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VAfan

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About VAfan

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    September Call Up
  1. For relievers, you trade them after you have increased their value as closers. That means trading Robertson and moving up Jones or Kahnle, and when their value rises after they show they can handle the 9th, then you trade them. A setup guy, no matter how good, won't bring as much back.
  2. Here's a crazy thought that's been in my head for some time. Only now have i had a moment to put it into a post. With the rebuilding project stalled after only Chris Sale and Adam Eaton were traded, I started wondering if the White Sox could more than compensate for their loss if a bunch of their other players played better than they did last season. For example. 1. Jose Abreu. .657 OPS in March/April, .711 OPS in May, .700 OPS in July. But 1.061 OPS in August, .885 in June, and .887 in Sept/Oct. Finished with an .820 OPS overall. Clearly, there's a lot of potential improvement there. He stunk it up 3 of the first four months of the season, then got insanely hot. 2. Todd Frazier. Might not hit 40 HRs again, but he could do better than a .757 OPS, as he beat that 3 of his previous 4 years. 3. Tim Anderson. He's the starting SS from the get go. Jimmie Rollins isn't getting 150 ABs to flush down the toilet. 4. No more Dioner Navarro, and is 67 OPS+. Alex Avila was much better as a hitter, but got only 169 ABs. Framing wise, both Navarro and Avila were bad. 5. No more JB Shuck putting up a 52 OPS+ over 224 ABs. 6. Carlos Rodon, with a better framing catcher, could do better than a 4.04 ERA. 7. James Shields might be awful, but can't really be worse than 4-12 and a 6.77 ERA. 8. Derek Holland. What if he pitches reasonably? 9. The bullpen. No Matt Albers. Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam back. Nate Jones further away from his injury. Should be deeper and better. 10. No more Robin Ventura to kick around. Of course, the Sox are hopeful to unload a lot more talent before the season either commences, or ends. But as the team stands now, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that, with no expectations, it could surprise. What do you think?
  3. Don't mean to sound like a cynic with that title. I'm excited by the haul Rick Hahn has gotten for two of the White Sox' most valuable players. And it had to be done. Plus, he's just getting started. I'm just pointing out that for the 3rd year in a row, Rick Hahn has made the most waves at the Winter Meetings, and gotten everyone talking about the White Sox. But then the season comes around, and things haven't worked out so well. Of course, this year, we will at least not have any expectations for on-field success! (On a side note, of the tradeable players, I think Nate Jones is the one who doesn't make much sense, as his value would likely increase if Robertson is moved and Jones proves he can close.)
  4. VAfan

    Not Giving up Yet but ....

    I think the Sox don't have any good choices. But I've come to the view at the moment that their most likely path is to try again to patch holes in the offseason and go for it again in 2017. Chris Sale and Quintana will always be tradeable, so there is no rush to unload them, and their value won't be lower next season. The only guys you could unload for some value before their run is up is Frazier and Lawrie and Melky. All are signed through next year. What would they net? Would it be enough to go for the tear down now, as opposed to next year, if the Sox fail again? I think any tear down is looking at another 3+ years to anything competitive, under best case scenarios. At that point, Rodon is nearing the end of his first contract, Anderson is starting arbitration, Eaton will be over 30. In short, there will be no one left from this current team that will be a bargain player the way that Sale, Quintana and Eaton are now. And waiting another year to start the rebuild will give you another year of development of whatever we have in the minors. And since all those guys are years off, that's a plus, not a minus. If we had several guys on the cusp, a tear down now might yield a more rapid return to relevance. I don't see that. So, the Sox should play out the year. Unload any guys with 1-year contracts who won't be back for whatever you can get. But keep all the pitchers and the 2-year guys, make what moves you can in the offseason, and try again. As part of going for it in 2017, however, the Sox have to try it with a different manager. Ventura has had 2 years of tweaked teams to show something, and he's failed. Not sure a new manager will make the difference, but it has to be tried. Going into next year, the Sox could be stronger. SP - Sale and Q will still anchor. Shields can be a solid #3. Rodon needs to be a lot better. Gonzalez might be kept as one of the options for the 5th slot. This would be better than they started 2016. BP - lots of guys injured at the moment. Return to health should improve this unit. Plus Fullmer and Burdi might strengthen it. Fullmer might also be considered as a 5th starter option. Lineup keepers. Anderson, Eaton, Melky, Frazier, Lawrie, Abreu. Not great, but potentially servicable. Key here is Abreu. He has to turn it around or the Sox aren't going to have a decent offense. Lineup turnover. CF, DH, C. Those are the 3 biggest holes. They need to be filled with quality, not afterthoughts. Guys who are BETTER than the 6 keepers. To conclude: when you are 3 good players and a new manager from having a contending team, it's not time to throw in the towel and start over. Better to go for it. If you miss, it won't have really cost you anything.
  5. VAfan

    It's over for 2016

    QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 18, 2016 -> 02:59 PM) From my point of view, it's more like this: I predicted a roughly .500 team in our preseason thread, and today I'm looking at a roughly .500 team. Any who thought the Sox were going to win by sheer force of raw talent alone were lying to themselves, but this is a team who still has a shot at a playoff berth if it simply plays as well as it's capable. The odds are against us (as they are against practically every team) but not overwhelmingly against us. That was ALWAYS the outlook. It's okay to think that it was a garbage plan all along, but this is what it's been the whole time. I don't like the recent streak either, but I'd rather turn on the next game and hope for a win while it's still summer and I can still do it. Plenty of cold, dark, miserable months ahead to brood in. Nothing wrong with being an optimist. My post was more just my personal take at this point, that it's over for the Sox for me this year. I don't live in Chicago, so it's hard to catch games, and relatively easy for me to tune the team out. As I've written in a couple of posts, I'm as disappointed in the "stars" of this team as in anything else. The guys who are supposed to carry a team have been underwhelming, with the exception of Sale and Quintana and a couple of others. Maybe a better manager would wake them up, maybe not.
  6. VAfan

    It's over for 2016

    QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 18, 2016 -> 11:26 AM) White Sox will likely not win another game in any of our lifetimes.
  7. VAfan

    It's over for 2016

    Losing the last series before the break to Atlanta, including a Sale loss when we scored 8 runs, was bad enough. But losing 3 in Anaheim after the break by scoring 1 run in 3 games is really the death knell. There is no hope for this version of the White Sox to compete for anything in 2016. No hope for playoffs. No hope for even a .500 record. Glad I am not in Rick Hahn shoes. He has no good options.
  8. QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 15, 2016 -> 11:21 AM) Abreu went from star to average, Garcia went from dogs*** to old, smellier dogs***. I get your point, but let's be honest here: no one is looking replace Abreu. We will replace Garcia as soon as we possibly can. Frankly, we probably should be. If the Sox knew this year's Abreu was the guy we would have for the rest of his contract, then it might have completely changed the evaluation whether to re-tool or try to tweak things and go for it during this "window." Because, frankly, the only cheap guys we have performing above their pay grade are Sale, Quintana, Eaton, and probably Nate Jones. Pretty hard to build a championship club from so little, when the team doesn't have the TV or gate revenue to buy upgrades at enough slots to complement these guys. Abreu is unfortunately no longer clearly part of the solution. Maybe, hopefully, he'll find a way to turn it around. Because if he doesn't, replacing Garcia isn't going to make a whit of difference.
  9. "killing the Sox" -- headline was too long. Here are Abreu's numbers: Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2014 ★ 27 CHW AL 145 622 556 80 176 35 2 36 107 3 1 51 131 .317 .383 .581 .964 173 323 14 11 0 4 15 2015 28 CHW AL 154 668 613 88 178 34 3 30 101 0 0 39 140 .290 .347 .502 .850 135 308 16 15 0 1 11 2016 29 CHW AL 86 380 342 33 93 19 1 11 52 0 2 22 77 .272 .326 .430 .756 105 147 13 9 0 7 5 Here are Garcia's numbers: 2013 22 CHW AL 42 168 161 19 49 4 2 5 21 3 2 5 38 .304 .327 .447 .775 109 72 5 1 0 1 0 9/8 2014 23 CHW AL 46 190 172 19 42 8 0 7 29 4 1 14 44 .244 .305 .413 .718 105 71 5 2 0 2 1 9 2015 24 CHW AL 148 601 553 66 142 17 2 13 59 7 7 36 141 .257 .309 .365 .675 89 202 13 8 0 4 3 *9D 2016 25 CHW AL 71 276 250 31 58 8 1 5 28 2 2 22 70 .232 .301 .332 .633 74 83 7 3 0 1 0 D9/7 Abreu has gone from a .964 OPS his first year, to .756 this year, a drop of .208. His OPS+ has gone from 173 to 105. Garcia went from a short-season high of .775 OPS in 168 ABs, to this year's .633, a drop of .142. His OPS+ went from 109 to 83. I'm here to argue that what's killing the Sox more than anything is the lack of their "good" players producing. SSS had a post on Abreu today. This is also a follow-up on my earlier thread about how the White Sox will not win until their players produce. That blamed more than Jose Abreu, who I'm singling out today. The problem for me is that Avisail Garcia was never intended to carry the team. Sure, he's a hole in the lineup that the Sox should fill. But if the players the Sox counted on to carry the team were in fact producing at the level they have produced in the past, the Sox' record would be a lot better, and it would make even more sense to fill the hole caused by Garcia. As it is, replacing Garcia will offer a slight bump up, as will finding a replacement CF, but the Sox will still founder because their CORE is NOT PRODUCING. Chris Sale is, but he's the exception. You can't win if your players can't at least play to the level you could reasonably expect based on past performance. Right now, Jose Abreu is NOT a middle of the order hitter. And that's a HUGE problem.
  10. Pitching will be more consistent in the second half. The offense will be as well. Sox will be close enough to add a bat.
  11. VAfan

    Rick Hahn

    I wonder why so many of the players the Sox have acquired have underperformed once they got here. Even the great guys like Abreu are no longer pulling their weight. When has Todd Frazier ever been a .198 hitter? Even Eaton just totally stunk it up at the beginning of last season. Same with Melky for most of last season. This strikes me as the MAJOR problem for the White Sox. On paper, the Hahn moves have not been so bad if the players he acquired performed to projections. I mean, when has David Robertson ever blown a 7-1 lead in the 9th inning? It's just bizarre what has happened. The topper, of course, is the James Shields acquisition. The guy has been a horse for years. 200 innings could be counted on. Not a top notch guy any longer, but you would think he'd be a plus as a 4th or 5th starter. Yet he's looking like one of the most spectacular flame outs in major league history. BIZARRE.
  12. QUOTE (LVSoxFan @ Jun 20, 2016 -> 09:32 AM) While that's correct, if it were just a matter of good players living up to their ability, we wouldn't need managers/coaches. I think you realize how important management is when you hit a bump like we did in Texas, from which we never recovered--apparently. I'm totally on board with the need for players to produce but our management issues are so deep-rooted and in such decomposition at this point that I can't even begin to address the players on the field. Somebody mentioned the last time we made the playoffs being 2008. While technically correct, we basically stumbled into that appearance (after the admittedly awesome Blackout Game) and then got smoked first round, predictably. I don't think player performance is all on the manager or coaches. If it was, then those guys are SERIOUSLY underpaid. No, I think the players have to perform up to expectations for a team to have a good season. And the White Sox have been loaded with underperformers. But you really have to wonder if blowing it up and replacing these players will help anything, or will it just bring in a new group of guys to underperform. Same would be true regarding adding anyone this year in hopes of improving. I think the Shields fiasco could be the straw that broke the camel's back here. Unless the team can somehow show he's injured and get some kind of insurance settlement, that move has sapped most of the spending money that might be used to help the club. Plus, you'd still have the underperformance issue. Personally, I wouldn't do anything to change the club unless the players started taking ownership of their own wins and losses. You can always fire Robin Ventura, but I'm not sure that move would accomplish anything.
  13. Not sure why this post took the tangents that it did. My point was that we have a lot of key players on this team not playing up to the levels they should. Until they do, the team is going to continue to lose. Is that the players fault? Yes. Is the manager also a problem? Yes, but that is a different post. Is the front office also responsible? Yes, but that's a different post too.
  14. There's a pretty hot topic on the site about firing Robin Ventura today. And elsewhere there are the usual rantings about dumping Avisail Garcia. It's pretty easy to support these ideas. The problem is, those kinds of moves will not likely solve the Sox' ills. What is needed, instead, is for the "good" players on the Sox to play much better than they have. Jose Abreu. 9 HR, .422 slugging percentage. 0.6 OWAR. Todd Frazier. .205 BA. 19 HR, but only .464 slugging percentage. Brett Lawrie. .397 slugging percentage, under .700 OPS. Dioner Navarro. Hitting worse than Flowers did last year. Worst framer in baseball. Carlos Rodon. 4.28 ERA, 1.5 WHIP. James Shields. Somehow much worse than Danks or Latos or anyone else in his first two outings. David Robertson. Blew 7-1 9th inning lead against the Royals. Nate Jones. Blew 3 run lead the next night against the Royals. I could add more. Perhaps a manager change would cause some of these players to improve. It's not clear what it will take. But make no mistake, until the core of the White Sox produces like they should, making changes around the fringe is not likely to catapult this team into contention. The team might have it in them. They did start 23-10, after all. Then again, they still can't solve their own division. Hard to see an easy solution here.
  15. VAfan

    Trayce Thompson

    Since everyone seems to be in a pretty down mood, what with the Sox blowing a 7-1 lead in the 9th inning, why not pile on?? I haven't been paying attention to Thompson over in LA, but when you look, he's hitting .279, .342, .538 in 114 plate appearances. OPS+ of 139. Of course, that's better than anyone on the White Sox is hitting right now, and by a pretty good margin. Cheap, and under control for many years, he'd look pretty good in CF instead of Austin Jackson. We might not have had enough to pry away Todd Frazier, who is our best hitter at the moment. But perhaps someone else would have sufficed. In any event, when was the last time we traded away a young hitter as good as Thompson appears to be right now?
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