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About Eminor3rd

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    Allentown, PA

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    Charlotte Knights (AAA)

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  1. Eminor3rd

    2018 MLB Draft

    I would think that if he fell to us, it would be for medical reasons, meaning we should be concerned about drafting him there too.
  2. Eminor3rd

    2018 MLB Draft

    Everything I've seen says he'll be an easy plus defender at second, and the only thing keeping him from SS is questions about arm strength.
  3. Eminor3rd

    It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching

    I subscribe to their version of mlb.tv (Pacific League TV), and I've found myself watching as much NPB as White Sox over the last couple seasons... for obvious reasons, lol. I would love to get Kikuchi, because I'm a fan of the NPB and that would be fun -- but I will tell you this: at the time he was posted, Tanaka was a substantially better pitcher than Kikuchi is now. If Kikuchi creates the same bidding war that Tanaka did, it will be a much riskier buy. It's impossible to guess how they may translate differently, but Tanaka was unbelievable in what turned out to be his walk year. I think he was literally 24-0 with a sub-2 ERA or something. Now, Tanaka has been a TOR starter over here when healthy, so that still leaves a lot of room for Kikuchi to be good. But just as a point of comparison.
  4. Eminor3rd

    It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching

    Fujinami is a bust. Hard thrower, but no semblance of control at all, potential make-up issues, and already a ton of miles on the arm. Despaigne is like if Yasmany Tomas was 50 pounds heavier and was 30 already. Yamada is a monster but has a potentially chronic back issue, and he plays the one position we don't need (second base). His swing is incredibly powerful but also very long -- it's tough to know if it would translate to the majors. He's super fast, too, though. Very high-end talent but some real question marks. Tsutsugoh has been a monster slugger in the past and is still only like 26, but he's having a down year and is a below average corner OF. Seiya Suzuki is awesome but he ain't goin anywhere. If you want to start following a guy that we may have a legit chance of getting as soon as this offseason, look into Yusei Kikuchi, the Seibu Lions ace. High-three quarters delivery, sits like 91-93, can touch 95, has a plus splitter and flashes a plus slider. Solid command. Has been a famous prospect for a while but was disappointing until he finally broke out in a big way last year at age 25, almost winning the Sawamura Award (their Cy Young). The Lions have always said they they'd post him if he ever put together two good seasons in a row, and he's started strong this year, so everyone expects him to be made available. Tough to know how a guy like this will translate -- he doesn't have the elite velocity that's becoming common in the MLB, but we've seen guys with good splitters dominate for a while over here. Might have platoon issues with his delivery. He's probably a mid-rotation guy but he's young enough to be around for a long time.
  5. Eminor3rd

    2018 MLB Draft

    I just feel like Singer seems like a great pick at like, #10 or so.
  6. Eminor3rd

    Robinson Cano- PED’s

    No matter how seriously you think it should be taken, the whole PED use/Hall of Fame/banned substance thing continues to be the absolute worst part of the baseball fan experience.
  7. Eminor3rd


    Definitely weird, indeed. It feels like the ballpark and arena were dropped in from the sky. Also, that factory beyond the fence is one of the worst backdrops for a ballpark I've ever seen, lol.
  8. Eminor3rd


    The season after that, I saw Casper Wells play for the now-defunct independent league Bridgeport Bluefish.
  9. Eminor3rd


    I was so pumped about Jeff Keppinger.
  10. Eminor3rd


    It's brutal. It sucks. As a fan, I've never felt anything like it. But It's year two of a rebuild. I suppose this is just what that feels like. It isn't going to be fun, but I don't think it's time to call for heads.
  11. Eminor3rd

    It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching

    Super interesting -- I remember this study being referenced a lot in articles and podcasts at the time, but I don't think I ever actually read it. I think you're spot on with Lopez/Giolito. With Lopez, FIP should be referenced more as a snapshot than anything else -- by the time a trend sets in, his arsenal and skill will have changed the inputs.
  12. Eminor3rd

    It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching

    It's not, I just made up an example of stats that seemed reasonable to illustrate that you can't make the conclusion because it isn't an apples to apples comparison. Just trying to find ways to illustrate its use.
  13. Eminor3rd

    It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching

    I'm sorry -- it's the index versions of the stats that have the league/park factors. I misspoke.
  14. Eminor3rd

    It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching

    I'm not aware of any method/study that solves that. You've actually hit on the central point of the great debate between fWAR and bWAR. fWAR (which is FIP-based) is generally considered more accurate, but less complete. This is because it includes on the factors that we're can statistically "prove" are under the pitcher's (nearly) sole control. FanGraphs decided they would rather accept that there are performance factors missing in the model -- and leave it up to the reader to decide how much of an influence these factors have -- than to make a gut-based guess as to how much credit to assign to different components. bWAR (which is ERA-based) is generally considered vastly less accurate, but totally complete. It's less accurate because it gives the pitcher all the blame/credit for things the pitcher cannot control (defense, conditions, luck, etc.), which everyone knows is incorrect, but ultimately includes every descriptive aspect of run scoring. Which one is better, as with all of these stats, depends upon the context in which it is being used. In a Cy Young contest, for example, those who feelthe definition of "valuable" should be more closely related to what actually happened during the season, regardless of whether luck or teammates affected it, would much prefer the complete story that bWAR tells. Those looking to evaluate a pitcher for his "true talent," however, are incentivized to reduce error and strip extraneous and non-repeatable factors out of the equation entirely. If pitcher X had a great ERA simply because he played in front of a great defense, you may not want him if your defense isn't that good.
  15. Eminor3rd

    It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching

    Park factor is in xFIP