It's that time of year again...2016 edition

[flavum]

Probably 6th at best, 13th at worst. If they play the last 54 like the did the previous 54, they'll finish 75-87. Nine teams are projected to finish worse than that, so it looks like they'll be on the bubble. My guess is they'll get to that final week at home vs the Rays and Twins, with Sale potentially starting two games for 20 wins, and Quintana maybe also in the Cy race, and they'll finish with 77-79 wins by having a hot last week between two irrelevant teams. 12th pick.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Here is the thing though, we lose the tie breaker to the Phillies, Brewers, Braves, Reds, Padres, and A's. So we need to beat all of them by 0.5 games or more to draft ahead of them.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

The 6-year WAR difference between 3-7 and 8-15 is 0.16. That might as well be 0. That tells me that a 3 pick and a 15 pick are functionally identical. I know that's not completely true, but that's the way the writer chose to group the information. And that's the range we're talking about with the Sox this year.

 

Here's average bWAR by pick for drafts from 1991-2010. Unfortunately it's career WAR and not 6-year WAR, but I don't think that dilutes the point too much.

 

Pick / Avg WAR

01 22.3

02 13.9

03 10.4

04 06.8

05 15.8

06 11.8

07 13.2

08 10.9

09 09.7

10 10.1

11 09.6

12 12.8

13 13.8

14 09.3

15 11.2

16 10.6

17 11.8

18 02.2

19 05.5

20 13.3

21 04.9

22 07.6

23 08.5

24 02.9

25 06.6

26 01.4

27 02.0

28 05.3

29 09.5

30 02.0

 

There's a downward slope to be sure, but once you get past the top spots, it doesn't matter that much until about 20th. Teams have done just as well picking 17th as they have picking 16th as they have picking 10th. I'm sure the differences by pick are even less pronounced in later rounds.

 

I would rather have a higher pick because the extra money is good, but I'm not actively rooting for it. I can't sit there while I watch a game and think, "I hope Tim Anderson drives in Eaton and Saladino on a dinger but then Tommy Kahnle blows the lead." That's too much work. Good players pop up everywhere in the draft and that's what I choose to focus on.

 

As far as getting top-10 protection, even that has less meaning for me this year. Is there anyone in their right mind who wants the Sox to sign a guy with a qualifying offer in 2017?

 

Very interesting. Thanks for posting this.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

With the Sox loss tonight, they take over the 11th pick.

 

2.5 GB of the Phillies for 10th

12 GB of the Braves for the 1st pick

Edited August 8, 2016 by ChiliIrishHammock24

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

With the Sox loss tonight, they still have the 11th pick.

 

2.5 GB of the Phillies for the 10th pick

12 GB of the Braves for the 1st pick.

[Bob Sacamano]

With the Sox loss tonight, they still have the 11th pick.

 

2.5 GB of the Phillies for the 10th pick

12 GB of the Braves for the 1st pick.

 

Thanks for updates. I realize I could Google reverse standings but I'm usually already on this bored when I open up my Internet browser on my phone (keep like 4 tabs open at once for various interests haha).

[greg775]

I have a question for those on the board who want us to lose every game to get a better draft pick, the best possible draft pick. ...

Would you be in favor of shutting down Sale and Q, even Robertson, the rest of the season? Why should they pitch the last two weeks of August and four weeks of September and risk injury or wear and tear? We are out of the race for sure. I would think you draftniks would prefer Sale and Q and Robertson simply sit and save their arms for next year. Just as you say there's no plausible reason for us to win any more games, there's equally no plausible reason for Sale and Q to risk injury in meaningless games.

 

Please answer the question for me ... to those who want us to lose games ... should Sale, Q and even Robertson sit the rest of the season because they are virtually meaningless games and they are pitchers we want healthy as we try again next year?

Edited August 14, 2016 by greg775

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I have a question for those on the board who want us to lose every game to get a better draft pick, the best possible draft pick. ...

Would you be in favor of shutting down Sale and Q, even Robertson, the rest of the season? Why should they pitch the last two weeks of August and four weeks of September and risk injury or wear and tear? We are out of the race for sure. I would think you draftniks would prefer Sale and Q and Robertson simply sit and save their arms for next year. Just as you say there's no plausible reason for us to win any more games, there's equally no plausible reason for Sale and Q to risk injury in meaningless games.

 

Please answer the question for me ... to those who want us to lose games ... should Sale, Q and even Robertson sit the rest of the season because they are virtually meaningless games and they are pitchers we want healthy as we try again next year?

 

No.

[greg775]

No.

Why not? These games are meaningless and we need Sale and Q for next season and we want to lose to get better draft pick. So why not?

[caulfield12]

Why not? These games are meaningless and we need Sale and Q for next season and we want to lose to get better draft pick. So why not?

 

With Robertson, it wouldn't hurt to give him 7-10 days' rest and give Burdi or Jones some save chances, if that's legitimately the plan for next year.

 

If you sit Q and Sale for that long, it would make it really difficult for either of them to pitch into September and any possible postseason in 2017, not to mention it would be totally unfair to the credibility of the playoff race to just go with AA/AAA ptching the remainder of this season.

Edited August 14, 2016 by caulfield12

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Why not? These games are meaningless and we need Sale and Q for next season and we want to lose to get better draft pick. So why not?

 

Because 1) you owe it to fans to play your best players, 2) They are trade candidates, unless you feel like their value is over-inflated and you don't to hurt that value, but allowing them to throw 200+ IP helps prove durability in trade value, and 3) they are both award eligible and I would love to see them get that recognition.

 

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

With the White Sox loss tonight, they still have the 12th pick.

 

1 GB of the Rockies for the 11th pick (Assuming game is rained out, 0.5 if Rockies win, 1.5 GB if Rockies lose)

1.5 GB of the Phillies for the 10th pick.

14.5 GB of the Braves for the 1st pick.

[kitekrazy]

I have a question for those on the board who want us to lose every game to get a better draft pick, the best possible draft pick. ...

Would you be in favor of shutting down Sale and Q, even Robertson, the rest of the season? Why should they pitch the last two weeks of August and four weeks of September and risk injury or wear and tear? We are out of the race for sure. I would think you draftniks would prefer Sale and Q and Robertson simply sit and save their arms for next year. Just as you say there's no plausible reason for us to win any more games, there's equally no plausible reason for Sale and Q to risk injury in meaningless games.

 

Please answer the question for me ... to those who want us to lose games ... should Sale, Q and even Robertson sit the rest of the season because they are virtually meaningless games and they are pitchers we want healthy as we try again next year?

 

Dumbest thing ever in professional sport. Call it the Strasburg syndrome.

[kitekrazy]

Because 1) you owe it to fans to play your best players, 2) They are trade candidates, unless you feel like their value is over-inflated and you don't to hurt that value, but allowing them to throw 200+ IP helps prove durability in trade value, and 3) they are both award eligible and I would love to see them get that recognition.

 

You also owe it to the players.

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

You also owe it to the players.

 

Well right, but I was answering his question from a fans perspective.

[greg775]

Dumbest thing ever in professional sport. Call it the Strasburg syndrome.

Yes but the draftniks want us to lose every game. So why don't those same draftniks want to rest Sale, Q and Robertson? I don't get it. You want us to lose but this could help the team even more in the future than getting a better draft pick.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Yes but the draftniks want us to lose every game. So why don't those same draftniks want to rest Sale, Q and Robertson? I don't get it. You want us to lose but this could help the team even more in the future than getting a better draft pick.

 

I guess I'll just copy and paste my reply until you figure it out?

 

Because 1) you owe it to fans to play your best players, 2) They are trade candidates, unless you feel like their value is over-inflated and you don't to hurt that value, but allowing them to throw 200+ IP helps prove durability in trade value, and 3) they are both award eligible and I would love to see them get that recognition.

 

[greg775]

I guess I'll just copy and paste my reply until you figure it out?

You said you owe it to the fans to play your best players. But the fans will benefit the following season. This season means nothing. It's over. Sit Sale the final six weeks and he'll be so ready next spring. Same with Q. Why pitch him? The fans don't want to see him get no run support. It'd be better to just rest him.

Meanwhile, other guys get to pitch, and lose, and again, it helps get a better draft pick which the draftniks want even though many of our picks have been busts. Frankly it'd be smart to rest these players for the reason I suggested: Sale, Q, Robertson, Rodon, Shields, Abreu, Eaton. Send Avi to the minors to work on his game and ditto Anderson to learn how to take more pitches.

I don't think the fans would care at all. This season is beyond fans caring. Anybody coming out to the Cell will be coming out no matter who is playing for the Sox. Everybody benefits. The draft people will be happy and the ones who think we can contend next year will be happy we are resting Sale and Q.

Edited August 17, 2016 by greg775

[Bob Sacamano]

Rebuild or not, Morneau belongs on this team next year. Although he may look to play for a contender first.

[MEANS]

oh Greg......lol troll game is on point.

[SCCWS]

You said you owe it to the fans to play your best players. But the fans will benefit the following season. This season means nothing. It's over. Sit Sale the final six weeks and he'll be so ready next spring. Same with Q. Why pitch him? The fans don't want to see him get no run support. It'd be better to just rest him.

Meanwhile, other guys get to pitch, and lose, and again, it helps get a better draft pick which the draftniks want even though many of our picks have been busts. Frankly it'd be smart to rest these players for the reason I suggested: Sale, Q, Robertson, Rodon, Shields, Abreu, Eaton. Send Avi to the minors to work on his game and ditto Anderson to learn how to take more pitches.

I don't think the fans would care at all. This season is beyond fans caring. Anybody coming out to the Cell will be coming out no matter who is playing for the Sox. Everybody benefits. The draft people will be happy and the ones who think we can contend next year will be happy we are resting Sale and Q.

 

Why not send Sale Rodon and Q down to Charlotte and see if they can experience winning the International League championship. Q might actually get some run support down there.............................

 

[Balta1701]

You said you owe it to the fans to play your best players. But the fans will benefit the following season. This season means nothing. It's over. Sit Sale the final six weeks and he'll be so ready next spring. Same with Q. Why pitch him? The fans don't want to see him get no run support. It'd be better to just rest him.

Meanwhile, other guys get to pitch, and lose, and again, it helps get a better draft pick which the draftniks want even though many of our picks have been busts. Frankly it'd be smart to rest these players for the reason I suggested: Sale, Q, Robertson, Rodon, Shields, Abreu, Eaton. Send Avi to the minors to work on his game and ditto Anderson to learn how to take more pitches.

I don't think the fans would care at all. This season is beyond fans caring. Anybody coming out to the Cell will be coming out no matter who is playing for the Sox. Everybody benefits. The draft people will be happy and the ones who think we can contend next year will be happy we are resting Sale and Q.

Well, with Sale and Quintana, I think the point from last year still stands - pitchers need to work. We've said this 2 years in a row now - what would Sale's status be if we'd shut him down at 150 innings last year and then now were thinking of doing that again this year? Even if you just do it one year...you've left the guy in a position where when he is traded and finally is on a competitive team, he'll be in uncharted territory when going past 200 innings. With Sale seemingly becoming a first half pitcher who becomes inconsistent later in the season, working him out seems to have some benefit.

 

Secondly, the union wouldn't allow that. Guys get money based on counting stats - hits, HR, RBI. If you tried to shut down multiple players with no injury reason, you are costing those guys money and you'll face a union grievance. You might be able to get away with it for one guy, but a systematic move is going to get you into trouble.

 

Third...baseball's calendar doesn't help you here. If you wanted to send ANderson and Avi down...the minor league season ends in what, 2 weeks? Guys get called up because the minor league seasons are over and the teams want them to get more work. So, if you want Avi and Anderson to keep getting at bats, the only place for that to hpapen is in the big leagues.

 

Finally, MLB doesn't have the "inactives" part of the roster like the NBA or NFL do - if you tried to shut guys down, you'd still have them in the dugout every day, on your roster, and you can't easily replace them. Once rosters expand you'd have enough players to make that work, but you coudln't make that move until September 1.

[flavum]

If the 10th pick matters, then losing 3 or 4 to the Phillies would help.

 

Still expect 11 or 12, finishing 77-85.

[Rowand44]

Well, with Sale and Quintana, I think the point from last year still stands - pitchers need to work. We've said this 2 years in a row now - what would Sale's status be if we'd shut him down at 150 innings last year and then now were thinking of doing that again this year? Even if you just do it one year...you've left the guy in a position where when he is traded and finally is on a competitive team, he'll be in uncharted territory when going past 200 innings. With Sale seemingly becoming a first half pitcher who becomes inconsistent later in the season, working him out seems to have some benefit.

 

Secondly, the union wouldn't allow that. Guys get money based on counting stats - hits, HR, RBI. If you tried to shut down multiple players with no injury reason, you are costing those guys money and you'll face a union grievance. You might be able to get away with it for one guy, but a systematic move is going to get you into trouble.

 

Third...baseball's calendar doesn't help you here. If you wanted to send ANderson and Avi down...the minor league season ends in what, 2 weeks? Guys get called up because the minor league seasons are over and the teams want them to get more work. So, if you want Avi and Anderson to keep getting at bats, the only place for that to hpapen is in the big leagues.

 

Finally, MLB doesn't have the "inactives" part of the roster like the NBA or NFL do - if you tried to shut guys down, you'd still have them in the dugout every day, on your roster, and you can't easily replace them. Once rosters expand you'd have enough players to make that work, but you coudln't make that move until September 1.

Basically all of this.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

You said you owe it to the fans to play your best players. But the fans will benefit the following season. This season means nothing. It's over. Sit Sale the final six weeks and he'll be so ready next spring. Same with Q. Why pitch him? The fans don't want to see him get no run support. It'd be better to just rest him.

Meanwhile, other guys get to pitch, and lose, and again, it helps get a better draft pick which the draftniks want even though many of our picks have been busts. Frankly it'd be smart to rest these players for the reason I suggested: Sale, Q, Robertson, Rodon, Shields, Abreu, Eaton. Send Avi to the minors to work on his game and ditto Anderson to learn how to take more pitches.

I don't think the fans would care at all. This season is beyond fans caring. Anybody coming out to the Cell will be coming out no matter who is playing for the Sox. Everybody benefits. The draft people will be happy and the ones who think we can contend next year will be happy we are resting Sale and Q.

 

Feel free to comment on the other 67% of my points too...