michelangelosmonkey

See it's this kind of brilliant analysis that I come here for...the Houston Astros the 10 years after they lost the WS to the White Sox lost an average of 95 games. HORRIBLE organization....everyone there is an idiot. There is no hope for the future. I am stupid. I think it is fitting that the last words I hear on Sox Talk as I cancel my account is "Get Fucked" by the Global Moderator.

What do you mean we put "no effort into adding players"? We are still drafting players and making interesting international signings. And the Astros have "passed us by"???? The same Astros we've been chasing? The Phillies were a year ahead of us in the rebuild and started fire hosing money at free agents in 2019 and went....4th at 500, 3rd under .500, 2nd at .500, 3rd at 12 games up (and WS) and are under .500 again. Imagine the hatred on Phillies Talk about their wasted time. And the Orioles and Rangers have had a nice 49 games. The enormous patience and respect Soxtalk has for every other organization and the hatred of all things White Sox is so weird and exhausting.

This is another credo of Soxtalk...negativity on our own prospects. The idea that you KNEW Lenyn Sosa was going to be a bust based on history of the Sox busting at these positions is crazy. He put up a .900 OPS in Birmingham while 2 years younger than league average in half a season at that pitchers park, then he put up an .820 OPS in Charlotte in half a season at 4 years younger than average. You know which other middle infielder also put up a combined .880 OPS in AA/AAA spit at 22 and flailed in a few at bats in the majors? Marcus Semien. And we traded him away a year later for a bag of magic beans because "we know our middle infield prospects are never good" and then he's averaged a 4 WAR for the next 9 years. Sox should just bring Sosa up and play him at 2b and have everyone shut up.

I did a look at attendance a few years back when I was arguing that JR wasn't cheap...seems like Sox core attendance is around 18,000...you get 18,000 to Comiskey Park to watch a paddle ball game on a nice summer day. If the fans think they are good...that jumps to 24,000 and if really excited to 30,000. Post WS is 36,000. So if a fan is worth $100 the core income from attendance is $144 million, an ok team is $192 mill, a great team $240 mill and WS $288. I argued that JR is not an idiot, he's a businessman and he understands that the Sox can't count on idiot frat boys turning out on day games to get drunk no matter the product. Cubs base looks to be more like 28-30,000. So if you make payroll through tickets you don't spend when the team is bad but hit the accelerator when they are good. I predicted the payroll would jump to $190 in the window to laughs of derision. And then it did ( top 10 payroll every time they are good for the last four decades). But it's also clear that the next jump was put on hold...partly because JR lost two nearly full years of attendance because of COVID but also because the super exciting team (remember this dirge is only a year old) attendance only jumped to 24,000. Now it is back down to the core at 17,000...of course its early and a hot streak now could lead to big crowds in the meaty months. Still its why the team should probably get moved out to the western suburbs where they can guarantee a much higher base. The team's future is not turned on a 7th starter or a backup 2b. They need to built up potential star core to produce...which will bring the crowds...which will bring the budget. To me the situation feels like COVID + injuries has hurt us more than any team. Black Sox curse.

Robert has played 98% of the games this year. TA had a five year run of being available 90+% of the time. Eloy is a clumsy kid but appendix is random. Moncada...ok he's an orchid. You can't count on good luck but you shouldn't rely on bad luck either.

I don't like the narrative for 2023 that they didn't fill the holes at 2b and RF. They did with two of their hottest prospects...Colas and Sosa. It wasn't idiotic to roll them out there, have them bat 8th and 9th and grow up in the majors...but then Moncada got hurt, and TA got hurt and Eloy and we were back to 2023...where you have 4 hitters trying to support the offense and the team couldn't be patient. I'm also not sure what the alternative was. Conforto at 2-$36? Probably would have been a reasonable gamble as it was short term...but obviously risky or he would have gotten more than that. Who at second base was more than just another Josh Harrison? Elvus seems like a fine back up. Yes we will see how it rolls out...it was suboptimal to start off the season with the hardest schedule in baseball (by a wide margin when I looked at it a few weeks ago), the surprise loss of your ace reliever, injuries and a rookie manager. They walked to the center of the ring...got punched in the nose, fell to the mat, crawled to the corner but made it to the bell. Now its the next round. This was never hopeless. The Tigers and Royals are hopeless because they don't have the talent. If we struggle to the trade deadline...sure...begin the rebuild around Robert, Cease and Kopeck. Trade everyone over 30. I just don't think it will be necessary and we will have the cash to trade for a nice part.

Sorry you missed my point. The poster had said that the White Sox injury narrative was "proven" to be untrue. The proof generally runs something like "average games lost by starter per team" and there is some nonsense that the White Sox have been healthy. Using the same "analysis" having Angels 100% healthy outside of losing Trout and Ohtani would still leave them statistically as an above average healthy team. It MATTERS who you lose and when. The White Sox had a core of young players--Moncada, Robert, Jimenez, Vaughn that you needed to learn to play together every day and I think there's been about five games in two years that all four have been out there. Add to that two of your established stars...TA and Grandal have missed more than half the games in the last year. Its hard to get rhythm when everyone is always hurt...and there is a psychological element to teams winning. You think there isn't a darkness that surrounds the team when poor old Eloy has his appendix burst? First for him but then the "what will happen next" hopelessness. As for "not even losing all stars". Robert is 4th in FWar this year...you think having him miss half of last year didn't hurt? Eloy with 45 homers in his first 700 at bats by age 23 and his injuries haven't hurt? Moncada and his 5 WAR and 4 WAR seasons surrounded by injured seasons hasn't hurt the White Sox growth?

So if the Angels have everyone healthy all year long and they only loose Ohtani and Trout for the season they are historically healthy? I don't care what sort of nonsense "proof" you have or how healthy the backups are...the Sox have had terrible injury luck. Yes the starting pitchers have been luckier and still if you assume a full season is 32 starts the core 4 lost 20 starts last year. That is losing one of your best pitchers for 2/3rds of the year. Grandal, TA, Jimenez, Robert and Moncada, the very core of your team, lost 340 games. That is equal to losing two star players for the full season. If you want to run out stats that say how historically healthy AJ Pollock was, or how Adam Engel and Josh Harrison were there to answer the call everyday. You have your truth, I have mine. Just don't pretend that your truth is somehow science.

Yes...it's been frustrating...but still a top 11 payroll and $190 mill spent...and like I said...all of the top 4 payrolls in MLB are at or further behind their division leads than the Sox. I think the idea that the Sox aren't trying or are stupid is one view, the other is they accumulated a lot of talent and then they've just run into incredibly bad injury luck the last 18 months...Seem to remember they had a 10 year run of good injury luck. Sometimes life is random. The idea of burning it all down seems so pessimistic. As for the home runs...seems like Comiskey park used to be one of the most cavernous parks in baseball.

This is precisely why I rarely engage here anymore. The primary dozen posters on Soxtalk are White Sox haters or trolls. Anyone that tries to find a fun narrative is hunted by the mob. I write a commentary about things being darkest before the dawn with a bunch of reasons why things got ridiculously bad (that first forty game schedule was unbelievable especially for a new manager) and why they could turn around and your response back is 1) personal insult, 2) Personal insult, 3) personal insult, 4) made up argument that makes me sound ridiculous though I never said anything like that 5) tired old story about something that happened 30 years ago that could be viewed negatively. Hey, all of you, enjoy your hatred. Abandon all hope yea who enter Soxtalk.

Soxtalk is reaching maximum crazy. Two playoff seasons followed by a devastating injury year that still ended up .500 and now a slow start which was a combination of new manager, key injuries and the hardest schedule in baseball the first 40 games....and we are writing the obituary?? If we had only spent money like top four spenders, the Mets (.500 and 4.5 games out), Yankees (3rd place 5 games out), Padres (under .500 and 8 games back) or Phillies (under .500 and 7 games back)? Where did it all go wrong as we stand hopelessly...checking...checking...5.5 games out of first after 50 games....with the easiest schedule the rest of the way? Do we put the 25 year old Andrew Vaughn in the same dumpster as the 26 year old, often appendix victim, Jiminez? Jake Burgers feel good story is now over because he's had a couple of bad games? Tim Anderson's 3000 career .750 OPS is an illusion and his last 85 post injury OPS of .471 is the new normal. Colas and Sosa are now AAAA players because of 80 bad, cold weather, at bats against the five best teams in baseball? Kopech has no future. Lynn is toast. Cease was a fluke. We have no relief pitchers. Yet we are less than 14 months removed from many BB writers in the country saying we had the second best MLB talent...and yes since then the luck has all been bad. But baseball is a marathon and luck changes. We still have starters, relievers and 7 position players that at their best in the last three years have been all star levels. This year the Sox are like a Porsche with a flat tire...it looks great in the driveway but on the road its ugly to watch. But the tires getting fixed. The weathers warming up. Jiminez is coming back, Crochet is back, the four top starters all looked great and went 4-0 in their last four starts. Robert is turning into the superstar we thought. Anderson will burn up the league in June. Vaughn is so close. Burger will continue to be a nice surprise. The bullpen is rounding into shape and It would not be crazy at all to see the sox go 40-20 the next 60 and be 5 games up at the 110 game mark. Then Liam regains his form and becomes the rallying cry for the team...Colas and Sosa unleash their talent. The first six weeks of the season was gut wrenching for all of us...but this happens in baseball. Let's let it play out into the summer. I think this is going to become a really fun team.

Anyone know anything about Elko for the Cannon Ballers? He's old for the league but he put up a 1000 OPS in the SEC and now has 8 home runs and 6 doubles in his first 100 at bats. Not on top 30 prospect list...but his SO rate has dropped this year and his walk rate is way up. Sleeper?? Also fun to see Baldwin off to a good start...near .400 OBP with 6 stolen bases in 17 games. Winston Salem at 19-7, the Kannapolis over .500...a little bit of hope for the future??

The Sox team of the 90's..Thomas, Durham, Robin, Ordonez, Ozzie all went through many years of 150 games played...most great players I've ever followed have 5 of 6 years with great health. To call Robert, TA, Grandall and Moncada weak is just ridiculous. Sometimes bad luck happens. Phillies spent a jillion $'s on free agents then for a three year period 19-20-21 they were sub .500 team and last year went to the World Series. This Soxtalk negativity is exhausting.

Your right...no player ever improves their strike out rates from their second season in the minors. I mean sure Robert had over 25% milb strike out rate that dropped to 19% last year in the majors. And every year there are dozens of players that dramatically improve their SO rate. https://www.rotoballer.com/top-strikeout-rate-improvements-for-hitters/987995. But yes...canon arm, super fast, good defender, plus plus raw power...strikes out a lot...put a fork in him. You seem to be on such a crusade for negativity that you lack objectivity. Good luck with that. So much fun to look into the future and predict doom.

OK that's fair about the Braves...like I said I didn't do an extensive study on playoff teams...just looked at at bats as sorted by OPS. But I've also followed baseball for a long time and losing five of your best hitters for half a season was unusual last year. Many teams don't lose any of their guys for half a season. The White Sox will have another terrible year if our core five have less than 2000 at bats. Is that framed properly for you?

Of course you are right...someone posted the FG article on top prospect bust rate and it was eye opening. So if you throw Outman, Cespedes and Colas in the outfield maybe one of them becomes really good...maybe none? The larger point is how important is your fifth outfielder. Look at 2005 WS team. Jermaine Dye was your second most games played in the outfield and he was Eloy level defense. Timo Perez was your primary 4th outfielder and 34 year old Carl Everett was 5th...and that team won the WS. As for your second base comments...Romy, Sosa and Popeye...you said take a chance on the young guys...Romy put up an .800 OPS across 1200 career minor league at bats and he is by far the worst of the three prospects. Yes it's a chance playing them but so is signing 30 year old Adam Frazier to $8 mill after .612 OPS season last year. For a long window and a budget limited to $190 Mill...we need to keep getting value from young guys..

Sorry...2500 at bats for Yankees. .. was looking at PA. But the POINT (not misleading) is that TA, Yoan, Robert, Eloy and Grandal were meant to be the core of a powerful offenses and they all had less than 400 at bats. I chose three teams that were big winners and they all had their key players have more than 500 at bats. The Braves in 21 had four of their top 5 OPS guys with an average of 600 at bats. Teams good players sometimes are healthy. Last year Leury had more at bats than Eloy, Pollock more than Moncada, Harrison more than TA. If we can replace bad hitters with good over 500-1000 at bats I think it moves the needle....but you are welcome to your negativity.

He has great baseball bloodlines. He was thought of as MLB.com's #1 International prospect when he signed 2 years ago right now. He was "considered a five-tool player with above-average tools across the board". He had been out baseball basically for two years . Came to US in 2021 and in his first taste in the US, after two years of sitting out he put up a combined .800 OPS across High A and Birmingham. Last year in the always tough park for hitters Birmingham in 500 at bats he put up a .770 OPS and stole 33 bases at 75% success rate. This year he's going to hitter friendly Charlotte. I think if he plays a full year in Charlotte he will be a 30/30 guy. Yes his strike out rate is concerning but Aaron Judge strikes out 30% of the time. A lot of guys do. I know it's an unpopular position to be positive on Soxtalk but...why wouldn't he take a big step forward? He's just turned 25. He's Cuban. Sox destiny is to have an outfield of Cespedes/Robert/Colas for five years.

A self loathing Sox fan...how rare and intriguing. Thanks for your incite

I think they will thrive. I think Robert is going to have a full year, 150 games, like he did in 2021. I think Colas will be great. Beni is very steady. Cespedes will take two steps forward in AAA this year. They've had very bad luck with injuries for two years in a row...they are due for better luck.

One year ago that is what we all thought was our future. That's pretty much what 2021 Astros did (145 games and 3000 at bats from their top 5 OPS guys, 2022 also 3000 at bats. Yankees and Dodgers also over 3000 at bats from their top 5). White Sox got under 2000 at bats from their core five. Replacing .650 OPS with .850 OPS over extra 1000 at bats fixes our offense no matter what the rookies at 2b and RF do.

Yes the problems are clear. We need health luck. I'm not ready to call a 24 year old broken at this point. They need their core five (Vaughn, TA, Moncada, Robert and Eloy) to each play 150 games and play as they did when they were at their best. If those 5 can be .850 OPS combined over 2500 at bats the offense will be fine.

The problem is that you have to trade pieces to get someone like Outman. And while Jimenez was not a good defensive outfielder...if he had to play 15 or 20 games out there we would survive. Same with Sheets. Victor Reyes has 1000 MLB at bats of at least Luery quality. Billy Hamilton in the minors. Mieses is young but had a pretty good year in Birmingham last year. I'm not sure other teams have some great fourth and fifth outfielder...it is unlikely to be the thing that sinks the White Sox in 2023

I agree that Cespedes isn't ready yet...but I also think closer than people give him credit for. He's got a canon of an arm, is fast and has raw power...after signing Benintendi, having an outfield of Colas, Beni and Robert is exciting. Outman right now is way ahead of Cespedes...but will he be in July? And what would you have to give up to get him? If you brought up Cespedes he would immediately give you a plus defender, ++ arm, ++ speed and power. Maybe Adam Engel with upside? It's a crucial year for Cespedes so losing a key asset to get Outman feels like you are giving up on Cespedes and not any more likely to succeed.