VAfan

Bringing up Adkins and going with 12 pitchers was a big mistake. Next thing we knew, Everett pulled up lame. Now Pods is lame. And Adkins gives up 2 big runs tonight in a game that could have made Boston sweat anyway. We can't afford to go with only 12 healthy fielders. Personally, I would have kept Gload and let him play. Everett can play left field, and Iguchi/Rowand can hit 1-2. The Sox don't need to worry about overworking their pitchers as much as keeping a lineup healthy. Vizcaino can use more work. It makes him sharper. And Jenks is a full member out there. I would send Adkins down and have Gload back tomorrow, even if it is a 1 pm game.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Aug 12, 2005 -> 05:07 PM) No. He's in the ol' Shingo/Viz/Walker role right now...pitching whenever a game is a laugher. Which means, given the fact that almost every game is close...he never pitches. Sox would have been much better served to have kept Gload and started him when Everett was resting. We could still use Gload more than Adkins. Our pitching is fine, it is more offense we need.

Right now, I would pitch Buehrle #1, Garcia #2, and Garland #3 and not worry about matchups. That could change, but my thinking is to go to our strengths. I'd have to see how August/Sept. shapes up to choose between Contreras and El Duque, but I'm inclined to start Contreras in game 4 unless Buehrle is on 4 days rest, with El Duque available out of the bullpen in any game. I just think if you start moving guys out of the rotation they've been in all year that it suggests some lack of confidence in them. I can see the logic of matchups, but right now I'm not convinced.

QUOTE(nitetrain8601 @ Aug 10, 2005 -> 11:13 PM) I think this was already posted. Okay, I found it. I'll transfer my comment there. Thanks.

Razor thin margins are okay with me as long as we are on the right side of them. I actually think they help us immensely in preparing for the postseason. In 2000, we went in expecting to crush teams. But when we ran into good pitching and tightened up from the pressure of the postseason, we had no resiliency. This team knows it isn't going to score a lot, but how often do we get shut out? We've won back to back games scoring 2 runs against a ferocious offensive team. That's a huge plus if you ask me. We also have unlikely heros step up. Uribe's triple off Rivera today for example. Contreras throwing 7 shut out innings. Iguchi's recent long balls (won two games).

What do y'all make of this Tribune article? http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sp...tesox-headlines It basically says that Ozzie will wait to see the probable first round opponent to set his postseason rotation. It also suggests, though I don't think Ozzie really said this, that Buehrle might not go first if Oakland is the opponent. What would you do if you were Ozzie? Plus, if we all can agree Buehrle is the staff ace, how to you choose between Garland and Garcia, and between Contreras and El Duque? Would you mix and match to the likely opponent, or just go with your strongest overall pitchers ranked from top to bottom? Since I'm going first, what would I do? Right now, I would pitch Buehrle #1, Garcia #2, and Garland #3 and not worry about matchups. That could change, but my thinking is to go to our strengths. I'd have to see how August/Sept. shapes up to choose between Contreras and El Duque, but I'm inclined to start Contreras in game 4 unless Buehrle is on 4 days rest, with El Duque available out of the bullpen in any game.

So, after today, we are 4 of 6 scoring 2, 4, 3, 2, 2, and 2 runs. Our pitching held the powerful Yanks lineup to 3, 1, and 1 runs. El Duque and Contreras showed they may be able to help us a lot in the postseason. Freddie had a dominant game, Cotts and Hermy closed it down, and Uribe and Pods came through in the end to manufacture the winning run. 6 Ks in the game until then, but they became the heros. Plus ARow caught the final out at the CF wall. We battled in these games and won 2 of 3 in Yankee Stadium against a team that is desperate to get back in the playoff hunt. Outstanding! It's all about the Ws.

You can look at the negative side and say we need to score more than 2 runs a game to beat the Yanks. Or you can look at the positive side and say we beat the Yanks in a game where we scored only 2 runs. I say look at the positive side. Without Everett, our offense seems pathetic. But we've won 3 of 5 scoring 2, 4, 3, 2, and 2 runs. I'd say that's the Sox team that started out the year on fire. Pitching, defense, and just enough O to win the game. GO SOX!

Chris Young for Ken Griffey is not a good deal for the Sox, as much as I want us to win a WS. 1. What are the odds Griffey even makes it through August-Sept into October this year to do us any good? 2. In 1999, when Griffey was still in his prime, he went 2 for 15 in the ALDS. He's just one bat. Sure he's hitting better than Everett from the left side, but the marginal difference between him and Everett is anything from a slight positive to a slight negative depending on which one of them got hot. 3. Next year, Griffey's $12.5 million is better spent signing AJ Burnett. Pitching is what is carrying this Sox team, and what will continue to lead us of KW is smart. 4. Griffey isn't reliable enough to count on filling any position over the 2006-08 years of his deal. He isn't good enough to play the outfield anymore. He's a very expensive DH. 5. Is Griffey going to be happy as a DH? Is he going to be happy with the Sox? Did you read his comment about having spring training in Tucson? He cares more about where he plays spring training than he does getting to the World Series. 6. Chris Young is the best athlete and has the best speed of any player in our system. You can bet the year he makes the majors he will be better than Ken Griffey Jr. is at that time. Get off the Griffey trade. The Sox were lucky it was killed if that is in fact what happened.

The Yanks and BoSox have weak pitching, and we are still playing very well on the road. Meanwhile, the Twins have no offense. We have stolen their game and are beating them at it. Our only real rival in the AL is the A's. We have to hope their young pitching tires in October.

But don't forget the year when steroids-Giambi robbed Frank of his 3rd MVP because he "finished strong." The A's get a lot more play from ESPN and it helps them in the voting I think. Buerhle is the most deserving, but he has to keep his form down the stretch. It would also help to win 20+.

QUOTE(HSC's Biggest Fan @ Aug 5, 2005 -> 12:46 PM) I think Ozzie thought we would score in th 6th or 7th on their bullpen and make it easier at the end with a bigger lead. This what I thought too. The best news out of our pen is that Vizcaino is reliable for the first time this year, and he loves work. So Ozzie should use him and save Cotts/Politte/Hermanson as much as he can. The bad news is the Marte appears lost. But is it fatigue or underuse that is his problem? He was great the last time he came off the DL, but only for a game or two. Should we rest him or use him? I don't know. All I know is we need to rehab him by October because when he's on, he's unhittable. Otherwise, bringing Jenks along is the other key thing.

I think all these - "we're better than you" - posts make no sense. The Sox haven't won a postseason series since 1917. Saying we're going to win one this year isn't going to make it so. Actually, I think the Sox will play better in the postseason if they are seen as the underdog in all their matchups. In 2000, our swagger didn't do us any good, did it? Other teams recognize how good we are, but if they don't, so much the better. And so much the sweeter for us Sox fans when our guys go all the way! GO WHITE SOX!!

Anyone think the Sox should put Everett on the 15-day DL and recall Ross Gload? I think the Sox could get some value out of seeing him play every day while giving Carl a little mid-season rest.

QUOTE(TheBigHurt @ Aug 4, 2005 -> 09:38 PM) This is starting to scare me. Is no one else worried with Frank gone and now Carl facing problems? I have some concerns, which is why I posted this thread. But the Sox have to choose between having 12 pitchers to rest their pen, and having the extra hitter to rest Everett along with the other fielders - Konero and Rowand and Pods, especially. Blum can't play several positions at once. We may have to ride it out for the next month seeing Timo in the lineup more. Come September we can expand with call ups. Fortunately we have a comfortable lead which keeps any of this from being a crisis.

I think Ozzie has been doing some very odd things with his bullpen lately. Today was a good example. First, going to the bullpen to start the 6th in a 1-run game was the right thing. Contreras was above 100 pitches, but barely escaped with the lead in the 5th. Second, why was Cotts the 6th inning choice? The way I rank the bullpen, from the 9th inning backward, is Hermanson, Politte, Cotts, Vizcaino/Marte, Jenks, Adkins. Instead, Ozzie seems to value Vizcaino and Marte more highly than Cotts and Politte, which, based on performance, is absurd. In the 6th, with the bottom of Toronto's lineup up, why didn't Vizcaino/Marte get chosen, with either one allowed to finish the inning if they were getting guys out? Then you have Cotts 7th, Politte 8th, Hermanson 9th. Third, why was Cotts yanked after getting two outs? Why was Politte yanked after getting two outs? The result was that Politte had to stradle two innings, as did Marte. Why not treat each Cotts, Politte, and Hermanson as 1-inning closers for the inning they are given? Cotts gets righties out better than lefties, so that shouldn't be a reason to sit him. I'm glad we won the game. But I sure would like Ozzie to manage his bullpen better. This will be his most important task in the postseason, and how he handles it may make all the difference between first round losers and World Series champions.

I'm glad to hear this. I thought the deal the Nightengale talked about would not have been a good one for the Sox. We don't need a prima donna like that who ought to have been humbled by several years in a row of zero production. The Reds were a playoff team before he arrived, but haven't whiffed .500 since, isn't that right?

How many games will Everett likely sit because of the groin strain he got during his pick off today? Remember with Ozzie is always until he's healthy +1. I take it they aren't looking at the DL over this, are they? I don't want to see Everett go down, but I do think the Sox should try to find a way to rest him more, and Blum can only rest so many guys. With 12 pitchers it is impossible, but are there any thoughts to bringing up a Brian Anderson or some other hitter who might spell Carl? They don't seem willing to give Gload that chance, though he's the logical choice.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Aug 3, 2005 -> 10:18 PM) I've noticed that you tend to underrate very good hitters. You did the same damn thing with Aubrey Huff by calling him just a Good player when in fact he's a great hitter (30/100/.300/875+) Now you're doing the same thing with Griffey. There is no comparison offensively between Griffey and Everett. Huff >>>>> Everett Griffey >>>>> Everett. Let's see now. Griffey has been injured EVERY YEAR of the last how many years?? Sure he's dodged the bullet this year, SO FAR. Does that mean he even makes it to October?? It seems to me you are betting the farm on a highly risky player. And I think Griffey has negative value in subsequent years because he is absorbing money we could spend on more reliable players. Remember Carlos Lee? Wouldn't you rather have him as the DH? Didn't we get rid of him because he was making $8 million/year? I'm not suggesting we reverse the trade for Pods, just that there may be hitters cheaper, but more reliable and a lot younger than Ken Griffey. But let's also look at the marginal value again. 1995 ALDS SEA NYY W 5 23 9 9 0 0 5 7 2 4 .391 .444 1.043 ALCS SEA CLE L 6 21 2 7 2 0 1 2 4 4 .333 .440 .571 1997 ALDS SEA BAL L 4 15 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 .133 .188 .133 In 1995, in the prime of his career 10 years ago, Ken Griffey had a great postseason. Then in 1997, when he was still a superstar, Ken Griffey laid an egg. 2 hits in 15 ABs. Remember what happened to Frank Thomas in 2000? MVP season. He and Maggs and Lee couldn't hit a lick in 3 games against Seattle. Griffey sounds sexy because he's a name. He was once good. But trading for such faded stars on their last legs is not the way to build a winning team year after year. It is certainly not worth giving up one of our top prospects. Baseball America lists Chris Young as our 6th best prospect. But he also rates as our best baserunner and best athlete. I'm willing to take my chances in the postseason with Carl Everett if we can't add a bat that costs a whole lot less risk than Ken Griffey. And I believe the Sox will still be kicking ass in 2008 with Chris Young in the outfield and Brandon McCarthy on the mound.

QUOTE(Dam8610 @ Aug 3, 2005 -> 06:13 AM) Well, after doing some research, I came up with comparable stats of some of the best pitchers in MLB from their minor league years. Pedro Martinez: 8.53 K/9 1.19 WHIP 2.40 K/BB ratio Roy Halladay: 5.87 K/9 1.31 WHIP 2.00 K/BB ratio Jake Peavy: 11.33 K/9 1.10 WHIP 3.58 K/BB ratio (hence the comparisons) Johan Santana: 9.41 K/9 1.36 WHIP 2.63 K/BB ratio Ben Sheets: 7.43 K/9 1.26 WHIP 2.20 K/BB ratio Dontrelle Willis: 7.38 K/9 0.95 WHIP 4.32 K/BB ratio Of those, only Peavy has a better K/9, only Dontrelle has a better WHIP, and none of them have a better K/BB ratio. If anyone wants me to get comparables for any other pitcher, just tell me who. I think what this shows is that pitchers actually can improve from AAA to the majors as they mature. Certainly BMac has the opportunity to gain command of new pitches - like a cutter - and he's going to get stronger and add weight to his 6-7 frame. That could increase his pitch velocity. Thanks for the research.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Aug 3, 2005 -> 07:48 PM) *THIS IS WHY HE'D MOST LIKELY CLEAR WAIVERS* Ken Griffey Jr.'s entire contract. Ken Griffey Jr.: 9-year contract worth $116.5M 2005: $12.5M 2006: $12.5M 2007: $12.5M 2008: $12.5M 2009: $12.5M - Team Option - $4M Buyout + $5.5M of his 2000 salary is deffered through 2008 making his per year salary higher than noted. + $6.5M of 2001-2009 salaries deferred to subsequent years between 2009 and 2024 + He is currently a 10-5 player. Agent: Brian Goldberg All this for a player who has been injured almost every year since 2000 and could tear his Hamstring at anytime. His legs are especially fragile due to the nature of his hamstring injuries. Griffey is 35 right now and will be 36 by the beginning of the '06 season. No team will claim him off waivers. Based on this, what does the Reds $4.5 million contribution per year cover? I always thought his contract in the later years is more on the order of $18-19 million, but only $12.5 million of that was paid in current dollars, with the balance deferred. If that is true, would the Sox be taking on his current contract plus part of the deferred money (whatever exceeds $4.5 million/year), or $4.5 million/year LESS than his current contract and NONE of his deferred money? In either event, it seems like a deal the Sox were lucky to have blocked. Let's be real guys. The value of Griffey this year is the marginal difference between him and Carl Everett, who will presumably go to the bench if Griffey starts at DH in the ALDS. What is that worth? Something, but not all that much. Griffey has the worst zone rating of any major league CF while Rowand has one of the best, so Griffey is a serious defensive liability in the outfield at this point. So if we make it to the World Series, we will be weakening our defense to play him in the NL park. Griffey is still injury prone, so there is no assurance he would even stay healthy to make it to October this year. And for that marginal value, we are giving up a whole hell of a lot. 1. Money better spent on a healthy, younger player. 2. Chris Young, who is touted more highly than any outfield prospect we have, isn't he? Won't Chris Young be better than Ken Griffey is now soon after he makes our major league team? 3. Certainty. With Griffey's injury history, we'd have to go into every season with someone like Carl Everett backing him up in case he went down for the year. Sure, depth is fine, but that would get ridiculous, ala Cincy. Be thankful that the Griffey deal appears dead.

Over the last 2 months, Ozzie should try to find the Aaron Rowand of last year if he can. In my view that means moving him to the top of the lineup, either third or second. Iguchi would fill the other slot. That means everyone else would slide a spot. And if Dye continues to hit better than Konerko, I have no objection to flipping them, frankly.

I read on Baseball Prospectus that if they kept us their hot pace, the A's could win 97-98 games. For the Sox to get to 100, we need to go only 31-26. We ought to do better than that. So I'm not worried about the A's or anyone passing us for home field. I do think they will pass the Angels, however, leaving the Angels to fight the loser of the Yankees-BoSox and possibly the Indians for the WC slot. I expect the Angels to hold on to that spot. The result of this is likely to be the Angels coming here for the first round and the A's slugging it out with Boston or NY. If we are facing the A's in a round 2, I'm going to be happy regardless because it will mean the Sox will have won a postseason series for the first time since 1917.

I have no objection to Buehrle evening the score against the O's. But if he wanted to avoid a suspension, then he should have refrained from all the knuckle-fives he gave in the dugout as soon as he was ejected. The message wouldn't have been lost on his teammates without the celebrations, and baseball would have been hard pressed to suspend him without that evidence against him.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Aug 2, 2005 -> 09:18 PM) On Baseball Prospectus' "Similarity Index", here are a couple of the notables on the list: -Kris Honel -Brad Penny -Jerome Williams -Mike Wood -Jake Peavy -Adam Wainwright Tom Morgan is his number one comp. He pitched from '51-'63, and had a career ERA+ of 106 (100 being league average for that season). Dan Petry is another comp. He pitched in the '80s, career ERA+ of 102. Ralph Terry, finally, pitched in the 50s-60s, and also had a career ERA+ of 102. So, it seems to me that they (BP) seems to think he'll most likely be a league average pitcher (that being his floor), with the potential (ceiling) to be a pretty damn good #1 (Peavy). I've really enjoyed their free preview, so much so that I'll probably get the year's subscription. Interesting. But are they making their comparisons on the fact that he has actually pitched in the majors, if only for a few games, or is it based on his minor league numbers? Ultimately I'm willing to rely on Ozzie's own judgment, which may have been puffing, but compared him to Black Jack McDowell. If he's 80% of McDowell, he's a keeper. Since the content is free until August 3, there is no harm in posting the Baseball Prospectus analysis on McCarthy. Here's the link. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/M...7A.php#fiveyear