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Eminor3rd

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Eminor3rd last won the day on October 29

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About Eminor3rd

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  1. Eminor3rd

    Sox in on Marcell Ozuna? I mean, maybe. Or not.

    That trade would somehow be awful for both teams. That’s rare.
  2. Eminor3rd

    Tsutsugo - Sox Potentially Interested

    No -- but mostly I was wondering at the connection you implied with players not working out and "there's a reason they don't come over sooner." But yeah, other than Ichiro and Mastui -- and Fukudome, and Darvish, and Ohtani, and Nomo, and Uehara, and Okajima, and Aoki, and Saito, and Johjima, and Iwamura, and Iwakuma -- it's pretty much bust after bust.
  3. Eminor3rd

    Tsutsugo - Sox Potentially Interested

    You're 100% correct on all of that. The only thing I would add is that there is IMMENSE cultural pressure against talented HS kids signing with MLB teams as prospects, both socially on the kid, and from the NPB on the MLB. And the fastball thing is the biggest worry. These guys are talented enough to do it -- if they were able to develop in an environment that included it. But it takes 9 years for the players to get international free agency rights, which obviously often puts them around or over 30. Can be tough to learn new tricks at that age.
  4. Eminor3rd

    Tsutsugo - Sox Potentially Interested

    And what is that reason? There is one, I’m just wondering if you know it.
  5. Eminor3rd

    Tsutsugo - Sox Potentially Interested

    Fastball velo is ticking up, but definitely still behind the states. I’m not sure what the official number is, but just anecdotally from watching about 60-70 games last year it’s probably about 91-93. Relievers are routinely around 94, elite starters can be 95+ With guys like Senga sitting 97-100, but there are lot of innings given to Mid and back end starters (six-man rotations!) that are sitting 86-89 all game. And there are still some TOR guys too though that are just command control wizards with six pitches that barely touch 90. Most hitters (I’d say 85+%) have a contact-focused two strike approach, which confounds even stateside guys who come over here to pitch and see their Ks actually go down. It’s amazing how many balls these guys can foul off when they’re SOLELY trying to not miss.
  6. Eminor3rd

    Tsutsugo - Sox Potentially Interested

    This is the biggest concern I have as well. You can hide one mediocre OF, but when you start stacking them up...
  7. Eminor3rd

    Tsutsugo - Sox Potentially Interested

    I’ve seen a lot of this guy, both streamed and even two games in person. Overall, I’m on the fence as to whether or not he can be an impact addition. I think he’ll hit, but I can’t be confident he’ll hit more than a AAA slugger. Some things that the generic articles aren’t saying: 1. The guy is a really good teammate. Very popular in the clubhouse and legendarily level-headed. 2. He is a forward thinker. Has gone out on a limb and spoken out against destructive old-world baseball practices in Japan, such as the ritual overuse of amateur pitchers, among other things. Though there is a growing momentum to change these things, it’s still in its infancy and for a player to speak out as he has is really sticking his neck out against the administration that employs him, for no obvious material return. Just an interesting character note. 3. The exit velos are elite for NPB and above average for MLB. The power is real. He is, also, a fastball hitter, which is kind of rare for Japan, and contributes to his relatively high K rate. Essentially, he is the closest thing to an “MLB-style” hitter, that grips and rips, that is in NPB right now, other than maybe Hotaka Yamakawa. 4. The defense is not good, but it’s because of lack of range, not at all because of clumsiness. The arm is also probably slightly above average, although to be fair, that’s hard for me to tell. It’s just what I’ve read/heard. He would be a fun add and a good teammate, regardless. Performance could range from Daniel Palka to peak Billy Butler that can fake the OF. I assume it would be a low cost addition, but who knows.
  8. Eminor3rd

    Tsutsugo - Sox Potentially Interested

    Not true — he’s performed well against MLB pitching in WBC and the two other exhibitions that have happened since. Now, it is absolutely true that he yet to see GOOD MLB pitching. But he’s held his own against average MLB pitching.
  9. Eminor3rd

    On to Plan B

    The fact that they were the highest bidder on Wheeler is encouraging because it at least indicates that they understood how critically important Wheeler was for them in this particular market, given their self-imposed spending limits and the alternatives that are left. Unfortunately, whether it’s their fault or not, they missed on Wheeler, and there’s simply isn’t a comparable alternative available that they’ve decided they can afford. The types of prospects they can afford to part with aren’t good enough to get a guy anywhere close to as good as Wheeler. And the next tier of pitchers on the free agent market are either substantially worse, substantially riskier, or both. At this point, the best Plan B (other than deciding to actually try to be a legitimate MLB franchise and go and get Strasburg) is probably to ride the excruciating train that will be the Ryu bidding, as Boras drags it all the way into March knowing he has to cash in on the elite year of a guy who has somehow gotten to free agency despite being healthy for roughly a quarter of his career. Ryu has the ability to out-produce Wheeler (he just did), but if you want to talk about risk — this is not a guy you want to commit too many years to, especially at the AAV that his 2019 performance is gonna command. Dude has been plagued with myriad issues, including shoulder problems that looked like they were gonna end his career just a few seasons back. Maybe you can get him at... what... 3/65? I don’t know that you can risk much more than that given his health track record. Especially not if you need him to be a horse in the #2 spot. The Dodgers were a great fit carrying nine legit starters and shuffling them around like rookies by exploiting the DL and paying the guys enough to stop their bellyaching about getting shuttled back and forth to AAA, but that’s not what the Sox are gonna be able to do.
  10. Eminor3rd

    Sox in on MadBum

    If you choose a historic outlier to set your expectations, you’re going to be disappointed nearly every time.
  11. I certainly didn’t gather THAT from his post.
  12. Man I don’t know what to tell you. If that’s how you evaluate players in 2019, I can understand why most of what’s being said here seems confusing. I don’t intend that to sound mean, so I apologize if it does. But you’re really missing close to the entire iceberg by just looking at the tip.
  13. Not bad, though. More like “inefficient.” But is that really a problem with this roster? the whole point to this rebuilding strategy is that you collect so much talent that’s underpaid (In other words, extremely efficient) you have space to actually get what you need via free agency, in which only the highest bid wins, making every win, by definition, inefficient. if they were only ever going to sign players that the rest of the market misses on, there was never any point to rebuilding in the first place. You can be an also-ran fringe wild card contender and still be willing to get free agents on “good value” no matter what your payroll is.
  14. I’m not being sarcastic. You said the fact that Giolito would be the best starter on the White Sox means Wheeler isn’t a TOR starter lol. My point, which you haven’t addressed, is that there is no alternative within the White Sox means. THAT is why it’s a huge miss. Not because there aren’t better pitchers in the MLB, but because there’s no one else they can get. Thus, missing him means dealing with a significantly worse replacement.
  15. I’m not sure you read my original post.
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