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gatnom

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Everything posted by gatnom

  1. gatnom

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    Economists, probably. OT: love the Jorbs tweet. One of my favorite streamers.
  2. gatnom

    Market/Financial Thread

    Credit card fees are probably a better comparison. Credit card processing fees are generally passed down to the consumer by selling goods at a higher price.
  3. gatnom

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    For what it's worth, my girlfriend works at a private (Catholic) school on the south side, and their plan has also been a clusterf***. They are back in person except for those students which opt into remote learning (few in the working class), and the teachers are responsible for both.
  4. gatnom

    Market/Financial Thread

    Bitcoin would act more like a currency if people used it more like a currency. At the moment, it is primarily seen as an investment vehicle, and it behaves accordingly.
  5. gatnom

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    A big part of my political beliefs is that the extent that the government and central banks contort themselves to have an ever inflating economy is not healthy, but I'm not quite sure how a deflating economy (thus causing the rich people pictured in the tweet to lose "money") is a benefit to much of anybody.
  6. gatnom

    Market/Financial Thread

    Hard to know exactly what you mean by "unwind more", but, as far as the balance sheet is concerned, any offloading of the treasuries from 2009-2014 was completely erased by the easing of the repo rate spike last September: graph.
  7. gatnom

    What would you have rather seen from this draft?

    This draft definitely feels like a Rick Hahn "diversify my risk portfolio" move. When he had a bunch of top flight talent from trades, he drafted a bunch of meh depth pieces. Now that much of that talent is graduating, he seems to be after more upside risk.
  8. gatnom

    2020 Draft: Day 2 Discussion

    I don't get the consternation about investing the entire draft into 2 guys. In a good year, the Sox draft, what, 4 interesting guys plus a couple of college players we talk ourselves into liking because we're fans? It seems to me like we got the appropriate amount of players by cutting the slotted rounds in half... I don't pay much attention to other teams, so maybe everybody else (without comp picks) drafted 5 rounds of worthwhile players?
  9. gatnom

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I remember reading a couple months ago that the mortality rate of ventilators was around 80%. Can't recall where, though.
  10. gatnom

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I agree. The reality is that people are irrational by nature, and he plays this really well to his advantage. His critics feel great when they criticize him and his supporters. His supporters double down because they feel they and their leader are being unfairly attacked. Thus reinforcing the loop. In essence, by making everything about him, he can move every issue from "how can we solve this problem" to "how can we signal that we are better politically than the other side." Good politics for sure. Good leadership? Well...
  11. gatnom

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    What's their net wealth increase since January 1? Edit: This came off a bit more harsh than intended. I too wish the government had done a better job of helping those who actually needed it.
  12. gatnom

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    I think my worry is that you see cases spike again every time the orders are lifted. In theory, staying in place for a sufficiently long time flattens the curve, but I don't know if things will be that simple to not overburden the system.
  13. gatnom

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    There is definitely a distinct lack of "end game" right now. Herd immunity needs to come one way or another, and it seems unlikely that you'd be able to keep Americans cooped up until a vaccine is developed (12-18 months is the time frame that I've seen speculated). It's hard to imagine the government getting the testing thing together, so I have to imagine this will have to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. Hope I'm wrong.
  14. gatnom

    Market/Financial Thread

    This may be a bit of a hot take, but I wonder how much people here would change their tunes on bitcoin if they weren't paid in USD.
  15. gatnom

    COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

    It's amusing how prominent she's become in the past few months. I feel like almost nobody outside of trading knew who ICE was like two months ago, but ever since they got her the vacant senate seat in Georgia recently she's been all over the place.
  16. Higgs almost certainly seems gone. I've heard speculation on Kane's grades, but that's just speculation at this point. I've heard Kipper might not graduate this semester, so he might be sticking around.
  17. QUOTE (Brian @ Feb 28, 2018 -> 09:22 AM) I hope the refs don't screw Illinois tonight. It would be a shame to miss out on the annual beatdown from Michigan in the BTT.
  18. gatnom

    NCAA basketball thread 2017-18

    QUOTE (Da_Goob @ Jan 11, 2018 -> 09:44 PM) If none of the freshmen turn into legit players outside of Frazier then Underwood is awful at evaluating players. I think Smith and Damonte will be fine players when it's all said and done. They've both shown flashes this year. Smith has looked horrible most of the season. Not saying he won't ever work out, but I'm not counting on him until he starts playing better. Damonte has played well as a role player, though, you're right.
  19. gatnom

    NCAA basketball thread 2017-18

    QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Jan 11, 2018 -> 09:27 PM) My enthusiasm for Underwood is officially wavering. Kind of a broken record here, but I think it's talent more than anything. They've just got nothing. Dosunmu helps next year, but they need to find about 5 other legit players.
  20. gatnom

    NCAA basketball thread 2017-18

    Illinois has zero talent outside of Black and Frazier right now.
  21. gatnom

    NCAA basketball thread 2017-18

    QUOTE (JenksIsMyHero @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 10:27 AM) I mean, their defense is very good (taking into consideration their complete lack of size) and their offense gets them plenty of open shots. I think the "system" is working out just fine. I'm shocked at how poorly this team shoots the ball, especially from 3. I would have bet a lot of money that Finke was going to thrive and average 15+ a game, but he can't hit the broad side of a barn. Their best players are Black, Frazier and Williams. So you're relying heavily on freshman. The positive is that they make a lot of great plays, plays with ahtleticism we haven't seen in a while. There's a lot of potential there. But they're freshman, so they also make awful, untimely mistakes. Mark Smith has been a little bit of a disappointment but he's making typical (and correctable) freshman mistakes. Alstork...I mean I don't know what I expected but he's not the Rayvonte Rice transfer I thought he was going to be. He made so many bone-headed plays in that Minnesota game. Who else is worth anything? Aaron Jordan was a nice story early but I knew that shooting was never going to last just looking at his form. Kipper Nichols is an absolute bust. He's Brian Randle (crazy good athleticism without the skills to match) 10 years later. Lucas didn't take a step in year 2. My glass half full side still says this is a team that should be 2-1 in the big ten if they could just inbound the ball two times. My glass half empty side says that they're 16 games in which is enough of a sample size to show they're not a good shooting team. The offense isn't going to get much better. It's been good so far, but I wonder how sustainable the defense will be into conference play. We're going to get exposed a bit without a rim protector, imo.
  22. gatnom

    NCAA basketball thread 2017-18

    QUOTE (Brian @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 10:13 AM) Michigan is finally playing pretty well! (Looks at schedule next week and sees Purdue and MSU) Damnit! Just wait until Illinois rolls into Ann Arbor tomorrow. /green
  23. gatnom

    2017-18 NCAA Football Thread

    QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Nov 27, 2017 -> 09:13 AM) The talent they had this year was MAC level, and not high end MAC. The freshmen played because they were better than juniors and seniors, which is terrible. I also saw improvement from individuals but the team has a lot of work to do. But it’s hard to evaluate with so many freshmen playing. Next year should give us a better indication if this is going to work. If love can get us to 7 wins consistently then he was worth every penny. I think we are all seeing the true effect of Beckmann, scandal, Cubit. This wasn't true at every position.
  24. gatnom

    2017-18 NCAA Football Thread

    QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 04:11 PM) That is how you build a program. Barry Alvarez got about half of Wisconsins roster to leave just based off off season workouts. He sucked for a couple of years. Lovie and his coaches apparently don't want Beckman's players and it appears to be a smart decision. I'm fine with what they're doing, but people use the freshman start numbers as a crutch. It's their prerogative if they decide to leave a RB with 6 ypc for his career on the bench because they want to start their freshman with 3 ypc. There honestly aren't many Beckman players left. Something like 8 seniors this year.
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