NorthSideSox72

1968 virus: killed close to 100k in the US... over a period from Fall of 1968 to Spring of 1970, approximately 18 months. COVID has done that in 3 months. Six times the gross death rate. 1957 virus: Similar numbers, but over 3 years (with a middle lag year that was smaller) - again, COVID many, many times more deadly and more transmissable. Also worth noting on this one, a vaccine was ready by the time it started hitting the US hard, because it was a flu variant (COVID is not). So two keys here. One, COVID is far more contagious and is killing people far more quickly. Which makes early countermeasures key to success. Second, those things happened 50-60 years ago - and we are now in a place with much more advanced medicine and science. Just wanted to point these things out for important context.

Yeah, they may have a stricter layer they keep on top. I'm in the burbs fortunately, but I can fully understand why the city may want to keep certain restrictions tighter for now.

Barring a fairly huge spike in the last couple weeks of May, it looks very likely the whole state is going to Phase 3 on the 30th.

Not as huge testing numbers as yesterday, but that will still lower the 7-day average. Progress continues.

Yeah I have zero sympathy for people upset about wearing a mask in public spaces and businesses. We've abided by no shirt, no shoes, no service forever. This is a change but it is tiny and goes a long way to allowing us to get back to semi-normal.

Tex, I think it is absolutely a balance, so in that sense I agree with you. It is true we cannot stay in the relatively full-on lockdown (for all non-essential activities) forever. There are very real economic impacts for people that are now out of work, going bankrupt, etc. I agree that looking at gradual re-openings is something every state should be doing. It's just a question of how to create a "curve" that is a function approaching, but not superseding, the limitations of our health care system in capacity of all relevant types (hospitalization, ICU levels, ventilators, personnel). Some states (like Iowa) decided to re-open right when their case loads were going up in a hurry, which was stupid and now we are starting to see signs the virus will hit rural areas that do not have much surge capacity. But on the other hand, in states where capacity headroom is still very good, some partial re-opening makes sense.

lol I saw this poll yesterday. Totally worthless. 583 voters across 15 states to get "battleground"? That's some of the worst methodology I have ever seen or heard. Look at the recent polls WITHIN each state, especially the states actually in play. Trump isn't ahead or even close in any state among those that he lost in 2016, meanwhile Biden is leading in 5 or 6 states Trump won. That's not to say Biden is a lock to win... just that the CNN poll in question is hot garbage.

Um, yeah, that's not what I said. I said I thought the court would not find for the plaintiffs because the legislature had the ability to override within the specified time window, and therefore had their own mechanism already in place. I just looked and it appears his first emergency order went in on March 12th, which is 63 days ago, past the 60-day limit. So now we are in a different legal scenario. Also if you read the decision, they focused in a big way on the "rules" enacted by the department of public health, saying that regardless of emergency that continuing long-term rules could not be done via the emergency and instead needed to go through legislative rule-making procedures. I find that argument crap, but that's the route they took. Also interesting, the ruling was 4-3, and one of the more conservative judges sided with Evers. And one of the 4 judges who ruled in majority is being replaced in August thanks to that recent election. Regardless, the 60 days have passed, and the legislature elected not to allow Evers further leeway OR extend the order, nor did the GOP issue their own plan or orders. Because the Wisconsin GOP is more interested in scoring points than who dies. So now there IS no plan or any rules or restrictions or even guidance at the state level. It's horrible. Fortunately, it looks like the mayors of some of the larger cities like Milwaukee and Madison and some others are electing to keep their own restrictions in place. At least until that becomes a legal issue.

WTF? You think I am saying ignore him because of his views on the pandemic orders? I am saying ignore him because HE IS PLAYING ALL OF YOU LIKE FIDDLES. This is his act. He's getting you all riled up and is enjoying it. And it's making the thread nearly unreadable. Please, I beg all of you, put the guy on Ignore, and stop responding to him as well (those of us that are Mods/Admins can't do the Ignore feature, but we can scroll past).

For the love of God people. STOP REPLYING TO GREG. Dude is getting you all twisted with his shtick, and it is working perfectly for him. Ignore him, and he will slowly fade away. Please, for all of us.

Pritzker's news release yesterday was some really good news, for those who missed it. They are using six measures to decide readiness for moving to next phases of re-opening, and the state is split into five regions. All but one region are "in the green", meaning on track to go to Phase 3 (the next phase), by May 27th when the current order expires. The one region not there, Northeast, is "in the green" on five measures, and the sixth (positivity rate of tests) they are this/close to getting there and still can before we are at the date. So it looks like most or all regions will be seeing Phase 3 within a couple weeks. Strange thing though - when I went paging through my social media feeds this morning, I see all these complaints about JB moving the goalposts, keeping people prisoner, all that stuff. I couldn't figure out what they meant until I realized they are thinking of the news that the peak is moving out to June, and somehow in their minds that meant waiting longer to open up. Basically, people aren't understanding how all this works. The moving out of the peak is actually a very GOOD thing, and the continued flattening is why we are looking at getting open SOONER. But people are so reactionary now, we get yelling and screaming about some nonsense. I really just wish people would read things all the way through, take a deep breath, and think for a few minutes before spouting off.

I have everything auto-categorized in Quicken, and I was looking at April vs March. Groceries (includes toiletries and anything else from the grocery store) up about 40% for us (family of 4), but dining down about 65%. Overall saving some money, But yeah, I feel you on the fruits. And cheeses, and cereals, and anything bready.

Flipping voters matters, but it won't be the biggest factor in November. Probably over 90% of the country that will vote made up their minds about the 2020 election by March of 2017 and haven't changed materially. There is only a very small slice to vary on there. What it will come down to is Dem and Independent voter turnout (because the GOP turns out in pretty much the same numbers every time, and the others are more flighty). If Dems and independents show up in November the way they did in 2018 (relatively), then Trump loses in a rout. If they are just kinda meh about voting (which I doubt, as the anger has not subsided), then Trump has a chance, though it would be very close. COVID will push some undecideds off Trump but not many.

It would be very hard to make a criminal case here, unless the supervisor in this case had disobeyed actual law on masks if any, or maybe if the supervisor defied corporate directives for safety. Barring either of those being the case, there is nothing to prosecute.

So it;'s funny, on Monday I reached out to the summer day camp our kids are both signed up for (North Shore YMCA), as well as the overnight camp the older kid is set for in July. Both said they were waiting for CDC guidance on camps and the like that was due to come out May 1st but didn't. Of course the state has to allow them to open, but they wanted the CDC guidance to hopefully make good decisions even IF the state said yes, as well as knowing what safety precautions to follow. And now I know why the didn't receive it. Because TrumpCo wants so badly for things to open that they will kill anything going out the door that indicates any hesitation whatsoever for things to be open quickly. So infuriating.

That plant and Cargill are going to lose a lot of money in a lawsuit soon. The supervisor told people not to wear the mask because it created fear? Come on. I actually don't think it would be much different. This isn't just a problem of election calculus. Trump has a hard time focusing on anything other than the shiny object right in front of him, incapable of thinking long-term. So he was never going to focus on re-opening in a way that makes the economic recovery smoother and better later. He wants results NOW, even though those results will be shitty. It's his nature. The upcoming election probably adds extra stress, but ultimately doesn't make much difference I think. Yeah this is a HUGE problem. People like my wife and I are lucky to have jobs we can mostly do from home, but for those who can't, they are going to be absolutely screwed when companies open and schools / day care don't. By the way this yet another example of Trump unwittingly shooting himself in the foot politically (and the sycophant governors in tow). The suburbs and ex-urbs in the Rust Belt are where this election is going to be won or lost for him. And this situation will decimate that exact set of voters, not to mention his own deeper support base in smaller towns in those states. So it is awful for people for the obvious reason AND politically stupid.

Sorry, did you get the impression I said this was in any way OK? It's not. I was just discussing the way I think it is likely to happen. Iowa continues to be the prime example of what happens next in rural America. It will be ugly.

I think short term there will be a trend that way. But I also think that as redder states and rural areas get hit harder, in places that didn't do much in the first place and are pushing to do even less now (see Iowa as a prime example), the deaths will increase and it will start to hit home a little harder. That will hit the GOP-leaning crowd much harder than they are being hit right now. Once a lot more people start knowing someone who died, see their own smaller communities hit by it, read about it in the local papers... they will see it more seriously.

See I actually took some hope from this poll, in terms of what it was not. It is not absolute D/R Blue/Red the way so many other issues are. I like that even among Republicans, who Trump nominally serves, less than half of them want most of those things to re-open right now. To me, this is encouraging, versus what we see in many other areas of politics right now.

lol numbers are numbers man, this isn't a subjective thing. Sweden's fatality rates is many times higher than the other countries in Scandanavia, and substantially higher than the US rate as well. You can agree or disagree on the approach, but the numbers are there whether you like them or not. It is simply reality. I agree. Certainly it might be the deepest crisis the country has faced in the lifetimes of some younger folks, that is true. But this "ever" thing reflects a very poor understanding of US history.

Source?

I was thinking about this last night and realized there is actually a third option here (other than the two judicial ones - order good, order bad). The Illinois Assembly could in theory pass a short bill to amend the IMEA code to add a legislative trigger at the 30 day mark. In other words, orders could be extended, or new orders on the same disaster issued, past 30 days with legislative consent. That way the check and balance are there against the executive, but the door remains open if needed for extension. (by the way I posted a few days back about Wisconsin already having this trigger in place, or one like it) Of course that would require the Assembly to come into session, write a bill, pass both chambers, and get the governor to sign it, all before Friday and during a pandemic. So, a bit of a long shot.

Oh the judge is a crusader, you can tell by his statement about the order "shredding" the Constitution. But the legal question around the intent of the 30 days is a good, and precarious one. It's a real issue.

This should be interesting. I've read the statutes in question. There's no question about the governor's authority to declare these orders. The only thread that Bailey can hang on is that the statute specifies a 30 day limit to the order. Of course, Pritzker's order beginning 5/1 is a new order technically, not an extension, but that gets into the muddled territory of legal spirit of the 30 day limitation. That puts the whole thing in the who-knows-what-happens-next column. Next up, Illinois Appellate Court. Then, most likely regardless of outcome, IL Supreme Court.

Their base assumption that transmission and fatality rates are similar to the flu are demonstrably wrong, and by a lot. That has nothing to do with being a doctor in any case, and simply means looking at numbers. If this WAS like a flu season, then they might be right, though even then you'd be essentially having a DOUBLE flu season so it would still be very bad.