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Two-Gun Pete

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Everything posted by Two-Gun Pete

  1. Two-Gun Pete

    Andrew Vaughn Hype Thread

    Sure. You know who else had a "very high ceiling?" You know who else had "filthy stuff?" Rodon & Lopez. But, neither mastered the rudimentary basic of being a regular & reliable thrower of strikes. I get that fans get the vapors over velo & stuff. But all that, & $5 will only buy you a ride on the CTA, if you can't regularly throw it for strikes. Looking at Cease's numbers, he's never been good at avoiding walks. Whats also worrying is that the other two pieces of Three True Outcomes, K/9 & HR/9, are all getting shittier over the years. To me, this is a real fucking problem for this team. IMO, handing him a rotation spot without competition is like handing a 5 year old a loaded gun. To bring it back to the topic of this thread, this lineup isn't the offensively challenged lineups when Carlos Quentin had to rescue the team as a rookie. And for as awesome as Vaughn may be, we aren't that desperate for his bat, just yet. And he doesn't play a premium defensive position, and the guy in front of him just won the league MVP. So him going off to the alternate site shouldn't be a travesty, and nor should it cost this team the playoffs. We need reliable IP out of the rotation, so that this bullpen and this lineup can go win the fucking pennant for us. Everything else is mere commentary, IMO.
  2. Two-Gun Pete

    Andrew Vaughn Hype Thread

    I understand where you're coming from. But when I look at the younger SPs stats and projections, I get nervous. I mean, look at Cease's BB/9. In the era of Three True Outcomes, i don't know why this org didn't seriously consider the rotation a problem. I dont get why, after watching the rotation wilter at towards the end of 2020, they didn't add a better SP than Rodon, in addition to Lynn. I dont know why they believe in Cease/Lopez/Rodon, when they've underperformed for years now. On the other side of the coin, I feel pretty good about the lineup, with or without Vaughn. I happen to believe in Abreu/Jimenez/Moncada/Anderson/Grandal and others. I happen to think that there's enough depth in quality in the lineup that this team shouldn't be desperate to hang their playoff hopes on a rookie. So, I don't feel the need to rush to get Vaughn here, unless he signs an extension. And again, this team made the playoffs, despite having a turd of a RFer, and a turd of a DH last season. They bounced out of the playoffs, because the rotation was 2 Vets, a rookie, and a pile of walk machines.
  3. Two-Gun Pete

    Andrew Vaughn Hype Thread

    Yeah, and I think this would be my preference. I would have preferred to have acquired SP depth this offseason, and to stretch out Crochet in MiLB, WHILE gaining the extra control. I would have preferred that Kopech find the strike zone in MiLB, WHILE gaining the extra control. And as far as Vaughn goes, I put exactly zero weight into what a youngster does in the thin air of Arizona. But, since the plan seems to be hope/wish/pray that Kopech/Cease/Rodon/Lopez magically stop walking the yard, AND hope/wish/pray that Crochet's body isn't made of glass, I guess we should be OK with this org shortening the window and losing controllable years from those two. BUT, for Vaughn, I don't think he'll be the difference in making/not making the playoffs, in all honesty*. So, for me, either he signs an extension, or he goes to the alternative site for 15 days. *I think this team's playoff hopes hinge entirely on whether or not Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech can throw enough strikes, so that they can throw enough innings, so that games can be turned over to our potent bullpen in generally advantageous situations. If they continue to walk the yard, there isn't a DH in MLB who can outhit Cease's/Lopez's/Rodon's/Kopech's histories of giving the game away via their walk rates. Period.
  4. Two-Gun Pete

    I'm going to enjoy the White Sox this year

    Agreed that TLR should shut his stoopid hole. That said, your 2022 [if there is a season]/2023 rotation consists of: a CY candidate, 2 guys who struggled to keep their BB/9 under 4 in MiLB, let alone in MLB, and a guy who couldn't stay healthy long enough to throw even 10 IP. The 3 SPs you list after Giolito have all drastically underperformed their velo and stuff so far in their careers. We don't actually yet know if Kopech/Crochet/Cease are actually, ya know, GOOD at baseball or if they're all gonna be busts. What's more, all 4 have significant injury histories. In the era Three True Outcomes, the shittiness at avoiding giving up walks and HR [by Cease/Kopech especially] seems to be disadvantageous towards winning.
  5. Two-Gun Pete

    I'm going to enjoy the White Sox this year

    OK, I understand what you were going for in your previous post. That said, I think I disagree. I think that 2021 should be the more likely year to compete. Or, at least, this is the way those geniuses in the FO have hoped for it to be. [Rather than PLANNING for the best year to compete..] By 2022, Keuchel will be 34, and will likely be in the middle of age-related regression. Lynn likely will have signed somewhere else in FA. Rodon will again be released. Grandal will be 33, and may begin his age-related regression as well. Eaton will either be gone or injured, and TLR will be a year closer to alcohol-related dementia. Meanwhile, to succor TLR, the SOX will have wasted a year of control on putting crochet in the BP. Oh, and BTW, the CBA expires after this season. I'm sure noted labor ally JR will gladly give the players all that they want, in order to keep the games going. So, IMO, its hope/wish/pray for competence out of Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech to find the strike zone this season. OR, hope for this FO to actually put in the work to acquire the necessary rotational depth to compete. During an open CBA negotiation next offseason.
  6. Two-Gun Pete

    I'm going to enjoy the White Sox this year

    I'm of the same mindset. Last season, I felt that the main reason why the SOX crapped their pants down the stretch, and why they failed to advance in the playoffs wasn't for a lack of BP arms. I felt it was due to a lack of depth out of the rotation. In other words, Dunning skunked Cease, Lopez, Rodon, and Gonzalez, mainly because those guys had incurable allergies to throwing strikes. So, what did those geniuses do? They blew their FA wad on the top reliever available this offseason, and then went back to wishing/hoping/praying that Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech can fucking find the fucking strike zone with a roadmap. I would have preferred that they enhanced the rotation's depth by grabbing TWO SPs this offseason, so that this organization's hopes aren't pinned on Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech fucking finding the fucking strike zone with a roadmap. From my POV, what they've chosen to do is suboptimal. Sure, it gives some fans the jollies to know that they made a luxury purchase in Hendriks. And KW/RH/JR can add another "press conference win" to their long and treasured history of "winning the offseason." But God help us, if Cease/Lopez/Rodon/Kopech can't fucking find the fucking strike zone with a roadmap. I will enjoy this season, win, lose, or draw. But I think they haven't optimized their choices here, and I think its OK to point this out. [I mean, if this was WSI, we'd all be banned, because we don't have our pompons out for KW/RN/JR like teenagers on homecoming weekend.] Holy FUCK, would that be 31 flavors of shit if this is the case. They failed to lock up Giolito before the prices for reupping TOR SPs went through the roof. They stoopidly gave away an asset to acquire a turd like Mazara. They've given away 6 years of whatever Dunning will do for 1 year of future competitive eater Lance Lynn. They've added a geezing geezer as manager. And, it looks like they'll start the clocks on Crochet and Vaughn, with or without extensions. In sum, whether they're right or wrong, they've decided that 2021 is the year, and they've strived mightily to shorten the competitive window. So, if this is a developmental year, they've [once again] royally fucked up.
  7. Two-Gun Pete

    I'm going to enjoy the White Sox this year

    I get that a lot of posters here believe that Katz can and will "fix Cease," but it isn't "just" fixing Cease, so much as it is keeping Cease AND Lopez AND Kopech AND Rodon from walking the fucking yard every 5th day. Without cromulence out of the majority of this group, this team will be in trouble in terms of competing for a playoff berth. Now, to the topic of this thread, I'm going to enjoy this year's team and the possibility of returning to watching games. But I think it's also fair to believe that Colome + Q would have yielded more fWAR than Rodon + Hendricks. I also think its fair to hate the TLR hire, just as much as it is to like the dismissal of Coop. One can enjoy this team and this season, AND still dislike certain aspects of it, and still dislike how it was built this offseason. It really ain't that hard to do, IMO.
  8. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    Dude, this isn't so hard to look up: How to apply for Student loans From that link: ..."To apply for a federal student loan, first complete and submit the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA®) form. Based on the results of the FAFSA form, your college or career school will send you a financial aid offer, which may include a federal student loan(s). Your school will explain how to accept all, or a part of the aid offered." And yes: Whose Income Goes On FAFSA From that link: "What kind of information must my parents provide for the FAFSA® form? For each parent, you’ll report similar information to that you report for yourself: basic information about your parent’s identity (e.g., name, date of birth, and Social Security number—if he or she has one); living situation (e.g., marital status, state of residence, household size); and financial circumstances (e.g., tax information, certain assets, certain untaxed income." So yes, you're correct that the student has to pay the loans. But based on these links I've provided from the Federal student aid website, I'm correct that the basis for loan eligibility is based on the FAFSA, which in turn is based on the parents' income.
  9. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    Disagreed. If a student is a dependent, it is the parent's income that appears on the FAFSA form. Info about FAFSA
  10. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    Agreed about the non-bolded part. About the bolded, however: 1. The schools charge whatever they want, because the loans are not underwritten, not tied to the value of the degree, and not limited by the student's future ability to pay. 2. Young and naive borrowers then borrow whatever the fook they want, even if they will have no prayer of making the payments. In other words, let's say Tex gets a degree in Mechanical Engineering, while Pete stoopidly gets a degree in poetry. These two students' abilities to borrow are set by how much our parents make, NOT based on the fact that Tex will make Six Figures, while Pete will be serving coffee at Starbucks. So, the moral hazard exists where the lender does NOT have to consider that Pete will never ever be able to make the payments. If the lenders were forced to make a risk analysis on these two borrowers, the interest rates would NOT increase. What would happen is that Pete wouldn't be able to borrow as much as Tex. IOW, consider if both Tex and Pete had 800 credit, but Tex is an engineer, while Pete worked at Walmart, and both were shopping for houses. Tex could buy in Arlington Heights, while Pete might have to look in Maywood. If student lenders had to consider the same risks as mortgage lenders did, rates would not be affected. Rather, the lender might cap the amount borrowed, depending on future earnings of the student. Over time, schools would then have to alter their pricing behavior, or risk losing students and revenues. Or maybe consider cutting non-performing parts of a school, such as athletics programs that suck.
  11. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    True that our education system has failed in this regard. That said, I don't know that we "have to" force people to take majors that will lead to a job. I also recognize that the humanities, the liberal arts, etc... can be crucial to rounding out an education. What is problematic, and creates a moral hazard is when a student chooses some stoopid major that has no prayer of providing the student with a livable wage, then the schools charge them the same as a REAL major. OR, when the lenders allow an oboe major to borrow the same as a finance major. The cost to a student should be tied to the value of the degree. The ability to borrow should be tied to the ability to repay. Set as a percentage of likely earnings, the amount a student can borrow should be set in such a way that we aren't creating piles of perma-poor Americans.
  12. Two-Gun Pete

    Student Loan Debt

    I do like the dischargability over time idea. However, I also believe that schools and lenders also have to change their behaviors as well. Colleges and universities have had virtually unlimited access to virtually unlimited funding by means of federally-backed loans that are not tied to the value of the degree, and not underwritten by the student's likelihood of future repayment. Just by putting THE THREAT of bankruptcy to discharge student loans will force schools to re-think charging a sociology student the same as a nursing student, or else those loans may not perform. Then, tie a school's future ability to receive loans to their student loans performances over time. What this can do is to weed out the schools that prey on the young and the otherwise naive, by threatening their future viability, if their alumni can't pay their loans. At the same time, the threat of bankruptcy to discharge student loans would force lenders to have some measure of underwriting standards before they pass out the cash. Otherwise, lenders could be saddled with piles of useless loans that will never be repaid. The mere threat of getting fooked out of repayment of loans via BK would bend the cost curve downward, IMO. It is for this reason that I think it is essential to make student loans dischargeable via BK. (Edit) And, I think that having loans dischargeable, either all at once, or over time can help modify future behaviors of lenders and the schools alike.
  13. Two-Gun Pete

    Hector wrong. Again. - Cruz back with Min

    To respond to this, here's a thought: It ain't against the rules to, ya know, acquire your 3rd playoff SP at the TDL. It also ain't against the rules to see if Q or Cease or Kopech or someone else can become the 3rd playoff starter over the course of the season. Roster construction is an ongoing art & science. Rarely are teams "finished" on January 18th. Blowing the entirety your trade or FA wad at this point doesn't seem to be the best use of resources, IMO. Carry on, then...
  14. Two-Gun Pete

    Trade Whispers - Starting Pitchers

    My view is that the team in spring training will be different than the team at the TDL, which will be different than the team when rosters expand. IOW, at THIS POINT in the evolution of the roster, they only need to get to the TDL with whomever they pickup to round out the rotation. I think too many here cling to the (incorrect, IMO) idea that the roster will be finished NOW. As it pertains to the options on offer, I think that making a trade is an inferior option to a FA signing at this point. This is because spending trade assets now means that there will be fewer at the TDL to use then. I also don't see Q or Richards to be in the same tranche of SPs as Gio Gonzalez. I think Q or Richards are closer to their successful season(s), and are more likely to get us to the TDL, reasonably healthy and in contention. At the TDL, maybe Cease gets his head out of his rectum, and has his BB/9IP @ a non-vomit worthy level. Or maybe there's a rental that could be had for cheap. Or maybe Kopech is on form. Finally, when rosters expand, if they play their cards correctly, there might be a bullet or two to use then. In sum, I don't think that a massive move is really needed right now. I think an affordable SP who can get us to the TDL is what this roster needs at the moment. Would I love it if Bauer is the move? Sure. But I don't see it happening, and I don't see it as being necessary, TBH.
  15. Two-Gun Pete

    NFL Thread 2020-2021

    Here you go: Khalil Mack Spotrac It looks like his salary is $17MM for 2021, with some $7MM in various bonuses. It looks like there's an out in 2022. So, maybe he's more tradeable than I initially thought. At the end of the day, is a 30 year old Khalil Mack, who appears to be in decline both physically and performance-wise worth $17MM to the acquiring team? That is, in a year where the salary cap is going down? OTOH, what will it take for it to be worth it for the Bears to accelerate all the bonuses against the cap? All that considered, I still don't think that Mack will land a high-round pick in trade, let alone two.
  16. Two-Gun Pete

    NFL Thread 2020-2021

    I think you're gonna have to see more than one from this group have to go, just to get under the cap. For my money, I'd rather sell Hicks first, because he's getting older, and there are Nichols and Goldman at that position. I think it would be easier to sell Fuller, as his performance hasn't fallen off a cliff, & Fullers cap hit isn't as obnoxious as Jacksons. (At least, relative to their positions.) Then, I think you're looking at Graham, and a few O-Linemen being gone, and maybe Robinson could then be retained as well.
  17. Two-Gun Pete

    NFL Thread 2020-2021

    Yeah, I'm afraid this is a pipedream. Mack will be 30 years old next season, coming off two consecutive single-digit-sack years, and with an accumulation of injuries. His cap hit will be $26.6MM, in a year when the salary cap will be going down. Should the Bears look to trade Mack, they will either have to send a significant amount of money to get a middling asset in return. OR, get nothing in exchange for salary cap relief. That said, there's no freakin way the Bears will get even one high round pick for Mack, given his age, his injuries, his declining production, and his obese contract, IMO.
  18. Two-Gun Pete

    NFL Thread 2020-2021

    Yeah, thank GOD this team bum-slayed their way into backing into a road wildcard loss. We will long-remember this glorious season, replete with its 8-8 magnificence. And who knows? With marginal improvements on the periphery of the roster to get under the cap, and shuffling the coaching staff around, maybe they can go for a 3rd straight 8-8 season. (They hold parades for 8-8 teams, right?)
  19. Two-Gun Pete

    2020 Election Thoughts

    I'm curious as well.
  20. Two-Gun Pete

    Chuck loves Cease

    The bolded is all that really matters about Cease. His velo, his stuff, and his assortment of pitches means exactly Jack and Shit, if he can't fucking throw for strikes. Which, of course, leads to his shitty BB/9IP, his shitty K/9IP, and his generally shitty overall outcomes. Now, I've favored Cease fucking off to Charlotte to fucking learn how to fucking throw fucking strikes. If he can successfully get his shit sorted, then the sky's the limit for the youngster. But, if not, well then, there are opportunities for him in Mexico or Asia. He may have been a golden god in high school and in the low minors, but once again, if he can't throw strikes and he's walking the yard, then Cease is pretty much useless. I hope he can figure some stuff out. The issue is that this year's team REALLY can't wait on him to unfuck himself, while simultaneously trying to compete. This is why I'd like at least one more SP signed in FA, while Cease and Kopech contemplate the glory of pitching in Taiwan in the future while riding busses across the American South in 2021. That is, if they can't get their shit sorted. The other thing is that Katz is being talked up because he undid the damage Cooper did to Giolito. But OTOH, didn't Katz try to unfuck Fulmer as well? Why is it assumed that "Katz will fix him?" Of course I hope Katz CAN fix Cease, but who knows...
  21. Two-Gun Pete

    2020 Election Thoughts

    This discussion about the police needs Greg to post about how he's shitting his pants, & needs to buy a gun.
  22. Two-Gun Pete

    NFL Thread 2020-2021

    And I don't know what Nagy has done to earn the right to continue coaching here. I thought that Lovie rightly paid for underperformance by losing his job. I'd like to know why this same standard isn't applied to Nagy. Especially since Lovie's defenses were generally good, while Nagys offenses have been garbage in general.
  23. Two-Gun Pete

    NFL Thread 2020-2021

    Help me understand it correctly: 2012: Lovie, you went 10-6, & had a Super Bowl appearance during your tenure as coach. Your defenses have generally been good, and your teams have generally been able to avoid massive blunders more often than not. That's not good enough! You're fired. 2021: Matt Nagy, you went 8-8. You backed into the playoffs by bumslaying shitty teams, while getting b****-slapped by good teams. Your offenses have generally sucked a horses ass, while your teams have been able to fuck up over and over. You've never made it to a Super Bowl... You get to keep your job. WOOOO!!!! PLAYOFFS!!!! WOOOO!!!! Do I have this correct?
  24. Two-Gun Pete

    Sox still talking with Colome

    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dylan-cease/18525/stats?position=P Cease sucks at baseball right now. He may be good someday, but the window is open now. His BB/9IP, K/9IP, & HR/9IP all say that he sucks. He & Kopech should go fuck off in Charlotte, & find the strike zone. If they can find the strike zone later in 2021, they can rejoin the roster. But counting on a fucking walkathon like Cease to start the season is stoopid.
  25. Two-Gun Pete

    Sox still talking with Colome

    Maybe. But then we'll all get to treasure the sight of Cease walking the fucking yard every 5 days.
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