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Everything posted by OmarComing25

  1. OmarComing25

    Last week without any baseball

    Statcast xwOBA for Moncada: 2018: .302 2019: .362 Statcast has Moncada’s xBABIP at 0.383 Interesting that it differs so much from Fangraphs' formula, but to say he hardly improved at all from 2018 seems like quite the hot take.
  2. OmarComing25

    Steve Stone: more bullpen help is coming

    Only Mitch Keller and Brock Stewart had a higher gap between their allowed wOBA and their xwOBA than Diaz, if we could somehow buy low on him I'd be all for it.
  3. Keuchel’s FIP was nearly a run higher than his ERA, however his xwOBA nearly exactly matched his actual wOBA, which suggests his ERA is a better predictor of his performance going forward. Would anyone be disappointed with a 3.75ish ERA next season?
  4. I think RA9 WAR is much better than bWAR to evaluate a pitcher's career. I don't like the method bWAR uses to adjust for defense. It gave Nola a full win over deGrom in 2018 despite deGrom blowing him away in actual results because DRS viewed the Phillies as a historically awful defensive team. However, even if the Phillies defense was that bad, it clearly didn't affect Nola the same way it did the team's other pitchers considering he had a .251 BABIP so giving him such a huge boost for it doesn't make any sense. RA9 works much better if you care about results on the field IMO.
  5. I definitely phrased that poorly. I don't think it's an either or scenario and I'm willing to overpay a bit for Wheeler. Just saying that in a hypothetical where you had to choose one or the other I'll take consistent playoffs over a one and done title. Agree it doesn't have much relevance to a potential Wheeler contract though.
  6. OmarComing25

    2019 World Series

    To be fair they tattooed a few balls with 2 outs, just hit them right at fielders.
  7. OmarComing25

    2019 World Series

    Has it really been a great World Series though? Aside from Game One every other game has been a blowout. There's been one single lead change in five games. There's been very little drama.
  8. OmarComing25


    Just listened to the latest Statcast podcast and they had a segment about Anderson and Moncada and their BABIPs. Mentioned that they were among the highest in the history of the game (both at .403 coming into today) but then took a look at their expected BABIP based on Statcast and Anderson came out to .355 while Moncada was at .386. Said that Moncada could have the ability to sustain very high BABIPs going forward because he hits the ball so damn hard, is very fast and sprays the ball all over the field so he's impossible to shift.
  9. OmarComing25


    I actually got banned from there in September in 2005. It was when they were in that slump and about to lose that huge lead and someone posted "Man I hate this team right now" and I responded with "I know the feeling." Mods said we were both trolls and banned forever.
  10. OmarComing25

    Cubs thread 2k19

    I’ve never seen a baseball team be so night and day at home and on the road, they are unbeatable at Wrigley but look like they should be competing for a Top 5 pick on the road.
  11. OmarComing25

    Which current day players are HOF bound?

    I'd put Greinke on the fringe case list Votto as well
  12. OmarComing25

    GT Chicago v Chicago, 6/18/19, 7:05 CT

    Yeah inning is still going on if he wasn't sulking after hitting the popup.
  13. OmarComing25

    GT Chicago v Chicago, 6/18/19, 7:05 CT

    I don’t consider Bumgarner a top guy anymore.
  14. OmarComing25

    GT Chicago v Chicago, 6/18/19, 7:05 CT

    I wouldn’t be against a Hamels signing, he’s a fitness freak so the age thing might not be as much of a concern.
  15. OmarComing25

    2018-2019 Official NBA thread

    Injuries are part of the game though. It's not like the Warriors haven't greatly benefited from injuries in every single one of their title runs (Kyrie/Love, Kawhi, Paul).
  16. OmarComing25

    ***Day 1 MLB Draft Thread***

    I understand wanting a higher ceiling pick but your expectations for the third pick are too high. To add on to what Balta just said, I looked at all the #3 picks since 1980. If we cut it off at 2014 since it's the most recent year a #3 pick has made the majors then 16 of the 35 picks have had 10 or more career fWAR. Of those 16, only 3 of those you can call stars (Manny Machado, Evan Longoria, and Matt Williams) with another 2 very good players in Troy Glaus and Bobby Witt. So there's basically only a 1 in 7 chance that the #3 pick becomes a very good player and stars only come along once a decade. Vaughn doesn't need to be a top ten bat in the league for the pick to be worth it.
  17. OmarComing25

    ***Day 1 MLB Draft Thread***

    LOL a top 10 bat in baseball is like a 145 wRC+. You going to be disappointed if Vaughn is just a 140 wRC+ hitter?
  18. OmarComing25

    05/29 Games #CeaseDay

    Also wRC+ in the minors isn't park adjusted, so a 170 in that park is likely higher.
  19. OmarComing25

    Sox and Stros 7:10 Central

    Yeah I remember actually betting on the Astros when they faced Chris Volstad and he ended up holding them to one run and the bullpen shut them down the rest of the way.
  20. OmarComing25

    2019 MLB Catch All thread

    Something like this? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  21. OmarComing25

    2018-2019 Official NBA thread

    Obviously this sucks and the Bulls need all the luck they can get but of the four teams currently in the Conference Finals there’s exactly one top 5 pick playing (Durant). Brooks Lopez is the only lottery pick starter in the ECF and he was at 10. I feel like people overrate draft position.
  22. OmarComing25

    Game of Thrones

    Someone on the ASOIAF subreddit said the original plan was to have Rhaegal killed during the ringing of the bells and have Dany snap after that but they decided Episode 4 needed more shock value. That would have been far better than what happened.
  23. OmarComing25

    And that's a White Sox Giolito Gem Winner!

    I mean go to any team’s forum and they all act the same, regardless of recent success. It’s definitely the nature of the internet. Go to the Cubs subreddit after they have a 2 game losing streak, half the sub is ready to jump off the ledge. Despite winning the title last year a bunch of the Red Sox subreddit want to hang themselves after the slow start. Happiness seems fleeting in general in sports fandom.
  24. OmarComing25

    Game of Thrones

    It's not like the ballistas can shoot straight up, just dive bomb them, attack at night and burn them all, how are they going to stop that?
  25. It also can't be a coincidence that so many players have their career worst years here and then go on to other teams and still be useful players.