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he gone.

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Everything posted by he gone.

  1. he gone.

    Tell me about your Scouts Seats experience

    My take is going to differ from most here. I think there's value in Scout Seats if you get them for the right price. When the Sox sucked and I lived in the city, I'd just wait 2-3 hours before game time, and grab them for $100-150 a ticket. Now the lowest prices seem to be around $225 for mid-week games and like $275 for weekends. Lot tougher to justify that way. That said, if you want to be close to the action and batting circles you're probably paying $100-125 for the first 5 rows anyways. Scout Seats tend to iclude a parking pass, so factor that in too. Now the kicker turns into how much of a glutton do you wanna be? If it's a Saturday game and you're down to drink and eat until you feel like a fat pig? Then there's value, because it's all you can drink ... and if you're gonna throw back 8 tito's and sodas? Or 8 Gumballheads? Plus all the food ...? it really isn't that bad. if you were to be a pig and do that at regular seats you could easily rack up a $150-200 food bill. As I've gotten older though I don't find the patio pregame, scout seats, all you can eat experience to be as fun, but if you do? Then you can easily justify the ticket price. I actually prefer to go to like 3-4 games a year in scout seats rather than 8-10 games in my diamond box seats. But as some people have alluded to, the quality continues to go down hill. for a while there they were doing some really nice options of healthier foods, lighter foods, well-made ... now I find the staidum club, guaranteed rate club and scout seats to have just slightly better than the rest of the ballpark food. It is great to have no line to bathrooms and nice bathrooms, but the walk to get there is probably 3-5 minutes. so really not saving a ton of time. as people mentioned you're tipping (or should) tip the inside and outside people which is another $20. Seats are wide and padded which is cool. if there's a giveaway you get it no matter what, and at least when they were bad you'd get more than one ... i think one game i walked away with like 6 t-shirts. Overall I'd recommend if you can grab a seat for $200-250 all-in and you come thirsty/hungry.
  2. he gone.

    Market/Financial Thread

    also as a rule of thumb drawdowns are 80%+ in bitcoin and 90-95% for alt coins. Ethereum, alts, and bitcoin will have another waterfall leg down. You'll be able to buy bitcoin sub $20k (personal guess in that $15k range) and ETH in that $600-800 range.
  3. he gone.

    Market/Financial Thread

    Generally crypto is not a V shape recovery. You have some time to make a decision. That applies to the market in general. There are very few indicators that are positive on the horizon. Take your time, do you research, build conviction and buy in small tranches instead of all at once. this allows you to catch rounded bottoms instead of trying to time the market. As liquidity continues to dry up it's going to hit the speculative assets the most and put premiums on the necessary items. That's why in times of recession you see equities dip relative to commodities, things with real world value. i.e. you can't live off of stocks, but you can off durables. I would recommend listening to Real Vision crypto which is free. They interview a whole host of creators and analysts in the space. This should provide some context around many of the popular assets and their thesis. For me? I only hold bitcoin. I sold all my other alts during December/January. Rule of thumb is Bitcoin is king. if it fails, it all fails. if it succeeds, it all can succeed. I'd also push the thought process of "explain this asset to me in 3 sentences". If you can't readily give a response on what the asset does or what your thesis is, you should probably go back and research. Bear markets like this will last 12-36 months. We're maybe 6 months in. So much of crypto will depend on liquidlty in the marketplaces because people will not be speculating when they're trying to put food on the table and gas in their cars while worrying about their job prospects.
  4. he gone.

    Market/Financial Thread

    Baby boomers have entered the chat ... haha. it's quite literally the same. they've found themselves incredibly rich based on excess liquidity, globalization, and demographics for 30+ years now. A lot of baby boomers walking around like they weren't just incredibly lucky to be around at the right time.
  5. he gone.

    Gas. High Gas (prices).

    You have to look behind the incentives. Inflation is the biggest hurdle for Biden and democrats. It would be no different if Pence or Trump or whatever republican was in office, they'd deflect too because they'd be on the frontlines of inflation and take the blame. If you deflect and blame, then maybe some people believe you. If you say it over and over it gets engrained like a TV ad. It's not about the truth, it's about re-election. Telling the truth doesn't help them
  6. he gone.

    Gas. High Gas (prices).

    also rig counts don't fix themselves over night. you have an industry that is bastardized and used for stump speeches by politicians and then when supply/demand plays out like this and prices rise, you have those same politicians saying they should pay a windfall tax. I spent time TX and my job was guarantee the plugging of wells on land & in the sea. I've met with a ton of these companies CEO's and when it's good, its great, and when its bad, its Chapter 11. CAPEX is needed, and there hasn't been really a warm welcome or incentive from the government to put capital in. They're in a predicament because any CAPEX put in now? What if Putin/russia resolves itself ... now you have spent CAPEX, oil is down and you're headed towards BK. This stems from both sides. Obviously the right side is warmer to oil. But none of this wouldve been very different with Trump in charge. You'd still see these prices.
  7. In 10 starts against the Tigers, Cease has 9 wins. That's impressive as it not only takes a strong effort from Cease, but also bats early to put him in line for a win and then bullpen to hold. Let's keep the line movin' and kick the Tigers when down!
  8. oh shit, watch out for that .400 BA then!!
  9. it is. which at least the responses are mostly jokes which shows hopefully nobody cares. his job is to punch in, play baseball, and that's all i care about. Nobody has a perfect life and nobody here should impress they're a better person than anderson.
  10. No worries, he's got his main man Howard Ankin.
  11. he gone.

    Market/Financial Thread

    Dow 25,000 S&P 2,700 - 2,900 Those were my guesses 6 months ago. Humans and markets will survive. Just washing out the excess. Good thing in the end. Not many people have had to live a hard life in the US over the past 30-35 years. The demographics, technology, globalization, liquidity, etc. were all massive tailwinds. That's not necessarily the case move forward. The Putin move was as much about the dollar, demographics, etc. as it was about land. There's so many more questions marks ahead surrounding Taiwan, China, Korea, Japan, European Union, Africa, etc. etc Past crashes were more insulated and less volatile because there wasn't as much excess liquidity in the system. if this thing get the band-aid ripped off it'll be bigger than 2008 - it's ramifications now include a more global economy and more liquidity intertwined than ever. If you were to look at a chart of the Dow or S&P and zoom out 30 years you'd see the massive uptick in trend starting in 2008-9. Unfortunately that has a chance of being unwound. But as you said, "i'm not sure if they can last to sep/oct". it's not a free market. it's a fed market. it's a frankenstein market. I tend to agree with you there that they may not let it get as bad as it should and step in and kick it down the road another 3-5 years. But each kick down the road is shorter and shorter. eventually it has to be dealt with (or created CBDC and change the rules of the game ... based on the track record, i think changing the rules is a very real possiblity) Search Peter Zeihan in Spotify or Apple and give a podcast a listen. It's worth the hour. Also has a book coming out tomorrow.
  12. he gone.

    Market/Financial Thread

    My working theory continues to be this. I also tend to like the Dollar Milkshake Theory (Brent Johnson) and think a lot of what Peter Zeihan has to say is very intriguing about demographics, geopolitical issues, etc. Unfortunately i think we have a lot of room down before stabilizing, tend to think the worst is probably Q4 and Q1 2023 post- harvest. I also think the US comes out pretty well in any scenario, but top of the new normal may not be even be the levels we are now. Now all of this can change on a dime ... as you mentioned Fed has ability to pause the collapse with more money printing and QE but that just kicks the can down the road. It has to be dealt with at some point. I think they probably do half the job here and quit after they get inflation down a bit, i.e. their best attempt at a soft landing. Gold is probably the asset best here. REIT's do okay in stagflation. Cash flow, boring companies. But I'm not looking to catch knives. I'll sit on cash until post harvest. too much posturing around Taiwan. too many issues that need to be resolved and haven't been yet.
  13. he gone.

    Leury Garcia - Tony La Russa and Rick Hahn and beyond....

    Ah, you're right. No way he can rebound here on out. Stupid me. Definitely not his legs affecting his hard hit and barrels. And definitely couldn't get better if his stubborn manager and stubborn player just take a 10 day IL stint. I've heard that this is a debilitating leg disease and he'll be in a wheelchair by his 34th birthday. And definitely no value next year on Yaz when the shift ends. Nope he's not the 13th most shifted against player. His value is dead. I'm sure the Giants wouldn't consider any of that because of Casali and Bart. Phew. Thank god you talked some sense into me. Right Soxtalk posters? I would love to hear from other people!!!
  14. he gone.

    Leury Garcia - Tony La Russa and Rick Hahn and beyond....

    DFA? No team would take him? C'mon. You're just hating now. He was a 4.2 WAR guy with 23 homers and a .420OBP last year. Also just to fill you in ... they sent down Bart ... with nobody in front of him. Because he sucks and trying win ballgames. something Yaz helps teams do. Poor take all around here by you.
  15. he gone.

    POSITIVE THREAD

    I'll spin zone anybody who's going to get crazy about kopech leaving today. He was limited to like 60?IP last year. He was always going to need an extended break to make sure he'd be fresh for the playoffs. Lynn is coming back and can slot right into his spot. If he was going to have an injury it's not the worst timing to have it just as Lynn is back. We'll keep surviving! All hands on deck.
  16. he gone.

    Leury Garcia - Tony La Russa and Rick Hahn and beyond....

    that's your opinion. i very much think a team would take a 1.5 year flier on his contract. fans of teams have a short memory. plenty of teams in my opinion would take him including the yankees, astros, giants, angels, mets, twins, padres ... $20-25mm is pocket change to teams who actually care. For the Sox? not so.
  17. he gone.

    Leury Garcia - Tony La Russa and Rick Hahn and beyond....

    i guess you can say that ... but totally different too. You put Graveman on waivers and he's claimed right away. Same with Yaz, same with Hendriks, etc. etc. Guys only pass through waivers when the cost of the contract well exceeds the value of the player. aka, Cano, Keuchel, Pujols, etc. The difference being most of those type of pass through waivers happen at the end of pricey, longer term contracts and generally post injury and with significant decline. The contract given to Leury was after a decade with the team and he's currently healthy. nothing has changed with him and he'd pass through. it was just a very clear overpay.
  18. he gone.

    Leury Garcia - Tony La Russa and Rick Hahn and beyond....

    flip side to that though is you can't build a successful team by overspending in the field and leaving the bullpen a mess... aka, ask phillies fans. Truth is you need a balanced team, which is hard to do. There's a reason only a few organizations continuously win. It's really not that easy of a job - it's like putting together a jigsaw puzzle of projected revenues, expiring contracts, Arb years going up, injuries, breakouts, failures, etc. etc. Add in egos, clubhouse vibes, jerry wanting to spend, not spend? forcing TLR on you? We've seen talented teams in the past that were station to station guys and that was frustrating too... thome, konerko, AJ, jermaine? god i hated that sometimes. you'd have a single, single, single and no runs in. A strikeout and a double play. This roster has definitely been banged up and it's also been handled with kids gloves. TLR seems to project upon Yoan and Yaz and Vaughn, etc. that they're all 77 years old and need days of rest for "sore legs" or "played on that turf" ... it's an out of touch manager who is stuck in the 80's playing L/R matchups and we just dont have that roster. Either Hahn is going to have to get risky and push more chips in on a year that's looking bad and acquire a guy like Josh Bell or we just need to hope something clicks.
  19. he gone.

    Eloy rehab starts again 6/21

    Not too worried about Lynn. It's essentially practice out there for Lynn. In regards to Eloy, smh. Nothing to add. Anderson will be back before him, and honestly? We can withstand no Eloy more than we can Anderson. Eloy's peak to me is Carlos Lee. He's an above average player, but really not that valuable overall because of his D and injuries. His and Yoans career arc is a one or two time all star who are slightly above average. They're not winning you championships, but can be a big part of winning one.
  20. he gone.

    Leury Garcia - Tony La Russa and Rick Hahn and beyond....

    Correct. Also, there's a pretty okay shot if he was DFA that he would pass through waivers. Which is to say there's an okay shot that not one other team would sign him at this price regardless of his past based on these past two months. If you sign a guy to a 3 year deal for not insignificant money, (not to mention with a ten year history) and not two months later it's a contract ALL teams would pass on? That's an awful, no good, rotten, bad signing. Leury is not the problem, but he definitely not a solution either.
  21. he gone.

    Leury Garcia - Tony La Russa and Rick Hahn and beyond....

    And is on a team trying to win. If the Mariners are in it, so are we and vice versa. The point is and remains if we're trying to grab a lefty ... it's likely going to be to fill that Sheets role of 1B/DH/OF. Second base does not produce many viable LH options. Dom Smith actually was a very nice, buy low candidate who didn't have a spot on his team before the Alonso injury. Still might be an option in a few weeks.
  22. he gone.

    Leury Garcia - Tony La Russa and Rick Hahn and beyond....

    Don't disagree. Leury should've never received the contract he did. I think 98% of the people on this board are in agreement on this so no reason to beat a dead horse. What we do need to figure out though is next steps ... You know what's going to be more frustrating? When Eloy is back next week, when Anderson is back, and we're still seeing playing time for Leury or Sheets or whoever because they bat lefty. The problem is we have a shit roster construction by a GM which is compounded by the fact that our manager is obssessed about trying to R/L/R/L regardless of how they actually are performing. Like i think there's a serious chance you see Adam Haesley or however you spell his name up for Sheets and something like Mendick down regardless of how he's hitting. It's crazy, but that's where we're at. I think we have to focus on who is available in the trade market that can play outfield and bat lefty. As someone mentioned a guy like Josh Bell is a perfect candidate. You're not going to have a LH 2B just by the nature of the position, and I'm in complete agreement w the board surrounding our current options ... cut bait. I can see them admitting mistake on Harrison, but just don't see it on Leury. the love affair with TLR and Leury runs deep and also runs deep btween JR and TLR. Hahn isn't going to risk his position a) wasting jerrys money b) admitting his mistake for a 3rd time this year (keuchel, harrison, leury) c) possibly pissing off the big guy on their triangle of love. Just be aware, a signing of Josh Bell will lead to even more frustration around the benching of Vaughn.
  23. he gone.

    GT 6-4: Dodgers @ Sox (7:10pm)

    He's dropped for Sheets ... so umm. A
  24. he gone.

    Joe Maddon has been fired

    the angels build a team like the phillies ... and it doesnt work. can't rely on those arms to consistently win. Or overpaying on contracts to Rendon, Pujols, Upton, etc. etc. just hamstrings them for actual needs. That team is stuck in no man's land for the foreseeable future, though they do have a few nice younger arms if they can stay healthy.
  25. why not all of them? JR has shown he really wants to win it all as he gets older. I'm sure he'd entertain 4-5 of these guys this off-season. After all, it's our window. He's proven over the years its really about winning a world series, not the money/balance sheet.
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