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Alright boys, the Sox have a huge series in Milwaukee this weekend as it could be a preview of this year’s World Series. Both teams are starting their top three arms and all these guys are currently ranked in the top 21 in terms of fWAR. These six guys will make up the top two rotations come October and our offense is really going to be put to the test these next handful of days. Today’s matchup is arguably each team’s #3 based on results with Lucas Giolito (8-6, 3.66 xFIP, 2.3 fWAR) facing Freddy Peralta (7-3, 3.70 xFIP, 2.4 fWAR), but that’s understating just how talented these two dudes are. Peralta enters today with the 6th highest K/9 amongst starters at 12.40, which has helped him put up a 95th percentile xwOBA. Freddy doesn’t have overwhelming stuff velocity wise, but his 4 seamer has gotten a tremendous 31% whiff rate this year due to a mix of plus spin & deception. However, his real weapon is a slider he introduced this year that he’s thrown 27% of the time with a 45% whiff rate. This pitch in particular is going to give our right-handed bats real problems today. Beyond those two pitches, he also throws a curveball & changeup that are primarily used against lefties. Both are effective pitches with ~30% whiff rates and it’s remarkable how Freddy has been able to grow from a two pitch pitcher who relied heavily on his fastball into a legit starting pitcher with a diverse arsenal. As the appetizer of the series, he will not be fun. While Peralta has made significant strides this year, Lucas has definitely underwhelmed to some extent. His core numbers are mostly down, with a decreasing K rate (down 1.0 to 1.5 per 9) and rising HR rate (up 0.3 to 0.5 per 9) being the core of his problems. From a fastball perspective, his velocity has been very similar to the past two years, sitting right around 94 MPH on average. And despite Balta’s spidertack theory, the spin rate on his 4 seamer hasn’t dropped that significantly (down ~2% in his last start) and his carry remains very strong. To me, I think the problem is primarily location and the fact that people are starting to catch onto his change-up heavy repertoire a bit. He’s generating less whiffs on all three of his main pitches, but only the 4 seamer is seeing a significant up-tick in damage vs. prior year, with most of it coming against righties. Lucas needs to more consistently hit his spots above the zone with the fastball or find a way to wipe out guys more frequently with the slider down & out as both pitches are catching a bit more of the zone this year. The good news for us is that Milwaukee doesn’t have a great offense, ranking 22nd overall in terms of wRC+ at 89. For comparison, we are 2nd overall at 112 despite all our injuries. With Yelich underperforming, the offense has been carried by former White Sox catcher Omar Narvaez (126 wRC+) and mid-season addition Willy Adames (153 wRC+). This is simply not a lineup worth fearing and Giolito has held their hitters to a .565 OPS over 37 plate appearances (SSS admittedly). The Sox should have a slight edge today, but it will be a battle and finding a way to start both Goodwin & Sheets in the OF would make a ton of sense given how much better Peralta is vs. righties. Let’s fucking go!

Giolito vs Eshelman

It's time for an extended White Sox winning streak. Lucas Giolito takes the hill tonight, coming off of two no decisions (both White Sox wins). He is the designated stopper tonight. The opposing starter is Tyler Anderson, Pittsburgh's LHP who has lost his last two starts, and has won once since April 21st. The White Sox are 20-18 all time, 9-11 on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Starting Lineups will be posted later today. My projected starting lineup is: SS TA (R), CF AE (R), 3B YM (S), 1B JA (R), LF AV (R), RF LG (S), 2B DM (R), C ZC (L), SP LG (R). Bullpen Usage is linked here, with Foster the only pitcher who may be restricted tonight after 33 pitches on Sunday. Go White Sox!

Giolito vs Skubal

Akin vs Giolito. Sox going for the series sweep!

Alright boys, after winning today’s double-header the Sox look to take the series tomorrow. On the mound for the Sox is Lucas Giolito. Not much to say about Lucas other than the dude is a total stud, currently ranking 9th amongst all qualified starters with a 1.80 FIP and sitting in the 90th percentile for wxOBA. If he can get his slider back to its 2020 form, he’ll have a legit shot at the AL Cy Young award. Regardless, I fully expect him to continue his strong start to the season tomorrow. For the Red Sox, it will be Nathan Eovaldi making the start. Eovaldi has a five pitch arsenal, relying heavily on a big fastball that sits around 97 MPH but which doesn’t live up to its potential due to poor spin / carry. While most of his whiffs come on his various secondary pitches, he’s been very inconsistent with them over the years. In fact, he actually ditched his slider altogether in 2020 before bringing back a new & improved version for the 2021 season. This pitch in particular has Nathan off to a hot start, posting a 2.41 FIP and a xwOBA in the 87th percentile. It will be interesting to see how the Sox fare against this version of Eovaldi. Only six of our hitters have faced Nathan, but none more than eight times. Grandal, Abreu, & Eaton have all been successful in small samples and should all be in the lineup tomorrow. Moncada does have a bomb off Eovaldi in his only plate appearance, but will be on the bench tomorrow for Lamb who is 0-2 in career against Nathan. No matter who is in the lineup tomorrow, the key for the offense is maintaining discipline and to punish any mistakes he makes. Eovaldi isn’t going to walk a lot of guys, so we can’t afford to do him any favors and chase shit out of the zone. If we can avoid that, I think we’ll score enough runs to win tomorrow and take the series. Let’s fucking go!!!

LET’S FUCKING GO!

Let's take this series!

My last Opening Day thread was in 2016, a 4-3 win in Oakland. Let's ignore the rest of that season, we want good vibes here. I can't remember the last time I actually expected us to make the playoffs. No matter how/if we get there, these next few months will be fun. Buckle up

Good article here. I'll be nice with sampling. https://theathletic.com/842154/2019/02/28/lucas-giolito-is-back-in-the-lab-trying-to-start-a-prove-it-season-on-the-right-foot/ Behold, what gio looked like last year. The glove goes around laterally, which he says he struggled to maintain and caused him to go off balance, as we certainly saw. Now, I can't embed what is showing up for his new motion, but here is his description. the good and bad: good luck to the adam engel of pitching.

https://theathletic.com/788331/2019/01/29/after-getting-help-in-his-rehab-from-lucas-giolito-michael-kopech-is-dedicating-this-year-to-being-unapologetically-myself/ This article is about both Giolito and Kopech. Gio is taking Kopech under his wing for the TJS rehab process, along with Gio's HS buddy and teammate Max Fried. If you have a subscription, I suggest giving this a read, as Giolito is watching video of himself last year and when he was at his best. He talks about his delivery being out of sync due to having his arm behind his body(Textbook example of flying open) and what he's doing in his offseason training to correct the issue. This begs the question: What do you need to see from Lucas Giolito in 2019 to give him another year in the rotation?

6:10, NBCSC Giolito vs Gonsalves (debut) make up of 4/15 game but they wore 42 in June