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Two-Gun Pete

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Everything posted by Two-Gun Pete

  1. Two-Gun Pete

    Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

    QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 07:43 PM) Future Rotation: Rodon Giolito Fulmer Kopech Hansen =Profit As an aside, how many more years of control do the Sox have on Rodon before his agent gets him to sign elsewhere in FA?
  2. Two-Gun Pete

    Red Sox acquire Chris Sale, White Sox get Moncada+

    QUOTE (Flash Tizzle @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 11:00 PM) Now I have to think Shields being here to eat innings is huge. Hahn still isn't off the hook for trading an intruiging prospect for him, but since he's unmovable, he can go 7+ innings every.....damn....start now "Big Game" James should be the Opening Day starter... Just to make this team's tanking intentions perfectly clear. By the time this firesale is over, this could be a 120 game losing team.
  3. Two-Gun Pete

    Red Sox acquire Chris Sale, White Sox get Moncada+

    QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 09:10 PM) What's to worry about though? We've proven we're not winning with Chris. QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 09:14 PM) Keep in mind that the Sox weren't winning with Sale under the teams current construction and weren't going to win anything over the next three years. Keeping Sale for the next three years wasn't going to help the team rebuild or replenish the farm. Given the cavalcade of bad decisions in virtually every aspect of baseball operations by this front office over the past ~decade, I think its fair to be concerned about the outcome of this trade. This front office has earned, and RE-earned every bit of critique, scorn, and ridicule that they've been given. This move is bittersweet, in that a pile of dumb moves over the past decade or so painted this team into a corner. Having to trade away the best White Sox pitcher any of us have seen in our lifetimes is the fruit of all those dumb decisions.
  4. QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 12:38 AM) So because you prefer the OTHER pairing of top 2 prospects (which aren't even available to us), therefor Giolito and Robles are s***? I'm convinced you are going to hate to trade no matter what the outcome is, because you hate the Nats 2 best prospects. I have a prejudice against subjective rankings of players, particularly those with even the slightest hint of failure in the low minors. I also have a prejudice against pre-injured pitchers. We've all seen top prospects fail, and we've all been deceived by "tools" in a prospect. I'm also suspicious about why these guys are available, and I also don't believe that they represent enough of a premium to pay for proven performance in a player with ~$150MM+ in surplus value. All taken together, I don't like this trade being centered around these two.
  5. QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 12:30 AM) I would be so pumped as a Nats fan what a no brainer steal of a deal. QUOTE (Real @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 12:35 AM) For Sale, you basically need to make the team trading for him feel as if they still lost something. Yeah their prospects are ranked highly but those are still subjective rankings on PROSPECTS. Sale is already known to be: Elite, and Cheap These two posts express my sentiment, without the cursing. With prospects, there is still a clear and present danger of busting out, or of injuries stopping a career before it gets going. (Especially, given what we've seen in the Nats two prospects.) Thus, a premium would have to be paid in order to get the proven product. That aside, if I were a Nats fan, I would be stoked about robbing the stupid white sox if the shoe were on the other foot. I'll fully admit that perhaps I place a greater importance on a prospect's numbers than I should. But then, we've all seen top 10 prospects bust out; these rankings are subjective, and for that, I believe we can place too much faith in a prospect's rankng.
  6. QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 12:19 AM) Before you hurl yourself off the Dan-Ryan, just know only 2 other teams can provide a base package of TWO top 10 prospects in all of baseball. Nats - Giolito #3, Robles #10 Red Sox - Moncada #1, Benintendi #5 Pirates - Glasnow #8, Meadows #9 This isn't some s*** package, halfway through the rumored offering. Of the three, the Nats pair have the most downside risk, given Robles' relative distance from The Show, and Giolito's injury history. We're talking about trading away Chris Sale, not some average Joe. Take the Shelby Miller return, and add more to that ti get to a starting point. Anything less is an insult.
  7. QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 12:16 AM) Real talk, but can anyone name a single trade where a team got two top 10-15 prospects? There's only been a handful of these guys moved in the past decade, so I seriously doubt it's ever happened. Therefore, getting two top 10-15 prospects would pretty much be unprecedented. And despite that, people b**** these guys aren't appropriate centerpieces. This is a fair question, but at the same time, can anyone point out a 4-5 WAR SP being traded in his age 28 season, with 3 years of control and $150MM+ in surplus value? There is still a premium to be paid by the Nats, even if you trust that a prospect with a.741 OPS isn't actually a suspect. We can agree, that trading Sale is every bit as unprecedented as is shipping more than 1 top 10 out the door.
  8. QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 12:10 AM) The scouting reports on the player pages are outdated, back when Kiley was doing lists. Don't bother with them. Robles' stock has skyrocketed. QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 12:10 AM) Those grades were given by Kylie McDaniel almost 2 years ago. No idea why Fangraphs still uses them if they don't get updated. EDIT: It even says right above the grades, "Reported January 2015" I do see that now. However, he still only put up a .741 OPS in his 3rd MiLB season, which does not scream "franchise altering" in the least. I still hate this as a suggested return for a Cy Young contender, particularly give his age and surplus value.
  9. QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 12:02 AM) http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katoh-proje...nals-prospects/ Where are you seeing 40? It says 60+ here. Your link was from before the 2016 season; his player page has his FV as 40. At the end of the day, if these two are the "centerpiece" of a trade for Sale, then Id say that this suggested trade is hardly "franchise altering."
  10. QUOTE (Ro Da Don @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 11:53 PM) Holy s***. Mind blown. "Sucking out loud" in a handful of Major League starts at age 21 really makes players super sh*** these days. Read a damn scouting report on Robles then report back to us. Fangraphs has his FV as all of 40, largely owing to his hit tool being judged as being below average. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF In other words, his FV is roughly equivalent to Charlie Tilson. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-pros...cago-white-sox/
  11. QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 11:44 PM) We should totally just do what we have been doing. That has worked out so well. Keep running into that wall. Eventually it will move. Or, better yet:change the people making the decisions, FIRST, and THEN, let a better, smarter front office make better and smarter decisions. Remember, kids: Kenny Williams completed high school before the advent of "No Pass, No Play" Laws in California. Kenny Williams got into Stanford before the advent of Proposition 48, and then only bothered to stay for 1 semester... Just something to think about when evaluating this front office's results.
  12. QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 11:33 PM) Haha completely over the top but I love it Reminds me of something one of the national reporters said a few years back. Want to say it was Keith Law, that 29 fanbases way over value their own teams talent. And then there's White Sox fans who do just the opposite. I do get that vibe in this thread. Yup. We were promised a return that would "blow us away." f*** Giolito's subjective "ranking," maybe him sucking out loud (in the little boy NL, mind you) is why he's available. And maybe Robles' measly .741 OPS in his third professional season is why the Nats want to sucker this front office. QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 11:34 PM) Pointless to get upset over fictional returns on trades that haven't occurred yet. Plenty of time to light your torches. Sounds good, I'll get the gasoline ready, you get the oily rags.
  13. QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 11:30 PM) You sound angry / the deal hasn't happened. No way it's just Giolito and Robles, and that's still a good start. We've been discussing how a trade for Sale would be "franchise altering," and how it would "hurt" the team who traded for Sale. To me, neither of these things are in evidence for a TJS survivor and a sub .800 OPS hitter in A+. QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 11:30 PM) Dude, it is 2 of the top 10 prospects in the game. If it's just those two, I'd be very disappointed, but it's not going to be. Calm yourself. You know what? A prospect's subjective ranking is only one data point. A player's craptacular results are another. Why do posters want this front office to be responsible for a rebuild, again?
  14. Holy s***. A post-TJS pitcher who sucked out loud in his MLB debut, and a sub .800 OPS in A+ bat is the centerpiece of a supposed "franchise altering return?" After seeing what Shelby f***ing Miller cost, the domestic abuser Chapman cost, and what Andrew Miller cost, this proposed deal is a f***ing insult to SOX fans. You've got to be f***ing kidding me. Unless there are significant additions to this deal, we should be disgusted as fans.
  15. Two-Gun Pete

    Baseball America Sox Top 10

    QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 21, 2016 -> 03:59 PM) I agree that a sky-high strikeout rate is a huge cause for concern and normally to me means the player should not be promoted, but let us not forget that Kris Bryant of all people struck out at a 29% clip in AAA and just slightly less in A and AA, both at a much later age and with more high-level experience. He then struck out 31% as a MLB rookie. In our system, the rare example of a player who came in the system with major strikeout problems who eventually ironed them out is Trayce Thompson. On Bryant, he also had/has a high walk rate, and ACTUAL, in-game power. None of the high K bums (Barnum, Adolfo, and possibly, Zangari) have a high walk rate. So really, he's nothing like Adolfo, who Ks a lot, is allergic to walks, and only shows power in batting practice.( You know, the type of player this front office has stupidly chased for years.) On Thompson, I think the Sox rightly sold high on him, and his drop in Ks in 2015 looks like a statistical outlier. (He went right back to a 25% K rate in LA after his career year in 2015 with the Sox.) So, Thompson actually shows that most hitters don't actually learn to "make more contact," and/or "learn to strike out less," IMO.
  16. Two-Gun Pete

    Baseball America Sox Top 10

    QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 11, 2016 -> 03:37 PM) I just think you are giving up on the guy far too early. 3 years, ages 17-19 after skipping DSL and not having the benefits that US prospects do, is not much. No one is saying he's a T100 guy, but he's certainly a prospect. At those levels and ages, tools should be the far-dominant angle, with numbers on the small end of importance. That balance shifts as they move up and age. I can disagree while being agreeable. That said, without an ability to hit/get on base, he has scant chance to utilize whatever tools he has. And thus, he has scant chance to advance successfully. If you'd like to consider him a prospect, that's OK. But the players who have/may have an MLB-caliber ability to get on base are much more compelling, IMO. QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 11, 2016 -> 03:37 PM) And I should note, I am not at all defending the Sox org in terms of hitter development. It's been very bad. Not saying otherwise. Ya know, after a decade or so of watching this team utterly fail at developing position players, I started to wonder why. [And wonder why this front office didn't do anything about it.] Then, the Sox's 2016 draft happened, with it's focus on OBP, and voila! Half the Top 10 prospects, just by re-focusing the scouting on the appropriate thing. I then considered [subjectively] many of the former farmhands of recent vintage that have had any success in The Bigs, and most of them had something of a hit tool [semien, Micah Johnson], or at least hit well enough for his position, such as Phegley. On the other hand, for the cavalcade of abject failures of current/former Sox prospects, few, if any were noted for their HIT tool. It seemed as though they'd be lauded for "Raw Power," or "Speed," or "Athleticism," and then they'd predictably bust. Adolfo, Barnum, Mitchell, Walker, Hawkins [as a hitter] and others all fall into the "signed-for-tools-other-than-the-hit-tool" category to me. [Zangari, with his avalanche of Ks, might be placed right on the cusp of joining this group of non-hitting suspects/failed prospects, IMO.] After a decade+ of watching position players fail, Collins, Call, Fisher, Tilson, hell, even Jackson Glines or anyone who can HIT are all more compelling, IMHO. QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 11, 2016 -> 03:37 PM) Also thanks, glad you like the writing! And I do appreciate your in-depth analysis here, it took real thought and even if I disagree I love the discussion. And thank you for your work as well.
  17. Two-Gun Pete

    Baseball America Sox Top 10

    QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 11, 2016 -> 03:07 PM) So, here's something funny - I wrote one of those three articles. Oh, I know. I knew you'd appreciate me doing so, and I appreciate your work; Remenowsky was a guy I was really pulling for back then as well. QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 11, 2016 -> 03:07 PM) Anyway, your hitter analysis articles are all focused on statistics. And I think you need to take any stats with a huge pile of salt at those levels, especially for a player who is notably younger than his competition. But he's also much more EXPERIENCED than his competition. You call him a "19 year old," I call him a "3rd year pro." Many, if not most of his opponents have less EXPERIENCE in the pro game than he. QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 11, 2016 -> 03:07 PM) Barnum and Davidson aren't good comps anyway - Barnum failed repeatedly at levels all the way through and didn't have any of the tools Adolfo does aside from power, and Davidson actually succeeded for years until failing at AAA/MLB. And Michael Jordan? Come on. You were the one who touted his "power, arm, and athleticism." Barnum and Davidson are/were both lauded for [wait for it].... Their "Raw Power." So too is Adolfo. These [and many other players] are examples of abject failure in terms of emphasizing EVERYTHING other than the HIT tool. The HIT tool is everything, and yet, this team has squandered picks and signings on other tools. To me, this explains the overarching majority of this org's failure to produce many everyday position players over the past decade. You also lauded Adolfo for his athleticism. I merely picked MJ, Jared Mitchell, and Keenyn Walker as examples of athletic failures in this organization in terms of never amounting to anything. Again, this [athleticism] is an attribute that means far less to a prospect's future chances than his HIT tool. QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 11, 2016 -> 03:07 PM) If you are saying Adolfo isn't a T100 prospect or close to it, I agree. No argument. But you called him a non-prospect, which is outright silly. Give him a season or two to see if the tools translate, which they mostly haven't yet. He's already had 3 seasons, and he's made little-to-no progress. Agreed that tools matter, but we should also respect the numbers. At some point, if he had a REAL chance of making it, we probably would have seen some improvement in the numbers. Alas, he hasn't, hereto fore.
  18. Two-Gun Pete

    Baseball America Sox Top 10

    QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 11, 2016 -> 12:01 PM) The problem with this logic is the organization has shown almost no ability to develop prospects with poor hit tools. One of the reasons I think Call & Fisher definitely deserve to be rated higher than Adolfo. I agree here. While I can find no references to further my opinion, I don't think that a player's hit tool can be developed very much, at all. That is, a player either has the ability to hit, or he doesn't when he's signed. Subsequent coaching can only work "on the margins" of a player's hit tool, but coaching CANNOT turn Micker Adolfo into Tony Gwynn, or Keon Barnum into Frank Thomas. For that matter, I don't know if ANY coaching staff, in ANY organization can turn a guy who's allergic to walks and loves to strike out into a Kevin Youkilis-type. If/when Adolfo busts out, though, it won't have been the coaching staff's fault, so much as it was the scouting department for signing a poor player in the first place. Garbage in, garbage out. At the same time, if/when Collins and Call and others succeed, it will have been mainly due to the scouting department finally putting an emphasis on OBP.
  19. Two-Gun Pete

    Baseball America Sox Top 10

    QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 9, 2016 -> 08:22 AM) You've decided that the guy who just finished in Class A at age 19, and who has some of the best power, arm and athletic tools in the entire system, is a non-prospect? Come on now. He certainly could be a bust, most prospects end up there, but giving up on him at this point is silly. Yes, I am. And, I’ll attempt to do so, using 3 links as data points, and a few observations about Micker Adolfo. Prospect Value, Success Rate, and Bust Rate for Top 100 Prospects Summary: Most top 100 prospects fail to become productive [READ: >3 WAR in their first 6 years], and Micker Adolfo is light years away from being a top 100 prospect. Even if he were able to get himself into a Top 100 list somewhere, the most interesting part [to me] about this piece is that more than 56% of hitters ranked 51-75, and almost 64% of hitters from 76-100 provide Strikeout Rate, Walk Rate, and future success for top prospects for 1990 – 2006 Prospects Summary: 1. Initially, the writer thought that "High K" prospects almost always busted. 2. However, “high K” prospects can succeed, IF they also walk a lot, AND are high power hitters as well. [Meaning, IN games, not so-called “raw” power/batting practice power.] 3. Unfortunately [For Micker Adolfo] many of the “High K/High BB” prospects were either steroid cheats, and/or HOF/near-HOF power types. 4. Additionally, Adolfo is the worst type of prospect: “high K,” but “low BB.” On top of this, his supposed “power” hasn’t manifested itself, but then Avi was supposed to have a good amount of in-game power as well. Dan Remenowsky and Low Minors Pitching Dan Remenowsky was a WELL-above average pitcher in the low minors who never amounted to anything in the high minors. Micker Adolfo struck out to a ~30% clip to opposing pitchers that are, by and large, inferior to Remenowsky. By extension, this would infer that Adolfo is MORE of a “no hoper” than Remenowsky, not less. About Adolfo: 1. His “Power” means NOTHING if he can’t get on base. Ask Keon Barnum, Matt Davidson, and all the other “raw power” types that Laumann and KW chased for years, and then how many of them amounted to anything at all. 2. He won’t be in the lineup frequently enough to use his “Arm,” if he can’t get on base. No manager will have a black hole in his lineup, no matter how awesome that offensive black hole’s arm is in the field. 3. His “athleticism” means NOTHING if he can’t get on base. Ask Mitchell, Walker, hell, even Michael Jordan if their “athleticism” made them ballplayers or not. I certainly hope I’m proven wrong on Adolfo, but he’s a 3rd year pro who has made little-to-no progress hereto fore at the dish. My ideal outcome for him would be for him to have a “career year,” then be packaged with other pieces for some REAL prospects who can actually hit.
  20. Two-Gun Pete

    Baseball America Sox Top 10

    QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 7, 2016 -> 01:51 PM) Micker Adolfo. As I said, not a BIG gap there for me. Yeah, Im comfortable calling this guy a "non-prospect" at this point. Yes, i get how young he is, but that simply does not matter. Any player who strikes out @ a ~30% clip in the low minors will never ever amount to anything. This last draft (and more importantly, it's focus on OBP) should at long last show the org & it's fans what should be the most important tool of any position player, except for catchers. As Adolfo divides his time between being injured and striking out, I fail to see any chance for him to make The Show.
  21. Two-Gun Pete

    A Proposal: Courtney Hawkins, Pitcher

    QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 2, 2016 -> 05:45 PM) . Unless he starts recognizing some spin and increases his contact rate significantly he will be done in the org within the next two years. You know, I used to take the Front office @ their word, & believe that a player's hit tool could be improved over time. However, after seeing a cavalcade of Sox prospects utterly fail to 'learn how to make contact,' I now believe that a player's hit tool is largely unimproveable. After all, we're all still waiting for Jared Mitchell, Jordan Danks, Courtney Hawkins, Keon Barnum, Matt Davidson, Micker Adolfo, Corey Zangari, and many many others either 'learn to make more contact,' OR 'strike out less.' After watching literally ZERO of the 'strikeout commandos' among the Sox prospects make it, I doubt that it is even possible to happen. To the point of this thread, I don't even know why a position change hasn't already happened. But then, throw that into the pile of head-scratching decisions by this team.
  22. Two-Gun Pete

    Kenny Williams Leaving?

    QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 22, 2016 -> 09:56 AM) That's true - but it's also true that the status quo won't get the Sox anywhere. I'll risk Hahn trading Sale for prospects or young players...he came up with Eaton so there is some history of competence. But my fear is that he trades Sale primarily for a veteran...and Hahn has a history of taking that bait when some team dabbles an ex all star in front of his nose. Eaton is so much more an outlier than the rule with this front office. What's worse, is that they didn't learn anything from making this trade, and why it worked out for them. I don't know that Hahn is more into vets or garbage time heroes like Gillespie and Davidson. Regardless, color me unimpressed by his record hereto fore. QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Oct 22, 2016 -> 10:47 AM) Hahn is better at trades than FA signings. Yes, we all LOVED: Shields Samardzjia Davidson And many, many others. Heck the way they drove a HARD BARGAIN for Peavy to get the 5-tool stud Avi Garcia is proof that they know how to sell off assets as well. If we have to go back to Eaton to look at a good trade, that's still 3 years of failure and ineptitude by these clowns.
  23. Two-Gun Pete

    Kenny Williams Leaving?

    QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Oct 21, 2016 -> 09:43 PM) That's why I don't get some of the fans' giddiness to trade Sale or Q. The problems are in scouting and development. While I agree that it would be moronic to trust the mouthbreathers in the Front office to strike a decent deal for any of the team's assets, the problems go deeper than "just" in scouting and devlopment. Remember, these are the imbeciles that thought that hiring RV was a good idea. And to KEEP RV, even after he had clearly failed as manager. These are the morons who orignally wanted Pauly as player manager. These are the cretins that hired Renteria, without having a COMPETITIVE process. These are the idiots who hired an untested newbie in Getz as a departmental director. In sum, the Front office has proven their stupidity over and over again. We could keep going all morning with chapter and verse of examples of moronic stupidity by this front office, in areas OTHER than scouting & development. And for this reason, it would be catastrophic to trust these mopes to trade Q, Sale, or ANY asset, IMO.
  24. Two-Gun Pete

    9/27 game thread

    QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 27, 2016 -> 09:10 PM) You really need to be at 775-825 to be a plus for your team at the DH position... I can't disagree with this very much. That said, this is an organization that has failed to find a decent DH, which has been a key weakness in this team over the past decade or so. Seriously, go back and look at the actual numbers put up @ this position since Thome left. You just might puke. On the other hand, I don't immediately see a better alternative to Morneau that the Sox have a realistic chance to sign. QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 27, 2016 -> 09:53 PM) Has this horrid season been worth the pain just because of the emergence of Anderson? He's still hovering around .280 which is nice. His .280-ish ba means next to nothing when you see his anemic OBP. He's just as allergic to walks as the next Sox batter. What's worse is that this org clings to the antiquated idea of having speedy guys stop the lineup, whether they can get on base or not. I get it, though. As fans, we're all stoked that Anderson hasn't completely crapped his pants, as is standard for most Sox MiLB products. But if he's going to be a useful player, he's got to get the OBP above .320 or so.
  25. Two-Gun Pete

    The problem is simple: it's home runs and .OPS

    QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Sep 24, 2016 -> 10:55 PM) See I always looked at Corpseball as fat Jim Thome walking and it taking 3 hits to get his fat ass home. And everybody praised his OBP but it was actually almost useless. And then old JD would get on base and the same problem. And if Paulie singled...3 hits to get em in. That was corpseball to me- useless jim thome. Love the man, just not the player after '06. So, if I'm understanding you correctly, you: 1. Hate OBP, and 2. Want a designated HITTER who has at least average footspeed. Based on this, Avi Garcia is the ideal DH in your view, yes? After all, he sucks out loud at basic On Base skills, and is a blazing fast runner compared to say, Papi or Frank Thomas or fat Jim Thome.