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NorthSideSox72

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Everything posted by NorthSideSox72

  1. NorthSideSox72

    Pandemic Reading

    I've spent a lot of time in ABQ and Santa Fe - had family out there, my sister lived there, I owned property in NM, etc. DM me if you want to chat about living in NM.
  2. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I've never even heard of Tony's. Googling, looks like you mean Tony's Fresh Market? No, looks like they don't do much in the north burbs other than Niles (and there are like a hundred grocery stores closer than that for me). I appreciate the idea though, thanks.
  3. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Amazon, just checked, has basically nothing for TP.
  4. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    We've tried CVS and Walgreens nearby too, calling or stopping in. Nothing. That's an idea I hadn't considered, thanks. We are OK for now anyway, but within a week we will be in dire straits on TP.
  5. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    In the north burbs, the couple grocery stores we go to have been pretty well stocked in almost everything food-wise. A little short on pasta for a bit there and some other staple goods had slim pickings but not permanently. But they are still, and have been for a couple weeks, just completely cleaned out of paper goods and handwashing soaps. I mean literally zero of all of those things, having visited each a few times and called at times in between to ask.
  6. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    And Illinois now extends it's lockdown to April 30th (not really a surprise).
  7. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    The idea that the Chinese intentionally created the virus, to kill a bunch of their people and then watch the world struggle with it after, is so preposterous on it's face that it's on par with believing the world is flat. That doesn't mean that anyone trusts the info from China, of course. There is plenty of reason to believe the number of cases and deaths in China is not accurate - some causes being intentional and some not.
  8. NorthSideSox72

    Pandemic Reading

    They are attempting another film version of it. Hoping this one might be decent, especially with Villeneuve directing it.
  9. NorthSideSox72

    Pandemic Reading

    If you want a book that is Civil War era but focused on the west, one of the best-written and most engaging history books I've ever read is Blood and Thunder by Hampton Sides. Nominally a biography of Kit Carson, really more a lens into the "Winning" of the West.
  10. NorthSideSox72

    Pandemic Reading

    Finished so far in March: The Ends of the World (covers the mass extinctions the Earth has experienced and their causes, etc.), by Peter Brannen Thunder in the Mountains (about the Nez Perce War, Chief Joseph and Oliver Otis Howard), by Daniel Sharfstein Now on: Eisenhower in War and Peace, by Jean Edward Smith Next in the stack: House Made of Dawn, by N Scott Momaday Hillbilly elegy, by JD Vance I got some time, so I figure this is the time to hit the heavy stuff.
  11. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    If by resurrection you mean of the virus, and if Trump has his way, that's pretty accurate.
  12. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Sorry, maybe I wasn't totally clear what I meant about getting it over with. Short term nation-wide lockdown will flatten the curve. Not as much as it would have had the federal government acted when it should have, but we are past that now. It will flatten it a lot better than doing nothing. Then once you force the curve down, you can create a long, low tail for the months after, and that is the best case scenario. If we go the Trump method, with a half-ass lockdown and then start opening things back up while the curve is still going up, that will cause a lot more death AND make the economic impact worse. So, when I say let's get it over with, I mean let's do the lockdown thing right now.
  13. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I really wish people would stop discussing the restriction timelines as if it was economy versus lives. That is a totally false choice. The economy is going to be in the crapper for at least weeks and likely months, no matter what. The questions really are A) how many lives do we want to lose and B) when the recovery can actually begin. Once you look at the true question that way, it becomes obvious we need to get serious about the lockdown right the hell now, as an entire nation. That not only will save lives, it will also mean we can get through this and move on faster.
  14. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Iowa might be his strongest of all those states right now. You're right though - this was supposed to be about COVID, including Trump's part in it, but we've gone well off course. Partly my fault too. Sorry. Carry on with Corona!
  15. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    He spent a little time underwater in his 4th year, that is true. Was around even-money at election time. Still a far better showing than Trump now, but more importantly and as I said and you keep ignoring, look at his spike for 9/11. Where is Trump's spike? And if he doesn't have a material one, does that mean he also doesn't go down after? That's the operative question. And there was nowhere near the level of anger against Bush in 2004 that there was against Trump now. Not even close. Which is what will drive voters. YOU might have really hated Bush, but the American public was not nearly as energized as it is right now (in both directions).
  16. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I am not sure where you are getting your numbers about WI. Here are the polling averages I am seeing for the key states I mentioned, using Trump vs Biden head-to-heads, in B-rated and higher polls, for March, by range: FL: Trump +1 to Biden +1 (this is a dead heat, as you pointed out) OH: Biden +4 (this is a very surprising one, but only one poll out) PA: Biden +6 MI: Biden +3 to Biden +7 WI: Biden +2 to Biden +6 AZ: Biden +1 to Biden +8 (this one is particularly interesting to me, with AZ in play it changes the landscape a bit) MN, NV, IA: *No head-to-head polls in last few weeks And again, Trump needs to win almost all of those to win the Presidency. Biden only needs a couple or three depending on which ones.
  17. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    You're kinda making my point. W's approval rating was in the 50's before 9/11, and immediately shot up to like 80%+. It fell over time and around this equivalent time was right around 50% again - exactly what I was saying. And now look at Trump who has not been above water since February of 2017. Where is Trump's huge bump? It seems nearly non-existent.
  18. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    That's true, but it's not like he needs name recognition. And even his own supporters tend to wince when he does those pressers, but support him anyway. I don't think those commercials are helping him. Any spike he might be getting is more like patriotism - the support of our leader in a crisis, just like W got after 9/11.
  19. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    There are better candidates in my view, but less fit than Trump? LOL, come on man. And I don't just mean my view, look at how he matches up with Trump in all the key states. Also one of my main points is that Dems and Indies won't show up because they love the candidate - notice I didn't even mention Biden. It's that they despise Trump. And even though people certainly liked Obama, it was despising everything Obama and Clinton are/were that in great part drove people to Trump. In our current society, anger wins over love in politics.
  20. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I never check any one poll, and Gallup especially. Try here instead, netting a lot of polls using historically-adjusted factors, to get the trend. There is a tiny spike, maybe, in the last couple days, but it's early to tell. Even if it really exists AND holds, he's still underwater, and only a couple points better than he was, which was pretty bad. And of course if he has his way, and deaths spike further, that will evaporate. Also worth noting, he's consistently had the worst ratings of any modern President (not worst at bad peak, but staying well into negative for almost his entire term). The last Presidents to be in his position (same or worse approval) in a similar timeframe were Carter and HW, See what happened to them.
  21. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Not as profound, but it was there. And as I illustrated, the motivations were very different. But there was something similar that is worth keeping in mind.
  22. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Not a chance. He was already teetering before this hit. First, keep in mind the Presidential election is really about just 8 or 9 states (PA, FL, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, NV, AZ), and remember he really has to win all of them (or all but one depending on the one). All the other states are locked in already. Now look at how he's doing in those states today - he's down big in all but two, one of them (OH) he's pretty strong. The polls have error in them you say? Of course they do. So don't take them at face value, compare them on trend. Look where he his now versus November of 2016. He won by a whisker in 2016 and he's collapsed back in support in almost every state in contention for this cycle. Second, there is a crisis curve when it comes to Presidential support. Typically when a crisis hits, very shortly after, support for the President spikes up, no matter who the President is. Then, after some months of seeing the effects, they settle back. Now look at Trump's approval ratings in the past two weeks. They didn't spike, but didn't go down either - they are really in the same place they were. So best case for him, his numbers are inelastic to events, which takes me up to my first point. Worst case for Trump, he gets the slide down, and will be in an even worse position. Third and finally, this race will come down (in my view) to one thing - turnout among Democrats and Independents. Why? Because Republicans turn out reliably anyway, cycle after cycle. Democrats and independents don't. This is something the left has always struggled with. They didn't show up in 2016 because it looked like the race between two evils to a lot of people. This time? Look at the 2018 midterms. There is a deep anger among those not very conservative, against Trump. It drove huge turnout in 2018, and boom, blue wave. If the left and center are still angry in November 2020 (and I'd bet they will be), they will show up in much larger numbers. And then not only does Trump lose, he loses big. Feel free to call me on this in November. This is my guess. I could be wrong, but I feel pretty good about it. Trump's chances in November are less than 20%.
  23. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    You know, if I'm being fair, there was certainly a portion of Obama's base that was also going to defend whatever he did. So what's different? Obama was never asking them to walk off a cliff like Trump is. Obama also never went after people hatefully as his example to those fervent supporters. And he actually embraced expertise and science. So where Obama certainly had his automotons thinking everything was rosy and great all the time (it wasn't) and Hope would make it all OK (it didn't), Trump's same group is reveling in ignorance and hate. That's the difference.
  24. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    There's no "borderline" about it. There is a base within his support that is absolutely behaving like a cult.
  25. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I just want to make sure people understand, the stimulus bill is $2T, not $6T. Any indication of support from Congress to the Fed, who can act independently in this regard to a great extent anyway, for QE measures or other market actions, are not spends of taxpayer dollars. That's not how it works. Now on the $2T, I don't know what all is in there exactly and there may very well be corporate bailout stuff (in fact I am sure there will be, at least some of it). Those details I would like to see.
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