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IMO, the only way a Yelich trade or something similar makes sense is if the Sox are planning on shipping out Abreu + Avi to cover some portion of the cost. You’re basically trading 2 years of control in for 5 at that point, with a small hit to the farm. It might seem counter-intuitive since you then waste a year or more of Yelich with a bad team but long-term the salary savings could be applied elsewhere, and it’d help balance the lineup out long-term. It’s a more cost-effective way to get ~80% of a Machado-type player (who still has additional upside) without the risk of a 10 year massive contract.

He also still has good stuff and is throwing as hard as he ever has. We got a decent prospect for Dan Jennings lol, this is a guy who strikes out 9-10+ per 9 with closing pedigree and reasonable money.

To me, this only really makes sense as a way to re-balance the lineup since the Sox really lack lefty power, and outside of Colins we don’t have much in the pipeline. I know Yolmer is a switch hitter, but Moustakas is obviously a better hitter/power threat. Plus the Sox could then flip Yolmer, though I guess they could either way.

So help me god don’t trade Kopech/Jimenez/Robert. Would prefer to keep Gio/Lopez/Dunning. Could live with trading Rutherford/Cease/Fulmer.

I think people are vastly underrating a potential Yolmer return. Guy plays some of the best defense in baseball at multiple positions, and is young with 4 years of control left. He graded out equal to Javy Baez last year in terms of fWAR (playing superior defense) and wasn’t far behind with the bat. And while his ML track record of hitting isn’t long, he was a very good minor league hitter despite being aggressively promoted and young for each level. Nothing in his advanced metrics from this year scream regression, and I personally think he could develop some more pop as he ages. His batted ball splits actually suggest he elevates it enough to keep hitting for power.

JBJ really screams Austin Jackson to me. The swing and miss profile, plus general hot and cold nature give him some serious long-term hitting risk. Plus, if his athleticism starts to slip at all, I’m not sure he can maintain his value without hitting markedly better. I know he’s only 27, but defense-first center fielders don’t exactly age well. Of course, guys like this also sometimes become George Springer. The problem is, he’s clearly not a natural hitter if you watch him. His swing is kind of clumsy and he seriously struggles with offspeed stuff. Every Red Sox fan I know can’t stand him, as he tends to beat up on bad pitching and disappear against anyone with good stuff.

It’s really interesting because in a way getting a guy like Stanton makes some of the prospects more disposable. Plus then you can trade Avi to recoup some prospect value. And of course the 4th overall pick helps. Obviously youre not giving up any of Moncada, Eloy, Kopech, Giolito or Lopez. But the rest of the top prospects beyond Collins I would entertain at least. Do you really need Rutherford if you get Stanton? Is it worth sending away a guy like Cease that’s electric but looks like a reliever? Guys like Yolmer also have value to a rebuilding team but less so to us. Or even Delmonico since he’s likely to eventually lose the job. My biggest concern (beyond the length) is actually the opt-out if you commit to it.

Avi would still likely have been a useful (2ish WAR) player without the BABIP luck this year. I'm guessing that's about how he'd be valued on the market. The interesting thing to me is whether he continues to improve. He's a classic case of a guy that could add more loft to his swing and start hitting 30+ home runs ala JD Martinez. The physical talent and size is so absurd that you almost hate to sell a guy just tapping into it. On the other hand, it could also wreck his BABIP, so who knows if he should focus on it. But for instance pulling the ball more this year really helped him in a number of areas.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Aug 17, 2017 -> 07:21 AM) The good: He has already posted a 0.8 oWAR on baseball reference in only 13 games. Thats more than a starter, thats all star level production. The bad: There is almost a 0% chance he maintains said production. His BB% and K% are in normal bounds, but his BABIP and ISO are much higher than normal. On a more basic level, who thinks he can actually maintain hitting close to .400? The question is how far will the offensive profile regress because... The ugly: He already has a -0.3 dWAR on baseball reference in only 13 games and in a position where we are trying to hide his defensive struggles. If we abandon the idea of trying to have him play 3B and let him concentrate on LF he should improve and hopefully become atleast a replacement level defensive player. If he can improve his defense in LF, I really like his chances to hang around and be a contributor to atleast the beginning of our competitive period. Right now I'd say he probably had greater odds of sticking around than Davidson or Saladino. To be fair, he's flashed mammoth power in the past (see AA last year in a pitchers park and spring training). I think ISO is the hardest to predict at the ML level (look at Leury, other guys that have gained some late). He made dramatic contact skill increases this year and has been getting on base all year. If the power keeps playing up he's got the skills/swing to be productive. Plus the difference in the ML vs minor league ball doesn't hurt (it is actually a different ball)...look at how many guys have had huge power breakouts in the majors.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Aug 10, 2017 -> 06:48 PM) Kanny was down 4 runs in the bottom of the 1st before Micker walked to the plate, the game is now tied. He's hitting cleanup with Call, Rutherford and Burger ahead of him. He may never develop the plate discipline to make it. But on the other hand he could be an absolute monster. Guy is seriously imposing in the box, hard to believe he's 20.

Guessing this means Zavala made it. Mendick is probably in my top 30 based on the glove but I guess it's fair to want to see him hit in AA first given his age.

Red Sox really didn't get much. Makes me feel better about the Swarzak return.

I think we might be surprised on the MiGo return. He's probably a bit more valuable than Melky was, even with some pretty poor peripherals for much of this year. Holland makes no sense unless it's for the pen. Petricka maybe if someone banks on a return to form? His peripherals are fine. Yolmer? I also wonder if guys like Leury or Avi would've been moved if not for the injuries.

Eloy 2-2 with a bomb. He's been absurd since the trade.

I think MiGo will go somewhere. Seems to be some interest and so many teams in need.

Love it. Was a top 100 guy on the preseason Baseball America list. Looks like he's had some bad luck on BABIP and the HR/FB rate is down, which could also be some bad luck.

QUOTE (TomPickle @ Jul 25, 2017 -> 06:03 PM) I'm fine with the return, but his home/road splits are pretty concerning. Home (Colorado Springs): 1.059 OPS Away: .673 OPS Yeah his league is definitely the main concern. Wonder if it's like the coors effect at all. Lot of research has been done saying even objectively good hitters tend to have extremely home/road splits away from high altitudes. Look at Fowler, he actually got better leaving coors.

The more I look into this guy the more I like it. Didn't realize he's 6' 4" 205 and can apparently run.

This guy is realistically perfect for where we are in the rebuild. Let him soak up ABs and if he becomes something, great. Were he an A-ball guy he'd be stuck in the logjam down there.

This is where the rebuilding gets tough. When all the major trade chips are gone and there's a ton of scrutiny on the guys in the system. Everyone needs to relax and stop pushing the panic button every time a guy struggles for an extended period of time. If you thought they'd hit on most of these guys you're going to be disappointed. It's a crap-shoot and the process isn't linear. Take a deep breath and realize you'll likely see many guys fail, and many guys that do succeed take odd paths.

He was a quality major league starter the last two years. Everyone needs to relax. Dude is 24 and he's working his way back.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jul 24, 2017 -> 09:23 PM) I'm probably lower on Adolfo than most people here. BB% below 6 and K% over 30 as a nearly 21-year-old at low-A isn't so hot. Without the high BABIP his line would look very meh. Has increased his power but that's about it. Have you watched him at all this year? His swing and approach are infinitely better. Still striking out like you said but the amount of progress he's made over last year is insane. Since May he has like 40+ XBHs and he's starting to really work the count. Also, be careful extrapolating minor league BABIPs. Most elite prospects put up crazy in play #'s at some point. Micker is nuking the ball when he makes contact. In terms of age I think you're being way too pessimistic. He doesn't need to be in AA for 2.5 more years to be on track to reach the majors. Not every guy realizes their tools at 20 LOL.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jul 24, 2017 -> 03:13 PM) Apparently the Nats scouting the Sox arms still. This from Phil Rogers. Obviously meant the Sox, not Cubs. "Even with David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle off market, @Nationals still scouting @Cubs. Anthony Swarzak, Dan Jennings? Miguel Gonzalez?" Gotta imagine it's Swarzak. Maybe Jennings for depth. Could be a depth starter but our guys aren't exactly lighting the world on fire on the peripherals.

There's still a pretty solid supply of relievers out there. As that dwindles and we get closer to the deadline Hahn is probably more likely to get a team to gamble this is the real Swarzak. Also wonder if there's an outside shot he's trying to package him with one of our position guys. ie Melky and Swarzak to the Royals, Avi and Swarzak to the Cards, etc.

I would absolutely take a chance on Soler. He's got the pedigree, has had flashes of success in the pros, and is only 25. Trayce seems like a good dude but he never hit enough in the minors to make me believe he was much more than a flash in the pan. Would rather take a chance on a guy like Soler and see if it clicks.