almagest

Hey if we had some Mets fans in here talking about how they won't trade anyone for Cease I'd go look at their prospects too

I think we're all just tired of having a roster full of first basemen, so anyone with "1B" risk in their profile is anathema.

All the O's fans here would say he's completely off limits 😆

Schultz is a potential top of the rotation left handed starter. Here's Baseball America's writeup, which has him #31:

You seem to be struggling with this. Let me try again - Ortiz is much less valuable to a team like the White Sox than he is to the Orioles or a team in their competitive window that's missing a SS because: He is turning 26 midway through next season and his MLB clock started. By the time the White Sox are getting competitive again he'll be like 29 and in his arb years. To add to that, the White Sox top prospect (who is ranked much higher than Ortiz) is a 22 year old SS, and he is likely coming up midway through this year. This means Ortiz shifts to 2B or 3B. 3B is currently blocked by Yoan Moncada and his giant salary. The White Sox are for sure playing him at 3B this year, hopefully recouping some trade value if he plays well. Ortiz shifts to 2B then, where he is far less valuable. Ortiz has a lower offensive ceiling and very real risk he will not hit in the majors, even given his recent offensive improvements. He is an excellent defender at a premium position, but that defense (and offensive profile) does not play nearly as well at 3B or 2B. He is not a headliner the White Sox should accept. He definitely has value as a second piece but the Orioles would probably be better off keeping him or trading him to someone who needs a SS in this case.

I think it's still way too early to say that, even though the results were way less than encouraging. We'll see what Gonzalez looks like in 2024.

I think he holds that value to a team who is closer to contention but has a need at SS. The Dodgers maybe? I know prospect for prospect trades aren't that common, but maybe someone like River Ryan + a guy outside their top 30 to get some immediate pitching help without trading away any other prospects.

Here we go with the "but but but we're not MLB GM's!" nonsense again. You are contributing nothing by saying this. You are just being annoying. That said, I can absolutely tell you that Ortiz would be blocking our top prospect's position and his value at 3B or 2B is not nearly as high as at SS. We also still need to pay/play Moncada, and then Ortiz is 27 when Moncada is gone. This isn't debating prospect positioning, this is clearly evident roster construction. Some other team would likely value him higher.

As of these 2023 rankings, sure. He likely wouldn't be once the 2024 lists come out. Gonzalez was drafted 15th, so yes he would probably be ranked higher still, unless Bradfield torched the minors after being drafted. You're also missing that we're not that interested in a guy who doesn't fit nearly as well here as other options due to age and position.

Man after reading about Basallo it sounds like he has a ton of potential but he's only 19 and he's got the dreaded "as his body fills out he might find himself at first base" attached to him. Still pretty incredible to be in the top 50 at 19 but man I would be super nervous about that profile as a headliner. He's got a TON of risk.

He'll be 26 midway through the 2024 season

I said 3-5 for Ortiz so I don't know what's so funny. We're right in the same range. Schultz is a FV 55 because he's younger and has more risk, but the upside is incredibly high. He's likely higher on the 2024 list than Ortiz - he's 31 on Baseball America's 2023 list. Gonzalez is a 2023 first round pick so he's probably ranked higher than Norby, Bradfield and Beavers by pedigree. Most Sox fans are bearish on him, though, as he really struggled at the plate. Those three you mentioned could slot in that 4-7 range, but everyone else that's been mentioned would not.

I haven't looked too deeply at their prospects so I can't say how I'd feel about them, but a 26 year old SS with hitting concerns whose clock has already started is just not a compelling primary piece for this org, and might also be beaten as a secondary piece, even from an org with prospects below him, because we have Montgomery poised to take over at SS this or next year. Blocking Ortiz or shifting him over to 3B where his hitting concerns would be even more apparent seems like a waste of Cease's value. We could also try Ortiz at 2B but that's a less premium defensive position and I don't know if it's worth wasting his glove there.

Which is why most of the Sox fan proposals here are looking at prospects ranked lower than Eloy's #12 as the headliner. Orioles have #14, #24, #27 & #46 on MLB's 2023 list.

Quintana was also in the midst of a pretty rough season when he was traded, and that was worth #12 and #77 on MLB's list.

Yes, this is all hypothetical. We have moved past that point. You're not making the point you think you are bringing this up constantly. Cowser + Ortiz + a mid top 30 org list guy is much more intriguing, I'll give you that. An Ortiz headliner is a non-starter, though. To your last point - I watched Dylan Cease all last year and saw how he looked more like a mid-rotation pitcher with inconsistent command and reduced fastball velocity, until he turned it around in September and looked like his 2022 form again. But I wouldn't expect you to know that.

After taking a look I completely agree. Ortiz probably slots in between 3-5, depending on how Quero's 2023 is viewed, and most of the other names mentioned are probably 9 or below on our top 30. That's some nice potential depth but depth on a prospect list isn't gonna move the needle. They also don't have anyone in the back half of the top 100 and that's concerning both for their depth and for a trade that doesn't include one of their top 5.

If I'm "trolling" by posting what White Sox fans expect from a Cease trade on a White Sox fan message board, then you're ABSOLUTELY trolling by coming here and telling us that you're not trading anyone in the top 40 overall prospects or in your team's top 5, and we should be content with a 26 year old glove first shortstop who sucked in a cup of coffee and some 45 FV pitchers who would be lucky to top out at Cease's floor. No thanks, we think we can likely get that or better elsewhere.

As soon as Leury started sucking the whole team dropped off the face of the planet. I think we have our smoking gun...

Yes, of course there are, which is why people aren't suggesting we go for a Chris Sale level package, which was WAY higher than the proposals we're asking about here.

Then there's nothing for you to talk about with us, because we're not trading two years of a cheap starter who's floor is a mid-rotation starter and ceiling is a Cy Young finalist for your lower tier prospects. The future value proposition just isn't worth it, because prospects have a ton of risk and this trade is too important to this team to fail.

To be fair, I'd say TA, Elvis and Grandal all lived up to their rankings, and Robert sure seems on track to be there too. Guys like Benintendi, Eloy and Moncada are in theory decent outcomes, even for top 3 prospects, and 100% Orioles fans will be PISSED if Holliday, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo and/or Basallo end up in this tier.

First, I don't think billionaires should pay any more taxes than they already do. Second, this is a bad analogy, because taxable wealth is REAL. Those dollars exist, right now. Prospect future value is THEORETICAL. You could trade Jackson Holliday and he could turn out to be a giant bust or just be decent, and don't say it won't happen because we have a team FULL of these guys. We're also not saying you're trading for peak Chris Sale here, but we're DEFINITELY saying the price is going to be higher than you seem to want to pay, especially when you're saying 4 of your top 5 prospects on mlb.com are off limits, and the main one you're hanging onto has 1B concerns in his scouting report.

The Orioles should sign him

I mean this is the whole point of what people here are trying to tell you. You're not headlining a deal for Cease with your third or lower tier of prospects (Assuming Holliday is tier 1 and Mayo is in tier 2 in this case). There needs to be a top tier talent in the package or it's not worth it for the Sox, because they can get that package or better elsewhere. We know how easy it is for these guys to bust out, and we know how important it is to load your team up with proven talent to be able to compete. You know Cease has a mid-rotation floor, and a top 5 Cy Young finisher ceiling. Every single one of your prospects can bust, or end up being just okay - we just lived through this. You also know that (in theory) the O's have a deep system with good player development, so you can absorb losing someone that hurts because you've got a pipeline to replace them, which the White Sox never had. If you trade Mayo (assuming he's as good as you think he is, which doesn't seem to be the consensus here) or someone in his tier, you'll still have an offense full of mashers and you'll drastically upgrade your pitching staff for a postseason run for two years, and put way less reliance on everything going exactly the way you need it to with young pitching. If you hang onto him, then the White Sox probably go elsewhere to make a trade, or they just hang onto him and see what happens at the deadline. It's not like it affects our draft position, because we're picking no better than 10th no matter what we do. Yeah it probably lessens the available talent available for Cease, but if the Sox aren't getting what they want and need now it doesn't really matter that much, because there's zero guarantee any of these guys are successful, and we might just be better off taking a high end talent and a flyer at the deadline or in the winter of 2024. And if you come back with "fine we won't get him the price is too high", then I hope you don't seriously regret it, like White Sox fans regret not signing Harper or Machado.