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thxfrthmmrs last won the day on March 6

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About thxfrthmmrs

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  1. thxfrthmmrs

    Castrovince picks the White Sox to win the Central

    Never heard of him, but he sounds more credible than an Australian baseball blogger.
  2. thxfrthmmrs

    Projecting the 2020 White Sox based on FA outcomes

    Your comment here makes a case to sign a elite SP in FA. Good pitching and great pitching is the difference between a good playoff team and a great playoff team.
  3. thxfrthmmrs

    Edwin Encarnacion - DH

    When Madrigal comes up, I prefer him as the primary 1B over Abreu.
  4. thxfrthmmrs

    Projecting the 2020 White Sox based on FA outcomes

    If Robert comes up in May, he would a shot at a 3/4 WAR season. He was one I was being more conservative with. Heck if his fielding at CF is as good as advertised, he'd be a 2 WAR player even with below average offense. But with his raw offensive approach and injury history, I thought it made more sense to be more conservative with his projection. Anything more we could get from him only makes the 2020 team stronger.
  5. thxfrthmmrs

    Projecting the 2020 White Sox based on FA outcomes

    My key takeaways are: 1) You could make the playoffs with a core group of good players and a few stars (see Rays, A's, Twins), which the Sox are set up to do if they push payroll to $130M . However these teams are not setup to go far in the playoffs, see those 3 teams in 2019. Only 2005 White Sox and 2015 Royals are recent exceptions off the top of my head. 2) It is an interesting debating between having star position players vs star pitchers. e.g. Cole or Betts for $35M+ AAV. Huge investment in pitchers are obviously more risky as pointed out throughout this thread but it is also absolutely necessary to have a strong rotation to go far in postseason, as witnessed by the Nats and Astros. Yankees and Twins had a historically good offense but flamed out in postseason. I don't see Giolito being the ace of a WS team 3) If we do not acquire a star via FA, it puts some much more pressure on Moncada, Robert and Kopech to reach their potential as star players, and we supplement with good players via FA. If two of these players do not become elite players and we fail to acquire one via FA, then that's where this rebuild is ultimately a failure (in the sense that it will only be a WC or first round exit team)
  6. thxfrthmmrs

    Edwin Encarnacion - DH

    Bat wise Encarnacion is better, but Moose's positional versatility is something we could definitely use. It is because that he out-WAR EE 2.8 to 2.5. That plus age difference and LH bat, Moose gets the nod for me.
  7. thxfrthmmrs

    Edwin Encarnacion - DH

    His defensive value at 1B last season for the innings played is lower than the positional adjusted defensive value at DH for the same playing time. So moving to DH would definitely have had a positive impact on his WAR. Not sure by how much exactly however.
  8. thxfrthmmrs

    Edwin Encarnacion - DH

    The case for Moose is Abreu has been so bad on the field I think I’d rather have Moose at 1B, even with his limited experience, than sign a full time DH like EE and let Abreu stay on the field. Moose being LHH and much younger also helps. Abreu as a full time DH is probably a 2.5 WAR player, his defense has been hurting his value for a while now. I understand Vaughn could be ready to take over at 1B next year, but Moose with one year left at reasonable cost should make the contract movable.
  9. thxfrthmmrs

    Edwin Encarnacion - DH

    Would you go for a 37 year old EE at 1/$10 or Moose for 2/$24?
  10. This an early-but-not-too-early projection of the 2020 White Sox based on the different scenarios of how free agency could unfold for the team. Point is, we have a good young core costing next to nothing and ample money to spend, so let's see how this could play out. First off, a baseline of how the 2019 White Sox stacked up against AL playoff teams, going by fWAR. I also added 2018 Twins in there as a case study of a team making significant improvements without marquee off season moves: Next comes free agency, and it could play out in a number of ways depending on how much confidence you have in this FO and JR's willingness (or unwillingness) to open his checkbook. I am taking some of the common names thrown around in different Soxtalk threads and projected contract value: Now projecting fWAR and win totals for each scenario: The fWAR projections may be optimistic for some and not aggressive enough for others. Basically this assumes: - Anderson and McCann will slightly regress - Bullpen is a wash between Colome, Marshall and/or a few others regressing but Herrera, Fry improving, as well as adding a high leverage arm - Abreu, Giolito, and Moncada producing at the same level, Robert and Madrigal producing at league average for 80% of the season - Eloy taking a step forward and two of ReyLo/Cease/Kopech giving you 180 innings at 4.50 ERA. Also, obviously, Sox would be making some trades, but it's too much of a reach to project any trades, but you could safely assume any trade will either have net neutral or positive affect on the WAR total, unless we have another Alonso-esque blunder. The result is surprising, but the Sox, on their current path, would be a better team than some folks are anticipating even with a sad but not out of the possibility free agency showing. How are we getting there? Between DH/RF we were at an awful -4.8 WAR. By replacing those positions with league average players, we're adding 7-8 wins to our 72 win season. On top of that, bench play should improve with Leury and Mendick anchoring. Adding 2 SP arms and with some natural progression from the group of ReyLo, Cease, Kopech and Eloy, this is suddenly an 85 win team, if not more. TLDR; even with a disappoint offseason (though seriously hoping Hahn would have more stones), with a couple of breaks going in Sox favor and some mid-season additions, this team could at least fight for a WC spot in 2020.
  11. thxfrthmmrs

    A Realistic Offseason

    Or just learn to deal with disappointments in life instead of being a walking cloud of negativity. If you can’t deal with disappointments in sport you really shouldn’t invest heavily in it.
  12. thxfrthmmrs

    A Realistic Offseason

    Didi will get $14M if not more. He's a high risk high reward compared to Moustakas.
  13. thxfrthmmrs

    A Realistic Offseason

    The reason his xFIP is north of 5 is he is an extreme flyball pitcher and is allowing a below league average HR/FB rate with the Braves. Moving from a HR suppressing home field to a HR friendly one he is going to get exposed. I dont think he's worth the money unless he's looking for a 1/$8M ish deal.
  14. thxfrthmmrs

    A Realistic Offseason

    Shit, JDM doesn't opt out, Chapman gets extended... Aside from Cole, Stras and Rendon, this FA class gets really thin all of a sudden.
  15. thxfrthmmrs

    A Realistic Offseason

    Take a look a his xFIP you wouldn't want anything to do with him. He will get slaughtered at GRF. Even if you want him as a backend starter, he would demand more $$ than one.