maxjusttyped

Kimbrel for Segura is as obvious of a trade as it gets, if the Phillies are willing to deal from their big league roster.

Player dev also deserves a lot of credit for turning Dunning & Heuer into valuable trade chips. I know Dunning had pedigree, but they handled him well, particularly after he had TJS.

The Mets received draft pick compensation in exchange for Thor leaving. There's no comparable player to Rodon that accepted the qualifying offer. Guys with legitimate health question marks or that aren't elite players turned it down. The only guy who accepted is a 34 year old 1 team lifer that plays a non premium position. It's just impossible to look at the FA landscape and think Rodon wouldn't do better than 1 for 18M, which is why I think it's fair to say not offering him the QO was a mistake. Why leave the pick/draft pool space on the table when the system can use all the help it can get?

They're willing to sign someone to a ~35M+ AAV deal but weren't willing to gamble on a minuscule chance Carlos accepts the QO? I suppose that's possible, but it's giving this front office quite the benefit of the doubt and expecting them to thread the worlds tightest needle if that is indeed the case.

Given the contracts we've seen so far, I don't think it's impossible that Scherzer breaks the AAV record on a 2 or 3 year deal.

It's looking like a good year to be a FA SP.

You listed two great examples that I think were both very obvious in the moment mistakes. No hindsight required. I think not giving Rodon the QO offer is another one, but we'll have to see how it plays out.

If Noah Syndergaard can land a 1/21M deal despite not pitching for 2 years, I think Rodon would at *minimum* be able to get that when he's coming off a 5 WAR season.

If you look at how QO decisions have gone this off-season, that seems very, very unlikely.

I think a Stroman signing can be ruled out, unfortunately. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/free-agent-marcus-stroman-says-no-amount-of-money-would-get-him-to-play-for-white-soxs-tony-la-russa/

Carlos Rodon's 2nd half numbers: 2.51 ERA/3.26 FIP 31.6% K rate 5.7% BB rate. Those are CY caliber numbers if you prorate them over a full season. I'm not advocating for signing Rodon to a 5 year extension or anything like that. All I'm saying is the Sox should have extended him a QO offer (which he almost certainly would have rejected) and if they ended up with him on a 1 year deal at 18M that wouldn't be a bad outcome either.

What's the track record for 39 year olds coming off TJS? I don't want this to come across like I'm arguing against signing Verlander, because I'm not. But the questions with him are as legitimate as they are with Rodon.

Even if they have legitimate reasons to be spooked about Rodon, he's coming off a season where he was clearly the best pitcher on a staff with 2 other CY candidates on it as well. If you get "stuck" with that guy on a 1 year deal that doesn't seem like the worst outcome to me. Especially if they're already budgeting for a high AAV starter like Verlander to replace him anyways.

When players with legitimate question marks or that aren't star level players like Syndergaard, Verlander (presumably), Iglesias, Chris Taylor, Conforto etc are turning down the QO I think that's a pretty clear indication that Rodon would have as well.

I think it's strange when you consider the context of the Sox not offering the QO to Rodon which he almost certainly would have declined anyways.

Sox were rumored to be interested in him before the deadline. I know everyone is (rightfully) super into Semien, but Story makes just as much sense for this team, imo

If you want to be optimistic about this years payroll, the 2006 White Sox had the 4th highest payroll in baseball. There is precedent for Jerry spending *after* the team has shown him it's a real contender. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/topics/payrolls/byYear.asp?Y=2006

Even if the Sox don't trust Rodon on a long-term deal, not "risking" him accepting the qualifying offer (which he almost certainly wouldn't have) to then pursue a 38 year old coming off TJS does seem a bit strange to me.

Sheets has looked overmatched, but that should have been a great AB ending in a walk

That wasn't even close to a swing lol

What is Eloy looking for at the plate right now??

Graveman and Pressly will be gassed by the end of this series, if it goes the distance.

Let's keep getting that pitch count up