OmarComing25

Only Mitch Keller and Brock Stewart had a higher gap between their allowed wOBA and their xwOBA than Diaz, if we could somehow buy low on him I'd be all for it.

Keuchel’s FIP was nearly a run higher than his ERA, however his xwOBA nearly exactly matched his actual wOBA, which suggests his ERA is a better predictor of his performance going forward. Would anyone be disappointed with a 3.75ish ERA next season?

I think RA9 WAR is much better than bWAR to evaluate a pitcher's career. I don't like the method bWAR uses to adjust for defense. It gave Nola a full win over deGrom in 2018 despite deGrom blowing him away in actual results because DRS viewed the Phillies as a historically awful defensive team. However, even if the Phillies defense was that bad, it clearly didn't affect Nola the same way it did the team's other pitchers considering he had a .251 BABIP so giving him such a huge boost for it doesn't make any sense. RA9 works much better if you care about results on the field IMO.

I definitely phrased that poorly. I don't think it's an either or scenario and I'm willing to overpay a bit for Wheeler. Just saying that in a hypothetical where you had to choose one or the other I'll take consistent playoffs over a one and done title. Agree it doesn't have much relevance to a potential Wheeler contract though.

Just listened to the latest Statcast podcast and they had a segment about Anderson and Moncada and their BABIPs. Mentioned that they were among the highest in the history of the game (both at .403 coming into today) but then took a look at their expected BABIP based on Statcast and Anderson came out to .355 while Moncada was at .386. Said that Moncada could have the ability to sustain very high BABIPs going forward because he hits the ball so damn hard, is very fast and sprays the ball all over the field so he's impossible to shift.

I actually got banned from there in September in 2005. It was when they were in that slump and about to lose that huge lead and someone posted "Man I hate this team right now" and I responded with "I know the feeling." Mods said we were both trolls and banned forever.

Yeah inning is still going on if he wasn't sulking after hitting the popup.

I don’t consider Bumgarner a top guy anymore.

I wouldn’t be against a Hamels signing, he’s a fitness freak so the age thing might not be as much of a concern.

Injuries are part of the game though. It's not like the Warriors haven't greatly benefited from injuries in every single one of their title runs (Kyrie/Love, Kawhi, Paul).

I understand wanting a higher ceiling pick but your expectations for the third pick are too high. To add on to what Balta just said, I looked at all the #3 picks since 1980. If we cut it off at 2014 since it's the most recent year a #3 pick has made the majors then 16 of the 35 picks have had 10 or more career fWAR. Of those 16, only 3 of those you can call stars (Manny Machado, Evan Longoria, and Matt Williams) with another 2 very good players in Troy Glaus and Bobby Witt. So there's basically only a 1 in 7 chance that the #3 pick becomes a very good player and stars only come along once a decade. Vaughn doesn't need to be a top ten bat in the league for the pick to be worth it.

LOL a top 10 bat in baseball is like a 145 wRC+. You going to be disappointed if Vaughn is just a 140 wRC+ hitter?

Also wRC+ in the minors isn't park adjusted, so a 170 in that park is likely higher.

Yeah I remember actually betting on the Astros when they faced Chris Volstad and he ended up holding them to one run and the bullpen shut them down the rest of the way.

Obviously this sucks and the Bulls need all the luck they can get but of the four teams currently in the Conference Finals there’s exactly one top 5 pick playing (Durant). Brooks Lopez is the only lottery pick starter in the ECF and he was at 10. I feel like people overrate draft position.