Chicago White Sox

I’ll be there Sunday with a couple buddies and my two sons. Have they released the schedule yet?

As someone who hasn’t followed the details of this horrific story too closely, what does any of this have to do with Izzo?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 24, 2018 -> 07:16 AM) If the White Sox "Aren't as deep as we'd like to think we are", that points to a much larger problem. There is a ton of 2nd tier talent in this organization: Cease, Collins, Rutherford, Burger, Adams, Adolfo, some of the other guys down in A-ball, the other catchers. I don't think all of these guys are going to have breakout years next year, but there's so much talent in that range that some of them should. If all of these guys flop, that's a sign of a much more serious issue - that we still haven't fixed either the player development or the player scouting issues that plagued us for the last decade. The best proxy for the strength of any given farm system is looking at how many 50+ FV prospects they have. How many of those do you think we have right now? If you exclude Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, & Fulmer, we have four guys remaining who met this criteria last year per Longenhagen: 1. Jimenez, 60 2. Kopech, 55 3. Rutherford, 55 4. Collins, 50 5. Burdi, 50 My guess is Rutherford & Burdi fall to 45's, which would leave just three holdovers. The question then becomes how many guys will join the list after 2017? Here are my guesses with predicted FVs: 1. Hansen, 55 2. Robert, 55 3. Dunning, 50 4. Burger, 50 Cease was a 45 last year and I don't see him making the jump. Sheets will probably be a 45. Same goes for Adolfo & Adams. So in summary that's only 7 50+ FV players. That's not horrible, but the deeper systems have closer to 10 from what I've seen. Again, this is simply a good proxy to measure the strength of the farm system. The fact we have two guys that should be in the 60 to 70 FV range (Eloy & Kopech) and a guy that could join them in a half season (Robert) needs to be taken into consideration. But the flip side of the coin is how many guys in our system have a legitimate change of becoming 50+ FV prospects by the end of next season? That's the real concern IMO as I'd only probably put it around five to seven (Rutherford, Cease, Sheets, Burdi, Adolfo, & maybe Basabe or Curbelo). If you look at other high-end systems, I bet you they have many more guys who could conceivably make that jump. Unfortunately, our system lacks the high-school & LatAm talents that can radically improve their future value in a year.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jan 23, 2018 -> 11:23 PM) Anyone with knowledge of the system can answer this. Would you say that the current group of position player prospects and their success or lack thereof would be an indicator to evaluate those who develop that talent ? I'm just curious with our lack of success in recent years with position player prospects and with changes made to the system if any one truly thinks the Sox have what it takes to develop these players or even draft well enough and recognize talent that basically just develops on its own. I think so yes. The last two drafts under Hostetler we’ve drafted “ball players” over athletes for the most part. Collins, Call, Fisher, Burger, Sheets, & Gonzalez all fall into that bucket IMO. Those guys should be much easier to develop than the Courtney Hawkins of the world who have serious issues with pitch recognition & plate discipline. That doesn’t mean they should eventually turn into stars or even major league regulars, but we should see productive seasons out of them as progress up the system. At this point it’s impossible to say if Getz and of the other any player development changes have made much of a difference thus far. While Call gets a free pass due to injury, Fisher played himself out of top 30 lists with a very disappointing season. Collins raised red flags with his bat to ball issues. And obviously it’s way to early to judge, but Burger & Sheets didn’t exactly demonstrate the plus power potential we’ve been hearing about. Next year will be huge though as the Sox have actively working with these guys during instructs & the off-season to fix issues. If Collins can come back in 2018 with the hitch even semi-corrected and Burger & Sheets show signs of lofting the ball more, I’ll start getting a little more optimistic that Getz may be driving some real change.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Jan 23, 2018 -> 09:49 PM) From Longenhagen's prospect chat today when asked about Collins and Rutherford: Only 45/50 raw power is really disappointing. It really looks like we're going to have to do some work on him for him to reach anywhere near his potential. If he is able to regain his old form, I think that also answers a lot of questions about our abilities to develop bats. Someone should ask Hahn about this at SoxFest. I was less concerned about his s***ty numbers when he came over, but the fact that Longenhagen has dropped his raw power score and publications are completely dropping him from their top 100 lists suggest real scouting concerns now. I’d really like to know Hahn’s reasons for optimism here, because it almost comes off like they went off pre-draft scouting reports and not the latest intel.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Jan 23, 2018 -> 11:04 PM) I'm actually slightly encouraged. He said the Braves wouldn't give up Acuna, so if the Nats also don't give up Robles, the prospect value is lower. I think people are down on Brinson because he struggled in the majors. The Brewers fan were more concerned about Monte Harrison and the insider said Josh Hader was untouchable. If Brinson isn't viewed as good and he is leading the package, maybe we could get by with an offer based around Rutherford + Cease ++ if we take back some contracts. Thats something that we have over the Braves, Brewers, and Nats, though not over the Padres probably. The problem is even if you’re down in on Brinson a bit, he’s still a top 40 to 50 prospect. Rutherford has seen his stock plummet and Cease has huge question marks. Those two combined are worth far less than Yelich IMO are not headlining a trade for Yelich. Still think we’d have to add Hansen with those other two to have any shot and I don’t think that would be wise for us. We’re simply not as deep as we’d like to think we are. Let’s hold the prospects for one more year, try to sign some free agents to fill holes first, and then consider a move like this once we have a better idea what we have/need.

I’ll keep repeating it, thanks but no thanks. If Acuna or Brinson is actually involved, then let’s end the discussion right now. Giving up that caliber of a prospect at this point in our rebuild (plus more) would be insanity. Marlins aren’t taking our secondary pieces for Yelich.

QUOTE (yesterday333 @ Jan 23, 2018 -> 11:33 AM) I got to see Curbelo play in a couple games at the beginning of last season before he got hurt. He was the best athlete on the field and its too bad he got hurt. I wonder if he will be assigned to Great Falls again this year. I really hope they push him to Kannapolis TBH.

QUOTE (kwill @ Jan 23, 2018 -> 11:20 AM) I don’t get the Casey Gillespie love. Agreed.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 11:17 AM) I'm going to guess 3 white sox. Eloy, Kopech, Hansen. I don’t even think Law would exclude Robert from his list, but you just never know with him.

So we’ll probably have the big 4 in this list. We had five in BA’s list. Callis hinted at six in his list. Honestly, it’s a bit concerning that we’re in year 2 of our rebuild and that’s all we got. And I’m fully aware we had three top 50 prospects graduate last year, but sucks to see Cease & Rutherford completely fall off these lists.

QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 09:51 AM) Hindsight is 20/20 but it’s not like we didn’t see this one coming. We gave up 3 productive ML’er (one of which had immense trade value) for a guy who was hyped as a Top 30 guy at that point. Some 200 ABs later he fell completely out of Top 100. Not saying he won’t bounce back inside T100 going forward, but I think it will be hard for him to sniff the top 30-40 status again. Return seemed light then, but even more so now. I think most of us felt this way when the trade was announced. I personally never understood the Rutherford hype (being a top 40 prospect), but was willing to give the Sox the benefit of the doubt. Obviously the early returns aren’t great on Blake, but 2018 will really tell us what we might have in him. I’m also disappointed that the second piece in the deal was Ian Clarkin. Not a huge fan of his despite the 1st round pedigree.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 09:33 AM) He probably has the same grade as before, other guys just got better and jumped him. I get that’s possible, but some of the guys ahead of him should of graduated as well.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 09:40 AM) I've been consistent so I'll say it again: Not a fan of these tweets from crasnick. Meaning you don’t think they’re realistic? He broke the Soria trade in the same manner.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 09:31 AM) I'm perusing one of the Brewers fan sites and a guy that they all see as a reliable insider just said this when asked for an update: The contract issues part makes it sound like maybe it is Ellsbury because the NTC. He also just said that Braun is not in the trade. Definitely points to a potential Ellsbury deal, obviously doesn’t mean we’re involved. Still can’t believe the Brewers would take on that kind of salary. Would think a team like us or the Phillies would have to be the ultimate landing place for Ellsbury.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 09:05 AM) The Sox would do this trade immediately and be instant winners. Bad deal for the Brewers. Even absorbing all of Ellsbury's contract would not get us three quality prospects like that. Yes, it’s definitely too heavy for the Sox. Here’s an adjusted proposal that I think is more fair: Brewers -Trade: Brinson, Diaz -Receive: Sanchez, Adams, Tate Yankees -Trade: Ellsbury, Adams, Tate -Receive: Low level C prospect White Sox -Trade: Sanchez, low level C prospect -Receive: Ellsbury, Brinson, Diaz

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 08:38 AM) I don't mind where Robert or Hansen are ranked. To me they are both guys that had such big questions about them that they ranked where they are right now while some of the questions still remain. For Hansen its whether he can keep the command he has found and not suddenly lose it like he did his Junior year. If he is able to go out in the first half and do what he did last year I can see him jumping up to the top 30 by midyear. For Robert, they just haven't seen him play in a game against competition here yet. To me his ranking is like how they rank guys who are just drafted where they basically just have to guess where they would be based on tools alone and no actual track record against real competition. Robert is a top 10 type talent, so if he goes out and dominates like we think he can, I don't think we'll have to worry about him being ranked low anymore. He could have an Acuna type of rise through the ranks. Robert was ranked 45th in their midseason list, so just kind of surprised he’d fall 13 spots.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 08:28 AM) Only 5? I thought they'd have 4 when I saw BA's top 10 list. Really happy to see Dunning there. I'm high on Collins and Burger so this is a positive. I guess I thought Collins might slip in near the end. I was pretty confident Dunning would make it based on their write-up. I’ll say this much, this list is making me think the talent accumulation phase of the rebuild is far from over. I’m sure guys like Burger, Collins, Rutherford, Cease, & maybe even Sheets all fall somewhere in the 101 to 150 range, but it makes me sick to my stomach seeing how many top prospects good teams like the Yankees & Astros still have or just recently gave up. We definitely need to acquire more depth between now and the trade deadline.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-...pfgzrHUro9iD.97 The Sox with only five top 100 prospects: 4. Jimenez 11. Kopech 57. Hansen 58. Robert 82. Dunning I’m actually shocked by how low Robert is ranked and somewhat surprised about Hansen.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 01:06 AM) Hahn only gets that deal done with Cashman and Stearn' families tied up for ransom. Let me ask you this. What is the value of taking on a player with $40M to $50M in negative surplus value? I know Fangraphs speculated a guy like Clint Frazier would be the appropriate cost to take on Ellsbury’s contract. To me that’s a theoretical cost based on a simple surplus value analysis and does not account for the premium another team would want to help the Yankees out. I’ll admit Andujar is probably too big of a second piece, but given that Chance Adams is a slightly worse prospect than Frazier IMO, I would expect the Yankees to include another prospect in their 10 to 20 range. The next question is why would the Yankees actually do this? What if they can use the Ellsbury savings to add a SP like Darvish while staying under the luxury tax threshold this coming season? Look, I’m skeptical too that the Yankees would trade talent to dump a contract, but the luxury tax concerns are a real issue for them and they want to be in the best financial position for the 2018/19 free agent class. There’s definitely some logic here, especially if Darvish comes at a bit of a discount.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Jan 22, 2018 -> 01:13 AM) My random speculation is a prospect swap of Brinson for Hansen + Fulmer. Or maybe Cease, Fulmer, and Mendick, or some variation of us getting Brinson in exchange for pitching prospects. Milwaukee is looking for a SP & 2B that can help them right now. That’s why someone like Chance Adams might be of interest to them. I think Fulmer is simply too risky at the moment after his minor league struggles last year. And Carlos Sanchez makes a ton of sense for them at 2B. Cheap, versatile, and under control for four more seasons. He’s a perfect transition to Hiura and can shifter over to 3B/SS once he’s ready. Also, filling two big needs with very affordable options allows them to go buy a free agent like Cain to add certainty to their lineup. I think there is plenty of logic here for the Brewers. Whether they think that’s worth Brinson is another story. He didn’t exactly light the world on fire in his first major league stint, so who really knows how they feel about him. The kid obviously has loud tools, but perhaps they don’t want to endure his growing pains as they gun for a playoff spot next year and would prefer veteran in CF like Cain.

White Sox Dave just posted he’s unaware of any trade talks between the Sox & Brewers.

Taking on Ellsbury contact is simply buying a prospect. We just spent $50M for Robert. What would you pay for a major league prospect with star upside? If it fills a need we won’t have to address in free agency, then the financial implications are somewhat negated. Plus we should have tons of payroll space in the next three seasons anyways. The thing I want to know is if we did acquire Ellsbury, do we actually play him in CF and hope to offset some cost down the road or do we simply cut him right away. He does have a no trade clause so I could them cutting him being a requirement for any deal.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 21, 2018 -> 08:21 PM) Highly doubt they would need to trade Brinson just to dump salary. Whatever our part in this I’m going to guess it’s a lot less sexy and minor. And FWIW is take a flyer on Broxton. His 2016 was good. Rather give his power a try then whatever Tilson would be. The trade I’m proposing from the Brewers’ perspective would basically be Brinson for Chance Adams & Carlos Sanchez. It wouldn’t be about dumping salary, as the Sox would always be the ultimate ending place for Ellsbury contract.

I know it’s all speculation right now, but if you connect all the dots this actually makes sense: 1) Brewers sign Lorenzo Cain to discounted deal to play CF 2) Brewers take on Ellsbury’s contract in exchange for Chance Adams + second high end prospect 3) Brewers trade Brinson, other prospects, & Ellsbury to Sox for Carlos Sanchez These moves in aggregate make the Brewers a lot better IMO. Also, I’ll repeat it but I find it very interesting that the Sox & Sanchez haven’t come to a salary agreement yet over $300k. Just seems like a completely immaterial amount to not be able to find a happy median with.