Enscheff

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 09:20 PM) This season, he has been elite. Fair? Obviously. BP arms are the most volatile asset in baseball. Kahnle is more likely to turn back into a pumpkin and be non-tendered than he is to continue dominating. Hahn did an amazing job converting those assets into an elite prospect. Sox fans, like all fans, irrationally value their players. As someone that doesn't give two s***s about the Sox, I still admire how well Hahn has orchestrated this rebuild so far. He has done almost flawlessly.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 09:06 PM) How is Kahnle not elite? 27 year old Rule 5 pick who has thrown 36 amazing innings after 120 very mediocre innings... Come on man...

Hahn turned a rental at 3B plus 2 non-elite BP arms into Blake Rutherford and some folks aren't ecstatic? The Sox just added a Top 30-35 position player to the system, who gives a s*** what else was in the deal?

Packaging several pieces with limited value to get a significant prospect in return was a masterstroke by Hahn. ChiSox fans should be ecstatic. Hahn is orchestrating the first year of this rebuild to perfection. I've been clamoring for the Braves to do the same thing with 2-3 of Phillips, Garcia, Suzuki, Adams and some BP pieces, but unfortunately they seem to be under the silly notion they are still in contention.

Hahn has played this rebuild perfectly. Well done. Sox fans should be excited.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 09:28 PM) Well his stock seems to be plummeting because of this His stock has plummeted because of this: April: .255/.279/.378 (.656 OPS) May: .275/.336/.385 (.721 OPS) While shaking the rust off from breaking his elbow. He has since done this: June: .312/.366/.559 (.925 OPS) July: .385/.405/.564 (.969 OPS) When FG releases Longenhagen's updated Top 100 after the trade deadline, I would bet any amount of money Albies is still ranked in the Top 15 as a 60 FV guy. So no, I am not worried about Albies the least bit. The Braves would be foolish to trade him.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 09:19 PM) You aren't concerned about his ability to hit RHP? Almost all players have platoon splits. If he plays plus defense at 2B and posts an .800+ OPS, I don't care how the platoon advantages shake out. Further, the kid is 20 in AAA. He literally has never had a professional PA against a pitcher younger than him. If the biggest flaw a 20 year old in AAA has is the need to improve on a platoon split...I'll take it...he has time to work on things (assuming the Braves don't foolishly rush him to MLB).

As far as how readily folks seem to be to ship Albies off for Q, that is due mainly to prospect fatigue. Albies has been around for a while, and doesn't have much power. Chicks and casual fans dig the longball... Albies breaks his elbow to end last year, and comes back to a slow start this season as a 20 year old in AAA. Then the Braves acquire this shiny new toy in Demeritte. He hits a few HRs, and suddenly folks think he makes Albies expendable. Then the Braves promote a utility prospect named Camargo who proceeds to have a 100 good PAs fueled by an unsustainable BABIP, and now Albies is even more expendable. It's nothing but silliness. In 3 years, when Albies is Altuve with half the HR production, Braves fans will be glad they didn't trade their 4+ WAR guy at 2B in favor of keeping fringe prospects that profile as utility players.

QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 09:04 PM) As a Braves fan what's your take on Maitan? There's been a lot of back and forth on this board, interested in hearing what you think the organizations opinion of him is in Atlanta as well as fans take. Maitan will be Acuna in 2 years. That's what chop country thinks of him.

I'm a little shocked there are actually folks who would be unhappy with getting Eloy for Q. He's exactly the type of return Hahn has been holding out for the entire time. As a Braves fan I hope this is true, and it keeps the Braves from buying a pitcher like Q a year before they are truly in a position to do so.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 03:31 PM) Well, according to the chart, the Cubs traded over $100M in surplus value for four months of Aroldis Chapman, which is a premium closer to 10x than 2x. The return the Yankees got for Miller, what the Sox got for Eaton and Sale, all show that things aren't quite as linear as is presented in that article and the author really minimizes the risk of prospects based on their distance from the majors as a further discount in his formula. As a Pirates fan, he definitely has a vested interest in overvaluing prospects, and the market was moving in the same direction in the last few seasons after the success of the Royals. But things appeared to have over corrected in the last year. Not going to go through all those names, but I would estimate Sale had a surplus value in the $80M-$100M range. Moncada was probably worth ~$80M, and Kopech probably in the ~$15M range. The other guys are fungible assets...maybe $10M combined. Now consider the BoSox also got Sale for 3 postseasons, and can limit their downside considerably by declining his 2 options, and I think those surplus values add up almost perfectly. Not really here to get into a surplus value debate tho...

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 03:23 PM) This past winter another pitcher was the prize, who fetched two blue chippers. Expecting one blue chip prospect for Q is not unreasonable. We've seen reports that a Q deal was set to go down this last offseason but was shot down at the ownership level by the opposing team. Strongly feel we'll get a good young bat ++ for him. There's nothing magical about it. He's worth it. You guys keep responding as if I'm denying Q's worth. I'm simply stating what the Braves are likely to offer. If you think Q's value will somehow increase once he is controlled for 3 seasons plus 3 postseasons instead of 3.5 season plus 4 postseason...well, I'm not sure how you can logically defend that position.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 03:21 PM) Hahn does not need to deal Q to the Braves, plenty of other interested teams: Yankees, Astros, Rockies, Brewers, Twins, Blue Jays, etc. I've said exactly that about 5 times now. I laid out what to expect from the Braves. If I were Hahn, I would look elsewhere. However, if Allard or Soroka are indeed the best available piece, I would not risk letting Q continue to waste his value pitching for a losing team. His value is not going to increase...we've already seen that. Established SPs never increase in value...only lose it as their years of control tick away. Every fan likes to think "this scenario is different", but it's not different...it's never different.

QUOTE (pablo @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 03:14 PM) What are Braves fans thoughts on Dustin Peterson? He was a guy that I had looked into during the offseason when rumors started up about the Braves and I liked what I saw - seems like a professional hitter. Any concerns on the wrist injury earlier in the year? Soroka + Gohara + Pache + Peterson? DPete is a fungible asset. He is likely a useful guy while he is cheap, and is then a non-tender candidate the moment he hits arbitration. Soroka + Gohara + Pache + Peterson is very likely in line with the max offer Hahn has from the Braves. I wouldn't take it if he can get an elite position guy from a contender. Of course, Coppy might do something stupid and include an elite bat. If so, happy you...sad me haha.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 03:16 PM) I'd disagree with your trepidation of holding onto Q. We'd likely be able to land a top 20 positional prospect ++ in the offseason where Quintana will still have 3 full years of control. Still think we end up with a top 20 position guy ++ before July 31st. Really? You honestly think Q's value is going to be higher than it was last off season or this trade deadline? If that offer wasn't available then or now, it won't magically be available this winter. His value is only going to go down as the Sox waste his years/postseasons of control on a losing team. Take it from someone who watched the Braves waste tens of millions of dollars of Teheran's value by letting him pitch for a losing team...Hahn should cash him in now.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 03:12 PM) I get where you are coming from, but I highly doubt the main piece(s) in a Q package would be an arm. Sox need bats and Q is their last blue chip piece to get high end positional prospects. /shrug Then that likely eliminates the Braves. If Coppy includes one of Acuna, Albies or Matain, he made a mistake...to Hahn's benefit.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 03:03 PM) Thanks for the post. Its nice to get some perspective from another fanbase sometimes. Not a shot directed at you, because we do the same thing, but I think it is funny that some Pirates fan puts together a guess of how prospects should be valued and we all reference it like it has some meaning. I think that his theory was blown out of the water given the prospect returns we have seen in the last year. I've seen these values hold up pretty well actually. The disconnect seems to occur when folks fail to factor in the contender's premium teams pay for the current year...usually ~2x the value of the current rest of season projected production plus projected postseason production. Knowing you are going to use a player in the postseason is extremely valuable, and teams are forced to pay for that value accordingly when they make these trades.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 03:03 PM) Braves still have enough depth in their system to overcome dealing Albies + Gohara + Pache + lotto ticket Demeritte can cover 2B and Riley can cover 3B. You still have plenty of arms and Acuna/Maitan in the system. Demeritte and Riley are garbage. Only the most posi-Braves seriously consider them as players who will ever impact the MLB roster. If I had to guess, I would imagine Coppy has offered 2 pitchers not named Wright (and probably not both Allard and Soroka), plus Pache, plus 1-2 other fungible assets. Hahn has that offer in his back pocket, and if the Yanks, Astros, Brewers, Rockies, or maybe even the Cubs, give in and include an elite position prospect, Hahn jumps. Absent those teams flinching, getting one of Allard or Soroka could very well be the biggest piece available to Hahn. If I were a Sox fan, I would hope he doesn't gamble again on keeping Q in hopes of netting a bigger return at a later date. It almost bit him once already, and he is unlikely to luck out again.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 02:47 PM) Sox are specifically looking for bats in the return for Quintana. I do not see a Braves deal getting done without one of Acuna/Albies/Maitan coming to the Sox as part of a package. Something along the lines of Albies + Gohara + Pache + lotto ticket is a framework that could work I agree, that is a reasonable package. And that's precisely why nobody wants to see this deal go down. The Braves have HUGE organizational holes at 3B, 2B and corner OF. Albies is obviously slotted to fill 2B next year. Acuna replaces Markakis in 2019. Maitan is destined for 3B once he outgrows SS, and should be ready once whichever stopgap the Braves get at 3B this offseason leaves town. These 3 position prospects are instrumental for the Braves success in 2018 and beyond. The Braves simply aren't good enough NOW to trade future value at positions of extreme need for a "win now" pitcher like Q. Hopefully the Braves FO is smart enough to realize that, but their various "win now" moves during the course of the rebuild doesn't leave me hopeful.

Braves fan here checking in to see perspectives from the other side of this madness. Knowledgeable Braves fans over at ChopCountry.com seem to realize Q's surplus value is in the $70M+ range, plus whatever contender's premium the acquiring team is willing to pay. Based on the consensus mid-season rankings and this surplus valuation of top prospects:http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-pr...pdated-edition/ I would currently value the Braves top handful of guys as: Acuna - $70M Albies - $55M Allard/Soroka/Newk/Wright - $35M Maitan - $25M Anderson - $20M Gohara - $15M Pache - $15M Nobody with half a clue wants to see the Braves give up any of the top position prospects (excepting Pache), and I personally think the Braves value Wright above all the other pitchers. That leaves a package centered around Allard and/or Soroka. Each of them only represents about half of Q's surplus value, so there would have to be (several) significant pieces added. The biggest issue most knowledgeable Braves fans have with a possible Q acquisition is the timing. We all saw how dumb it was for Coppy to hold onto Teheran through the rebuild while his most valuable years were wasted on a losing team, and we don't want to see the Braves pay a premium for Q now in a non-competitive season. Losing teams simply should not be making "win now" moves. If the Braves are going to cash in prospect chips for a SP, I would prefer to see them wait until next trade deadline (if they are competitive), and go for Archer or whichever other TOR is available. If I were a Sox fan, I would NOT be happy with a Q return that consists of mainly pitching, but that's likely what you will see form the Braves. Personally, I think Hahn is using the Braves as leverage to get the Yanks or Astros to cough up an elite position prospect.