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BrianAnderson

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Everything posted by BrianAnderson

  1. BrianAnderson

    Student Loan Debt

    There's going to be a lot of this argument and I agree with it. Unfortunately there's not many good solutions where everybody wins. Definitely has changed lives for the worse across the board. You have people like you who have done the right thing and get screwed. You have people like me who married into it and now have to change everything about our lives for it. It's a completely bogus situation that was created out of human error. Also imagine how the ohter 75% feel. the ones who didn't go to college ... they're even more perplexed and against it. Why should the elite/rich get forgiven for going to college? That's their mindset. There's some merit into looking into income garnishing type colleges. like free college, but you pay a certain percent of your paycheck back to that college until $ a certain figure is hit or until a certain age is hit. It would incentivize colleges to actually prepare you for a well paying job since they are invested into the returns instead of just pumping out degrees for $$. That has a whole other set of issues tied to that solution as well, but i wouldn't mind some competing mindsets in higher education to drive competition.
  2. BrianAnderson

    Trevor Bauer Thread

    We were never going to get him, hell, we didn't even talk to him. His desires match up so perfectly with the Dodgers and Mets it was probably likely them all along. Dodgers have done this in the past where they offer more money on a shorter deal. Mets? I mean it's Cohen at the end of the day. What I've liked about the Bauer aspect all along is his ability to accept fewer years for increased pay. If there was ever a time or situation that matched up with Uncle Jerry's philosophy, time frame, and winning window this was it. We didn't even engage ... so let's be serious. Our "maybe Jerry will change and try and chase a championship before he dies and start paying up"? that's never happening - he'll die rich and with a second place team like he prefers. I'll die on the hill that I would've given him 3/125mm or 4/160mm in a heart beat. I think you could've even done it similarly to Scherzer where it's deferred over a bunch of years. Bauer was and is willing to get creative for the chance to win and to hit the all-time high AAV. Having 3 years of Giolito, Bauer, Keuchel + Kopech and Cease and others coming up (assuming you don't resign Lynn if you go big on Bauer) would've been huge. This year alone having a 4 headed monster plus our young guys would make our bullpen management so much easier ... you'd have 4 guys who can go 200ip. Alas, it's all conjecture and words on a page because it was never meant to be.
  3. BrianAnderson

    A/AA season start to be delayed

    I think without a doubt one thing we can all agree upon is that the MLB will screw this up. They're like the government haha. They purposely wait to negotiate this type of stuff instead of having plans A, B, and C public. They want to keep it close and quiet and then "blame" the current case levels on why ST or the start of the season is delayed. All of this can and has been projectable to formulate multiple plans around. At the end of the day they'll use the guise of "health" as the reason they're delaying the season rather than money while we all know its the latter. Hopefully i end up wrong, but i still think they try and delay this season by a month or two to allow vaccinations to start ramping up more and therefore deaths to plummet (since it'll be the 65 and over crowd with the vaccination) once deaths start plummeting I think you'll see a lot more of "partial seating" plans across all sports. So more like .. 33% type crowds. This season may be a lot more 10-15k type crowds for a longer time.
  4. BrianAnderson

    Student Loan Debt

    In the same boat. We're still going to have kids, but it quite literally makes an impact on every decision. It's fine because i didn't/dont want a big house anyways, but it's definitely such a large sum that unless you're confident and want to throw all your wages at it for a decade+ then it makes more sense to just pay the minimum, watch it go up, and then have it forgiven and just pay the taxes on it as income at the end. The thing is if i throw $12k at it a year for 5 years? 60k later my balance will be up from where it is now from interest. it's wild. I've come to grips with it, but I do think these steps should be considered -- if we're not forgiving loans then come up with a creative solution to help those who have loans out. a) zero percent interest. whatever is owed let the government take that on. this is a meet in the middle compared to just forgiving the loans. b) make very strong tax arrangements that incentivize the payback. like really strong, almost unfair. c) maybe make something where every dollar counts as two for the next 3 years or something? d) allow BK I'd personally like these to be forgiven obviously, but it's not a very popular option and why should it be? there's 75% of the population that doesn't go to college and look at college grads as the 1% in their mind. Why should we help the priveleged? It's a messed up way to look at it since really nobody is to blame here outside the politicians who set off this domino effect by not allowing BK which then allowed loans to be thrown around and then college tuition to inflate wildly while returning no real extra upside wage wise. If it continues like this you'll have to see a correction period of less college degrees and then less colleges too.
  5. I'd be content - not drooling haha. A bunch of 40 year olds coming over to join old man LaRussa. Me also thinks LaRussa is going to be a bit Dusty Baker with timeshares ... i can see him leaning on Molina & Cruz more heavily than he should. Really as long as we don't trade Madrigal or Vaughn or Kopech I'm happy.
  6. BrianAnderson

    Trade Whispers - Starting Pitchers

    Super teams aren’t a thing in baseball. There are tiers. Dodgers & Padres are 1. everybody else? You can make arguments about - so the Yankees, Braves. Sox. Etc. that’s tier two. pitching remains #1 no matter what.
  7. I didn't expect my theory to be proven right while writing my theory ... a lot happens in 9 minutes haha.
  8. There's also the chance he's being used here too. There's probably some truth to us kicking the tires, however it kind of reminds me of what i think is going on in the JT Realmuto situation. I doubt the Braves are actually serious about him. They probably have a ceiling, but why not get involved if you know your division rival wants that person back? so you get in there, start floating to media you're in there, they start writing stories and then you're the phillies or twins going, oh shit, i don't want cruz or realmuto going to our direct competitor! So maybe you come off your 1yr/10mm offer to Cruz and add an option for year two with a $3mm buyout or something. The sox were never going above 1yr and 8mm, but twins don't know that... I feel like that's whats going on with realmuto too ... like phillies were at 5/105 or something and braves were never going above 5/100 but might as well make it seem like that for all parties involved .... Reamulto (sorry i know i'm spelling it wrong) ... his agent ... your relationship with his agent to get more money, the media to be able to write stories, etc. etc. plus then the Phillies now drop an extra $10mm for a guy they were going to sign all along ... Just my guess though. I think Cruz is back with Twins and you see a second year option w a nice buyout attached. Or maybe really incentive driven too.
  9. I tend to agree with the bullishness on Vaughn. The fact the Sox were willing to consider bringing him up last year was telling to me. Makes me think he looked great in Schaumburg. And the fact they were willing to even consider looking bad/admitting the EE signing was maybe bad? Total guess on my part, but given a whole season i could see him hitting .265, getting obp around .350 and hitting 20-25 hr with 60-70 rbis. also with a nice ops. like someone else said a right handed first basemen doesn't go top 3 for no reason. you have to have a really nice bat to get that praise, just like a short second basemen with no pop doesn't get drafted 4th without a bat ... Madrigal is the real deal with spraying the ball around. he's going to hit .300+ for his career. There's values to those type of guys ... maybe not Robert or Eloy type of upside value, but those type of guys mixed in this lineup are absolutely necessary on a championship team. i whole heartedly want those guys on my team.
  10. This is something I agree with. There are certain types of guys who are just pure bats ... now obviously I haven't watched enough of him, but the scouts have. People like Madrigal have gone through the years of college ball and are pretty polished. I dont think its crazy to expect Vaughn to come up and hit for at least average production. either way I hope this cruz rumor is not a precursor to where we sign him and trade vaughn for a controllable pitcher. If so, that would be upsetting.
  11. BrianAnderson

    MLB 2020-21 off season catch all

    Almost February and if you had to make a team out of the available free agents you'd definitely be able to make a playoff team ... world series even? Probably not world series ... but definitely think this is an issue MLB needs to start figuring out. Every year is this going to be the norm? Have decent players just go unrostered into the spring training and the season? SP - Bauer, Tanaka, Odorizzi, Paxton, T. Walker CP - Hand C - Reamulto 1B - Justin Turner 2B - Semien 3B - Didi SS - Andrelton Simmons LF Marcell Ozuna CF - JBJ RF - Joc Pederson/Puig DH - Nelson Cruz
  12. BrianAnderson

    the Corbin Burnes thread **on ice***

    Just my own thoughts, but to me you dont trade for Burnes - especially at the price being thrown around. Top, top pitchers generally don't middle around in an organization looking for pitching help for multiple years before busting out. He and Freddy Peralta were given opportunities for years to step up and good on Burnes for doing it last year, however to pay the price being asked? No thank you. Based on the rest of the division the Sox should have ample opportunity to repeat their trip to the playoffs based on the current roster. I don't need to mortgage a future to beat the Royals, Indians and Tigers this year. Once youre in the playoffs we've gone ahead and picked up Lynn. So now you have a 3 headed monster & assuming playoffs are back on a normal schedule? With travel day and off-days you can get away with a 3 man rotation + innings from a hot pitcher/young pitcher in Kopech/Crochet/Cease/Stiever/etc. You also don't need to rush into anything this offseason - sit back and evaluate your young arms and their progress under Katz. maybe one steps up. maybe none do. maybe 3 do. I'd let this thing play out. You can always go out in June or July and make a trade if you think its necessary, but to rush into one now? just seems risky - especially when you couldve picked up Q on a year deal, or can still go out there and pick up Richards, Rich Hill, Hamels, etc on a 1 year deal. Worst case scenario is Cease or Kopech lose all of their trade value (which are both at all time lows since coming to the Sox anyways) -- best case scenario is those guys look great and you don't need to go trade a Vaughn, Madrigal, Kelley, etc.
  13. BrianAnderson

    Musgrove to Padres

    This. I am super jealous of the Padres. I for sure will be watching a whole bunch of their games with the MLB pass ... Love when teams go for it & they've done so leaving dry powder for even a bigger name/trade. It's wild. They could go out there right now and get a controllable low cost bat if they wanted to give up Morejon and Weathers. And now with those arms (Clev, Lamet, Gore, Paddack, Musgrove, Darvish) they are able to give up some of that depth.. just an amazing movement of chess pieces to acquire this roster. Imagine if they didn't have the Hosmer or Myers contract. Just going around the diamond it makes me smile for liking good baseball .... Nola, Campusano, Caratini Hosmer Kim Tatis Machado Pham Grisham Myers Reigning ROY Croneworth Snell, Darvish, Clevinger, Musgrove, Paddack, Gore, Lamet, Morejon, Pomeranz, Weathers... I mean.... good lord. the baseball geek in me loves this. if i was the GM I think I'd package Myers and Morejon or something for a more cost controllable young talent.
  14. BrianAnderson

    Student Loan Debt

    It's a tough question. Because who are we to say you shouldn't do something. I personally think we should be integrating more real world applications into curriculums in high school rather than "teaching to a test" to be able to master an SAT or ACT score which were metrics that were made up at WW2 I believe? Right? Weren't those tests created to take to determine who was "smart" enough not to go to war/get drafted and instead go to college? I may have made that up, but I thought that was teh start of it. Then of course everything morphed from there and now we teach these subjects that have very little application to real life. How much more would kids like math if you taught it alongside wood shop? Or math alongside programming or math along side finance/banking? Teach math that shows how to balance a budget - how to calculate college cost alongside mathematical statistics of earnings of different fields. You're average payback, salary, etc. Same with english/reading - teach that alongside law. You find connections and teach those connections. Science alongside baking, cooking, etc. Teach them what is happening in the chemistry of these foods and how the changing of the cells create bread. Science connected to health - how are bodies work, how eating right and science are interconnected. Psychology taught with real world examples of how certain things change effect people and how that can be related to their own lives. Theoretical thinking. Entrepreneurship classes.. trade classes .. Kids are kids. Think about how many times everybody changes their major. I started accounting, then finance, then ended up in an insurance/finance roll. But we need to start giving kids more tools at an earlier age in high school and challenge them in different ways rather than just having them memorize shit. The more you do that the more you equip them to make better decisions. It's probably giving too much credit to impressionable kids at age 16 or 18 or 20 because im pretty sure i was only concerned with getting laid and drunk until like 25 to actually but critical thinking thoughts into this, but these decisions to change your life for the rest so i think we have to focus on making sure those decisions are better influenced by our education system.
  15. BrianAnderson

    Student Loan Debt

    Also to add to that.. let's just use $250k as a round number for this situation ... you can stop me at any time and see if there's a root issue. $60k salary $14k taxes $12k housing (either rent or mortgage - if mortgage don't forget taxes of about $6000 more. This is assuming about a $300k house, or $1k rent. $5k food for year ($100 a week - probably heavy - but let's say a few times eating out once and a while) $4500 car payments (just using avg. car payments via quick internet searches) $1-2.5k? insurance and such (total round guessing) $4k Metra tickets to get to work ($13/day + $3 parking -- $16 a day * 5 = 80 = 320 per month * 12 = roughly 4k So all in to have a roof, food, insurance, a car, and to get to work ... no extras, no crazy trips, no clothing, no kids, no anything and an okay starting salary you net at end of year $8-10k Throw the rest of that at student loans of $1k per month? You know have negative balance, no savings at all. $12k per year, maybe you get some nice raises and new jobs and you make $100k and throw $2k a month at it .... Under this plan let's say $12k for 5 years ($60k), $18k for 10 years ... $180k ... Now $250k accruing interest for 20 years until "forgiveness" = $350-400,000. Rough math 15 years from now, you have no savings, you're 40 years old, you've paid $240k in student loans, have $100k left. Have two kids ... which you have to pay for those somehow out of the balance above...pay it off for 5 more years and fully paid off!!! By 45 you can start saving money... just in time for your 2 kids college funds.... which has now inflated to $50k a year by 2040. Better start it all over again!!!! The AMERICAN DREAM!
  16. BrianAnderson

    Student Loan Debt

    This along with topics like minimum wage are such simple yet complex topics. There's no real right answer or wrong answer and regardless some are going to be left upset about the choice and outcome. We can start with the general: A) College costs too much. Way back in the day there was a value proposition, but now it has become over the top. This started with the BK ruling. Once colleges & lenders knew their money was good to go - they just increased and increased. zero risk to them. became an arms race to build newer and nicer buildings. I mean, go to a campus and check out how nice they are -- for about 20 years everything was freshened up. Once one college did, the next did, etc. etc. So that's the root issue. Any forgiveness means nothing if we don't fix the root issue which is to say we need to revamp and fix the college system. These institutions, especially the large ones are just corporations. their endowments have so much capital they're putting to work its ridiculous. In regards to the forgiveness of student loans I will say I am biased because I am in the middle of it. I married into student loans. My wife is from Detroit - grew up on 12 mile, so not too far from 8 mile. as you can imagine her parents didnt have the means to pay for any of her college. She went to a state school - worked jobs the whole way through ... but between room and board and school you're at about $20-25k a year for in state. so you're talking 80-100k minus some nominal waitressing wages over the years that are all but wiped away by interest plus some. she then went on to law school... after a year+ I think it was pretty obvious she didn't want to do that for life, but she also felt trapped - already had thrown $50k at it so she finished out.. add on $100-150k, add on room and board to that too. Now add interest... again she worked the whole way through all of it and put as much as she could at it. (just for that whole crowd saying you can work your way through college and pay it off). Now she didn't end up utilizing her law degree for law, she took a normal job. And you say ... well that's her fault. But she was 21, a criminal justice major, really liked the idea of law. Still loves law, but doesn't want to practice, and got a normal job. Allowing 18 and 20 and 22 year old kids make decisions that literally will change the course of their life for the next 30 years is bat shit. Now here are real things I had to consider as a human being: How many kids are we going to have? Not how many do we want - but how many can we reasonably have? What size house are we going to/did we buy? Should I marry her? Finances are the number one driver to ending of marriage. The end of the day -- we're having at least 1 less kid. Maybe two less. Our student loans are on par with the house, like literally. My payment towards students loans monthly is bigger than my mortgage (not counting taxes). We actively discussed not getting married and just living together for student loan forgiveness possibilities which will now not happen. Those are really fucking terrible decisions to make and discuss because she wanted to be further educated and contribute to society. And that's my issue. Life is about kids, it's about marriage ... its about raising the next generation that can contribute. About donating your time and money to help others. So call me a socialist of whatever - but with the trillions being thrown around? Scrap it all. Dont just forgive 10k, or 50k or for certain classes of people. Forgive it from community college to doctors. I don't care if you're making $30k or $500k a year, everybody gets wiped clean. We shouldn't punish our country for wanting to be more educated, cultured, and wanting to contribute more to society. I don't care that the doctor is making bank -- he donated his time for a decade to learn ... don't punish him for that. I have a buddy who is a surgeon ... people dont feel bad for him. They'll say hes rich he can pay it off. Sure. He can. However, he literally just took his first job this year at age 34. For 10 years he dedicated his life to becoming a doctor. He put off family, marriage, etc. There's enough cost in doing that. So i dont care if he's making $500k now - I'd forgive his loans too. There is no doubt that if loans were wiped that millennials would pour more into the economy. But dont just wipe debt.... fix the root issue, because otherwise its pointless.
  17. BrianAnderson

    Garrett Richards to Boston, 1 year $10 million.

    The one thing I'll say about Giolito is he is very smart. I know he likes it here, especially with his old coach. That said I think he gets it more than most and will be a number driven guy. I don't think you're getting much of a hometown discount in terms of years or money with him. I have strong hope we do the right thing and pay him. That said we don't really have a track record of doing that with pitchers. Hopefully we can find "some" middle ground, but have a feeling he's going to win his deal.
  18. BrianAnderson

    MLB 2020-21 off season catch all

    Who knows how its structured ... could be 4/78 and then 2/12 over the last two years. It's just giving the benefit of the doubt that he'll be worth $6mm in each of those last two years. that's a decent gamble to me for a zobrist type guy. 2/12 for DJ to slot in as a backup/UTIL guy playing 80-100 games at ages 36-37? I'm putting this down as win-win for both sides.
  19. BrianAnderson

    White Sox sign Nick Williams to Minor League deal

    This is the equivalent of when someone signs Fulmer each year (or month nowadays). Our best (and also worst) case scenario is if someone gets hurt and he has to see extended playing time for a month & he hits .280 with some pop and defense for a bit. Any more than a few week stretch out of him and its unlikely to turn out well. I'll take the depth though - always for adding high caliber guys and hoping they find their groove.
  20. BrianAnderson

    MLB 2020-21 off season catch all

    In regards to DJ - 90mm is a nice haul. The AAV is lower, but let's say he got 4/20, what's he really getting at age 36 on the market? 2/10 from there out? So this spreads it out and lets him be on the Yankees at a chance of winning a title for the next 6 years. Kind of a win, win deal for both sides IMO. I'm always partial to Alex Wood - but I disagree with the mlb exec burner account. I think that $3mm guaranteed is a nice deal for the Giants. He's going to do very well in SF (if he's healthy). I'll go as far to say that he'll have a Mike Minor type of resurgence in SF. I can see him getting a 3/30mm type deal next offseason. Health has always been his problem, and if healthy, playing in foggy SF he could put up some really nice numbers. I always wanted the Sox to put a flier on him. Looks like the only flier I'll be having in for fantasy baseball. Oh well, still leaves my man Rich Hill, Kluber, Quintana out there. Kluber market seems to be getting bid up a bit too much for my liking. I can see him topping out at $10mm based on name, past, and his velocity looking okay this week. Some team will take that flier.
  21. BrianAnderson

    Tommy La Stella Emoji of a Target Discussion

    That would be my preferred route as well. Why risk trading Madrigal so early? (I guess the answer is maybe a full year of Madrigal results in his trade value being david ecktstein or something) Plus signing a Kluber/Q/Rich Hill/G. Richards/Paxton, etc. is affordable and allows you to see more of Kopech and Cease (plus Stiever) this year and see what you have there too. I'd rather sign a 1/2 year pitcher at $7-10mm and keep Madrigal. At least we can say we're to the part of the rebuild where we have tough decisions to make .... that's generally the point where you're a serious contender. At the end of the day you don't have to get them all right to win a WS ... the Eloy trade for the Cubs for example. But you just hope you make enough good ones and that the bad ones aren't too entirely lopsided when you look back 4-5 years from now.
  22. BrianAnderson

    Tommy La Stella Emoji of a Target Discussion

    Man, I am so torn about Madrigal. The analytics guy in me knows getting Castillo, Gray, or Woodruff greatly enhances our chances of winning a world series over Madrigal. It squarely puts us in the Dodgers/Padres/Braves/Yankees category (probably above Yankees). I completely understand that Madrigal in today's game doesn't really add as much value as it would seem - HOWEVER god damnit i love madrigal. he's the everyday guy grinding, the small guy against the odds, slapping the ball around the field, playing old school. he just embodies the white sox and the south side. grinding out at-bats, putting the bat on the ball. he's a thousand cliches rolled into one fat cigar. and i like smoking that cigar and want to see him on the sox for the next 10 years. I want that feeling when he gets up with two outs and nobody on that the inning isn't over.. that he's going to be able to knock a single and turn that lineup over to anderson who can double him home or another single that leads to Moncada/Abreu/Eloy/Robert. There's just not another carbon copy of Madrigal out there. he's a special throwback guy and i want that on my team. That being said i get that mednick can pick up slack ... that lastella can do that too & our team is probably better with a rotation of Giolito, Keuchel, Gray, Lynn, Kopech, Cease and knowing that you have those guys at reasonable prices for a bit too.
  23. Boo on this take. Sox fans can't enjoy things, ha. Is this how I would've spent $25mm? Probably not, but at the same time it's really solid use of $25mm, and we've spent $25mm when most other teams (Go Royals! I see you) haven't spent a dime or are actively shedding (Cubbie Blue). We've addressed a RF hole with a capable league average guy who has had enough flashes that he scored us our Ace and the guy who we traded to get our 2/3 in Lynn ... all on a 1 year deal at reasonable money. We got the top closer available and didn't pay for Colome who had regression written all over him (though to his credit he always got the job done). We also have resisted the urge to trade Vaughn, Madrigal, Kopech, etc to get a big short term splash.
  24. BrianAnderson

    Kris Bryant

    This is true. Lindor and Carrasco was wildly low. Clevinger, etc. I'd guess Bryant could and would be had for a Burger type return right now. That being said, if a vaccine rollout starts picking up steam (seems unlikely) and/or the season is delayed to the point where you can have fans in the stands for a large % of the season? Then I think Bryant return may pick up a bit. To me he is a perfect low-risk guy. 1 year is absolutely nothing and no risk and could very well be the difference between winning it all and not. Obviously all just talk like Bauer since not happening. We're the poor Sox.
  25. BrianAnderson

    Trevor Bauer Thread

    Just food for thought - when is the last time a rotation went a full year without injury? Between injuries and off days it's possible to grant Bauer his request while keeping others on 5 games rest. Is it somewhat of organized chaos and go against the "team" aspect? definitely. However I don't think it's impossible at all. Impossible is JR meeting salary demands.
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