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Greg Hibbard

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About Greg Hibbard

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    Late Inning Replacement

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  1. Greg Hibbard

    Sox Sign Jon Jay; 1 year/$4 mil, Charlie Tilson DFA'd

    He's not league average, but he's above replacement. That's been a problem - rounding out their lineup with above replacement players. Also, the White Sox aren't positioning themselves to win a World Series next year. They are positioning themselves to contend for the division title in a weak division, win 80-90 games, identify who is valuable moving forward, and continue development. A proven, consistent veteran you can plug into a hole at a fair price is valuable thing.
  2. Greg Hibbard

    Sox Sign Jon Jay; 1 year/$4 mil, Charlie Tilson DFA'd

    I’ll bite, Greg. The Jay signing doesn’t anger me because Jay is a pretty damned consistent non-needle mover. You know what you will get -a .270-.280 season, probably an OBA of .320-.330, passable CF. A WAR of 1-1.5 at a position in the batting order, and within our financial scheme where it’s perfectly acceptable to have that. The Machado stuff is cherry on top. It’s a very smart move all around. With Avi Garcia, you might get a 2.5 WAR season where he hits the BABIP luckbox again, or you might get injuries, inconsistent defense, low batting average, low oba - for twice the money. The latter is much, much more likely. With Engel, who knows where the bottom might be offensively, and we’ve reiterated over and over again that the defensive wows don’t amount to nearly enough to outweigh it. I think you can pencil in Jay’s floor and his ceiling. There’s a comfort in some sort of certainty.
  3. should I be concerned about Herrera's Washington splits from last year?
  4. I like the way you think, but the conditional probabilities of getting both are not equivalent to the standalone probabilities of acquiring one. There's a very real chance that getting one means the White Sox simply no longer pursue the other.
  5. I've shifted my thinking on this over the last couple of months. Regardless of expectations, it really would be a massive disappointment if the White Sox didn't land one of these two players. At any price. With the way they have constructed this team, they should pay whatever it takes to get one of the best players in the game for the 5 years they expect to contend for a World Title. Even if it's a 10-12 year deal where they pay 5 bad years at the end. If they don't land one of them, and end up falling into the 85-90 wins/catch lightning in a bottle pattern they have tried to parlay into relevancy over the last 20 years, I think they really flirt with danger of losing relevance whatsoever. The culture of the casual fan in this town is 100% behind the Cubs baseball wise, and the Bears are good again. If we don't pay through the nose to get one of the best players in the game, in their prime, we're just dumb. And probably fucked. We need to make that kind of splash NOW.
  6. Greg Hibbard

    White Sox trying to trade Avi Garcia?

    haha I guess that is a stretch. I just meant in terms of how someone will overvalue him.
  7. Greg Hibbard

    White Sox trying to trade Avi Garcia?

    Avi Garcia is the Carlos Lee of this era. Some team will give him a ton of cash and regret it. I hope it's not us.
  8. Greg Hibbard

    Frank Thomas vs. Albert Pujols

    5-6 years ago I would have thought it would be out of the question to have a debate about who the better career hitter was, but Pujols' recent stat-crash has put his batting line below the Big Hurt's: Pujols: .302/.382/.554/.936 Thomas: .301/.419/.555/.974 Obviously, Pujols has 112 more homers and 140 more doubles, but Frank has 2000 less PAs (he had many strike and injury shortened seasons) and far more walks. Who do you think the better hitter is? It's likely that as long as he plays, Albert's career mark will continue to decline...should that count against him in the comparison? He's still younger than Frank was at retirement...
  9. Greg Hibbard

    Rogers speculates Sox might extend Abreu

    I'm sure he's shooting higher, but there's no way Jose Abreu gets $18M a year in FA next year at his age, right?
  10. Greg Hibbard

    Rogers speculates Sox might extend Abreu

    I don't mind 4/52-55. Everything else is way too much for diminishing returns.
  11. Greg Hibbard

    Abreu wants to stay long term

    Pay $16 million re-evaluate after 2019 nobody else will pay him big money considering his age he has a preference for the Sox so they have the advantage in negotiation why on earth do anything else?
  12. Greg Hibbard

    Rebuild

    These are the two things I think the board is greatly split on. 1) Anderson was a 2.5 WAR player, basically in the top 150 of all players. He had an OPS 10 points higher than 2017 despite a BABIP 39 points lower. Given his BABIP, what did you exactly expect him to do, offensively? 2) Moncada showed improvement on strikeouts after August 16th. He only struck out 45 of his last 161 plate appearances (27.9%) as opposed to the 172 times in his previous 489 plate appearances (35.1%). His OPS in September was .767. I still think he's a year behind many people on development, if not more, due to the time he was compelled to sit out to get over here. He essentially didn't play pro ball for the better part of 18 months at a crucial time. Over the next 1000 PAs I expect a significant improvement from him. I still think he'll be a .790 OPS player with 25 homers, 30 2B, 70 BB, and 150 Ks. If Moncada and Anderson continue to improve, and if Kopech comes back healthy and Eloy performs as expected - and if Madrigal and Robert have significant ML value - the rebuild can only be termed a success. 2019 is the crucial year that will determine it.
  13. Greg Hibbard

    So is no one falling on the sword for 2018?

    That makes sense to me. Thanks for doing the math. Given that baseball is perhaps more rife with payroll disparity in that era than other sports, wouldn’t you think the median would be lower than the mean, given teams like the Red Sox and Yankees who spent their way to the AL playoffs year after year after year, especially in the late 90s and 00s?
  14. Greg Hibbard

    So is no one falling on the sword for 2018?

    I hate to drag the discussion back from the abyss of attendance, but this post from a few pages ago really bothers me. Yes, the White Sox had an era from 1920-1982 where they made the playoffs just once, which was the worst of probably any franchise by far. Since then they've made the playoffs 5 times. Here's all the teams that haven't gone to the playoffs more than the White Sox since 1983: Milwaukee (3), Kansas City (4), Cincinnati (5), Miami (2), Seattle (4), Tampa Bay (4), Expos/Nationals (4), Padres (5), Rockies (5). Yes I realize a few of those teams weren't born until well after 1983. A handful of other teams have gone 6 times since 1983 (Arizona, Baltimore, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh). It seems to me that 5-6-7 playoff appearances is about the median for baseball teams over the past 35 years. I think it's also worth pointing out that the mighty New York Yankees only went to the postseason 5 times during the 30 year stretch of 1965-1994.
  15. Greg Hibbard

    So is no one falling on the sword for 2018?

    Ok, so let me be clear on your take here. Another aspect of my point is that Palka was able to put up the equivalent of a 1.0 season in his very first 449 PAs. I think more importantly though, his HR/PA and WAR vastly improved from his first 200 PAs compared to his last 250. Do you think that improvement is luck/illusory or growth?
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