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About CWSOX45

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    Late Inning Replacement
  • Birthday 02/08/1979

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    New Jersey

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    Charlotte Knights (AAA)
  1. CWSOX45

    Part Time Thome Kills Sox Again

    QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 13, 2010 -> 05:40 PM) That isn't true at all... Twins team WAR since 2002 2002: 26.9 (4th in AL, Sox were 6th) 2003: 24.7 (3rd in AL, Sox were 4th) 2004: 18.4 (10th in AL, Sox were 4th) 2005: 15.2 (12th in AL, Sox were 10th) 2006: 23.8 (3rd in AL, Sox were 7th) 2007: 14.2 (11th in AL, Sox were last) 2008: 18.5 (9th in AL, Sox were 8th) 2009: 22.4 (5th in AL, Sox were 13th) 2010: 28.6 (2nd in AL, Sox are 9th) Outside of 2004 and 2005, the Twins had more productive players in every single season. WAR doesn't hate the Twins and their so said "replacement level players". They might have produced only one good year and fell out of oblivion (Jason Tyner and Lew Ford?), but when they did play, they hurt everybody, not just the White Sox. I never said WAR hated the Twins. I said they have "replacement players" AAA or 4A players that are called up and take the place of recent departures, and contribute immediately at the big league level, and most of them aren't considered replacement players because they contribute far beyond what they are expected to. Isn't that the definition Fangraphs uses as a "replacement player" a career AAA or 4A player? Just take a look at some of these names: 2002: Bobby Kielty: 2.5, Dustan Mohr: 2.0, 2003: Matthew LeCroy: 1.3, Mike Ryan 1.0, 2004: Lew Ford 3.7 2005: Nick Punto: 3.1, Jason Tyner 1.3 2008: Brendan Harris 1.2 I don't really understand where you disagree with, because I never stated that Fangraphs hated the Twins. I commend the Twins as they do a good job of getting production from "replacement players." They do it all the time, and that's what's so frustrating because we can't. What's even more depressing, is that we will most likely continue to see this continue as well.
  2. CWSOX45

    Part Time Thome Kills Sox Again

    QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 13, 2010 -> 05:31 PM) Rather than go after the full post...I'm taking the easiest bit of data to check. Batting average and OPS with RISP and 2 outs in 2010: Texas: .295/.818. Chicago Sox: .279/.808. Minnesota Twins: .273/.799. The White Sox did a fine job with 2 outs and RISP this year. Better than the Twins so far. Certainly not substantially worse. The White Sox, however, have fewer chances with 2 outs and RISP than the Twins. That could, of course, relate to the fact that the twins have a .344 team OBP, while the White Sox have a .332 team OBP. The Twins also have a higher OBP with 2 outs and RISP. Therefore...a much more relevant stat is overall the fact that the Twins simply put more guys on base than the White Sox. Worth noting as well is that the White Sox are #2 in the AL in Sacrifice bunts (behind Texas) while the Twins are #8 and well into the back part of the league. Getting the bunt down has less to do with this than any of your other points. Your point on them not running themselves out of innings though...H. Christ I just looked at this. The White Sox have 71 caught stealings on the year. The Twins have 26. Something tells me that's a big part of the reason why the Twins have more runs with 2 outs than us. Thanks for looking those numbers up. The CS is very alarming. Then there is this: Sox vs AL Central: 30-33 Twins vs AL Central: 40-20.
  3. CWSOX45

    Part Time Thome Kills Sox Again

    QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Sep 13, 2010 -> 12:16 AM) Number wise: Thome has been worth 3.3 WAR this year. Subtract 3 wins from Twins and they're 82-61. Add 3 to us and we're 82-61. Round up to 4 wins and they're 81-62 and we're 83-60. Jesus christ, enough with the Wins Above Replacement jargon. We can sit here and beat this to death all day. I'm not saying that WAR isn't a good metric to measure overall talent of a player, but it has its flaws, and simply saying that adding Jim Thome to our roster would equate in 3 plus wins and taking away 3 wins from the Twins is a ridiculous hypothetical assumption. Especially when all the Twins do is produce what Fangraphs would define as "Replacement Level Players." I swear to god we've been beat by career AAA, and AAAA+ Twins players for the last 10+ years. The Twins have been the same team they have been for the past decade, regardless of who is on that roster they play the game the right way. They execute in critical situations, they do the little things like driving a man in on 3rd with less than 2 outs. (Something we have really struggled with in the past and present.) They get bunts down, they don't run themselves out of innings, and most importantly each and every hitter has a plan when they step up to the plate. They also play sound defense, they don't beat themselves. You have to beat them. You want to know why the Sox aren't in first this year and the Twins are? Look at the god d**mn records against Central Division foes. The Twins beat Central Division teams, they beat them early, they beat them late, and they beat them often. We didn't, and we still don't as recently as last week. Pinning this all on not bringing back Thome is ridiculous. There are so many variables that come into effect with this. We didn't start playing baseball until June, the bullpen was atrocious in the month of August, and most importantly the major difference between us and the Twins is simple baseball execution. The bottom line is statistics have their spot in the game, but it's insane to simply just suggest that adding one player immediately adds 3 plus wins to our team. If we had kept Thome, would we have been better on paper? Yes absolutely, but does Jim put up the exact pace of production that he has with the Twins? Who knows....my gut feeling tells me no, but at the same time he would easily would have surpassed Kotsay's production, there's no doubt about that. Again let me just reiterate that I like WAR, wOBA, and other statistics to measure performance, but using WAR in an instance like this just doesn't work for me. It's the same thing with Fangraphs pitch values. People read those values and automatically think their highest rated pitch value is their best pitch, when in actuality its the furthest thing from the truth. Tim Lincecum is a good example, last I checked his highest rated pitch was his change-up...why? Because he records outs with that pitch, strikeouts, ground outs, whatever. However what fangraphs doesn't take into consideration is that they don't reward his fastball enough that helps set up that change-up. Without that fastball the change-up is not nearly as effective, and it's value is not nearly as high. It just goes back to the age old rule of thumb, the best pitch is a well located fastball, regardless of what these "ratings" suggest. The bottom line is that sabermetrics don't always translate and carry over to reality, and specifically in this instance they're just hypothetical explanations on what could have been. All of them have their flaws, UZR, WAR, etc. and shouldn't always be "the final answer." After speaking with old time scouts and "stat heads" both sides seem to think their way is the concrete way to evaluate talent, when the fact of the matter is the best way to do this is to have a good balance of both. Sorry I got carried away...back to Thome. Not having Jim Thome didn't cost us the division, but it had a hand in it. To me we are six back because we did not execute and we did not beat the teams in our own division.
  4. That's all for me. Enjoy your Saturday evening folks.
  5. QUOTE (South Side Fireworks Man @ Sep 11, 2010 -> 07:40 PM) Sox are gonna win this one. They have to. Not looking good. Team looks flat.
  6. Miserable. That's the mood I am in right now. Please get out of this inning only allowing one run. We can't afford to be down by more than a slam.
  7. QUOTE (Real @ Sep 11, 2010 -> 05:48 PM) Call this juvenile but I hope West and Hernandez both take fatal linedrives off their balls tonight, yes fatal ball shots. Preferably off AJ's bat I have a feeling Ozzie won't be making it to the 9th inning again if these calls keep up.
  8. Hawk just ripping West and Hernandez right now. Its times like this that I love hearing Hawk call games.
  9. we just love digging ourselves into holes.
  10. QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 10, 2010 -> 07:28 PM) Lots of talk inside Sox org, in the media, etc. that KW is going the Paxson route of becoming Sox VP, etc. and Hahn takes over. Interesting. I hadn't heard that being out east. I actually like the role Hahn is in now.
  11. QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 10, 2010 -> 07:25 PM) 60%...assuming we just go quietly into the offseason. What makes you think something like that is going to happen? (Not being critical, just curious.)
  12. Isn't Angel Hernandez the loser umpire that threw out Mongo at Wrigley after the 7th inning stretch? Looks like we have the All-Ego Umpire crew on the field tonight.
  13. Buehrle: 4 balks this year, all 4 in games with Joe West and his crew. Unreal.