VAfan

The problem with the offense turning around is they have no patience at the plate. They do not work the count. They do not force pitchers to elevate their pitch counts, get tired, and then groove hittable pitches. Tim Anderson is the best hitter on the club, but he doesn't lead by example, because no one else can hit like him. The rest of the veteran hitters should be embarrassed by how Andrew Vaughn is showing them all up. Still, even he has only 6 walks, just like Anderson and Robert, the 3 best hitters in the lineup. I don't think Menechino is the problem, but the Sox should probably fire him because the players are not buying into what he's telling them.

As one of the few positive posters on Soxtalk, I've been pretty quiet since the season began. The team is just very disappointing on many levels. That doesn't mean it can't rally, but so far, so much of it has been unwatchable. On offense, only Tim Anderson and Andrew Vaughn are above .800 OPS on the season. And only 4 players are above 100 wRC+. Robert and Abreu are the other two. (Not counting Danny Mendick and his 26 PAs). So many others have flat out stunk. Where is Yasmani Grandal, and why is he getting so many ABs at DH? Where is AJ Pollock? Yoan Moncada? You make us yearn for Jake Burger, and your contract is about to be a major albatross around the Sox' neck. For pitching, Michael Kopech has been stellar. Lucas Giolito has also pitched well when he's been available. Johnny Cueto has been amazing in two starts. And even Dylan Cease has done pretty well, though he's also been blown up in 2 of his last 3 starts, which dropped his ERA+ down to 92. In the bullpen, there have been good performances, but also let downs. Matt Foster is one of the bright spots there. On defense, it seems to have stabilized, but there were some early games lost with poor defense, including errors by Tim Anderson, the otherwise star of the team. I won't break down Tony LaRussa other than to say he's made many inexcusable mistakes for a HOF manager. We often overrate "moves" by a manager, and underrate how a manager gets a team to play hard, but even on the latter score, TLR has not done well. There seems to be no team discipline. Rick Hahn and the Sox front office? My biggest problem was not keeping Carlos Rodon, though after starting out with a great first month, he's been roughed up lately and is only 4-4 with a 113 ERA+. But other moves have not worked. Joe Kelly? He can't stay healthy. Not sure Ryan Tepera was the answer, as he's at a 95 ERA+ right now. But they spent a lot of money on Kelly and he hasn't given the Sox anything. AJ Pollock? Seemed like a great trade at the time. Good for a 70 OPS+ when he can play, which has had major gaps. Josh Harrison? Why? Frankly Danny Mendick would have been a better bridge to minor league guys. His money could have gone to keeping Rodon. At least the Nick Madrigal trade hasn't bit us, with Madrigal hurt and sporting a 40 OPS+. Will you finally cut Dallas Keuchel? By keeping him you send the team the wrong message, while losing games you can't afford to lose. He was such a bad signing. Without his contract, the Sox definitely could have afforded Rodon. So there you have it. The players, the manager, and the front office have all performed very poorly this year. I will leave with one final note. 1983. In the first half the team was 40-37. In the second half they were 59-26. TLR was the manager. Not saying it will happen again. But last year, the Atlanta Braves were 44-45 at one point on their way to the World Series.

Here's a story on how the Sox made a higher offer than the Phillies did for Zack Wheeler. This story is dated December 4, 2019. Plan B for the Sox turned into the Dallas Keuchel deal. This story is dated December 21, 2019. Here are Zack Wheeler's stats with Philly. 2020 30 PHI NL 4 2 .667 2.92 11 11 0 0 0 0 71.0 67 26 23 3 16 2 53 7 0 0 288 154 3.22 1.169 8.5 0.4 2.0 6.7 3.31 CYA-12 2021 31 PHI NL 14 10 .583 2.78 32 32 0 3 2 0 213.1 169 72 66 16 46 1 247 8 0 6 849 150 2.59 1.008 7.1 0.7 1.9 10.4 5.37 AS,CYA-2,MVP-19 2022 32 PHI NL 0 2 .000 9.39 2 2 0 0 0 0 7.2 10 8 8 1 4 0 6 3 0 0 40 43 5.94 1.826 11.7 1.2 4.7 7.0 1.5 Here are Dallas Keuchel's stats with the Sox. 2020 32 CHW AL 6 2 .750 1.99 11 11 0 0 0 0 63.1 52 15 14 2 17 0 42 0 0 0 257 224 3.08 1.089 7.4 0.3 2.4 6.0 2.47 CYA-5,MVP-17 2021 33 CHW AL 9 9 .500 5.28 32 30 0 0 0 0 162.0 189 105 95 25 59 1 95 7 0 5 720 81 5.23 1.531 10.5 1.4 3.3 5.3 1.61 GG 2022 34 CHW AL 1 1 .500 16.50 2 2 0 0 0 0 6.0 16 13 11 2 1 0 5 0 0 1 38 24 6.24 2.833 24.0 3.0 1.5 7.5 5.00 Wheeler was lights out in both 2020 and 2021 for Philly, but has struggled so far this year. Dallas Keuchel did even better than Wheeler in 2020, finishing 5th in Cy Young voting, but dropped off significantly last year when Wheeler was leading the NL in innings pitched and strikeouts. Just think of how this could have worked out differently. 1. 2020 playoffs. Keuchel started and lost game 2, giving up 5 runs in 3-1/3. Wheeler would have gotten the start. Sox might have won that series in 2 games. 2. 2021 playoffs. Wheeler probably would have gotten the game 1 start. Didn't have a better ERA than Lynn, but he's younger, stronger, healthier. Could that series have flipped with Wheeler? 3. 2022. All my fretting about re-signing Carlos Rodon would likely be moot. Sox still might have added Velasquez for depth, but their front 5 would have been Wheeler, Lynn, Giolito, Cease, and Kopech. (So what if they are all right handers? They're still all TOR pitchers.) Even without Lynn and Giolito, they would still have Wheeler, Cease, and Kopech to manage until Giolito and Lynn returned. Velasquez could serve the same role as he does now. 4. With Wheeler, the Sox still would have brought back Rodon in 2021. But at the end of the year, they also might have tendered him and gotten the draft pick. Even if he took it, the Sox would then have by far the best 6-man rotation in baseball. 5. Wheeler might have also been happier playing on a winning team and making the playoffs in back-to-back years, rather than leading a Philly team that missed the playoffs both years. So, instead of pining for Carlos Rodon, I've decided on replacing that with wondering "what if" for Zack Wheeler. This also would been a better allocation of money, since Wheeler is worth his contract, while Keuchel never really has been. And we'd still have Wheeler locked up for this year and 2 more years. So even if Giolito were to leave in 2024, we'd still have Lynn, Wheeler, Cease and Kopech to top the rotation. Zack Wheeler is the one who got away, all because his wife wanted to stay on the East Coast. Bummer.

Garcia is worth more than his hitting stats indicate. He's always smiling. Looks like a very upbeat guy. Helps team cohesion. He's able to play all positions except pitcher and catcher, and 1B. In a tight roster, that has value. His batting is streaky. In July he put up a .792 OPS, and in Sept/Oct, it was .861, That was better than quite a few guys. He had a horrid start last year, just like this year. I'm firmly in the camp that he's overused. But I don't think we have anyone in the minors right now who could replace him.

If Vaughn wants everyday ABs against right handers, he has to continue earning them by hitting them better than the alternatives, including Eloy and Abreu, Sheets, Moncada (if you play him at 3B on occasion) and Pollock He's a DH, 1B, RF, LF most often, but can also play 3B in a pinch, and maybe even 2B for a game. Who is in those roles against right handers? For DH, it could be Grandal, Sheets, Eloy, and Abreu. For 1B, it could be Abreu, Grandal, and Sheets. For LF, it could be Eloy, Sheets, Pollock, or Engel. For RF, it could be Pollock, Engel, or Sheets. For 3B, it's Moncada, Burger, Harrison, or Garcia. How many of those hitters did Vaughn hit better against right handers last season? None of them. And it wasn't close. i'm excited to see him have a new approach and hit them solidly over a few ABs so far this year. But a few ABs don't make a season. TLR knows he needs to work Vaughn in, and he will. But the Sox need every one of the other guys to produce this year. So it's no solution to just "bench" someone else for Vaughn. The good news for Vaughn is that he's capable enough to play a lot of positions. This is going to get him more ABs than he would if he was just a DH/1B

Let's compare the 2021 and 2022 opening day rosters. Position 2021 Player 2022 Player SP Giolito Giolito Lynn IL Rodon SF Cease Cease Keuchel Keuchel Kopech (BP) Kopech Phillies Velasquez Giants Cueto (Minors) BP Hendriks Hendriks Bummer Bummer Mariners Graveman Dodgers (IL now) Kelly Crochet IL Marshall ?? Heuer Cubs Foster Foster Ruiz Ruiz ?? Crick ?? Tanner ?? Sousa AAA Lopez C Grandal Grandal Collins Blue Jays Mercedes IL Blue Jays McGuire 1B Abreu Abreu AAA Sheets 2B Madrigal Cubs Pirates Harrison 3B Moncada IL AAA Burger SS Anderson Suspension 2 games Mendick Util Garcia Garcia OF Robert Robert Vaughn Vaughn Eaton ?? Lamb Giants? Hamilton Mariners? Dodgers Pollock IL Jimenez IL Engel Starting pitching. Much worse. What's better or worse? Worse: No Rodon, Lynn on IL for 2 months. Who knows what you have in Velasquez, Keuchel, Kopech as a starter, or Cueto if/when he gets called up? Potentially better: Giolito could start better than last year, and Cease could take another leap forward. Kopech might be great when he's stretched out. Bullpen. Better. Better: Graveman, Kelly (when he arrives), Lopez (if he brings what he added at the end of last year), possibly Bummer. Worse: Crochet out for year, Kopech in rotation. Unknown: how well will Tanner, Sousa, Foster and Crick pitch? Catcher. Slightly better. Grandal is hopefully just as good, and will stay healthier. McGuire is a major defensive upgrade as the backup. DH. Much better. Gavin Sheets is a huge upgrade from rookie Andrew Vaughn against right handers. Vaughn will also be better this year. And there are lots of other guys who can be rotated in here. Infield. Slightly worse. Abreu should be about the same. Anderson could be better. But Madrigal is likely better than Harrison, and how well will Burger hit while Moncada is on the IL, and how well will Moncada hit when he returns? Outfield. Vast improvement. Robert is much better than he was to start last year. Pollock is a huge upgrade over Eaton. Engel is healthy. And Jimenez is back. They can also use Vaughn, Sheets, Garcia, and Harrison out here in a pinch if needed. ************ Pitching. Weaker starters, stronger bullpen. The pitchers need to hold the fort until Lynn returns and Kopech gets acclimated to starting. Kelly will help the bullpen a lot when he's ready. Offense. Major improvement. Luis Robert, Jimenez, Pollock, Gavin Sheets (against righties), 2nd year Vaughn. These are huge additions. Defense. Better. Pollock in RF, Engel being healthy, Jimenez over Vaughn in LF, McGuire at backup C, probably Harrison over Madrigal. Burger should be okay at 3B while Moncada is out.

Not sure why it's a "dumb strategy" to hire the winningest manager in major league history, who has led 3 teams to World Series wins. It would be "dumb strategy" to hire Ricky Renteria to manage this team.

I acknowledge them. But I'm just using the numbers we have. Sure, Burger might not sustain that. But it's possible he could improve as well. I kind of see him as similar to Andrew Vaughn. Both 1st round picks selected for their offensive potential. Whether they realize it is an open question.

The injury to Moncada is very unfortunate. For the Sox to really excel, they need 2019 Moncada back. But it's not the worst thing to have Burger in the wings, having already had a bit of ML seasoning. He got 15 games last year. Maybe he can build on that. I like seeing him playing 2B as well. This why you don't trade away all your useable depth.

I gave the offseason a B, mostly because I wanted them to re-sign Rodon. But the offense should rake and help cover for a thin pitching staff. I'm copying this post because it's also the finishing order I would guess. The middle 3 will be close.

For the record, I defended the hiring of TLR when most were rabidly against him. He's not a perfect manager by any means, and I'm sure I'll question many of his decisions this year, but he is a HOF'er for a reason, and has won more games than anyone in the integrated era of MLB. I don't think the game has passed him by.

In hindsight, what if the Sox had given the ABs last year that they gave to Goodwin, Lamb, and even Eaton. There were a bunch of underperforming guys we put into RF. All were lefties. Could Adolfo have done better? Also, next year, if Pollock decides to leave, there will be a RF opening. Would Adolfo be further along than Cespedes or Colas? If he ever figures out the Ks and stays healthy, he's going to help some team a lot.

I would have slotted Moncada 8th in my lineup based off last year's numbers. There may not be much offensive falloff to Burger. Indeed, Burger posted a 118+ OPS in limited action last year. Moncada was 117 OPS+. Burger had much higher slugging and higher OPS, much lower OBP. Batting average the same.

94-96 wins. Offense is going to carry them. Pitching is thin, but could be bolstered in the second half with trades.

Sheets should get most starts at DH when facing right handers. The difference between him and Vaughn was massive last year. Maybe Vaughn closes that gap, but to start him over Sheets against a RH would be like starting Leury Garcia over Luis Robert in CF. The wRC+ gap between Sheets and Vaughn was around 80, with Vaughn being the second worst hitter on the team, better than only Zavala. Just look at the numbers in the original post above.

I'm not an apologist for the front office, which I'm often made out to be. I pulled for Rodon being re-signed more than just about anyone on this site, and think it was a big mistake that the Sox didn't do it, for example. I think the Sox now have serious pitching concerns, and if the pitching really implodes, it's very hard to hit your way out of it. But we'll find out soon enough.

Reasons I wanted the Sox to keep Rodon. 1. Best starter on the Sox first half. 2. Best pitcher in AL first half. 3. Built up to 132 innings last year after 2 years of next to nothing. Suggests fatigue was his arm problem at the end of last year, not some structural issue. 4. Would have given the Sox 6 legit starters, plus Lopez. 5. Could have used a 6-man rotation to lighten everyone's load, keep Keuchel from reaching the innings needed to vest him another year, and keep Kopech from being gassed before the playoffs. 6. If someone went down, could just shift to normal 5-man rotation to cover gaps. 7. Left handed 8. Only required 2-year commitment, with opt out after 1 year, if the Sox matched the Giants' offer. Had a QO been attached to Rodon, would he have gotten even this much? At this point, it's water under the bridge. The Sox are short on quality starters, and without Kelly for now and Crochet for the year, short in the bullpen as well. They are going to have to hit their way to a title, it appears.

I should have given some context to the ABs that we won't have in 2022, so I edited the original post to add it.

So when the Sox rake on offense I guess all you guys will just complain about something else. Not sure why appreciating the Sox is seen so negatively by Sox "fans". And if the Sox win anything, just don't dare come on here and celebrate it.

People are raving about the Dodgers and the Blue Jays offenses. But let's just look at how much better the White Sox offense is likely to be this year. Here are the deadbeats of the 2021 offense. Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Hernandez 194 45 3 0.232 0.309 0.299 0.608 69 Eaton 189 38 5 0.209 0.298 0.344 0.642 76 Mercedes 240 65 7 0.271 0.328 0.404 0.732 100 Goodwin 235 52 8 0.221 0.319 0.374 0.693 90 Mendick 164 36 2 0.22 0.303 0.289 0.589 64 Hamilton 127 28 2 0.22 0.242 0.378 0.62 67 Lamb 113 24 6 0.212 0.321 0.389 0.71 94 Madrigal 200 61 2 0.305 0.349 0.425 0.774 112 Jimenez (2021) 213 53 10 0.249 0.303 0.437 0.74 100 Vaughn (against RH) 298 66 7 0.222 0.277 0.332 0.61 69 Collins 195 41 4 0.21 0.33 0.338 0.669 66 Zavala 93 17 5 0.183 0.24 0.376 0.616 66 Totals 2261 526 61 0.232 I'm not calculating collective OBP, SLG, OPS or OPS+, but you can see the situation. We had 2 players at league average - Mercedes and Jimenez - and 1 above - Madrigal. Everyone else was below, often well below. EDIT: The 2021 team had 5357 ABs, with a .256 BA, .336 OBP, and .422 SLG, and .758 OPS. Most of these guys pulled those averages down. Overall, 2261/5357 is 42% of the ABs. Now here is a possible lineup of the 2022 Sox using their 2021 numbers. Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Anderson 527 163 17 0.309 0.338 0.469 0.806 118 Robert total 275 93 13 0.338 0.378 0.567 0.945 156 Abreu 566 148 30 0.261 0.351 0.481 0.831 125 Grandal 279 67 23 0.24 0.42 0.52 0.939 157 Jimenez (2020) 213 63 14 0.296 0.332 0.559 0.891 139 Sheets (v. RHP) 160 38 11 0.268 0.344 0.556 0.9 145 Vaughan (v. LHP) 119 32 8 0.269 0.383 0.555 0.938 153 Pollock 384 114 21 0.297 0.355 0.536 0.892 137 Moncada 520 137 14 0.263 0.375 0.412 0.787 117 Harrison 505 141 8 0.279 0.341 0.4 0.741 106 Totals 3548 996 159 0.28 (Note that Excel rounded off numbers, so 0.28 equal .280, for example.) I've used Jimenez's 2020 numbers to approximate what he might look like in 2022. I've used the splits for Sheets and Vaughn because they make a perfect platoon. And I've moved Yoan Moncada to the bottom of the lineup because that's probably where he should hit unless he returns to his 2019 numbers. There are 10 players above, because I've put Sheets and Vaughn together as a platoon. Here are the other 3 players likely to stay on the roster when the team cuts down to 26 players. I used Reese McGuire's totals against right handers because he has massive split differences and would likely play most of his time against righties. EDIT: The group above, if healthy, could end up with as many as 4500 ABs. Robert could add 250-300, Grandal could add 100, Jimenez could add 300, Sheets/Vaughn could add 250, and Pollock could add 50. Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Garcia 415 111 5 0.267 0.335 0.376 0.711 96 McGuire (v. RHP) 158 43 1 0.272 0.333 0.367 0.7 95 Engel 123 31 7 0.252 0.336 0.496 0.832 124 This trio could get the lions share of the remaining ABs. And here are a couple of tidbits to consider. What if Luis Robert hit like he did after he returned from injury last year, or if Moncada returned to his 2019 numbers? Player AB H HR BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Moncada (2019) 511 161 25 0.315 0.367 0.548 0.915 140 Robert after return 180 63 12 0.35 0.389 0.622 1.011 170 ************* What to make of these numbers? 1. Everyone of the main starters has an OPS above league average. To provide some context here, the Blue Jays led baseball last year with a collective OPS+ of 115. The White Sox were 4th at 107. Every hitter on the Sox except Josh Harrison is likely to exceed an OPS+ of 115, often by a LOT. And the 3 bench players are divided, with Engel above, and Garcia and McGuire just below league average. 2. Most of the team is getting better. Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Gavin Sheets, and Andrew Vaughn are all on the upswing. Yoan Moncada could be too. It's possible that Abreu, Grandal, Pollock and Harrison will decline somewhat. But with more on the upswing, it's possible the Sox could hit better than these numbers. 3. The aggregate totals are way below the likely totals because they include partial years from key players. You have partial years or small samples from Robert, Jimenez, Grandal, Sheets/Vaughn, and to a lesser extent Anderson and Pollock. So the HR's you might expect from this group, for example, should be much higher. The Sox led the AL in HRs in 2020. They might vie for the ML lead in 2022. 4. Unfortunately, there may be injuries this year too. But the team is in a better place to respond. Of course we don't want to lose Robert or Jimenez or Grandal again. But if we do, we are in a better position to respond. Pollock can play CF, or Engel can. Sheets/Vaughn can cover the outfield corners. Garcia can cover everywhere. And we still have some productive hitters in AAA in Jake Burger, for example. ************ So, while I'm concerned about the pitching, I believe the White Sox offense could be the best in baseball this year if everyone stays healthy. EDIT: One thing that's kind of fascinating is that I looked up the top scoring White Sox team of all time. It's the 2000 club, which scored 978 runs. They had a collective OPS of .826. The 2021 team had an OPS of .758. 7 of the 2022 regulars exceeded an .826 OPS last year or in Jimenez's case, in 2020. So, if all went perfectly, perhaps the Sox could beat that total. But 978 runs? The Astros led baseball last year with 863. Last time a MLB team exceeded 900 runs was in 2019, when 4 teams did it. GO SOX!!

That's obviously what the Sox front office thought, or they would have handled him differently. Not much excuse for not making the qualifying offer, since it was apparent to outsiders like us he wouldn't take it. Rodon pitched well past May last year, and while he was in form and before fatigue set in, he was the best pitcher in the AL. You can't really "replace" the best pitcher in the AL. So, it seems to me it comes down to whether he might last longer now that he built up a 132 inning season last year. That's almost as many innings as he had as a rookie. In year 2, he pitched 165 innings. For my calculus, what would you pay for top form Rodon in the playoffs? Because he would be your ACE. Your top starter. Someone who could win you multiple postseason games. That's why I wanted the Sox to keep him. To have that chance, even if there was some risk he wouldn't be there by October. The other reason? So you don't have to look at as many starts from Keuchel, Lopez, Velasquez or Cueto, and can still keep all your guys fresh.

I was on Rodon more than anyone on Soxtalk, and have the posts to prove it. I think the Sox will regret letting him get out the door. Especially without any draft pick compensation. But I disagree about Pollock, who is a better outfielder and costs far less than Michael Conforto, who everyone was clamoring for on this site. As for Cueto, the way the deal is structured it only has potential upside for the Sox. If he pitches well, they pay him. If he doesn't, they don't. He has the potential to be a better starter filler than Lopez or Velasquez, who are probably better off being used in 2-3 inning stints. Yesterday, for example, Velasquez shut down the Cubs the first two innings, then couldn't get out of the 3rd.

So why exactly are you a Sox fan?

Not sure what's so bad about Cueto. He was 7-7 last year for the Giants, with a 4.08 ERA and FIP over 114 innings.

There is a lot of hindsight being played out here. I think not keeping Rodon was the biggest mistake, as they wouldn't need Velasquez, and could cover for the Lynn injury. And even if Lynn had been healthy, they could have rolled with a 6 man rotation with Lopez still in reserve. As for the rest, they flipped Kimbrel for Pollock, who would have been the 3rd best hitter on the team last year. He hits righties and lefties equally well. Graveman and Kelly were essential adds to the pen. McGuire is a much better bench catcher. Harrison is a league average 2B. Garcia covers everywhere in a pinch. But they also didn't do a lot of stupid things that have been suggested here. Like trading Sheets or Vaughn, or signing Conforto, or blowing up the salary structure by signing 32 year old Semien to a 7 year deal. The team is better on offense, potentially by a lot. Most of that is returning guys being healthy. But it is still better. The bullpen, even without Crochet, could be better. Will depend on how well the extra guys pitch. The biggest hit has been to the starting pitching. That's not good. It could be bad enough to put us into a division race instead of coasting. But the team is not final on opening day. Just look at Atlanta last year. Worst regular season record of playoff teams to WS winners. I would give the team a C+ or B. Depends on whether they get production out of Velasquez and the bullpen extras. ************** Also, one thing us fans do is just assume deals can be done, when it may be that they couldn't. For example, Joc Pederson turned down the Sox' offer last offseason before we signed Adam Eaton. Who knows what the A's wanted for Sean Manaea from us. We might think they got nothing and would could have topped it, but maybe they wanted Colson Montgomery or Wes Kath from us instead of the shortstop they got from San Diego, and a pitcher we shouldn't surrender. Or maybe they didn't like any offer from us. We don't have the highest rated farm system. Also, the Kimbrel option needed to be exercised before anything else took place. So do you just jettison him for nothing? I'm glad they kept him and flipped him for AJ Pollock, who has been a very good hitter the last two years and will lengthen our lineup. Did that keep us from tendering Rodon? I doubt it. The other thing to consider is that players sometimes don't want to play for the Sox. Wheeler is a case in point. We'd be much better with Wheeler than Keuchel, for sure. But he wouldn't take our money. Marcus Stroman announced he wouldn't play for Tony LaRussa, so it didn't matter if we wanted him or not. It seems like a very easy job when you don't actually have to do it. Imagine if you had thousands of people looking at the job you do for a living and nitpicking everything you did. What kind of report card grade would you get?