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thxfrthmmrs

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Posts posted by thxfrthmmrs

    Michael Conforto: His POV and the Wait

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, chw42 said:

    It's definitely no longer on the table. 

    I am trying to convince myself which is the more acceptable excuse, that they have the money to Kelly/Harrison/VV instead, they thought they could trade Kimbrel but turns out they couldn’t, or that they were never seriously pursuing a guy who now could be had for a very reasonable contract and addresses a major need for them.

    • Like 1

    Michael Conforto: His POV and the Wait

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted · Edited by thxfrthmmrs

    So if rumors that Sox made an offer around 4/$76M were true, I am curious why the he doesn’t circle back with Sox and take that offer at this point. I don’t think he will get anything close to a 5/$100M deal anymore. Also there is no upside for him to sit till after the draft to take a 1 year deal and try again next season, as players who has taken this approach in the past usually struggle to get it going. The Sox offer seems to be the best one available.

    It’s also certainly plausible the Sox offer is no longer on the table, or that they never had serious intent of signing him. We can point to the signings Hahn has already made, but assuming Giolito settles for $7.5M arb, I think they could still give Conforto the rumored offer without moving Kimbrel and going over CBT.

    • Like 1

    Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    46 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

    We beat them in a series at the Rate IIRC.  There were more than two regular season series

    We got swept in a 4 game series in Houston then won the homes series 2-1. Including the playoffs we were 3-8 against them and we’re outscored 66-43. A fluke is when they won a bunch of games by 1 or 2 runs, but that wasn’t the case here.

    But yes, thinking the playoffs was a fluke is an incredibly lazy take and could help some feel better about a complacent offseason. 

    • Like 1

    Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    6 hours ago, KBX said:

    If Correa only gets 3 years, and Conforto is 2/3 the player Correa is...

    Completely different scenarios. Correa didn’t commit to a long term deal because his old agency, not Boras, would get majority of the commission from that deal. The deal is likely done so if Correa has a similar season as he did 2021 he will opt out and have Boras negotiation a long term deal for him.

    Castellanos’s 5/$100M deal is a much better comp.

    Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

    Good thing we did this.  Conforto was waiting to sign until we made a new thread.

    Little did we know that Conforto is actually texting Liam Hendriks asking how many pages we have on his thread, came away disappointed that he doesn’t have his own thread. That’s probably the main reason he hasn’t signed.

    • Like 2

    Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, KBX said:

    Because of all this, I do want them to keep an eye on the future. I'd rather they didn't do too many KW trades and greatly increase the odds of a crash in 2 years. As it stands this is gonna be a great team to watch for 2 years here. I'm not starved to see a WS. I've been through that. 

    The point of making the playoffs is to hope to eventually winning it all right? If the expectation is to only win a bunch of regular season games and secure a playoff spot with no expectations of outcome, then sure, they will do fine the next 3 years.

     

    • Like 1

    Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

    I mean...that's the point about the risk of Conforto...not this year but spending foolish on non core assets in 2023-2025.   A players peak baseball years, by one google search, is 28-30.  So we get this group of 10 guys that will be coming into or at their peak production for the next 5-6 years.  We HAVE the team...we just have to figure out how to pay them...and how to replace them.  So many here have talked about the white sox terrible farm system...and yet all of their top prospects are 21 or younger or fresh from Cuba.  Between Cespedes, Colas, Montgomery, Popeye, Ramos, the high school arms, Vera...that next wave could be really good in two to three years when they are going to need them.   I think they have been doing very smart planning for a long run and a big part of that is sensible budgeting.    

    Cespedes is 24 and Colas is 23, both are at least another year away. There is a reason the farm is ranked dead last in MLB. While it's easy to look at the farm in a vacuum and say we have a couple of nice prospects that could help the team someday (which is an exercise you can do for any other farm system), their collective talent and depth doesn't measure up against other farms.

    Now on to your main point. We lose Abreu after this season, Gio and Grandal after 2023. By 2024, we have $126M committed just 9 players, that's before the arb raises for Cease and Kopech. We may be able to keep the core for 2024, but they'd have to make some tough decisions in 2025. Without significant contributions from the farm, they're a crossroad at that point facing tough decisions to either sign aging vets to try to keep the team competitive ala 2013-2017, retool, or rebuild altogether. Regardless if they sign Conforto to a 4 year deal or not, it really doesn't matter. So the question is do you want to just be good enough from 2022-2025 to have a chance to make the playoffs, or load up in those years to try to get as far as you can in the playoffs? The answer is pretty easy for me.

    • Like 1

    Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

    * Any fanbase that starts off with the premise "our owners, coaches and manager are idiots" would be perplexed by us not giving a QO to Rodon.  There is CLEARLY concern about Rodon's future by the people that know him the best.   They looked at it and said "We can't risk $18 million on this guy".  Listen I wanted Rodon too...he was SO good last year...but it's a cold blooded business and by their actions they think his arm is going to fall off.  

    *  Kimbrel after coming off an arm injury in 19 and Covid crazy in 20 where he pitched a total of 35 innings...then came back in 21 and pitched 35 innings with a 1.1 FIP, a .71 Whip and 15 strikeouts a game...and then got tired and had a bad 20 innnings for the Sox.  And EVERYONE HERE wants to throw him in the garbage can.  Kimbrel had the 6th best fWar of all relief pitchers last year.  HE GOT TIRED.  We use this excuse all the time, sensibly, for players coming off injuries or COVID stuff...except Kimbrel.  He's done, he's garbage...we should have cut him.  

    *  If they can get Conforto for $20 million for one year...man I'm contributing.   But it's a risk for years 2-4...and we have exciting replacements in the pipeline.  Go read some Future Sox stuff on Colas.  As for hating the guys we got??   Graveman and Kelly are replacing Burr and Foster 2.50 ERA for 5 era over 75 innings.   And Hamilton was a 2 War player last year and most of his career.   

    *  And Kopech, and Crochett, and Vaughn and Sheets and Gio and Bummer and Eloy...stop being upset about not overspending for some other teams cast off (I say this often but Met's are TRYING to win...know Conforto better than anyone...have an owner that spends money like crazy...and have said hard pass on Conforto.  

    I just remembered, you are the same guy who was making a bunch of excuses for Reynaldo Lopez and preferred him over Musgrove and telling everyone why it would have been a mistake to trade prospects for him?

    Sounds like more of the same here. Just a bunch of excuses for Kimbrel. He’s getting paid $16M and got tired after 35 innings? It would be a mistake to give Conforto more than 1 year? The amount of water carrying here… I don’t even know where to begin.

    Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, chw42 said:

    Eh, I wouldn't say Machado has been worth every penny, but Harper has. The thing with these mega deals is that the players need to produce a lot at the start so they can off-set the losses towards the end of the deal. If Machado isn't putting up 5-6 WAR every year for you until he's 30-31, it's hard to recoup a lot of that value in the later parts of the deal. So far Machado's had 2 really great months, one decent season, and one subpar season.

    Yes, absolutely with these deals. He's worth 16.2 bWAR if you prorate 2020. He's still 29 though, if he puts up 4 war on average the next 3 years, and 2 WARs every year after, the contract would still have surplus value. And he should eclipse those numbers.

    Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin

    in Pale Hose Talk

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

    Is this accounting for all the missed time from key pieces like Robert and Eloy? 

    The Sox win closer to 100 games had they not missed those guys 2/3 of the season.

    They weren't the only one though. Yankees were also hit hard with injury (in addition to the expected Severino missed season), Blue Jays lost Springer for half of the season and had their entire bullpen on the IR at one point (they lost way mamy games late inning games during this stretch). Sox also had overachievers like Goodwin, Lamb and Yermin that helped carry the team briefly. Yes, healthy Eloy and Robert would have added 5-6 wins to the ledger, but still wouldn't make up for playing in a tougher schedule in a tougher division when all teams' health are considered. And if you consider improvements they made since then, Rays having top prospects like Baz, Patino coming up, getting a full season of Wander, Yankees and Jays making roster moves, it's hard to argue that Sox are better than those teams at this point in time.

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