WCSox

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jul 29, 2011 -> 09:13 AM) Sadly this is very true, but I hope Viciedo is a different case. I hope so as well, but I think it's silly to make that gamble before November. Quentin will still have trad value at that point.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jul 29, 2011 -> 09:05 AM) His .840 OPS last year with a horrible walk rate is pretty damn nice. 38 games is a pretty small sample size. Viciedo would be far from the first player to show a flash of productivity and then tail off for a couple of years. Crede, who was an bona fide stud in the minors, put up an .826 OPS in 53 games in 2002, and then proceeded to drop below .750 until late 2005.

QUOTE (sircaffey @ Jul 29, 2011 -> 08:55 AM) I think you are overblowing this whole white flag trade comparison. That trade involved 2 SP and the team's closer. It's magnitude is far greater than just a Quentin trade, especially since the fanbase knows who Viciedo is and is excited for his arrival. You guys are putting way too much faith in Viciedo, who is far from a proven major league commodity. I like him a lot over the long run, but he's still very young and will have his ups and downs. BTW, Mike Sirotka out-pitched Wilson Alvarez down the stretch in 1997. But nobody cared, because the damage was already done.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Jul 29, 2011 -> 08:57 AM) The 2006 St Louis Cardinals say hi As do the 2006 Colts

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 29, 2011 -> 08:50 AM) You've got to admit, holding Quentin for another 2 months is always a risk because of injury. D1, ok, hold him unless someone offers the moon, especially since he's already had a down season and a stellar 2 months could make him look even better. Quentin? That's a more iffy question, it's hard to expect him to perform better than this, he's always a health risk, and there are seemingly multiple teams in competition for him to help win now. That's a real good place to be in from the perspective of doing the deal now. Yeah, he is a health risk. But who's going to make up that level of production? I like Viciedo a lot, but he's probably not going to post an .860 OPS down the stretch. So dealing Quentin now is an offensive downgrade. And I don't think this offense can withstand that. And speaking of injury risks, "Glass Jaw" Peavy is the biggest risk of all. Yet that didn't stop Kenny from dealing Jackson, who was both effective and a great insurance policy. Dumb move, IMO.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 29, 2011 -> 05:57 AM) I'm not sure if this team hasn't conjured up just as much anger as anything. We are down over 10% YoY in attendance, and we have yet to see any hop in summer numbers like we normally do. Usually this time of year we are drawing in the low 30's, which even if you look at he huge detroit numbers that were just here, we are still way down over where we should be. It sounds like to me like fans are already voting with their wallets, and they want change. What we have done hasn't worked, fans haven't been showing up. I'm not quite sure how much the ownership group is supposed to hold on to this in your eyes, but this has been coming for a while. the Sox are not the team to support a record payroll with a big drop in attendance and a team that hasn't been over .500 since April. The players failed, and now it looks like many are getting replaced. I can support that. Oh, I agree that change is needed. I was hoping for a massive overhaul this winter (and not more of the unsustainable retooling-on-the-fly crap that hasn't worked over the past 2 1/2 years), and was pretty surprised that they decided to ADD payroll and sign Dunn instead. So, yeah, I'm completely on board with you here. I just think that doing it while 3 games out in July, in a bad division, and with a very talented lineup whose productivity has nowhere to go but up is crazy. Why not wait until December to move guys like Quentin and Danks? Sure, you'll get a little less for them than right now, but you're still going to get decent value for those guys. And there's the added bonus of no PR hit from giving up mid-season. I imagine that vast majority of the current attendance drop-off is casual fans. And that's to be expected from Sox fans when the team has failed to live up to expectations for the past few years. If Kenny decides to deal somebody like Quentin or Danks right now, he's effectively cutting the legs off of a team that has a very legit chance at a division title. Prematurely shutting the window of opportunity on this team would send a bad message to the current season ticket-holders, reminding them of the unprofessionally-run organization that wasn't serious about winning back in the '90s.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 10:51 PM) I don't expect Viciedo to necessarily light the world on fire, but I do expect him to be good, and I do expect him to drive in some runs. I'll put it this way: if the Sox don't trade Q, I won't be pissed about it. If the Sox do trade Q, and they pick up a couple (or 3) very good-looking young players, and at least one of them is going to contribute right now in addition to Viciedo, then I won't be pissed about it. If the Sox trade Q and get back a future #4 starter and a couple toolsy projects with an ETA of 2014 then I will be f***ing irate. I can agree with some of that. And I'll add this: If the Sox get ridiculously lucky and are able to trade Rios for productive veteran talent, I won't be pissed about it.

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 10:22 PM) What do these years have to do with the trade itself? Sorry, I accidentally extrapolated back to the Strike. My point was that the WF Trade reinforced negative feelings from Sox fans that were still simmering from August of 1994 and further suppressed ticket sales. Your argument is that attendance "recovered" two years after the WF Trade. I see it more as going from a depression (bottom of the league ticket sales) to a prolonged recession (bottom third of the league ticket sales). Sox attendance from 2000-2004 was overwhelmingly mediocre. The Sox didn't recover from this malaise until they won a WS, which is about a once-in-a-generation event for this franchise.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 10:23 PM) I really don't think trading Quentin is giving up though. If I thought that and wanted to see us give up, I would be advocating trading John Danks, since his value is greater than CQ, or Floyd, whose value is also greater than CQ. I want to win this year, but I also would make a deal where we get significant pieces back for Q while bringing up Viciedo. I just don't agree with this. Quentin is 1/2 of our productive offensive players right now and dealing him would severely hurt this team's chances of winning the division. Take CQ out of the lineup and Paulie will be pitched around 2-3 times per game. Even if Viciedo has recovered from his injury, expecting him to put up an .860 OPS down the stretch is wishful thinking. And I am very high on Dayan over the long run. He's just not a proven commodity at this point. Isn't Quentin still under team control in 2012? Why not just deal him in December? Sure, you'll get less in return, but you won't have to tank you playoff chances this year. I completely agree with this, and this is why I was pissed about the Jackson trade. In addition to being a very solid back-of-the-rotation guy, he was a great insurance policy.

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 10:06 PM) The Sox recovered from the White Flag trade in 2 years according to your numbers. They didn't really "recover," given what attendance was like from '91-'94. It was more like a prolonged recession of below-average ticket sales. Attendance was stuck in the 1.7-1.9M range from 1998 until they won the WS. Good luck competing with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels, who all draw roughly a million more per year, with below-average attendance. Threatening to move to Florida and backing out of that was nothing in comparison to '94 and '97.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 10:04 PM) Season ticket holders are the hardcore fans and they definitely respond most favorably to winning, but the post-White Flag era days occurred, all across the game, were very different than now, and there was no interleague play, no crosstown classic, no WS championship to remember, etc. Interleague Play began in 1997. "A couple of bad trades" is a hell of a lot different than "completely giving up on a competitive team." If you don't want to take my word for it, ask some of the 30+ crowd here about the fan reaction to the White Flag Trade.

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 09:52 PM) Honestly, I think it's a lot simpler than you are making it. Win, and they will come. Lose, and they won't. I feel like under the conditions of preying on desperate teams the Sox can begin winning sooner, and, therefore, get the fans to come out sooner. In your numbers above, the Sox completely recovered from the white flag trade once they began winning again. It took a World Series win for the Sox to fully recover from the Strike and White Flag trade. They were drawing over 2M per year from 1991-1993 (and were on pace to draw that before the '94 strike) and didn't see that level of fan support again until 2005. Unless you can guarantee another ring in the next five years, quitting on this year's team is a pretty bad idea. I never said that they became Cubs fans, but Sox fans were *pissed* in 1994 and 1997 and expressed this anger with their wallets en masse.

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 09:29 PM) Fair point I suppose, despite the condescension. How similar is the pre-2005 fan base to the current, though? I'd imagine that there are a heck of a lot more season ticket-holders now than between 1995-2004... 1995: 1.6M 1996: 1.7M 1997: 1.9M 1998: 1.4M (White Flag Trade) 1999: 1.3M 2000: 1.9M (made the playoffs) 2001: 1.8M 2002: 1.7M 2003: 1.9M 2004: 1.9M 2005: 2.3M (WS) 2006-2010: 2.2-3.0M Season ticket-holders are key to being able to sign high-tier free agents and to acquire players with big contracts at the trade deadline. There's no way that Kenny could've made some of the moves that he's done over the past 5 years with the 1995-1999 revenues.

QUOTE (103 mph screwball @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 09:27 PM) I think Sox fans are smarter than that. Keeping this same team is NOT trying to win in my opinion. It was just a few weeks ago that Viciedo was the talk of the town. It is not like they are trading Paully, Mark, or even AJ. It's a lateral move that saves money and builds for the future. No legs being cut off here. If the Sox dump payroll back to 58 million then we have big problems. If they retool and come back next year with more talent and a payroll of 110+, I will be excited again. On the other hand, keeping this same team gives them a much better chance of winning *right now* than trading productive vets for prospects and mediocre, non-impact veterans. Given that Kenny probably doesn't have the financial flexibility to do anything at this point, I'd just stand pat if I were him. Give these guys the chance to sink or swim. History shows that many of them (Dunn, Peavy, Rios, etc.) will eventually swim. If the Sox don't make the playoffs this year, I doubt that they'll be sporting a $110M payroll next year. It won't go down to $58M or anything like that but payroll will be significantly less, with Buehrle, Danks, Quentin, Pierre, and possibly Floyd off the books. I foresee next year being more of a classical rebuilding year than a retooling year. You can't retool on the fly indefinitely.

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 09:25 PM) The question then becomes, does trading Quentin for an absolutely amazing package constitute as pulling the plug? If it's not a veteran bat, then yes. Remember that Quentin is only one of two productive hitters in the lineup right now. If you don't replace him with an .800 OPS hitter, it's an immediate step backward.

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 09:23 PM) I hope you don't plan on winning any time in the next few years then. I'm sure the fans would react positively to that, though. You need to brush up on Sox history, little buddy.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 09:21 PM) You make a fair point. I understand the fans anger with the team this year, but there are consequences when a team with a payroll this high isn't drawing. They drew 28,000 on Tuesday and just under 27,000 on Wednesday, so he wasn't that far off.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 09:07 PM) BS. He can still trade Quentin and Thornton and Danks and Floyd in the offseason. For the record, I'm all for major rebuilding IN THE OFF-SEASON if the Sox fail to make the playoffs this year. Just don't cut the legs out from a team that has a legit shot of winning the division this season.

The Sox are in the unfortunate position of not being able to pack the house without a good team on the field. So it's ABSOLUTELY IMPERATIVE that they give the impression that they're TRYING to win. And this is exactly what they've done over the past five years. They haven't won a playoff series since 2005 and they haven't had a playoff appearance since 2008, but they've still drawn over 2 million each year because they've put quality players on the field. Even though the playoff appearances/victories aren't there, the fans understand that they're trying to win. They respect that and they buy tickets. What fans will NOT respect is the front office cutting the legs off of a team that has a legit shot of winning the division. This would be the THIRD TIME in just 17 years, and the fallout would destroy season ticket sales and inhibit their ability to compete with the big-spending teams down the road.

Some of you need to go back and look at the attendance figures after the White Flag Trade. If the Sox pull that crap again, it'll be even worse. It's difficult to rebuild a winning franchise when there is no gate, parking, or concessions revenue coming in.

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 08:42 PM) What don't you understand about not making money? So, the Sox are going to make money when they quit mid-season, piss off the fan base again, and draw 12,000 per game for the next couple of years? Or were you not paying attention in 1998 and 1999?

QUOTE (gatnom @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 08:39 PM) The problem is that it was stated at the beginning of this season that if the White Sox didn't win to create a big interest in the fan base, they would have a hard time being a profitable organization. They'll have an even more difficult time being a profitable organization when they throw the 2011 season and they're draw 12,000 fans per game for the next three years. "Rebuilding on the fly" is fine from November through March. You don't do it mid-season when you have a very legit shot at a division title.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 08:31 PM) If Kenny had 6 starters, 1 of which was walking at the end of the year, and the option to dump a bad contract and get a reliever to help this year and a former high round SP too I think he'd do it. What don't you guys understand about playing to win? When you've invested almost $130M in a team, you're only 3 games out with two full months left to play, and the rest of the division sucks, you don't put your tail between your legs and quit on the season because a few of your big-money players have been underachieving so far.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 08:08 PM) Like the last couple years when we were in the same position and collapsed in August/September? Was Kenny selling veteran starters for middle relievers and prospects back then? QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 28, 2011 -> 08:09 PM) The team they were behind 14 years ago was a far better team than the teams they are behind now. Trading your best players now and loading up on Matt LaPorta's and Jeff Marquezes would be a disaster. This is true, although the '97 Indians weren't really all that great in the regular season either. Their rotation was bad (gave up 815 runs) and was anchored by injury-prone dinosaurs like Orel Herscheiser and Charlie Nagy. They caught lightning in a bottle with Jaret Wright and Chad Ogea in the playoffs and came within one inning of winning the WS. Just goes to show that you don't need a bulletproof team to win in the playoffs.

Those of you who are pining for a firesale-for-prospects while 3 games out in late July have poor memories.