Eminor3rd

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2012 -> 03:20 PM) So in conclusion, the Tigers had a bad year, the Sox had a good year, and we still finished 3 games back. The Sox are probably losing key players from their starting line up, while the Tigers are adding at least Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez. I am thinking the odds are pretty small. Like in the 5 to 10% range. I think it's a bit higher than that, but I mostly agree with you. My point isn't that the Sox are likely to win, but rather that it's definitely plausible. And it happened this year -- we contended. If you are in the hunt, you can pull it out. That's exactly what the Tigers did. They stayed in the hunt and they pulled it out. If the Sox are in a similar position in August next year, that's a successful season because we'll have a shot at the end. Don't forget that a LOT of things broke right for the Tigers at the end of the year. Early in the year, when they weren't winning, they weren't flush with bad luck or anything, their flaws were just showing. Scherzer is good, but he outpitched Verlander for two months before starting to have arm problems. It's just as likely that he goes down for Tommy John in May as it is that he outpitches Verlander for half the season. Hunter had a great season this years that is absolutely flush with dangerous signs of regression -- there's just as good a chance he hits an age wall as there is that he repeats this season. Victor Martinez is old and his knees are wrecked -- there's just as good a chance his power is gone for good as there is that he comes back as the same player that they signed. You and I agree that the Tigers are favorites, but there is a very realistic possibility that things break our way and we end up in the division hunt. And if we are in the division hunt, we have a realistic chance at the playoffs.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2012 -> 03:10 PM) Depending on what the Tigers do this winter, they stand as a 90 win team right now. If they can lock down some pitching, they moves them into the 95 win range. That is a huge margin to make up, depending just on some luck. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2012 -> 03:11 PM) Yeah, how'd that work out? Everyone (except some of us on this board) thought the Tigers were going to win that many games this year, too. Instead, they won 88 and gpot in only because our Sox totally crapped the bed and lost 11 of 13 down the stretch. We didn't win it this year, but we absolutely contended. In fact, we had it in the bag and blew it. We very easily could have played .500 ball toward the end and gotten in. You're right, the Tigers are gonna be a lot better. I think our chances are worse next year than they were this year. But it's not at all implausible that we could win the division, even if it isn't the most likely outcome.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2012 -> 02:27 PM) No matter what they say, they aren't going to compete next year. This just isn't true. While I agree that it is most likely that the Tigers will win, any team that projects for 80 wins is a couple injuries and a hot streak from making the playoffs.

I think Humber is an obvious non-tender. Hahn should try to send him to San Diego or Houston for a random live arm.

Another year of mediocrity in Kansas City

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 19, 2012 -> 01:25 PM) The catchers stat wouldn't be reflective of the pitchers quality per se. For example, Pitcher A has an ERA of 4.50. When Catcher A catches for them, their ERA was 4.00. When catcher B catches for them, their ERA was 5.00. Catcher A would have a ERA difference of +.50. Catcher B would be at -.50. Taken over the course of a season, it should equalize out to give a pretty good number based not on who they catch, but how much better or worse they are on average, when a particular catcher is behind the plate. That would indeed be controlling for quality of pitcher, by using the pitcher's average. I understand now. You should make it happen

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 19, 2012 -> 10:41 AM) It would be interesting to see a stat done that takes the pitchers ERA and gives a plus or minus to the catcher based on what the pitchers performance was. You'd have to control for the quality of the pitcher and have lots of instances where pitcher's pitched a ton to different catchers. I think you'd have a very small sample of data and possibly no one would end up a standard deviation above or below average. Good idea though. Might be worth requesting this type of research from some of the writers at BP or FanGraphs.

So Trayce Thompson had a good AFL, right?

I would surprised if the Yankees don't re-sign Chavez. Keppinger can definitely hit but he's horrible defensively all over the field. Johnson would be really intriguing because he's left-handed, and could conceivably platoon with Morel to get Brent some at-bats about a quarter of the time. Overall, Chavez would be the best "scrap heap" option if he can be had.

QUOTE (YASNY @ Nov 17, 2012 -> 12:19 PM) I think you just proved his point.

QUOTE (JoshPR @ Nov 17, 2012 -> 07:30 AM) I said the same thing in game threads in the past, Gavin pitched better with flowers and farmio mentioned it a lot, but I got called crazy here and all people were throwing at me was AJ's offensive season. How many times did AJ call bad sliders from Gavin when the curve was working? That's just a small sample, but all people threw at me were the damn sabermetrics bulls***. Lol, what the hell does any of that have to do with sabermetrics?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/t...layers-of-2012/

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 15, 2012 -> 12:09 PM) http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kansas-...-to-deal-111512 just speculation These passages are hilarious: That would be SUCH a Dayton Moore move, lol. I really feel bad for Royals fans sometimes. Yes, Lucas Harrell is the missing piece of the next Royals dynasty, lol. Sometimes I wonder how they find these reporters. It must just be hustle that lands these guys big jobs.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 16, 2012 -> 08:28 AM) My temple hurts more Lol

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/q...rewball-artist/

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Nov 15, 2012 -> 06:05 PM) Don't have time to look it up while I'm at work, but do what does his contract look like? It's really nice, like $5m next year with a $5m option or something.

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Nov 14, 2012 -> 04:52 PM) If he was allowed to stick with his parents he wouldnt be spending hours in the tattoo parlor making friends with the guys there. Yeah, but people are supposed to be able to make friends without becoming drug addicts. My parents don't hang out with me and I have friends AND am not addicted to heroin. Same with Carl Crawford. Same with all non-addicted adults in America. I give the guy a ton of credit for beating his addiction, but I have absolutely no sympathy for him digging that hole in the first place. It is no one's fault but his own.

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Nov 14, 2012 -> 04:44 PM) Not that anyone cares... I got the Hamilton book back from my friend who struggled with a pain pill addiction, and he says it really helped me out. I decided to read it again so I can shed some light on his addiction....Basically blame Carl Crawford and Tampas front office for not letting him continue to be a mommas boy. Through his first 2 years of pro ball his mom and dad still followed him everywhere and The Rays didn't like that. He was then alone and at the time injured. He became addicted to tattoos after seeing Carl Crawfords tats. Josh told Carl his parents wouldn't like him getting one to which Carl told him youre an adult now, so Josh went ahead and got one...then 6...then when he got hurt, he spent hours at the tattoo parlor and made friends with the guy who ran the place. These tattoo guys we're trouble and got him addicted to heroin and other hard drugs.... If they Rays allowed him to be a mommas boy he would probably be in the conversation of being the greatest of all time....now he's just a walking punchline because of his past despite being drug free for 7 years....Sad, I respect the hell outta the guy for putting the past behind him and getting back in playing shape and still living up to his potential. I've never had an official Sox jersey but if the Sox were somehow to get him I'd be the first man in line for that jersey. No, he isn't addicted to drugs because Tampa Bay didn't allow him to be a "momma's boy," he's addicted to drugs because he wasn't able to make reasonable adult decisions. Carl Crawford was right, he is an adult and can/should act like one. But he didn't, he decided to spend hours at a tattoo parlor doing heroin.

QUOTE (mataipaepae @ Nov 13, 2012 -> 07:28 PM) Holy crap it's a fan message board. The message board nazi is here to take away any fun! I just don't think discussing completely unrealistic things is fun. I have fun on this board discussing what could happen with the White Sox in the American League, not what could happen in a fictional universe where Floyd+Viciedo is worth something close to Headley and a prospect. EDIT: Also, it's a bit hypocritical to criticize the fact that I'm criticizing a post. If everyone should be allowed to post anything, then why are you upset that I'm posting something? Are you trying to take away my fun?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 13, 2012 -> 07:46 PM) So can people understand why guys like FLoyd, Rios, Dunn, and Thornton don't have much trade value right now? Guys with big dollar contracts don't bring back big returns. Marisnick and Nicolino are studs, but your overall point remains valid.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Nov 13, 2012 -> 01:37 PM) I can't imagine the Rangers would ever do that. Upton>>>>>>Rios. Plus, they just tried to get Andrelton Simmons for Olt. For some reason they seem to be in the market for a SS. I'd offer Floyd + Sanchez + cash, but I still doubt they'd take that. Olt is a helluva 3B prospect. They tried to get Simmons so they could send him to Arizona for Upton.

Holy crap, the trade proposals on this board...

This feels like the second or third time the Sox have been tied to an OF already (I could be wrong), and with RockRaines mentioning that they're considering moving Viciedo back to third, I'm starting to think that might be a good possibility.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 12, 2012 -> 04:10 PM) Alcohol is a huge problem though. It will ALWAYS lead to drugs, and he will ALWAYS be an alcoholic. If he continued to drink, he would continue to push the limits and he WOULD relapse into hard drugs again. Alcoholics don't have one drink and then call it a night...they will go and drink the night away, and then in the name of spontaneity, they will go and do something else for the hell of it, and, knowing Hamilton's history, that would include relapsing into hard drugs, which could ultimately kill him. I don't consider the relapse to be the main issue in signing him, but "only once a year" doesn't justify or excuse his actions. Once a year for Josh Hamilton is one time too many. Relevant: https://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18883

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Nov 12, 2012 -> 04:02 PM) You're right because when looking at the deals their contracts are not even close...I was wrong, Wells was owed 86 mill, 51 mill more than what Rios is owed. So that reference is pretty extreme. Yeah, that trade was completely unjustifiable. I mean it got Reagins fired.