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Two-Gun Pete

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Two-Gun Pete last won the day on September 22 2018

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About Two-Gun Pete

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    Winston-Salem (High A)

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    Kannapolis Intimidators (Low-A)
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    Best Sox Forum ON THE PLANET!
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    Nicky Delmonico
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    Seby Zavala
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  1. Two-Gun Pete

    Hats off to the Front Office

    Nah, arguing the top guys (Cole/Strasburg/Rendon) or even Wheeler vs Keuchel really is a canard. And to be honest, not really worth discussing; of course we'd all prefer the top FA targets over lesser ones. I dont much disagree with signing Keuchel, as this rotation needed quality starts and leadership almost as much as it needed top end talent. I would have preferred Porcello over Gonzalez, only to the point that I think Porcello will be a better pitcher going forward. And, his Cy Young and WS ring would have added more leadership to the pitching staff. But, I think Gonzalez may have been chosen for his experience as both a SP and RP, so that he can move to the Pen when Kopech arrives. On Mazara, I'm not convinced about his defense, which is not "nothing." (Particularly when there's already a butcher in LF.) I also wonder about having to bet on both him AND Robert's rookie season AND Eloy avoiding a sophomore slump all simultaneously. I think I would have preferred Puig over Mazara. I like Encarnacion's bat, but all the questionable gloves among the OFers means that Engel and his turd of a bat will start ~60 or more games next year. (Dont talk to me about Engel's garbage time heroics hitting in 2019 with the juiced ball; I dont buy into those results.)
  2. Two-Gun Pete

    Hats off to the Front Office

    I've been critical of this front office for awhile. But I believe that they've earned every last morsel of ridicule and critique they've gotten over the past ~8 or so years. That said, I have to compliment this front office for stepping outside their safety zone to make the improvements they've made this offseason. Well done, RH and KW and JR. For my part, I would have preferred a few different moves than some that were made, but at least they've made a reasoned approach to this offseason.
  3. Two-Gun Pete

    ****Some Observations including Sabermetrics

    This thread needs more italics like the song "Don't Fear The Reaper" needs more cowbell.
  4. Two-Gun Pete

    FA SP: What to do after the Wheeler miss?

    This may be true. But go ahead and look at Spotrac's Market Value. They address many of the ideas you pose here. Their takeaway is that Ryu and Boras aren't going for 3/70.
  5. Two-Gun Pete

    FA SP: What to do after the Wheeler miss?

    I'm not arguing for a discount. And I agree that paying whatever it takes to get the player they want would be the better way to go. Im arguing against those that post the idea that Ryu could/would take 3/$70MM, when Darvish got 6/$126MM.
  6. Two-Gun Pete

    FA SP: What to do after the Wheeler miss?

    Jack, you're entirely misreading the core of that post. I am not "mad at Boras." I am merely reinforcing the very real idea that none of Rye/Keuchel/Bumgarner are going to accept a measly contract offer. I am trying to combat the irrational exuberance that some are placing on FS SP contracts. IOW, Boras ain't gonna give any discounts. Period.
  7. Two-Gun Pete

    Sox and Sawks to see if the Price is Right

    In what way have those morons shown any ability to learn anything? In what way have they shown a willingness to do things differently? What I'm guessing is that they'll undervalue SP contracts, and wonder why they can't get Ryu for 3/$45MM. Then they'll get desperate, and bail out the sawx while stupidly giving away value. I hope I'm wrong.
  8. Two-Gun Pete

    Sox and Sawks to see if the Price is Right

    If I had to guess, the sawx FO is waiting for KW/RH to get desperate and stoopid. The sawx had to see how KW/RH stupidly gave away valuable pieces for Shields and Samardzjia, and are waiting to rip off the SOX. I hate the idea of these imbeciles making a trade, particularly given their rich history of abject failure in this area.
  9. Two-Gun Pete

    FA SP: What to do after the Wheeler miss?

    If you look at spotrac's methodology, it really looks akin to an appraisal on a house. That is, they looked at comparable players and their FA contracts, just as an appraiser looks at similar properties to the one you want to buy. So, look at Ryu, and look at Darvish's contract. Darvish got 6/$126MM at only 1 year younger than Ryu just 2 years ago. Ryu (and his greedy agent) would have to anticipate 4 or 5 years, at or above $100MM. Otherwise, it would be a steep discount in years or salary by comparison. I think Spotrac was pretty on point on Wheeler's deal, as well as other deals since then. So, either JR, et al accept that Fa SPs cost what they cost, OR, they repeat the same mistakes of yesteryear. (Possibly leading to an inferior on-field product.)
  10. Two-Gun Pete

    FA SP: What to do after the Wheeler miss?

    I’m seeing what looks like some irrational exuberance for what SP FAs will go for. I thought that many posters vastly underestimated what Wheeler and others would sign for. I think it would inform the discussion to try to make an attempt to get more clarity on this issue. For this, I turn to Spotrac, which was pretty accurate for at least one data point. Zack Wheeler’s Market Value: $23.4MM/yr *4years = $93.8MM. He got $118MM/5 years for ~$23.6MM/per. Had the rumored Sox offer been $125MM/5 years, it would have been $25MM/per. Zack Wheeler Market Value on Spotrac Some of the other SP FAs are pretty interesting as well: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Market Value: $27.6MM/yr * 4 years = $110.4MM. Ryu's Market Value on Spotrac Dallas Keuchel’s Market Value: $20.7MM/yr * 4 years = $103.6MM. Keuchel's Market Value on Spotrac Madison Bumgarner’s Market Value: $21.1MM/yr *5 years = $105.6MM. Bumgarner's Market Value on Spotrac Now, I’ll grant that this is just one source. But, as opposed to a sportwriter’s/insider’s “opinion,” what impresses me about Spotrac is that they actually make an effort to “show their work,” inasmuch as a word problem in 4th Grade math class. I think they were pretty spot-on with Wheeler, though the competitive market between us and Philly made it possible for him to achieve that 5th contracted year. Given the pitchers in question, and their agents, I think it is entirely possible that all three SPs in question just might get >$100MM and 4 or more years. I think this is especially true for the Borasshole clients in Ryu and Keuchel.
  11. I actually view it differently than you. I dont think they're in stealth mode at all. I think the longer this goes, the worse our chances are with Wheeler. I think some other team either outbid us, or this team dithers about while another team swoops in to land Wheeler. I think Jerry, et. Al still have the fear of longer-term pitching contracts. I really hope I'm wrong, and Wheeler is in our rotation in 2020. Prove me wrong, Jerry.
  12. Two-Gun Pete

    Zack Wheeler Thread

    I think the dropoff in the FA market is AFTER Bumgarner/Wheeler. Those two have similar numbers, although I understand Wheeler's velo has been higher. I prefer Bumgarner, as he's a lefty who has won. This is a rotation that needs veteran leadership, and an example of success to emulate. Id also like a LH starter in a day and age when the LOOGY will be de-emphasized, due to the 3-hutter rule. That said, if its Wheeler, I'd be happy. I believe it is essential for this rebuild to acquire one of Cole/Strasburg/Wheeler/Bumgarner. What I definitely DONT want is Keuchel or Ryu as the "headliner" SP acquisition. I dont trust Keuchel being good anymore, and Ryu is made of glass. Him hitting is a non-factor, IMO. Like it or not, the NL will get the DH in the next CBA. There aren't any more holdouts among the NL clubs on this issue. It opens up more jobs for the players, and the owners no longer want the additional injury risk to expensive SPs. Now, should he prefer the left coast, so be it. That simply means he isn't a candidate to sign here.
  13. Two-Gun Pete

    Sox in on Marcell Ozuna? I mean, maybe. Or not.

    Wait, aren't your "ideal" and "mediocre" solutions the same thing, just stated in different order? That aside, squandering money to buy high on a statue that can't catch a cold in Castellanos is a bad idea, IMO. (Never mind that he's a Boras client, and chasing him could cause us to miss out on other options while Boras uses us for leverage.) Similarly, trading from a soon-to-be barren system also seems to be a bad idea. Were it me, I'd prefer either a cheaper gamble on Puig/Avi, or sign Akiyama to play CF and shift Robert to play RF. Either solution is a gamble. But neither would be crippling to other future moves to add or to extend extant players, IMO.
  14. Two-Gun Pete

    Zack Wheeler Thread

    What do you make of this: Wheeler's Market Value, According to Spotrac His numbers and age are eerily similar to Corbin's. I think he might get $100MM/4, and perhaps more than that.
  15. Two-Gun Pete

    Return of Samardzija?

    ~$18MM for a geezing geezer whose xFIP in a cavernous NL park was >5? Holy fucking shit, is this rumor stupid. Now, IF SFG were to pick up $12MM of his one remaining season, and take a crappy low-level token like Korey Zangari in trade, fine.
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