depends on meeting standards we have failed to meet as a nation. Outside of a handful of communities and possibly New York state, right now most of the country is in no shape to do this. We chose to have bars and restaurants open for 1.5 months over having schools open in the fall. 8. While the risks may be lower because of something about this virus, there are offsetting factors that are unknown, and one final point - even if most do not get this as bad as adults, some kids still get very sick, some kids would have long-lasting complications, and some kids would die. Generally speaking, that's not a good thing to ask of most families. 9. Any University that thinks they can open their doors is asking for disaster.
  2. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Remember, Mitch McConnell is working hard to provide immunity to schools and businesses so that just because they let someone else infect you it doesn’t mean you can sue.
  3. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    In that case there is still an option but we have to actually gear up and battle this thing. 1. Lockdowns and mask wearing, get down to a few hundred cases nationwide. 2. Aggressive contact tracing. (same as the options being pushed previously). 3. Targeted vaccination campaigns. Hit areas where it is known to be circulating with a large campaign of vaccination. A couple months of immunity combined with the other measures is enough to shut it down in an area since many of the people who get it don’t actually spread it. 4. Set a goal of elimination. Maybe at first you are dealing with areas that have dozens of cases, maybe later you’re vaccinating cities because there were 5 reported cases. With leadership and money it could be done.
  4. Balta1701

    NFL Thread 2019-2020

    There's a Wikipedia page on the Blackhawks name and you are correct a lot of the comments seem to specifically focus on the logo, but there are some more general statements out there as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Blackhawks_name_and_logo_controversy https://aicchicago.org/statement-on-blackhawks/
  5. Balta1701

    2019-2020 Official NBA Thread

    Both Harden and Westbrook have been missing from the bubble and opening games are in like 2 weeks, so I was kinda figuring.
  6. Balta1701

    Sox Summer Camp Catch All Thread

    I don’t know if this sounds weird but Dunning is one guy who I think this mess might be good for. Limits his innings but very likely to see big league competition quickly.
  7. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    FWIW, Louisiana is now a case study on this. They announced a statewide mask mandate on June 13, with the normal exceptions (eating, outside on your own, no enforcement in churches, etc). They were at about 500 cases per day at the time but starting to see a few spikes, today they shut down bars and a bunch of other things because they’re back to 2000 cases per day. Masks help, they slow it, but they are not a cure-all. Thus far we have basically zero examples of anywhere on earth getting this under control without a shutdown, and we are back to “need to get this under control” again.
  8. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    1. Have you noticed how the hospitals in all the hotspots are overloaded again and reusing PPE again? 2. you are correct, nothing has been done. There is a reason why. I deal a little in disaster response science. One of the lessons there is that someone needs to make decisions at the top, even if they are wrong they are better than paralysis, because when decisions aren’t made at the top, no one else can do their job m. The US is broken at the top. There are no thought through guidelines, No answer for what to do when there is an outbreak, there are no extra funds, people haven’t been buying or manufacturing the equipment you would need to keep those buildings safe. Even if something was ordered incorrectly, at least some things might have been done right. A school district on its own can’t make these decisions, especially if they have no extra funds. When no one is in charge, it creates paralysis at every level. That is where we are right now.
  9. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    You have just answered your previous question.
  10. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Get it sloping back down. its going up right now. If cases are increasing and positive rate is increasing, you don’t have control. And if you have it going up now, where is it in a month? Figure out a national strategy for contact tracing. That would have helped too.
  11. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Hey, everyone else had their chance to actually get this virus under control. We decided not to get the virus under control, that means schools aren't safe to be in.
  12. Balta1701

    2019-2020 Official NBA Thread

    https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity dragging this up for relevance as we are now starting anecdotally to see reports of second infections a few months after a first infection with far more severe symptoms the second time around. Limited sample size but this is an MD reporting on their patients so it’s a credible example.
  13. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Any school that thinks they can do fall sports is deluding themselves right now, it's just a matter of time. Getting pro sports going in this country has required testing every 2 days for MLB, and even then it's an open question whether it will work. The country simply doesn't have the testing capacity to do that with college sports.
  14. Balta1701

    2021 White Sox Schedule Released!

    You just got a geologist high 5 for one of those words. Enjoy!
  15. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

  16. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I think right now, globally, there just aren't the resources to do this. You can't do it in places that got the virus under control because there aren't enough cases coming into schools to be able to assess "how likely is a super-spreading event". You can't do it in the US because we don't have nearly enough testing capacity for the adults, so a lot of kids may be getting it and even passing it along without it being noticed if their symptoms are weak enough. The only things we have are statistics saying "closing schools was not strongly correlated with decreasing viral spread", but we don't have any of the details to evaluate that. I think the teachers unions were probably pretty smart in holding off on responding to plans until there was something to respond to out in the public, this isn't a case where you want all your teachers fighting publicly against kids going to school until they have specific details to fight against. They were probably working behind the scenes as much as possible - Texas, for example, had no desire to put out a mask mandate in schools and the unions basically said that was a non-starter, so the "re-opening plan" requires all students to wear masks. You're also starting to see some come out this week now that states are putting out their "School reopening plans". I would happily offer my teaching skills for such an online program if one existed. I'm available.
  17. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    You're right that doesn't work everywhere (Texas in August wouldn't be pleasant either) but that's about the only workable idea I've heard for any schools anywhere. The Texas agency is saying "We'll close down and sanitize a wing if a student tests positive" and every time I hear that I think "so, they got infected 4 days before they were tested in order to show symptoms, they had a test done, they waited 6 days for the result, they've had 10 days to spread it around and you still don't know where they got it, and so your solution is to sanitize a wing of the school" and I just think "Good luck".
  18. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    What's the plan "When" one/multiple people come down with it? This is an airborne virus. "Sanitation" does a little bit, but if you have a bunch of people in a room for hours at a time, then sanitizing the surfaces the next day doesn't matter.
  19. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    The simple version is "we don't know everything but it looks like pregnancies are at high risk of some damage". In other words, Mike Trout has a kid due in a couple months, and he'd be very much justified in sitting out this season given the risks. There's a bunch of things that have come out over the last month about placental damage and infections being transmitted that you really don't want to risk.
  20. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Without adding too many details, how much have you followed the recent results on the virus and pregnancies?
  21. Balta1701

    2020 Catch-All

    https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/advice/skills/how-to-see-comet-c-2020-f3-neowise/ So there's a naked eye visible comet this month if you're away from too much light pollution. Currently up at Dawn, will be up at Dusk later this month.
  22. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768351 This is just on hospitalized patients from Italy. Sample size is 143, so not terrible, some biases through it being people hospitalized but given that exception, the real number is probably within 10% of this. Patients studied 60 days after the onset of the illness, a large majority still experiencing symptoms 2 full months later. More than half had mulitple symptoms.
  23. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I'm waiting to see one that has learned.
  24. Balta1701

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Texas has had 10% of its recorded COVID-19 deaths in the past 3 days.
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