maxjusttyped

Eaton & Grandal are projected to tie at a .344 OBP, according to The Bat X projection system on Fangraphs. I think being platooned will actually lead to Eaton leading the team in OBP. Eaton's OBP's in Washington: .393, .394, .365, & .285. Unless you think he's washed (possible), I don't think it'd be surprising if his OBP ends up in the .360 range again.

https://theathletic.com/2417537/2021/03/01/chicago-white-sox-lucas-giolito-mlb/

There's nothing groundbreaking in here, but I think a lot of people might find it interesting. There's a moment when Lynn & Keuchel are watching Crochet throw a bullpen which I found very cool.

Skinny Avi is apparently the best player in baseball.

I agree, but Hahn specifically mentioned Kopech is on a plan similar to that of Julio Urias of the Dodgers. He's going to start and pitch in relief at various points this season.

AAA - Begins April 6th AA & A Ball - Begins May 4th

You're one of very few people saying Vaughn *should* start in the minors, and I agree with that completely. Even if Vaughn hit like Barry Bonds at the alternate site, that's not a substitute for upper minors PA's. He likely saw all of those pitchers dozens of times and since they're all teammates the level of competition there won't be something that resembles what you'd find in the minors. There is no downside whatsoever to letting Vaughn accumulate a few hundred PA's in AA or AAA and then if he's hitting like Eloy in 2018 go ahead and call him up. Just make sure he's actually ready for the majors and have that be based on something that isn't Spring Training or how he does against Matthew Thompson/Kodi Medeiros after facing them for the 20th time. But I don't think that's what'll actually happen. There is way too much smoke about Vaughn either starting in the majors or being up in April which makes me think the plan is for him to be in the every day lineup by ~April 20th.

I think it's much more likely we see a platoon between some combination of Collins, Sheets & Yermin than they bring in a veteran. If that's what the Sox were planning on doing I think it would have happened already. Even Eloy spending more time than expected at DH with Engel or Leury playing regularly in LF seems more likely to me than a veteran DH addition, at this point. There's also a real possibility that the Sox feel confident of signing Vaughn to an extension which is why all of the smoke he'll start on the OD roster is out there.

*Every* scouting report you'll find on Madrigal had him as plus defender and base-runner. If you extrapolate Madrigal's FG defensive metrics out to a full season, he's like a -35 run defender. Which backs up what we saw. He was terrible. But that seems very unlikely to continue, for me. There was concern about pitchers being able to knock the bat out of his hands, which didn't happen. Everything we saw from him at the place suggests his approach should play.

My point was to say that declaring anyone has no chance to become a star is wrong. Sure, players with certain body types are probably less likely, but good players unexpectedly grow into stars all of the time. Law puts no value on the high floor/perceived low ceiling hit tool first prospects. There are examples of players like that growing beyond their perceived ceiling and becoming stars.

So, players can't ever surpass their perceived ceiling, but when they do, they're steroid users? Okay then.

That same logic would have lead to you saying Jose Altuve or Jose Ramirez had no path to becoming stars. Players without overwhelming physical tools *probably* do have a lower probability of becoming stars, but the odds of that happening are never 0. Look at the WAR leaderboards over any time span you want. It's filled with guys that weren't on top 100 lists or would have fallen into the high ceiling/low floor bucket as prospects.

I think there are certain skillsets Law completely whiffs on. Middle infielders with fringey power or high end relievers would be examples of this. Someone like Luis Arraez or David Fletcher clearly should have been on top 100 lists, but Law has talked about not valuing those skills at all despite the fact it's clear they have a lot of value. Not having Madrigal in his top 100, whether you think he has much upside or not, seems a bit ridiculous to me. There's a very high probability he's a ~2-2.5 WAR regular right now, and that's without tapping into any power whatsoever. If any prospect evaluator isn't putting value on a player like that, then I think their scale for upside vs floor is completely out of whack. Longenhagen seems to do the best job incorporating new data (in his pods with Keith Law it's sounded like there is a knowledge gap in terms of how to incorporate this into prospect evaluations, fwiw) and I don't see any obvious blindspots in his evaluations like there is with Law. The amount of detail Longenhagen goes into on his prospect reports and the FG board are also astonishing to me. But I understand all of this is subjective. It sounds like I'm bashing Law, but I'm not. He's probably my second favorite prospect evaluator behind EL right now.

8. Andrew Vaughn 24. Michael Kopech 42. Nick Madrigal 69. Garrett Crochet 81. Dane Dunning https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30833166/kiley-mcdaniel-top-100-mlb-prospects-2021

This trade would be a no brainer for me, but I think Adolofo being out of options kills his trade value.