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Yearnin' for Yermin

Trading Q vs trading Sale

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 10:07 AM)
Trade both if you trade one.

 

Q for a King's Ransom

Sale for an Emperor's Ransom

 

I agree with this post. If you trade Sale or Q you trade everyone on the 25 man roster not named Anderson, Rodon & Fulmer and you look to contend in 3 years.

 

 

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QUOTE (WBWSF @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 04:00 PM)
1)Trading Chris Sale would be the biggest PR blunder since the White Flag Trade. It took years for White Sox fans to forget about that trade. Trading Quintana would also be a PR disaster. .

2) After starting off 23-10 this season, did anybody see this coming? It's obvious to most people that the White Sox are going to be sellers this year and not contend for the 2016 Playoffs.

 

What kind of PR move is not winning a playoff game in 8 years?

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You know, there's a good argument for moving Sale over Quintana. My main thought is you can keep Quintana longer at less per year and he is only barely worse than Sale as a player. But I think other teams would be willing to trade MUCH more for Sale due to his name recognition.

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QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 06:51 PM)
You know, there's a good argument for moving Sale over Quintana. My main thought is you can keep Quintana longer at less per year and he is only barely worse than Sale as a player. But I think other teams would be willing to trade MUCH more for Sale due to his name recognition.

 

This is the camp I am in. Restock the larder with Sale (and others) and build the staff around Q.

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QUOTE (daggins @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 04:54 PM)
This is the camp I am in. Restock the larder with Sale (and others) and build the staff around Q.

I am in the same boat.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 07:05 PM)
I am in the same boat.

I'm with you and daggins. The right haul for Sale should bring back enough talent to help the team now and in the future while keeping Q to head the rotation.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 11:30 AM)
I don't think anyone has replied to this yet, but let's answer this and I'm going to use Danks's number exactly. Assuming the options are picked up, Sale has $40 million over the next 3 years on his deal. If you tried to offer him 5/$60, you'd be asking him to commit to the following 2 seasons at $10 million per. Fair market value for those 2 years as of right now is >$30 million. If you offered Sale 5/$110 right now, while tearing up his deal as of the start of the offseason, he should still turn it down because he's a $200 million contract pitcher right now.

 

After this year, Jose Quintana has 4 years and ~$37 million remaining on his deal (some things kick in depending on where his arb status would have been). Offering him 5/$60 is adding 1 year at $23 million to his deal. I'd do that if he would and I think it would be silly for him to do that. He'll be 31 when his current contract ends, so if you start talking about adding >$25 million value seasons onto the end, that would be a sensible thing for him to accept.

 

I do wonder if we'll ever see a team that has a "Sale-like" pitcher start offering to just add $35 million guaranteed seasons onto that guy's contract one at a time every year he stays healthy to see what happens. Keeps FA multiple years away and loads up that contract more gradually. That would be a contract innovation I'd contribute.

 

With Sale if healthy his last 3 years are $12M, $12.5M , and $13.5M = 38. I threw out 4/60-75 but you changed it to 5 /60. So actually if it was 4/75 he could have a gradual salary increase from $13.5M in the last year of his current deal 2019 to ,$15M in 2020, $17.5M in 2021, $20M in 2022, and $23M in 2022. I know that is still a vast underpay but if you signed him to that fairly soon that guarantees the money for age 31-34 seasons when there is still 7 more years ( 3 on current contract 4 on my proposed one) to have an injury. Just as before you trade the security of a guaranteed payday for the risk of injury and or sudden decline.

 

So you would also have to fix the numbers for Q.

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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 06:19 PM)
I'm with you and daggins. The right haul for Sale should bring back enough talent to help the team now and in the future while keeping Q to head the rotation.

 

That Kings Ransom they talked about is what I might expect with Sale having 1 year of control left. He's got 3. I want 6 guys , 2 for each year of control because you know damn well 3 will flop and maybe 2 of the remaining 3 become good ballplayers . Odds of getting a superstar are very low.

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I think if you trade Sale, you may as well move Q as well since this team is gonna suck for a while.

 

It's more likely they trade Q and keep Sale, IMO. But I doubt that happens either. Besides those 2, Rodon, Anderson, Eaton and Jones everyone should be on the table - just don't think you're going to get anything earth shattering back, and are likely punting 2017 by doing it.

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Maybe Hahn will fool us and trade Carlos Rodon for some hitting. I would like to think he would bring something decent in return. I would rather see Rodon traded than Sale or Quintana.

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QUOTE (WBWSF @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 11:02 AM)
Maybe Hahn will fool us and trade Carlos Rodon for some hitting. I would like to think he would bring something decent in return. I would rather see Rodon traded than Sale or Quintana.

 

He should be able to bring back as equally as touted bat, I would think.

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I know it's a popular idea in theory right now, especially in the moment with the team being so terrible, but I just don't see the "king's ransom" theory converting over into reality. I can't see any team actually ponying up the actual, sky-high, ridiculous market price it would take to acquire Sale. Because, to be fair to what he's worht, talent-wise, contract-wise and everything, it would be a nearly unprecedented haul. IMO, a fair Sale trade works better in theory than it would in practice. Thus, I wouldn't "shop" Sale or try to negotiate trades or anything. I would set a take-it-or-leave-it package, and just keep him when/if it's not met.

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 01:45 AM)
With Sale if healthy his last 3 years are $12M, $12.5M , and $13.5M = 38. I threw out 4/60-75 but you changed it to 5 /60. So actually if it was 4/75 he could have a gradual salary increase from $13.5M in the last year of his current deal 2019 to ,$15M in 2020, $17.5M in 2021, $20M in 2022, and $23M in 2022. I know that is still a vast underpay but if you signed him to that fairly soon that guarantees the money for age 31-34 seasons when there is still 7 more years ( 3 on current contract 4 on my proposed one) to have an injury. Just as before you trade the security of a guaranteed payday for the risk of injury and or sudden decline.

 

So you would also have to fix the numbers for Q.

 

Just a small addendum. Sale's 2019 option has already risen to $15 million due to a clause in his contract that was triggered by his 3rd place Cy Young finish two years ago. If he wins a Cy Young in the next 3 seasons that option jumps to $16 million. Quintana has the same clause in his contract as well.

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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 08:41 AM)
Their "value" isn't helping this team win and there's no help coming from the minors. We need to figure out how to get 4-5 good young position players infused into this team, and like it or not Sale and Q represent the only chance of getting that

 

 

You would think that would have happened at some point under KW\Hahn\Bell. There were Tiger fans upset over the Sox getting Avi out of the Peavy trade. My question on him was he an overrated prospect or was it the lack of development on the Sox part.

 

Scouting is beyond Matt Millen terrible. The team consistently loses to 5+ ERA pitchers they never seen. Too many players called from the minors don't just make rookie mistakes, they make I don't know how to play baseball mistakes. The Sox do fine with pitching prospects which could be a great reason to trade a guy like Sale but I don't really trust this organization to evaluate talent when it comes to giving up a cost controlled guy like Sale or Q.

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QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 11:51 AM)
I know it's a popular idea in theory right now, especially in the moment with the team being so terrible, but I just don't see the "king's ransom" theory converting over into reality. I can't see any team actually ponying up the actual, sky-high, ridiculous market price it would take to acquire Sale. Because, to be fair to what he's worht, talent-wise, contract-wise and everything, it would be a nearly unprecedented haul. IMO, a fair Sale trade works better in theory than it would in practice. Thus, I wouldn't "shop" Sale or try to negotiate trades or anything. I would set a take-it-or-leave-it package, and just keep him when/if it's not met.

 

That's a GM's way of saying they are not trading a player. I'll bet there have been plenty of offers on Sale for quite some time.

 

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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 09:02 AM)
That Kings Ransom they talked about is what I might expect with Sale having 1 year of control left. He's got 3. I want 6 guys , 2 for each year of control because you know damn well 3 will flop and maybe 2 of the remaining 3 become good ballplayers . Odds of getting a superstar are very low.

 

That's why they need better scouting and development.

 

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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jul 21, 2016 -> 07:41 AM)
Their "value" isn't helping this team win and there's no help coming from the minors. We need to figure out how to get 4-5 good young position players infused into this team, and like it or not Sale and Q represent the only chance of getting that

 

Yep I agree, have to part with one of them because this is a below .500 team with both because this organization does a lousy job of drafting and developing positoin players. Almost all the best position players on this team came here from a trade and that trade normally involved the Sox parting with a pitcher except in the Frazier trade.

 

Before you trade Q, team has to make a bid for Rich Hill, he's the best starting pitcher on a losing team that is out of the race in all of MLB. He's 9-3 with a 2.25 in 14 starts. Has the 2nd lowest ERA in the AL among starters with 14 or more games pitched. He's a FA after this year, so Oakland will want young position players that they can coach up like Saladino & A Garcia.

 

With all the salary that is coming off the payroll this year (Danks $15M, Latos $3M, likely Morneau $1m, the Garcia $1M buyout (last year's starting SS) Rollins $2M) plus the $13M more that fell into ownership's lap when the DH who couldn't hit decided to retire a year early. That is at least $35M and it could be more if SHields decides to opt out of his contract after this year, which would put another $10M into ownership's hands. That is a HUGE amount of $. Trade for Hill, offer him 2 years at $13-$15M. That gives you the winningest pitcher in MLB and the #2 in ERA among AL starters as your #2 starter.

 

Q should bring back a boat load of talent as the mets roster is in shables, the Dodgers Roster is in shambles and the Brewers have a bunch of good postion players who hit well but have no starting pitching. Q needs to bring back 2 top line position players who hit well plus some prospects at the very least.

 

Signing Hill will make this team better for 2017 even if no other trades happen because ownership will have a boatload of $ they can invest in the farm system and sign at least 1 quality FA.

 

Thoughts?

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If a package for Sale from Red Sox includes Jackie Bradley Jr. and Yoan Moncado with a few other pieces than you just take it. Moncado is my mind is the best prospect in the game and Bradley Jr. could play an above average outfield hitting with an OPS of 850 or higher. The front end of that package would probably be the best out there.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 02:17 PM)
Why would the Red Sox trade their All Star CF when they're in the middle of a playoff race?

 

 

Rabbit have you been hearing anything.. who do you think we are looking/shopping to move within the next week realistically

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Quintana is underrated and would most likely not garner equal value to his worth in a trade but he would be the safer trade.

 

Sale is the Ace lights out wow factor pitcher. You trade him it is headline news if the trade fails it becomes white flag memorable.

 

Quintana holds value to GM's and teams but to the casual fan and media he is a good pitcher and thus safer trade in the big picture. If that trade blows up, it is a little bigger of a fail than the Peavy trade but would not appear as franchise altering than a Sale failure.

 

Thus I think Quintana goes for a major league ready bat......one that with this organization will have no OBP ability and suck in 18 months similar to Avi Garcia.

 

Avi Garcia sucks.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 10:09 AM)
Just a small addendum. Sale's 2019 option has already risen to $15 million due to a clause in his contract that was triggered by his 3rd place Cy Young finish two years ago. If he wins a Cy Young in the next 3 seasons that option jumps to $16 million. Quintana has the same clause in his contract as well.

 

Thanks. Guess they didn't update the details of his contract on his Baseball Reference page.

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The bad thing about trading just one of our aces for MLB ready bats is that, great, offense should be better, but now you have a horrible rotation

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jul 22, 2016 -> 10:10 PM)
The bad thing about trading just one of our aces for MLB ready bats is that, great, offense should be better, but now you have a horrible rotation

I have way more faith in this organization drafting pitchers than I do in them drafting positional talent.

 

You're immediately writing off two highly sought after guys in Fulmer and Rodon, which is possible, but they're both so young.

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Why is this presented as an either/or question? If you're going to blow it up, BLOW IT UP. In today's market, it seems like every team is trying to simultaneously compete and develop a strong minor league system thanks to the two wild card system, but if the White Sox are truly tired of being "mired in mediocrity" as Hahn put it, then they need to pick a direction and stick with it. That means if they plan to sell everything off, they need to sell everything off. They did this in 2013, but that team was so bad that "everything" didn't consist of much, and still wound up yielding most of the talent the team has today. So, if they're going to rebuild, they need to do it right this time. Trade Sale, Q, Shields, Gonzalez, Abreu, Lawrie, Frazier, Cabrera, Eaton, Robertson, Jones, even Jackson, Avila, and Navarro if you can get anything for them. Bring the Charlotte Knights to MLB, get several high draft picks in a row, and leverage all the talent you get from trades and the draft into a competitive team realistically by 2019. It gives Anderson and Rodon all the time they need to get seasoned and be the leaders of the team, gives the team time to determine if Fulmer can start and Collins can catch, and gives the team a HUGE budget for the draft and LatAm signings. If most things broke right, this strategy would lead to a short term and long term competitive team by the goal date.

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I would rather keep Q and deal Sale.

 

1. Sale is going to bring back a larger haul in a trade.

2. I believe Q has a much better chance to pitch well into his 30's than does Sale. His style seems to be built for longevity more like a Maddux than a Verlander.

3. I think Sale is a higher risk to sustain a career altering injury, based on mechanics and DL time in their careers.

4. I think the package that Sale would bring back could make the team competitive while Q is still under his current contract.

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