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Everything posted by Eminor3rd

  1. Eminor3rd

    Renteria goes on pregame anti-analytics rant

    Anyone who even utters “you have to have a balance” is so far behind, it may not even be the same game anymore. Successful franchises like the Dodgers and Yankees got all of this out of their system ten years ago. There is no “old school vs. new school” debate inside baseball anymore. All reliable info is good info and it all has to be used to make good decisions, period. Well-run organizations don’t have time for this — they get everyone on the same page, and if you can’t hang, you gotta go. The Yankees and Astros are revolutionizing the relationship between talent acquisition and player development, identifying and targeting players they know they can improve, evaluating and using feedback in real-time to ensure consistent progress up the chain. They understand their own strengths so well, they are poaching other teams’ underperforming talents and fixing them in a matter of weeks. The White Sox are still trying to get their manager to figure out what order to put the players in.
  2. Eminor3rd

    Ivan Nova open to re-signing with the Sox

    There will be some guy as good as Ivan nova looking for a job in March.
  3. Eminor3rd

    Does Leury Garcia deserve a ‘20 starting spot?

    The problem, of course, is every other stat that you didn’t mention.
  4. Eminor3rd

    Random Sox Trivia

    Yankees, Braves, Indians, cardinals.
  5. Eminor3rd


    If you are seeking to guage a player's overall offensive performance, you are correct. This has been consensus for many years. Also, remember that wRC+ is just wOBA that is park-adjusted, league-adjusted, and indexed to 100 to make it easier to parse. So, unless you don't agree with park and league adjustments, wRC+ is just a better wOBA.
  6. Eminor3rd

    Why WAR is stupid for Closers, especially for Colome

    Please read what you typed. Do you think that the word "replacement" and "average" are the same thing? No one set the baseline for "average" at two. They did actual research and math, and it TURNED OUT that the average player was about two wins better than a replacement-level player. And in that critical distinction lies the primary difference between the nonsense that you are spewing and the current consensus thoughts on baseball analysis: The current standards for analyzing player performance are the results of years of research and objective scrutiny, the conclusions based on no one's opinion, but rather the things that could be repeatedly proven. Your opinions, however, are based on you already deciding on a stance and then desperately trying to find a way to align random pieces of information to support that stance. That those random pieces of information are embarrassingly unrelated doesn't appear to faze you. There is no logic to what you're saying at all, but you don't actually care. Someone could prove you wrong to your face, and you'd still hold the same opinion you started with. And if you don't see what's wrong with that, then lord have mercy on your soul.
  7. Eminor3rd

    Why WAR is stupid for Closers, especially for Colome

    A LOT of problems here, but for starters, replacement level does NOT equal average. It equals replacement level. The average MLB contributor is roughly two wins above replacement level. Secondly, WAR seeks to assign wins in a context-neutral setting. A save is about the most context-dependent statistic in existence, so it is completely unrelated. Thirdly, if you were going to try to make the argument that Alex Colome was worth six or seven wins because of his save totals, you’d have to first make the argument that a save itself is worth an entire win — which, if you think about it, makes no sense at all. How could playing in one half of one inning be equivalent to winning and entire game? I’m not trying to sound condescending here man, but what “research” did you do here? Nothing of what you said above has anything to do with WAR. If you really do want to understand WAR, I can point you to some resources.
  8. Eminor3rd

    Free Agency - How confident are you?

    Hot garbage. We'll get 1-3 post-prime Melky Cabreras like always.
  9. Eminor3rd

    Gerrit Cole - The Rebuild’s Fulcrum

    No chance
  10. Eminor3rd

    Luis Robert

    But it’s more than 20% surplus value, because a guy like that simply isn’t available on a one-year deal of any kind. It’s not really about the annual salary at that point, it’s about still having him without committing a nine-figure long-term deal.
  11. Eminor3rd

    Luis Robert

    You don’t think adding a full season of control at 80% market value to a star entering free agency is valuable enough to spend two weeks without him in his rookie year?
  12. Could not disagree more. He’s a DH with a 111 wRC+. He has managed 3 fWAR once, while putting up -20 runs in RF. This year he’s on pace for just under 2. He’s Billy Butler with a bit more pop and way less plate discipline. He can fake the outfield but he’s a butcher. And Boras is his agent, who has failed to sign a deal with the Tigers for several years despite the fact that the tigers have been motivated to lock him up as a PR move. The ask on his contract is going to be a joke. It’ll come down eventually, but why not just resign Abreu for even less?
  13. Eminor3rd

    Luis Robert kills it in his first game in AAA

    Just a joke, homie. Take a breath
  14. Eminor3rd

    Luis Robert kills it in his first game in AAA

    I'm sorry, I'm too triggered by the fact that the PBP guy said it was Alcides Escobar to enjoy this
  15. Eminor3rd

    What does a McCann extension look like?

    I just think that option is still there next year.
  16. Eminor3rd

    What does a McCann extension look like?

    It is not time for an extension. He has a long bad track record and we control him next year. His BABIP is insane - even if he’s gotten a lot better, he won’t be THIS good, so it doesn’t make sense to pay him at this level. Give it time to see where he levels off, see if anyone else develops below him, etc., then offer during 2020.
  17. Eminor3rd

    All Star Jose Abreu

    Like what?
  18. Eminor3rd

    All Star Jose Abreu

    You've argued it forcefully, but you haven't provided any evidence, so it's not a great argument. For example, you made up a stat in your original post where you would find the percentage of RBI that a batter converts to an RBI. You hypothesized that it would correlate well with who you already think good hitters are. I imagine it WOULD correlate pretty well. Probably about as well as RBIs correlate, in fact. But you know what would correlate even better? wRC+. And there's tons and tons of research that proves it. I'm guessing, based on the stance you're taking, that you don't understand wRC+, but I bet if you read about it, you'd like it a lot. The basic premise behind it is pretty similar to your RBI/chances stat, actually, it just uses events that are actually stable and predictive of future performance, unlike RBI. If I'm sounding condescending, I'm really not trying to. I'm not suggesting that you aren't smart or can't understand wRC+, I'm just saying I don't think you've tried -- maybe because it isn't interesting to you or you already have negative feelings associated with other stats like it. I don't think you'd get snide remarks very often if you took the time to learn about the stats that you're railing against. Like, if you made an informed argument about why wRC+ ISN'T better than RBI or RBI/chances, in terms identifying the most productive hitting seasons, I don't think anyone would react negatively, even if he/she disagreed with your conclusion. That's where the anti-vaxxer analogy came from. I used it because I assumed you WEREN'T an anti-vaxxer. As you know and have demonstrated, it makes all kinds of sense to vaccinate your child. For someone to believe he/she SHOULDN'T do so, that person would have to believe some things that aren't true about vaccines, which means that person would have to have not really done much research on the subject. The whole "but different sites can't even agree on a formula for WAR!" thing actually tracks pretty well with that. Lots of people hear that line, and decide simply to dismiss the whole concept without ever checking the veracity of the statement. So I think the analogy works. It's not meant to call you ignorant, but it is meant to illustrate that ignorance is the result of choosing to be uninformed on a topic.
  19. Eminor3rd

    All Star Jose Abreu

    This is like the baseball equivalent of anti-vaxxer talk
  20. Eminor3rd

    The $$$$ will be spent!

    Puig of the 88 wRC+ batting in an NL bandbox? Castellanos the 115 wRC+ DH? Idk, Ozuna would be a decent option. Same tier of productivity, probably. Certainly less risk. But he’s gonna cost three times as much, too.
  21. Eminor3rd

    The $$$$ will be spent!

    *shrug* Enjoy Carlos Gonzalez then, I guess.
  22. Eminor3rd

    The $$$$ will be spent!

    It's the best they're ever going to do. It's just reality.
  23. Eminor3rd

    The $$$$ will be spent!

    No chance the White Sox get a top of the market guy. I’m an NPB fanboy, so take it with a grain of salt, but there’s a 75+% chance that Shogo Akiyama will be available as a true free agent this offseason. I think he’s exactly the type of player the Sox need, and I think the fact that he’s already a bit past his prime will make him affordable. He’ll be 30 or 31 going into next year. He was an elite defender in CF in his prime, and has definitely lost a step, but would definitely still be average or above in a corner. The arm strength is fringey but the accuracy is excellent. As a hitter, he’s extremely disciplined and complete; a high-contact doubles hitter who will run into 15-20 homers naturally, although he’s had more the past couple years. And he’s still fast, if not quite as fast as he used to be. And he’s a left-handed hitter. I think he can be a sneaky 2-3 win player in the MLB right away, and I think he’ll be affordable because his upside is behind him.