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Two-Gun Pete

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Everything posted by Two-Gun Pete

  1. Two-Gun Pete

    FA SP: What to do after the Wheeler miss?

    I’m seeing what looks like some irrational exuberance for what SP FAs will go for. I thought that many posters vastly underestimated what Wheeler and others would sign for. I think it would inform the discussion to try to make an attempt to get more clarity on this issue. For this, I turn to Spotrac, which was pretty accurate for at least one data point. Zack Wheeler’s Market Value: $23.4MM/yr *4years = $93.8MM. He got $118MM/5 years for ~$23.6MM/per. Had the rumored Sox offer been $125MM/5 years, it would have been $25MM/per. Zack Wheeler Market Value on Spotrac Some of the other SP FAs are pretty interesting as well: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Market Value: $27.6MM/yr * 4 years = $110.4MM. Ryu's Market Value on Spotrac Dallas Keuchel’s Market Value: $20.7MM/yr * 4 years = $103.6MM. Keuchel's Market Value on Spotrac Madison Bumgarner’s Market Value: $21.1MM/yr *5 years = $105.6MM. Bumgarner's Market Value on Spotrac Now, I’ll grant that this is just one source. But, as opposed to a sportwriter’s/insider’s “opinion,” what impresses me about Spotrac is that they actually make an effort to “show their work,” inasmuch as a word problem in 4th Grade math class. I think they were pretty spot-on with Wheeler, though the competitive market between us and Philly made it possible for him to achieve that 5th contracted year. Given the pitchers in question, and their agents, I think it is entirely possible that all three SPs in question just might get >$100MM and 4 or more years. I think this is especially true for the Borasshole clients in Ryu and Keuchel.
  2. I actually view it differently than you. I dont think they're in stealth mode at all. I think the longer this goes, the worse our chances are with Wheeler. I think some other team either outbid us, or this team dithers about while another team swoops in to land Wheeler. I think Jerry, et. Al still have the fear of longer-term pitching contracts. I really hope I'm wrong, and Wheeler is in our rotation in 2020. Prove me wrong, Jerry.
  3. Two-Gun Pete

    Zack Wheeler Thread

    I think the dropoff in the FA market is AFTER Bumgarner/Wheeler. Those two have similar numbers, although I understand Wheeler's velo has been higher. I prefer Bumgarner, as he's a lefty who has won. This is a rotation that needs veteran leadership, and an example of success to emulate. Id also like a LH starter in a day and age when the LOOGY will be de-emphasized, due to the 3-hutter rule. That said, if its Wheeler, I'd be happy. I believe it is essential for this rebuild to acquire one of Cole/Strasburg/Wheeler/Bumgarner. What I definitely DONT want is Keuchel or Ryu as the "headliner" SP acquisition. I dont trust Keuchel being good anymore, and Ryu is made of glass. Him hitting is a non-factor, IMO. Like it or not, the NL will get the DH in the next CBA. There aren't any more holdouts among the NL clubs on this issue. It opens up more jobs for the players, and the owners no longer want the additional injury risk to expensive SPs. Now, should he prefer the left coast, so be it. That simply means he isn't a candidate to sign here.
  4. Two-Gun Pete

    Sox in on Marcell Ozuna? I mean, maybe. Or not.

    Wait, aren't your "ideal" and "mediocre" solutions the same thing, just stated in different order? That aside, squandering money to buy high on a statue that can't catch a cold in Castellanos is a bad idea, IMO. (Never mind that he's a Boras client, and chasing him could cause us to miss out on other options while Boras uses us for leverage.) Similarly, trading from a soon-to-be barren system also seems to be a bad idea. Were it me, I'd prefer either a cheaper gamble on Puig/Avi, or sign Akiyama to play CF and shift Robert to play RF. Either solution is a gamble. But neither would be crippling to other future moves to add or to extend extant players, IMO.
  5. Two-Gun Pete

    Zack Wheeler Thread

    What do you make of this: Wheeler's Market Value, According to Spotrac His numbers and age are eerily similar to Corbin's. I think he might get $100MM/4, and perhaps more than that.
  6. Two-Gun Pete

    Return of Samardzija?

    ~$18MM for a geezing geezer whose xFIP in a cavernous NL park was >5? Holy fucking shit, is this rumor stupid. Now, IF SFG were to pick up $12MM of his one remaining season, and take a crappy low-level token like Korey Zangari in trade, fine.
  7. Two-Gun Pete

    Grandal - Early Off-Season Speculation

    I've posted this before in other thread during this offseason. I'd look for a bridge signing to a future solution, or an affordable gamble, while preserving as much money as possible for this relatively deep pitching FA class. I believe it is ESSENTIAL that this team acquire one of the top 4 SP FA. I would also avoid making stupid trades for mere incremental improvement; that's what I saw in the moronic Samardzjia and Shields trades. IMO, that's exactly what a trade for a platoon player in Pederson would be, or a gamble on a one-year wonder like Nimmo. I would preserve as much trade capital as possible for the inevitable fire sales that other teams will have every year. (The last time the Sox did this was Robin's first year as manager; the FO picked up Youkilis and others for the playoff chase for cheap prices.) That said, my previous post was trying to get someone to convince me that trading from a soon-to-be empty farm system was a better idea than the moronic Samardzija and Shields trades. Or, that having two shitty OFers in the field, while overspending/buying high on a statue was a good idea. So far, no one has come up with cogent support for either of these ideas, IMO. So, when none of the solutions that are available are ideal, you buy a cheap one. Especially if your budget is in any way limited. To my view, that means either of Avi or Puig; I'd prefer Puig.
  8. Two-Gun Pete

    Grandal - Early Off-Season Speculation

    So, let me get this straight: Posters want to trade from a soon-to-be ~20th or so ranked system (once Robert/Madrigal arrive) for a platoon player w/1 year of control in Pederson, Or Buy high on a butcher in Castellanos whose improvement at the bat can largely be explained by the juiced ball in 2019. (See league average ops in 2019 vs 2018: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml ) Are these really the best solutions for RF at this point?
  9. Two-Gun Pete

    Trade Candidates: Hitters

    So, from the SOX standpoint, 2-3 of these prospects kills any sort of depth, and makes it all but impossible to make a "finishing touch" trade later. [i.e. a Chapman to scrubs-type move to complete a playoff run.] From the standpoint of another team, they'd be looking at a "pile of mediocrity for your good player" type of trade. How does Theo sell a Schwarber for Dunning/Micker/Sheets deal to his fanbase, for example? I don't think I'm convinced that a "Buy" trade [at THIS point] makes sense for a shallow system that could be ranked in the ~20s, once Robert and Madrigal arrive. That said, if/when some of the injured or less-effective prospects get healthy and re-establish their prospect value [such as in midseason this year], a "Buy" trade could make more sense. At the same time, when a projected contender surprisingly falls out of contention, and has to SELL, keeping "the powder dry" for such an opportunity could bear fruit for the SOX, IMO.
  10. Two-Gun Pete

    Trade Candidates: Hitters

    How about first listing trade assets that THIS org has that won't scupper this rebuild? I'm skeptical about the depth of this system, such that a trade may well kill whatever depth this org may have.
  11. Two-Gun Pete

    NFL Thread 2019-2020

    Yeah, so-called "offensive geniuses" just have to abandon the run at the earliest possible moment. I'm certain Nagy and others will use this game vs. a shitty defense as evidence of this so-called system as being legit.
  12. Two-Gun Pete

    Predict the Market: FA Contracts

    I'm curious why you believe this. My view is that, for better or worse, Puig is at least a RFer, not a LFer. And, he wouldn't cost any (scant) trade resources. If others are more correct as to his price than Spotrac and I believe his market to be, why in God's name wouldn't the Reinsdorfs be in on that? Also, one other thing I note about this thread: Almost ALL of us believe Wheeler to be the better, younger, more ascendant, and with fewer IP SP than Bumgarner. Almost ALL of us believe that there will be a large degree of interest in Wheeler. Yet, almost all of the predictions posted here project Bumgarner to get a larger contract/more years than Wheeler. Is this wishful thinking on the part of posters here? I see the opposite, in all honesty. I believe Wheeler will get the Cobin contract+, while Bumgarner will get less $/fewer years.
  13. Two-Gun Pete

    A Realistic Offseason

    1. I see Cole/Strasburg as being the cream of the crop. They're not coming here. (See last offseasons as a predictor of this offseason.) I see Wheeler to be better than Bum, but he'll get too much money and too many years for the Reinsdorfs. On the other hand, I see Ryu/Odorizzi/Keuchel as being inferior to Bumgarner. To me, that makes Bumgarner the right player at Reinsdorf's price range. 2. DH is one area where a cheap gamble could work. If it doesn't, then a trade in midseason could fix a Tsutsugoh signing. 3. I think Ozuna returns to st Louis, and he's a LFer, not a RFer. Puig isn't an ideal solution, so much as a "realistic" solution. What's more, we don't know who will be available next offseason, and at what price. If this hole in RF isn't solved this year, we could be right back in the same predicament next offseason.
  14. Two-Gun Pete

    A Realistic Offseason

    On Puig, he only played 125 games in 2018, and split time between 2 teams in 2019. He's not an "ideal solution" for RF. But, trading away scant resources for Nimmo, or hoping/praying for anything from the farm, or signing lesser options as a bridge to God knows what for 2021 don't seem to be good options. At least to my view. The dollar amount is definitely too high for what he likely is at this point. But, given that he's probably the best option for this and next offseasons, you (over)pay for what's available now. Or you squint and hope that lesser players surprise you. Or re-sign Avi. On Bumgarner, he's a "signability" choice, IMO. Cole and Strasburg aren't coming here, full stop. I believe Wheeler's market will price him out of the Reinsdorfs comfort zone. Bumgarner's team is tapped out, and about to go into a rebuild. And yes, he's likely in decline at this point. But, IMO, he's the best option/most signable of what's left after Cole, Strasburg, and Wheeler.
  15. Two-Gun Pete

    A Realistic Offseason

    OK, How about this for a “realistic offseason:” 1. Madison Bumgarner 5/$110MM. He’s a LHP with championship experience. The SFG are salary-fucked, what with their Samardzia/Cueto/Longoria/Posey contracts. Their team is getting old, bad, and won’t sniff the top of that division for years. Their local media are assuming he’d be OK with 3/$60MM or 4/$80MM; Spotrac has his market value at 5/$105MM. 2. Yasiel Puig 4/$72MM. Yes, he’s RH. Yes, he’s had his differences with Bumgarner and Abreu. Yes, he’s had his effort questioned at times. He’s also 28, and an actual RFer. Spotrac has his market value at 3/$53MM, but there simply aren't any other RFers available in FA this year. 3. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 2/$4MM. Here, the Chicago Reinsdorfs get to exercise their “thrifty” side, and bring in a LH DH on the cheap. I would have preferred Yanagita, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be posted. 4. Jose Abreu 2/$30MM. He’s going to be here anyway, whether Ron likes it or not. 5. Shelby Miller or some other veteran bum 1/$2MM + an option. [Shrugs.] Eat them innings until Kopech shows up, I guess. I’m guessing the salaries add up to: $70MM existing + $22MM + $18MM + $2MM + $15MM + $2MM = $129MM-ish on OD. My working hypothesis is that no Boras client will come here. I also think that Wheeler's market will be too rich for the Reinsdorfs. I also think that with a top-heavy/shallow system, any trades to spruce up the roster, and/or close any holes, and/or repair any underperformances by the five so mentioned above will have to come AFTER the injured/underperforming pieces in MiLB get healthy and re-establish their prospect value. [Edit] Carry on...
  16. Two-Gun Pete

    Zack Wheeler Thread

    3. His bat looks like it's in an age-related decline.
  17. Two-Gun Pete

    A Realistic Offseason

    Yeah, we may not see another 26 year old FA stud available in a year where the big spenders are out of the bidding for decades. Every FA option currently available is either an inferior player to Machado or Harper or aging out of their prime, or unlikely to sign here. So yes, "the money's still there," but none of the goods available at market are quite as good as a year ago.
  18. Two-Gun Pete

    A Realistic Offseason

    I think that's a fair thought. However, JDM's wrc+ in 2017 was similar to 2018. (Recall that he didn't have a spring training in 17.) So, I don't think it was simply an artificially good 2018, I think it's more about a natural aging curve. I feel like we've seen this movie before with Dunn and other aging DH types being brought in via FA. And this is the other angle. Who does he block as he ages?
  19. Two-Gun Pete

    A Realistic Offseason

    Except that, after another ~11.5% drop, the .557 slg% JDM enjoyed in the juiced ball season of 2019 plummets to a less-thrilling .493. (For reference, Abreu slugged .503 in 2019.) What if the ball is less lively in 2020? What if JDM's back problems persist? How much further will his slugging and wrc+ drop? Given the kind of contract he's rumored to want, and his asshole of an agent, are we sure we want to sign a 32 year old statue? I'm not too sure.
  20. Two-Gun Pete

    A Realistic Offseason

    This is probably true. It also doesn't give me a good feeling about JDM being able to stave off Father Time as he ages. We'll have to wait and see.
  21. Two-Gun Pete

    A Realistic Offseason

    I thought then, and I still think now that it was necessary to land one of Machado/Harper a year ago. (I would still take either one of them now, even after their predictable mixed results in 2019.) I think it's absolutely ESSENTIAL to land a top SP. I think its essential for the rebuild. I think its essential to restore credibility with the fans, the media, and with future prospective FA. Having said that, I'm mentally prepared for this front office to shit their pants again. As usual. I hope I'm wrong.
  22. Two-Gun Pete

    A Realistic Offseason

    I think there's a chance that JDM's decline in slugging % in a live ball 2019 may be problematic. After all, Father Time is undefeated, and he is a 32 year old statue who experienced an ~11.5% drop in slugging [.557 from .629] in a year where the league-average slugging % went up. I don't disagree that he had been a great hitter, in the past. Will he still be in 2021 as a 34 year old statue, when this club may be ready to compete? Who knows. Regardless, I don't see this club signing him, given his age/cost/agent and this org's thriftiness. But, this may be a situation where he may be in decline as this team is hoping to be climbing into contention.
  23. Two-Gun Pete

    NFL Thread 2019-2020

    Well, wikipedia says you're wrong. Two 3rd rounders > 1 5th rounder.
  24. Two-Gun Pete

    NFL Thread 2019-2020

    First, thanks for agreeing that Trubisky, while definitely an NFL-caliber QB, has shown nothing since the draft to have proved to be worth trading away 2 3rd rounders and a 4th, to move up 1 spot. Second, where are you getting the idea of "overpaid by a 5th round pick" from? Here are the facts, from wikipedia: "The Bears moved up from the third overall pick by trading the San Francisco 49ers two third-round picks and a fourth-round pick.[29][30]" Trubisky on wikipedia
  25. Two-Gun Pete

    NFL Thread 2019-2020

    Ok, I'll bite: 1. Did you think on draft day that there was any valid reason to trade up for Mitch Trubisky? 2. Have you seen anything in the intervening years to convince you that it was a good idea since then? 3. The bears traded away two 3rd round picks, & a 4th round pick, NOT a 5th rounder. Before you say, "that's not much," I'll tell you that a 4th rounder probably could have secured Robbie Gould in trade last season. (And thus, he could have been kicking in the playoff game last season. )
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