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NorthSideSox72

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Everything posted by NorthSideSox72

  1. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Where are you getting 6 trillion dollars?
  2. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I am very confident it is there, but wouldn't pretend to know the extent. No idea how much. I don't think it is intentional, I think it's just passing things over and assuming it is something else. I would guess this is especially happening in countries with less advanced medical systems, and where the virus (and the news about it) haven't yet taken a deep hold. But also, part of the problem with diagnosing any illness is that so many of them have overlapping symptoms, and multiple can be present at one time. If a 75-year-old patient with mild emphazema dies of respiratory complications, they might not even test for COVID after the fact.
  3. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    In addition to the unreported cases that probably exist in large numbers, I wonder about deaths too. Things like homicide rates are pretty reliable because it is really hard to hide one. But this thing could be killing people, especially in less advanced countries and even rural parts of the US, and people are or were just assuming it was something mundane or a pre-existing condition. Especially since it hits people already immuno-compromised the hardest.
  4. That makes sense. I was wondering how they went through a scouting session, medical and signing given MLB is in lockdown.
  5. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Those photos in NYT are really something.
  6. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    And people who need it for existing conditions, like Lupus, are having trouble getting it too. All because of the president's verbal diarrhea. I agree that people self-medicating with it is dumb on it's face. People do stupid things regardless of Trump. But he can't just go saying the incorrect stuff he does (saying how powerful it is and can be a treatment when that is not at all known yet) and not expect consequences.
  7. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    It's like everyone other than Trump sees the situation deepening and a need for the whole country to do more, but he's already mentally leaped to the end game and wants so badly to open the doors again. Are any disease experts actually saying it should be time to open things up again in a week, like he says he's looking forward to?
  8. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Begun? He never stopped really. Softened a bit, but now going back to dismissing it again. He really doesn't get math, or even the basics of how these things work that he could glean by just listening to his own experts.
  9. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    So.. where is Dr Fauci? Normally I wouldn't make a thing of him being or not being at a given daily confab, except this comes the day after he made public statements about Trump's incorrect statements. Not sure I believe that is a coincidence.
  10. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    TO ALL - As this is such a huge issue, we want to keep the subject open. However, let's do what we can to avoid the partisan politics. We closed the Filibuster forum for a reason. And we will delete posts as needed in here. I realize it's impossible to discuss this without at least some reference to political leaders. Just keep it civil and try to avoid the taking sides. Thank you.
  11. NorthSideSox72

    Sox on YouTube

    Don't forget too, FutureSox has a YouTube Channel that is 100% free with hundreds of prospect videos found nowhere else. There are a few from this spring training and last, and a whole lot from previous minor league seasons, of many current (and former) prospects. You can search the channel by player name if you are looking for someone specific. And if you subscribe you'll get an email whenever a new batch of videos goes up (whenever that might be, haha).
  12. NorthSideSox72

    Market/Financial Thread

    1. No one knows the true percentage of criminal movement in either case, but it will be orders of magnitude higher on cryptos. 2. I could care less what Mnuchin says or does, except when it effects policy. But there is a large chunk of the world of finance that agrees with my take, so, I guess you can pick anyone you'd like. They see it for it's potential but not as an actual currency. 3. On your other post, you really actually think that moving funds from USD (or other core currencies) to crypto is giving "the people" power? That's like saying moving money into some non-licensed scheme run by Tony Breakyourface is giving you more control. Sure it's moving partially out of the regulated space but you are entering the financial void too. That's not power, it's gambling.
  13. NorthSideSox72

    Market/Financial Thread

    Bitcoin, and other cryptos, are not currencies. Currency must have two factors to exist. First is of course something that can be traded for goods or services - and that it does, albeit mostly in the area of illegal trade. But it does achieve that. Second is to have some sort of backing that establishes its underlying value. That can be gold or silver, or a governmental body (like the US Treasury and the Fed, for example) and it's guarantee and infrastructure. Bitcoin does not have this. That is the principle reason why you see it being traded like a gamble, and avoided in broad use. The existence of so much illegal trade, the lack of confidence in it's underpinnings and other factors are at play too of course, but that fundamental lack of existence of a currency is the main reason. Crypto and block chain, together and separate, have lots of potential in the business world. But cryptos are just not currencies.
  14. NorthSideSox72

    Market/Financial Thread

    There was no "job freeze" in 2009. It was a recession... Real estate has appreciated quite dramatically since 2009, and not coincidentally, home values are now at a point where they WOULD have been had the curve stayed historically typical from about 2002 to present... Bank savings is now and has always been a pretty terrible investment vehicle - nothing has changed much before or after 2009... Social Security is in no material danger in the next few decades, and any looming crunch can be handled pretty easily. But hey you're right about government debt exploding. No argument there. I think you confuse trust with perspective.
  15. NorthSideSox72

    FS: What's Driving Mercedes' Power?

    I think the main point is that spring stats are darn close to meaningless either way.
  16. Wasn't expecting to read about Timmy in the Times this morning, yet here he is.
  17. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Maybe? I don't know, was just pointing out that Greece, if it was faced with a cell of the infection, would probably struggle the same way Italy does. The only internal advantage I see for them is fewer large urban centers and a more rural-spread population.
  18. NorthSideSox72

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Have you been to Italy? I love Italy but it is the polar opposite of a country like Germany. They couldn't really "lock down" much of anything even if they wanted to, not effectively. The government agencies are just far too disorganized, and the people far too devil-may-care, for them to handle something like this very well. Not at all surprised that Italy is struggling hardest in Europe, though Greece being similar would also not surprise me.
  19. NorthSideSox72

    Market/Financial Thread

    This isn't how markets work. If there was a "promise" or even nearly one of another 10-15% drop, then the markets would have already gone there.
  20. NorthSideSox72

    Nicky Delmonico: An amazing comeback story

    Is this lifted from an article? If so, please source it, and probably should not be copying and pasting that much of a piece here.
  21. NorthSideSox72

    FS: What's Driving Mercedes' Power?

    You should probably re-read my post then. Because that is not what I did. I listed, literally, every Sox system player in the last 8 or 9 seasons who fit the general profile of Yermin: late 20's age (25+), C/1B positional slot, big AAA numbers, no former major leaguers. How on earth do you get "random" from that? What you are saying I should have done, is exactly what I did. On the bolded, do you know why those weren't listed? Because within that profile I just mentioned... there aren't any, other than Phegley, whom I listed. At least on the Sox. I did not look at the other 29 AAA teams but feel free to do so. You will find the same pattern - very few ever do anything meaningful in the majors.
  22. NorthSideSox72

    FS: What's Driving Mercedes' Power?

    So you have gone from saying Yermin should get a shot because he's put up big numbers, to now saying that those numbers have no predictive ability. Welcome to the dark side! Also, cherry-picking indicates taking only specific data points that fit. In this case I set specific criteria, all of which line up with the player in question, and listed all players to fit that criteria, using their statistical performance which is the reason you were supporting your argument. I used your argument, and showed you how the same argument played out previously. Now if you want to set an envelope and show me how Mercedes has more than a sliver of a chance of success based on other cases, feel free.
  23. NorthSideSox72

    FS: What's Driving Mercedes' Power?

    I was responding specifically to how he has raked at Charlotte. Anyway, it is true he has generally hit well, but his numbers didn't truly get to these mashing-level values until the last year or two. I don't think you know what a straw man is. What I did was show you a list of examples of players whose numerical profiles at AAA for similar positions and ages are not encouraging. That is called comparison. And on the bolded, it was you who talked about him putting up big numbers. That is what I was responding to. Of course the opposite happens, in fact that makes the point more deeply. That numbers should only be a small part of the picture when evaluating likely future outcomes for prospects. Yermin is fine for what he is - the 5th catcher on the depth chart. Emergency depth in AAA with a small possibility of doing something meaningful in the majors value-wise. But the idea of him leaping over any of Grandal, McCann, Collins or Zavala, or any of the 1B/DH candidates either, is being way over-hyped here. It would be a mistake. Not because anyone has a 100% or 0% chance of being good, but because Mercedes' odds are far longer than those other players.
  24. NorthSideSox72

    FS: What's Driving Mercedes' Power?

    Now there I do agree with you. Collins' contact rate is a significant concern.
  25. NorthSideSox72

    FS: What's Driving Mercedes' Power?

    Seriously? Putting aside that AAA numbers in a vacuum mean very little in predicting major league performance, let's go with your numbers example anyway. Both are players who are nominally catchers but probably more 1B/DH-types long term who can occasionally catch... Player A: Took 260 games over 2.5 years to reach AAA, where he put up a .951 OPS in 88 games at age 24 Player B: Took 564 games over 8.5 years to reach AAA, where he put up a 1.033 OPS in 53 games at age 26 Can you not understand the context here? I want Yermin to succeed, he's a fun player and I hope he kicks ass (and he might!). But literally anyone who follows prospects and minor leaguers, as scouts or journalists, will tell you that you cannot just look at someone who mashed in AAA for a half season and assume they will do the same in the majors. The correlation factor there is very small. Dan Black did the same thing in AAA, at the same age as Yermin (and got there a lot faster). They are even similarly built and both were itinerant catchers. Black never saw the majors. You can make a list with at least one player almost every year in Charlotte who does this, and the great majority either don't see the majors or get there but provide no value. Further proof? Here's a list of players, year, and age in AAA for the Knights the last 8 years or so, who played some combo of C and/or 1B, and posted strong (let's say mid-800's OPS or better) numbers at age 25+, playing at least a few weeks there (and I'll leave out the ones who had played a lot of MLB before their AAA time)... Matt Skole, 2019, 29, .880 OPS Danny Hayes, 2016, 25, .847 OPS Dan Black, 2015, 27, 1.025 OPS (closest approximation) Andy Wilkins, 2014, 25, .896 OPS Josh Phegley, 2014, 26, .861 OPS Josh Phegley, 2013, 25, .966 OPS Seth Loman, 2013, 27, .861 OPS What does that list tell you? Some never even made it to the majors. Of the ones who did, only one put up a positive WAR for their career (Phegley). And in Phegley's case he had only about 300 career MiLB games prior to that 2013 explosion. Not 564. Plus he is more legitimately a catcher. Be very wary of AAA numbers without context. That is why people are pushing back.
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