Buehrlesque

Here's a purely hypothetical (at this point anyway) situation: Rockies star 3B Nolan Arenado declares that he is unhappy in Colorado and wants to be traded. The Rockies choose to honor his request and, once a trade is agreed upon, grant his new team a 48-hour window to negotiate an extension. They are sure to be inundated with offers, so the winning bid would have to be pretty impressive. For the White Sox, the option of waiting him out until free agency after 2019 is now off the table, because whichever team acquires him will immediately lock him up long term. Your choice is either trade for him now, or never acquire him. As White Sox GM, would you offer Yoan Moncada for Arenado? It's a high price to pay (there might be minor complementary pieces included as well, but none as significant as Moncada), but if you pull the trigger, it would give you an eventual infield of Arenado-Anderson-Madrigal, which would be darn good offensively and pretty much elite defensively. If you don't make this trade, you either move one of Moncada/Anderson/Madrigal off of MI, go all in on Manny Machado, settle for lesser piece like Donaldson/Moustakas, etc., or wait it out and hope someone like Burger/Forbes/Curbelo/Sosa pans out. Let's assume the Rockies are amenable to this deal, and that the Sox could in fact work out an extension with Arenado (it's not a sure thing, but it's a different question than the point of this thread). Would you make the trade?

I'm going to go really deep on you guys... Rangel Ravelo I always defended him and really thought he was going to be a big league hitter, lack of power be damned!

This is starting to become conventional wisdom, but I don't think it's that iron-clad. There's this perception out there that when you are rebuilding, you shouldn't sign any FA. If there's a good player available and you like him and his price is fair, get him. It's part of building your team. There are factors to consider (losing a draft pick to sign a player with a QO, signing someone over 35, overlapping someone on the major league roster), but there's also a risk of being too cute and passing on a fair deal for a good player to be left with worse options the following year. Harper and Machado are pipedreams, and that's fine. But guys like Pollock, Corbin, Richards, Donaldson and Keuchel could all make varying degrees of sense for the Sox in the right situation. Unless the Sox are so zeroed in on a guy like Arenado, Rendon or Goldschmidt in the following year's class, I hop the Sox walk away with something this winter. (That said, if the price tag on any of those guys exceeds what value you think they'd bring, then it's an easy pass.)

Hey @Chisoxfn, I don't post often in the NBA thread but I do follow it sometimes and I just wanted to thank you for continuing to fight the good fight in not simply accepting the conventional tanking/"NBA hell" cliche!

This all looks really good, and it's exciting to see so much talent moving up. The one name I would add to this is Ryan Cordell. Isn't he due to come back at some point? He'll need regular PT at Charlotte. Also, it would be nice to have regular ABs for all five of the guys you have listed as OFs at Birmingham. To make that happen, either Zavala or Collins would need to get promoted to Charlotte to open the DH spot, or Polo or FIsher could get promoted to Charlotte (not sure they've earned it yet), or maybe Fisher gets some time at 1B at Basto's expense. Lastly, is Corey Zangari around anymore?

People need to star this post and reread it every day leading up to next year's draft!

Me. I despise the idea of taking a catcher in the first round. I understand the counter arguments about scarcity, etc., but my philosophy is exactly the same as yours.

Tampa Bay too. This is key. Without comp or competitive balance picks, going underslot early doesn't make that much sense, and it would have been a blunder for the Sox. So so happy they went with Madrigal.

I want Madrigal, and I think the Sox want Singer. My prediction is that the Phillies take one of Madrigal or Singer at 3, and the Sox take whichever is left at 4.

Yes, absolutely. I don't think you should wait until you are "ready" to compete to start a player's clock. If you're ready to compete, your main contributors should already have major league experience. That's what makes you ready to compete.

I would also rather have them for 2026. And 2027. Where do you draw the line? I can understand why people draw the line in different spots, but for me, setting the stage in 2019 and 2020 are more important than what may or may not happen in 2025. Having something to work on doesn't mean you have to stay in the minors. Tim Anderson is two years in as a major leaguer and has a lot to work on. He's not going to AAA to work on his fielding. Moncada does too. Lopez, same thing. None of those guys are finished products, but they all are major league ready. Kopech will be in the same boat before the end of 2018, if he's not already.

Right, the idea he should be up merely to throw a bone to fans is obviously just a sports radio meatball take. I doubt anyone anywhere takes that seriously. But there are posters in this thread who voted to wait until 2019. That is nuts.

Keeping Eloy (and Kopech) in the minors until May 2019 is missing the forest for the trees. When a player is ready, he should begin getting tested in the majors. Both because he's earned it, and it is best for the team long-term. The White Sox will be better in 2019 and 2020 if these guys begin orienting themselves in 2018. (And believe it or not, with Eloy, Kopech, Rodon, Burdi and a significant free agent or two, the Sox will more seriously and credibly attempt to compete in '19.) I understand keeping a player down for a few weeks to gain an extra year, and even avoiding Super Two status when it's possible. But leaving these guys in the minors for an entire calendar year is the move more likely to backfire — not bringing them up to begin getting their footing and acclimating with the future teammates and the big league environment it is artificial. Both players will be ready this year. It would be artificial and damaging to deny that.

No, you're not. I'll be very disappointed if the Sox take him at number 4.

QUOTE (flavum @ Aug 29, 2017 -> 12:30 PM) If that's the case, then I also change my mind on Jimenez. They may get these guys to Chicago faster as long as they feel they can handle the inevitable ups and downs. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 29, 2017 -> 01:13 PM) Anyone else get the impression the Sox might want to not tank next year ? I read a lot of Sox stuff and that's the impression I am getting. Yes. That's what I've thought all along, the Sox do not seem likely to tank in 2018, and they aim to compete in 2019. I don't think Kopech will break camp with the big league club, that's ridiculous, but I do think both he and Eloy will be up next year (and for good) before September.

QUOTE (Sockin @ Aug 29, 2017 -> 02:06 PM) Sox players going: Pitchers: Dylan Covey, Jace Fry, Matt Foster, Connor Walsh Catchers: Seby Zavala Infielders: Danny Mendick Outfielders: Tito Polo http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/afl/club.jsp?team_id=454 Personally, I like it. I don't think the Sox' top tier guys need the AFL time as much as these bubble and/or injury guys do.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Aug 11, 2017 -> 02:47 PM) Super quality thinking post here Mr Buehrle. Maybe overall talent under 25 yrs old? Overall talent under 1000 ABs? Yeah! Something like either of those would work. Or something that gives less weight to a recently graduated prospect, so he still factors into the ranking but not as heavily as players in the minors. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 11, 2017 -> 03:28 PM) Prospects are quite literally defined by rookie status. If you don't have rookie status anymore, you aren't a prospect anymore. When comparing for the #1 system, losing the #1 prospect to the majors can effect that status. I just don't like the binary nature of today you are a "prospect" but after your next at bat tomorrow you are not. In the end, it's all just meaningless labels I guess.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 11, 2017 -> 01:40 PM) FWIW, Moncada should be graduating just about any day now. Not a big deal, but does it irk anyone else that the day a prospect "graduates," they are worth zero in these kinds of rankings? I get that they have become major leaguers, and that lists like this are just a snapshot in time, but I would love some kind of system that uses weights of some kind so players could still factor in in some form. It's not like a guy like Moncada is a prospect with X major league at bats and not a prospect with X+1 major league at bats. It'd be cool if there was room for scale or gradient.

I get that power is important for a likely corner OF, but with all the power of Jimenez, Moncada, Burger and Sheets, et. al. in the system, I would rather Rutheford turn into a high average/OBP guy with middling power than a low average/OBP guy with a significant amount of homeruns. Basically, I hope his power develops, but I also hope he doesn't "sell out" his approach for dingers.

I've always been a part of the (somewhat small) Jake Peter fan club, but he's obviously blocked at 2B. Does anybody know anything about his glove at SS? I would think if he was good enough, he'd already be playing there regularly. He's been playing 2B exclusively, but could he be a capable SS or utility guy?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 27, 2017 -> 02:12 PM) If you aren't able to win 90 games, you really aren't competing. An 83 win team isn't competitive in my eyes. That is an average team. Realistically we would need a ton to go right to be able to see even that .500ish team by 2019. Even the Cubs weren't above .500 until the fourth season after hitting bottom. That would put us at 2020 or even 2021 if next year is worse than this year. The Cubs not only burnt the ground down, but they were also going out and signing free agents during that span to start to build the roster. At this stage the White Sox are still burning down the house. 2018 is going to be a terrible team. IMO even with the prospects coming in, it is going to be closer to 2003 Tigers than .500. These kids will need time. I get the prospect sheets look great now, but I think a lot of people are WAY too optimistic in their hopes for these kids as a whole, and have to realize that a lot of prospect flat out fail, and for every Kris Bryant that hits from his first day in the majors, there are a lot more guys like Avi Garcia and Kyle Shwarber who spend seasons struggling as well as guys like Tim Anderson whose development is up and down. Already this year we have seen steps back from guys like Giolito, Fulmer, Anderson, and Collins. This could be blips in the road, or it could be the tip of the iceberg for them. It is a statistical certainty that some will bust. Who and how many? Well that is the fun part. I agree with more of what you say here, except a team the ends up with 83 wins is competing, and I think the Sox can do that by 2019. (Not saying they will, but they can.) That's not the ceiling of the organization's plans, like it was for most of the past decade, which is a welcome change. They will theoretically and hopefully only get better as a team on the rise. I think, by 2019, it will be more fun than people think.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 27, 2017 -> 01:21 PM) Unless you believe that almost all of these kids are going to come up in 2018 and 2019 and all have instant success, there is zero chance of these team being good in the next two years. You have to understand that a percentage of these kids will flat out flop, as well as having others who take the Avi Garcia route of needing 2-3 years to realize their potential. Especially since a large portion of these talent is currently in the low minor leagues with 2017 being a month from being over in the minors. I think the tide is going to turn significantly faster than you do. But in any event, there is simply no defending the statement "this team has no chance at competing until next decade." That is categorically false. This team absolutely has a non-zero chance to compete. "Competing" does not equal "prohibitive Word Series favorites." Are they likely to win 90+ games in 2019? Probably not. But there is more than enough young talent making its way to Chicago by the end of next year to construct a slightly-above-.500 team if enough goes their way. And guess what, that constitutes competing in the two-Wildcard era. Obviously, the ultimate goal is a juggernaut team in the early '20s, but I don't know why you would 100% dismiss the idea that nothing will happen sooner. Sometimes I think people are so used to the "all-in/win-or-bust with patchwork veterans" Sox underacheiving and imploding that they don't realize how easy it is to be in a playoff race until late in the season these days, especially in the two-Wildcard era.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 27, 2017 -> 01:03 PM) If he hits like that, he still has AAA to go through. There is zero need to rush this kid, especially because this team has no chance at competing until next decade anyway. Why start his clock early? This is plain old untrue.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 27, 2017 -> 10:47 AM) The simple post is WHY? Look at our 2018 roster, and tell me why he needs to spend any time on it. That is going to be a mid 50's wins horrible team. With where he is now, let him finish in A ball, and start in Birmingham next year. He has already moved once to come to the Sox, no need to have him move again for a month in Birmingham. If he destroys Birmingham, bump him up to Charlotte after the All Star Break and let him finish there. The absolutely soonest we should look at him in Chicago is after the Super 2 deadline in 2019. There is no good reason with the roster construction we currently have to rush the guy up here. Zero. Well, time will tell. Things move fast for hitters like Jimenez. No point in arguing over it, but pin this thread and come back to it 13 months from now, and I think Jimenez will be getting ready to make his major league debut.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jul 27, 2017 -> 08:42 AM) I don't really agree with any of this. A lot will change in a year's time. If Jimenez dominates AA to end this year and start next year, he'll get to AAA sometime next summer. I'll be surprised if he's not a Sept. call up next year.