QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 21, 2014 -> 07:23 PM)
So this is sort of crazy.
Mike Trout is owed $144 million through 2020. If he puts up 8.5 fWAR the next few years, which is roughly what he's done the last few (higher than the last 2 but lower than his first 2) he will put up $260 million worth of value at $5 million/fWAR (probably an underestimate but an ok one). The difference between what he would be paid and what he would produce, his excess value, is $116 million.
Jose Quintana is owed $46 million through 2020. He put up 5.3 fWAR last year. If Jose Quintana puts up that same fWAR through 2020, he would be worth $159 million. The excess value Quintana Baswould produce is $113 million.
Basically, if you assume the injury/collapse risk is about equal...Right now, Jose Quintana with his contract included should have about the same value as Mike Trout.
This is not sarcastic. The excess value Quintana should produce is comparable to the excess value Mike Trout should produce through 2020.
So if you would not trade Mike Trout and his contract for some player right now, you should not trade Quintana for that same player right now. Maybe if it's close and the guy is a better fit fine, but assume no injuries and no improvement from either and wow...Quintana + his contract is disturbingly close in value to Mike Trout + his contract.
Wow... This is a pretty impressive post. Interesting way of looking at it all.